Assessment of virtual design and manufacturing techniques for fibre reinforced composite materials

Virtual tools are commonly used nowadays to optimize product design and manufacturing process of fibre reinforced composite materials. The present work focuses on two areas of interest to forecast the part performance and the production process particularities. The first part proposes a multi-physical optimization tool to support the concept stage of a composite part. The strategy is based on the strategic handling of information and, through a single control parameter, is able to evaluate the effects of design variations throughout all these steps in parallel. The second part targets the resin infusion process and the impact of thermal effects. The numerical and experimental approach allowed the identificationof improvement opportunities regarding the implementation of algorithms in commercially available simulation software.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Statistical methods for examining genetic influences of resistance to anti-epileptic drugs

It is generally accepted that genetics may be an important factor in explaining the variation between patients’ responses to certain drugs. However, identification and confirmation of the responsible genetic variants is proving to be a challenge in many cases. A number of difficulties that maybe encountered in pursuit of these variants, such as non-replication of a true effect, population structure and selection bias, can be mitigated or at least reduced by appropriate statistical methodology. Another major statistical challenge facing pharmacogenetics studies is trying to detect possibly small polygenic effects using large volumes of genetic data, while controlling the number of false positive signals. Here we review statistical design and analysis options available for investigations of genetic resistance to anti-epileptic drugs.

Opportunities for reduction in acute toxicity testing via improved design

The conventional method for assessing acute oral toxicity (OECD Test Guideline 401) was designed to identify the median lethal dose (LD50), using the death of animals as an endpoint. Introduced as an alternative method (OECD Test Guideline 420), the Fixed Dose Procedure (FDP) relies on the observation of clear signs of toxicity, uses fewer animals and causes less suffering. More recently, the Acute Toxic Class method and the Up-and-Down Procedure have also been adopted as OECD test guidelines. Both of these methods also use fewer animals than the conventional method, although they still use death as an endpoint. Each of the three new methods incorporates a sequential dosing procedure, which results in increased efficiency. In 1999, with a view to replacing OECD Test Guideline 401, the OECD requested that the three new test guidelines be updated. This was to bring them in line with the regulatory needs of all OECD Member Countries, provide further reductions in the number of animals used, and introduce refinements to reduce the pain and distress experienced by the animals. This paper describes a statistical modelling approach for the evaluation of acute oral toxicity tests, by using the revised FDP for illustration. Opportunities for further design improvements are discussed.

Mixture models for capture-recapture count data

The contribution investigates the problem of estimating the size of a population, also known as the missing cases problem. Suppose a registration system is targeting to identify all cases having a certain characteristic such as a specific disease (cancer, heart disease, ...), disease related condition (HIV, heroin use, ...) or a specific behavior (driving a car without license). Every case in such a registration system has a certain notification history in that it might have been identified several times (at least once) which can be understood as a particular capture-recapture situation. Typically, cases are left out which have never been listed at any occasion, and it is this frequency one wants to estimate. In this paper modelling is concentrating on the counting distribution, e.g. the distribution of the variable that counts how often a given case has been identified by the registration system. Besides very simple models like the binomial or Poisson distribution, finite (nonparametric) mixtures of these are considered providing rather flexible modelling tools. Estimation is done using maximum likelihood by means of the EM algorithm. A case study on heroin users in Bangkok in the year 2001 is completing the contribution.

CAMCR: Computer assisted mixture model analysis for capture-recapture count data

Population size estimation with discrete or nonparametric mixture models is considered, and reliable ways of construction of the nonparametric mixture model estimator are reviewed and set into perspective. Construction of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing distribution is done for any number of components up to the global nonparametric maximum likelihood bound using the EM algorithm. In addition, the estimators of Chao and Zelterman are considered with some generalisations of Zelterman’s estimator. All computations are done with CAMCR, a special software developed for population size estimation with mixture models. Several examples and data sets are discussed and the estimators illustrated. Problems using the mixture model-based estimators are highlighted.

