Statistics sunspots and settlement: Influences on sum of probability curves

Large data sets of radiocarbon dates are becoming a more common feature of archaeological research. The sheer numbers of radiocarbon dates produced, however, raise issues of representation and interpretation. This paper presents a methodology which both reduces the visible impact of dating fluctuations, but also takes into consideration the influence of the underlying radiocarbon calibration curve. By doing so, it may be possible to distinguish between periods of human activity in early medieval Ireland and the statistical tails produced by radiocarbon calibration.

Making heads or tails of probability:an experiment with random generators

The equiprobability bias is a tendency for individuals to think of probabilistic events as 'equiprobable' by nature, and to judge outcomes that occur with different probabilities as equally likely. The equiprobability bias has been repeatedly found to be related to formal education in statistics, and it is claimed to be based on a misunderstanding of the concept of randomness.

The addition of gemtuzumab ozogamicin to low-dose Ara-C improves remission rate but does not significantly prolong survival in older patients with acute myeloid leukaemia:results from the LRF AML14 and NCRI AML16 pick-a-winner comparison

The treatment of older patients with acute myeloid leukaemia, who are not considered suitable for conventional intensive therapy, is unsatisfactory. Low-dose Ara-C(LDAC) has been established as superior to best supportive care, but only benefits the few patients who enter complete remission. Alternative or additional treatments are required to improve the situation. This randomised trial compared the addition of the immunoconjugate, gemtuzumab ozogamicin (GO), at a dose of 5 mg on day 1 of each course of LDAC, with the intention of improving the remission rate and consequently survival. Between June 2004 and June 2010, 495 patients entered the randomisation. The addition of GO significantly improved the remission rate (30% vs 17%; odds ratio(OR) 0.48 (0.32-0.73); P=0.006), but not the 12 month overall survival (25% vs 27%). The reason for the induction benefit failing to improve OS was two-fold: survival of patients in the LDAC arm who did not enter remission and survival after relapse were both superior in the LDAC arm. Although the addition of GO to LDAC doubled the remission rate it did not improve overall survival. Maintaining remission in older patients remains elusive.

Investigating the Potential Impact of Four-dimensional Computed Tomography (4DCT) on Toxicity, Outcomes and Dose Escalation for Radical Lung Cancer Radiotherapy

AIMS: To investigate the potential dosimetric and clinical benefits predicted by using four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) compared with 3DCT in the planning of radical radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS:
Twenty patients were planned using free breathing 4DCT then retrospectively delineated on three-dimensional helical scan sets (3DCT). Beam arrangement and total dose (55 Gy in 20 fractions) were matched for 3D and 4D plans. Plans were compared for differences in planning target volume (PTV) geometrics and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for organs at risk using dose volume histograms. Tumour control probability and NTCP were modelled using the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model. This was compared with a predictive clinical algorithm (Maastro), which is based on patient characteristics, including: age, performance status, smoking history, lung function, tumour staging and concomitant chemotherapy, to predict survival and toxicity outcomes. Potential therapeutic gains were investigated by applying isotoxic dose escalation to both plans using constraints for mean lung dose (18 Gy), oesophageal maximum (70 Gy) and spinal cord maximum (48 Gy).

RESULTS:
4DCT based plans had lower PTV volumes, a lower dose to organs at risk and lower predicted NTCP rates on LKB modelling (P < 0.006). The clinical algorithm showed no difference for predicted 2-year survival and dyspnoea rates between the groups, but did predict for lower oesophageal toxicity with 4DCT plans (P = 0.001). There was no correlation between LKB modelling and the clinical algorithm for lung toxicity or survival. Dose escalation was possible in 15/20 cases, with a mean increase in dose by a factor of 1.19 (10.45 Gy) using 4DCT compared with 3DCT plans.

CONCLUSIONS:
4DCT can theoretically improve therapeutic ratio and dose escalation based on dosimetric parameters and mathematical modelling. However, when individual characteristics are incorporated, this gain may be less evident in terms of survival and dyspnoea rates. 4DCT allows potential for isotoxic dose escalation, which may lead to improved local control and better overall survival.