The Political Economy of Information Provision in Developing Democracies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

On the new Kenyan sovereign wealth fund

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have been established in several countries to manage the revenues arising from exhaustible natural resources. SWFs allow consumption to be spread between generations, and between periods of high and low natural resource prices. In this paper the arguments for and against establishing an SWF in Kenya are considered. A first section considers the argument that Kenya is too poor to allocate oil revenues to such a fund. A second section discusses the principles underlying such a fund. A final section concludes by considering the steps that are being taken to establish a Kenyan SWF.

Climate Change or Urbanization? Impacts on a Traditional Coffee Production System in East Africa over the Last 80 Years

Global environmental changes (GEC) such as climate change (CC) and climate variability have serious impacts in the tropics, particularly in Africa. These are compounded by changes in land use/land cover, which in turn are driven mainly by economic and population growth, and urbanization. These factors create a feedback loop, which affects ecosystems and particularly ecosystem services, for example plant-insect interactions, and by consequence agricultural productivity. We studied effects of GEC at a local level, using a traditional coffee production area in greater Nairobi, Kenya. We chose coffee, the most valuable agricultural commodity worldwide, as it generates income for 100 million people, mainly in the developing world. Using the coffee berry borer, the most serious biotic threat to global coffee production, we show how environmental changes and different production systems (shaded and sun-grown coffee) can affect the crop. We combined detailed entomological assessments with historic climate records (from 1929-2011), and spatial and demographic data, to assess GEC's impact on coffee at a local scale. Additionally, we tested the utility of an adaptation strategy that is simple and easy to implement. Our results show that while interactions between CC and migration/urbanization, with its resultant landscape modifications, create a feedback loop whereby agroecosystems such as coffee are adversely affected, bio-diverse shaded coffee proved far more resilient and productive than coffee grown in monoculture, and was significantly less harmed by its insect pest. Thus, a relatively simple strategy such as shading coffee can tremendously improve resilience of agro-ecosystems, providing small-scale farmers in Africa with an easily implemented tool to safeguard their livelihoods in a changing climate.

Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa

The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.

Thermal Tolerance of the Coffee Berry Borer Hypothenemus hampei: Predictions of Climate Change Impact on a Tropical Insect Pest

Coffee is predicted to be severely affected by climate change. We determined the thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei, the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, and make inferences on the possible effects of climate change using climatic data from Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. For this, the effect of eight temperature regimes (15, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35 degrees C) on the bionomics of H. hampei was studied. Successful egg to adult development occurred between 20-30 degrees C. Using linear regression and a modified Logan model, the lower and upper thresholds for development were estimated at 14.9 and 32 degrees C, respectively. In Kenya and Colombia, the number of pest generations per year was considerably and positively correlated with the warming tolerance. Analysing 32 years of climatic data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1-2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed. Calculated data on warming tolerance and thermal safety margins of H. hampei for the three East African locations showed considerably high variability compared to the Colombian site. The model indicates that for every 1 degrees C rise in thermal optimum (T(opt)), the maximum intrinsic rate of increase (r(max)) will increase by an average of 8.5%. The effects of climate change on the further range of H. hampei distribution and possible adaption strategies are discussed. Abstracts in Spanish and French are provided as supplementary material Abstract S1 and Abstract S2.

Some biological and ecological considerations for research in the management of the fisheries of Lakes Victoria and Kyoga

There is little doubt that the exploitation of the current fisheries of Lakes Victoria and Kyoga requires close monitoring with a view to enforce adherence to prudent management practices. Many indigenous fishes have gradually disappeared from the commercial fishery of both lakes. In the Uganda portion of Lake Victoria for instance Okaronon and Wadanya (in press) have shown that:- 1. The once preponderant haplochromiine taxon ceased to feature in the commercial catches in 1979. 2. The lung-fish (Protopterus aethiopicus) which formerly contributed significantly to the commercial landings had declined to minor species status by the mid 1980s. 3. The catfishes Clarias mossambicus and Bagrus docmac, formerly major fish species, contributed insignificant quantities to the commercial fishery since the early and mid 1980s, respectively. Similar trend have been "reported in the Kenya and Tanzania portions of Lake Victoria (Bwathondi, 1985; Mainga, 1985, Witte and Goudswaard, 1985). On the other hand since their establishment all round the lake in the early to mid 1980s some introduced fishes namely Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) built up impressive stocks in Lake Victoria (Ssentongo and Welcomme, 1985, Okaronon et al. 1985; Okaronon and Wadanya, in press). Togetther with the native pelagic cyprinid Rastrineobola argentea or Dagaa/Mukene the introduced fishes have contributed unprecidented catches, stimulating vibrant commercial fisheries which have yielded significant social economic benefits to the peoples of the three states riparian to the Lake (Reynolds and Greboval, 1988; Kudhongania et al in press). The impressive landings particularly of the Nile perch and Nile tilapia have also led to rapid industrialisation of fish processing in East Africa mainly for the export market. Fish export has now the potential of a major foreign exchange enterprise in the region.