Bayesian design and conduct of phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes: a tutorial

The aim of phase II single-arm clinical trials of a new drug is to determine whether it has sufficient promising activity to warrant its further development. For the last several years Bayesian statistical methods have been proposed and used. Bayesian approaches are ideal for earlier phase trials as they take into account information that accrues during a trial. Predictive probabilities are then updated and so become more accurate as the trial progresses. Suitable priors can act as pseudo samples, which make small sample clinical trials more informative. Thus patients have better chances to receive better treatments. The goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial for statisticians who use Bayesian methods for the first time or investigators who have some statistical background. In addition, real data from three clinical trials are presented as examples to illustrate how to conduct a Bayesian approach for phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes.

AT(1) receptor ligands: virtual-screening-based design with TOPP descriptors, synthesis, and biological evaluation of pyrrolidine derivatives

As a continuing effort to establish the structure-activity relationships (SARs) within the series of the angiotensin II antagonists (sartans), a pharmacophoric model was built by using novel TOPP 3D descriptors. Statistical values were satisfactory (PC4: r(2)=0.96, q(2) ((5) (random) (groups))=0.84; SDEP=0.26) and encouraged the synthesis and consequent biological evaluation of a series of new pyrrolidine derivatives. SAR together with a combined 3D quantitative SAR and high-throughput virtual screening showed that the newly synthesized 1-acyl-N-(biphenyl-4-ylmethyl)pyrrolidine-2-carboxamides may represent an interesting starting point for the design of new antihypertensive agents. In particular, biological tests performed on CHO-hAT(1) cells stably expressing the human AT(1) receptor showed that the length of the acyl chain is crucial for the receptor interaction and that the valeric chain is the optimal one.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Statistical isomorphism of three-level factional factorial designs

From a statistician's standpoint, the interesting kind of isomorphism for fractional factorial designs depends on the statistical application. Combinatorially isomorphic fractional factorial designs may have different statistical properties when factors are quantitative. This idea is illustrated by using Latin squares of order 3 to obtain fractions of the 3(3) factorial. design in 18 runs.

Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

Modulation of the fecal microflora profile and immune function by a novel trans-galactooligosaccharide mixture (B-GOS) in healthy elderly volunteers

Background: Aging is associated with reduced numbers of beneficial colonic bifidobacteria and impaired immunity. Galactooligosaccharides (GOSs) stimulate the growth of bifidobacteria in younger adults, but little is known about their effects in the elderly and their immunomodulatory capacity. Objective: We assessed the effect of a prebiotic GOS mixture (B-GOS) on immune function and fecal microflora composition in healthy elderly subjects. Design: In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover study, 44 elderly subjects were randomly assigned to receive either a placebo or the B-GOS treatment (5.5 g/d). Subjects consumed the treatments for 10 wk, and then went through a 4-wk washout period, before switching to the other treatment for the final 10 wk. Blood and fecal samples were collected at the beginning, middle (5 wk), and end of the test period. Predominant bacterial groups were quantified, and phagocytosis, natural killer (NK) cell activity, cytokine production, plasma cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol were measured. Results: B-GOS significantly increased the numbers of beneficial bacteria, especially bifidobacteria, at the expense of less beneficial groups compared with the baseline and placebo. Significant increases in phagocytosis, NK cell activity, and the production of antiinflammatory cytokine interleukin-10 (IL-10) and significant reduction in the production of proinflammatory cytokines (IL-6, IL-1 beta , and tumor necrosis factor-alpha) were also observed. B-GOS exerted no effects on total cholesterol or HDL-cholesterol production, however. Conclusions: B-GOS administration to healthy elderly persons resulted in positive effects on both the microflora composition and the immune response. Therefore, B-GOS may be a useful dietary candidate for the enhancement of gastrointestinal health and immune function in elderly persons. Am J Clin Nutr 2008; 88: 1438-46.