Status of the beach management units development in Uganda

Fisheries plays a significant and important part in the economy of the country contributing to foreign exchange, food security and employment creation. Lake Victoria contributes over 50% of the total annual fish catch. The purpose of fisheries management is to ensure conservation, protection, proper use, economic efficiency and equitable distribution of the fisheries resources both for the present and future generations through sustainable utilization. The earliest fisheries were mainly at the subsistence level. Fishing gear consisted of locally made basket traps, hooks and seine nets of papyrus. Fishing effort begun to increase with the introduction of more efficient flax gillnets in 1905. Fisheries management in Uganda started in 1914. Before then, the fishery was under some form of traditional management based on the do and don'ts. History shows that the Baganda had strong spiritual beliefs in respect of "god Mukasa" (god of the Lake) and these indirectly contributed to sustainable management of the lake. If a fisherman neglected to comply witt'l any of the ceremonies related to fishing he was expected to encounter a bad omen (Rev. Roscoe, 1965) However, with the introduction of the nylon gill nets, which could catch more fish, traditional management regime broke down. By 1955 the indigenous fish species like Oreochromis variabilis and Oreochromis esculentus had greatly declined in catches. Decline in catches led to introduction of poor fishing methods because of competition for fish. Government in an attempt to regulate the fishing irldustry enacted the first Fisheries Ordinance in 1951 and recruited Fisheries Officers to enforce them. The government put in place minimum net mesh-sizes and Fisheries Officers arrested fishermen without explaining the reason. This led to continued poor fishing practices. The development of government centred management systems led to increased alienation of resource users and to wilful disregard of specific regulations. The realisation of the problems faced by the central management system led to the recognition that user groups need to be actively involved in fisheries management if the systems are to be consistent with sustainable fisheries and be legitimate. Community participation in fisheries management under the Comanagement approach has been adopted in Lake Victoria including other water bodies.

Early post-fledgling survival in a fragmented population of a tropical cooperative breeding passerine

During the last years tropical forest has been a target of intense study especially due to its recent big scale destruction. Although a lot still needs to be explored, we start realizing how negative can the impact of our actions be for the ecosystem. Subsequently, the living community have been developing strategies to overcome this problem avoiding bottlenecks or even extinctions. Cooperative breeding (CB) has been recently pointed out as one of those strategies. CB is a breeding system where more than two individuals raise one brood. In most of the cases, extra individuals are offspring that delay their dispersal and independent breeding what allows them to help their parents raising their siblings in the subsequent breeding season. Such behavior is believed to be due, per example, to the lack of mates or breeding territories (ecological constraints hypothesis), a consequence of habitat fragmentation and/or disturbance. From this point, CB is easily promoted by a higher reproductive success of group vs pairs or single individuals. Accordingly, during this thesis I explore the early post-fledging survival of a cooperative breeding passerine, namely the impact of individual/habitat quality in its survival probability during the dependence period of the chicks. Our study species is the Cabanis’s greenbul (Phyllastrephus cabanisi), a medium-sized, brownish passerine, classified within the Pycnonotidae family. It is found over part of Central Africa in countries such as Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique and Kenya, inhabiting primary and secondary forests, as well as woodland of various types up to 2700m of altitude. Previous studies have concluded that PC is a facultative cooperative breeder. This study was conducted in Taita Hills (TH) at the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM), a chain of mountains running from Southeast Kenya to the South of Tanzania. TH comprises an area of 430 ha and has been suffering intense deforestation reflecting 98% forest reduction over the last 200 years. Nowadays its forest is divided in fragments and our study was based in 5of those fragments. We access the post-fledging survival through radio-telemetry. The juvenile survey was done through the breeding females in which transmitters were placed with a leg-loop technique. Ptilochronology is consider to be the study of feather growth bars and has been used to study the nutritional state of a bird. This technique considers that the feather growth rate is positively proportional to the individual capability of ingesting food and to the food availability. This technique is therefore used to infer for individual/habitat quality. Survival was lowest during the first 5 days post-fledging representing 53.3%. During the next 15 days, risk of predation decreased with only 14.3% more deceased individuals. This represents a total of only 33% survived individuals in the end of the 50 days. Our results showed yet a significant positive relationship between flock size and post-fledging survival as well as between ptilochronology values and post-fledgling survival. In practice, these imply that on this population, as bigger the flock, as greater the post fledging survival and that good habitat quality or good BF quality, will lead to a higher juvenile survival rate. We believe that CB is therefore an adaptive behaviour to the lack of mates/breeding territory originated from the mass forest destruction and disturbance. Such results confirms the critical importance of habitat quality in the post-fledging survival and, for the first time, demonstrates how flock size influences the living probability of the juveniles and therefore how it impacts the (local) population dynamics of this species. In my opinion, future research should be focus in disentangle individual and habitat quality from each other and verify which relationship exist between them. Such study will allow us to understand which factor has a stronger influence in the post-fledging survival and therefore redirect our studies in that direction. In order to confirm the negative impact of human disturbance and forest fragmentation, it would be of major relevance to compare the reproductive strategies and reproductive success of populations living in intact forests and disturbed patches.

Age, growth, tagging of tilapia spp. and reproductive biology of siluroid catfishes in Lake Victoria

This report encompasses the time period 1 September 1973 through 31 July 1975. The research Officer's tour of duty officially terminated 30 September 1975, consisting of a regular 2-year tour of duty with three month extension of contract. During this time research into age and growth of several tropical species of fishes was conducted. In addition a closely related tagging program was initiated in order to determine both growth and movements of fishes. Lastly, some effort was directed towards aspects of the basic biology of several of the siluroid catfishes. This report delineates the relative effort into and success of the various research projects; presents results of research not previously offered, summarizes findings, and makes recommendations for future research endeavour. Two annual reports along with quarterly reports up to 30 June 1975 have been produced and are on file both at Headquarters in Jinja and the Kisumu Sub-station. These only will be referred to in some instances and built upon in others. Opinions offered, conclusions drawn and recommendation given within this report are solely those of the research officer employed in an official capacity for E.A.F.F.R.O.

Lake Victoria Fisheries Service Annual Report 1959/60

The Annual report provides information on work carried out on Lake Victoria by the Lake Victoria Fisheries Service during the period 1959/60. It provides annual catch statistics, fisheries control and legislation.

Stay-green Drought Adaptation Trait Enhances Sorghum Production in Sub-tropical Australia, Central-Western India and Sub-Saharan Africa

Drought during grain filling is a common challenge for sorghum production in north-eastern Australia, central-western India, and sub-Saharan Africa. We show that the stay-green drought adaptation trait enhances sorghum grain yield under post-anthesis drought in these three regions. A positive relationship between stay-green and yield was generally found in breeding trials in north-eastern Australia that sampled 1668 unique hybrid combinations and 23 environments. Physiological studies in Australia also found that introgressing four individual stay-green (Stg1–4) quantitative trait loci (QTLs) into a senescent background reduced water demand before flowering and hence increased water supply during grain filling, resulting in higher grain yield relative to the senescent control. Studies in India found that various Stg QTLs affected both transpiration and transpiration efficiency, although these effects depended on the interaction between genetic background (S35 and R16) and individual QTLs. The yield variation unexplained by harvest index was related to transpiration efficiency in S35 (R2 = 0.29) and R16 (R2 = 0.72), and was related to total water extracted in S35 (R2 = 0.41) but not in R16. Finally, sixty-eight stay-green enriched lines were evaluated in six countries in sub-Saharan Africa during the 2013/14 season. Analysis of the data from Kenya indicates that stay-green and grain size were positively correlated at two sites: Kiboko (high yielding, r2=0.25) and Masongaleni (low yielding, r2=0.37). Together, these studies suggest that stay-green is a beneficial trait for sorghum production in the semi-arid tropics and is a consequence of traits altering the plant water budget.

Evaluating, predicting and mapping belowground carbon stores in Kenyan mangroves.