Dietary supplementation with a natural carotenoid mixture decreases oxidative stress

Objective: To determine whether dietary supplementation with a natural carotenoid mixture counteracts the enhancement of oxidative stress induced by consumption of fish oil. Design: A randomised double-blind crossover dietary intervention. Setting: Hugh Sinclair Unit of Human Nutrition, School of Food Biosciences, The University of Reading, Whiteknights PO Box 226, Reading RG6 6AP, UK. Subjects and intervention: A total of 32 free-living healthy nonsmoking volunteers were recruited by posters and e-mails in The University of Reading. One volunteer withdrew during the study. The volunteers consumed a daily supplement comprising capsules containing fish oil (4 x 1 g) or fish oil (4 x 1 g) containing a natural carotenoid mixture (4 x 7.6 mg) for 3 weeks in a randomised crossover design separated by a 12 week washout phase. The carotenoid mixture provided a daily intake of beta-carotene (6.0 mg), alpha-carotene (1.4 mg), lycopene (4.5 mg), bixin (11.7 mg), lutein (4.4 mg) and paprika carotenoids (2.2 mg). Blood and urine samples were collected on days 0 and 21 of each dietary period. Results: The carotenoid mixture reduced the fall in ex vivo oxidative stability of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) induced by the fish oil (P = 0.045) and it reduced the extent of DNA damage assessed by the concentration of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine in urine (P = 0.005). There was no effect on the oxidative stability of plasma ex vivo assessed by the oxygen radical absorbance capacity test. beta- Carotene, alpha-carotene, lycopene and lutein were increased in the plasma of subjects consuming the carotenoid mixture. Plasma triglyceride levels were reduced significantly more than the reduction for the fish oil control (P = 0.035), but total cholesterol, HDL and LDL levels were not significantly changed by the consumption of the carotenoid mixture. Conclusions: Consumption of the natural carotenoid mixture lowered the increase in oxidative stress induced by the fish oil as assessed by ex vivo oxidative stability of LDL and DNA degradation product in urine. The carotenoid mixture also enhanced the plasma triglyceride-lowering effect of the fish oil.

Prebiotic evaluation of a novel galactooligosaccharide mixture produced by the enzymatic activity of Bifidobacterium bifidum NCIMB 41171, in healthy humans: a randomized, double-blind, crossover, placebo-controlled intervention study

Background: Galactooligosaccharides are selectively fermented by the beneficial member of the colonic microflora contributing to the health of the host. Objective: We assessed the prebiotic potential of a novel galactooligosaccharide produced through the action of beta-galactosidases, originating from a probiotic Bifidobacterium bifidum strain, against a galactooligosaccharide produced through the action of an industrial P-galactosidase and a placebo. Design: Fifty-nine healthy human volunteers participated in this study. Initially, the effect of the matrix on the prebiotic properties of a commercially available galactooligosaccharide (7 g/d) was assessed during 7-d treatment periods with a 7-d washout period in between. During the second phase, 30 volunteers were assigned to a sequence of treatments (7 d) differing in the amount of the novel galactooligosaccharide (0, 3.6, or 7 g/d). Stools were recovered before and after each intervention, and bacteria numbers were determined by fluorescent in situ hybridization. Results: Addition of the novel galactooligosaccharide mixture significantly increased the bifidobacterial population ratio compared with the placebo (P < 0.05), whereas 7 g/d of the novel galactooligosaccharide significantly increased the bifidobacterial ratio compared with the commercial galactooligosaccharide (P < 0.05). Moreover, a significant relation (P < 0.001) between the bifidobacteria proportion and the novel galactooligosaccharide dose (0, 3.6, and 7 g/d) was observed. This relation was similar to the effect of the novel galactooligosaccharide on the prebiotic index of each dose. Conclusions: This study showed that galactooligosaccharide mixtures produced with different beta-galactosidases show different prebiotic properties and that, by using enzymes originating from bifidobacterial species, an increase in the bifidogenic properties of the prebiotic product is achievable.

Search space pruning and global optimization of multiple gravity assist trajectories with deep space manoeuvres

This paper deals with the design of optimal multiple gravity assist trajectories with deep space manoeuvres. A pruning method which considers the sequential nature of the problem is presented. The method locates feasible vectors using local optimization and applies a clustering algorithm to find reduced bounding boxes which can be used in a subsequent optimization step. Since multiple local minima remain within the pruned search space, the use of a global optimization method, such as Differential Evolution, is suggested for finding solutions which are likely to be close to the global optimum. Two case studies are presented.