Despite covering only approximately 138,000 km2, mangroves are globally important carbon sinks with carbon density values 3 to 4 times that of terrestrial forests. A key challenge in evaluating the carbon benefits from mangrove forest conservation is the lack of rigorous spatially resolved estimates of mangrove sediment carbon stocks; most mangrove carbon is stored belowground. Previous work has focused on detailed estimations of carbon stores over relatively small areas, which has obvious limitations in terms of generality and scope of application. Most studies have focused only on quantifying the top 1m of belowground carbon (BGC). Carbon stored at depths beyond 1m, and the effects of mangrove species, location and environmental context on these stores, is poorly studied. This study investigated these variables at two sites (Gazi and Vanga in the south of Kenya) and used the data to produce a country-specific BGC predictive model for Kenya and map BGC store estimates throughout Kenya at spatial scales relevant for climate change research, forest management and REDD+ (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation). The results revealed that mangrove species was the most reliable predictor of BGC; Rhizophora muronata had the highest mean BGC with 1485.5t C ha-1. Applying the species-based predictive model to a base map of species distribution in Kenya for the year 2010 with a 2.5m2 resolution, produced an estimate of 69.41 Mt C (± 9.15 95% C.I.) for BGC in Kenyan mangroves. When applied to a 1992 mangrove distribution map, the BGC estimate was 75.65 Mt C (± 12.21 95% C.I.); an 8.3% loss in BGC stores between 1992 and 2010 in Kenya. The country level mangrove map provides a valuable tool for assessing carbon stocks and visualising the distribution of BGC. Estimates at the 2.5m2 resolution provide sufficient detail for highlighting and prioritising areas for mangrove conservation and restoration.

Investigation into the meteorological aspects of the variations in the level of Lake Victoria

The level of Lake Victoria has, since 1961, reached a height which caused serious flood damage. Already the financial implications are considerable for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. If further rises can be anticipated, expenditure on flood control measures to the tune of several million pounds sterling must be envisaged. If such rises should lead to uncontrolled discharge at the Owen Falls Dam site because of overshooting, downstream districts of Uganda and the Sudan may be seriously flooded. All this merits a thorough study, and any indication of the future behaviour of lake levels, even when associated with a low probability, must be taken into account. In these circumstances the Water Development Department of Kenya approached the East African Meteorological Department in November, 1964, on behalf of all parties concerned with the request to study the meteorological background of the Iake level variation, with a view to forecasting future behaviour.

Evaluation of approaches to estimate fish catches on Lake Victoria: a case study using CAS and frame data from Uganda

Since 2005, harmonized catch assessment surveys (CASs) have been implemented on Lake Victoria in the three riparian countries Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania to monitor the commercial fish stocks and provide their management advice. The regionally harmonized standard operating procedures for CASs have not been wholly followed due to logistical difficulties. Yet the new approaches adopted have not been documented. This study investigated the alternative approaches used to estimate fish catches on the lake with the aim of determining the most reliable one for providing management advice and also the effect of current sampling routine on the precision of catch estimates provided. The study found the currently used lake-wide approach less reliable and more biased in providing catch estimates compared to the district based approach. Noticeable differences were detected in catch estimates between different months of the year. The study recommends future analyses of CAS data collected on the lake to follow the district based approach. Future CASs should also consider seasonal variations in the sampling design by providing for replication of sampling. The SOPs need updating to document the procedures that deviate from the original sampling design.

An examination of the usefulness of single-species biomass models for the management of Lake Victoria fisheries

Nile perch (Lates niloticus), tilapia (Oreochromis spp), dagaa (Rastrineobola argentea, silver cyprinid), and haplochromines (Tribe Haplochromini) form the backbone of the commercial fishery on Lake Victoria. These fish stocks account for about 70% of the total catch in the three riparian states Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. The lake fisheries have been poorly managed, in part due to inadequate scientific analysis and management advice. The overall objective of this project was to model the stocks of the commercial fisheries of Lake Victoria with the view of determining reference points and current stock status. The Schaefer biomass model was fitted to available data for each stock (starting in the 1960s or later) in the form of landings, catch per unit effort, acoustic survey indices, and trawl survey indices. In most cases, the Schaefer model did not fit all data components very well, but attempts were made to find the best model for each stock. When the model was fitted to the Nile perch data starting from 1996, the estimated current biomass is 654 kt (95% CI 466–763); below the optimum of 692 kt and current harvest rate is 38% (33–73%), close to the optimum of 35%. At best, these can be used as tentative guidelines for the management of these fisheries. The results indicate that there have been strong multispecies interactions in the lake ecosystem. The findings from our study can be used as a baseline reference for future studies using more complex models, which could take these multispecies interactions into account.