931 resultados para State And Transition Models
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Beam-like structures are the most common components in real engineering, while single side damage is often encountered. In this study, a numerical analysis of single side damage in a free-free beam is analysed with three different finite element models; namely solid, shell and beam models for demonstrating their performance in simulating real structures. Similar to experiment, damage is introduced into one side of the beam, and natural frequencies are extracted from the simulations and compared with experimental and analytical results. Mode shapes are also analysed with modal assurance criterion. The results from simulations reveal a good performance of the three models in extracting natural frequencies, and solid model performs better than shell while shell model performs better than beam model under intact state. For damaged states, the natural frequencies captured from solid model show more sensitivity to damage severity than shell model and shell model performs similar to the beam model in distinguishing damage. The main contribution of this paper is to perform a comparison between three finite element models and experimental data as well as analytical solutions. The finite element results show a relatively well performance.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores
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I relate hours worked with taxes on consumption and labor for Portugal, France, Spain, United Kingdom and United States. From 1986 to 2001, hours per worker in Portugal decreased from 35.1 to 32.6. With the parameters for Portugal, the model predicts hours worked in 2001 with an error of only 12 minutes from the actual hours. Across countries, most predictions differ from the data by one hour or less. The model is not sensible to special assumptions on the parameters. I calculate the long run effects of taxes on consumption, hours, capital and welfare for Portugal. I extend the model to discuss implications for Social Security. I discuss the steady state and the transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully funded system.
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MARQUES, B.P. (2014) From Strategic Planning to Development Initiatives: a first reflection on the situation of Lisbon and Barcelona, in 20th APDR Congress Proceddings, APDR and UÉvora, Évora, pp. 850-857, ISBN 978-989-8780-01-0.
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INTRODUCTION: In Brazil, AIDS has been described as a multi-faceted pandemic. This study aimed to describe the trends of AIDS in São Mateus microregion, in Espírito Santo, and in Brazil, from 1999 to 2008. METHODS: Data were collected from the Notification Offences System, and a trend analysis was made. RESULTS: Microregion-based results are close to the state and national levels but with particular features that indicate the presence of regional sub-epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Despite progress in nearly thirty years of the epidemic, AIDS remains an incurable disease, and prevention is still the best defense against it together with the implementation of specific public policies.
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Introduction Envenomation by scorpion stings is a major public health problem in numerous tropical countries because of its frequent incidence and potential severity. Approximately 1,900 species of scorpions are known in the world, and at least 130 of these have been described in Brazil. Methods This work reports on 3 child deaths caused by Tityus stigmurus stings and characterizes epidemiological and clinical surveys on pediatric cases of scorpionism recorded in the Centro de Assistência Toxicológica de Pernambuco (Ceatox-PE). Results Scorpion stings accounted for more than 60% of all cases recorded for venomous animals. The children were from 37 cities of the Pernambuco state and accounted for 28.8% of the victims treated for scorpion stings, with the highest incidence in the metropolitan area of Recife. Stings occurred throughout the year and slightly increased during the rainy season. Independent of the elapsed time for a prognosis, most cases showed mild symptoms. Three moderate cases that resulted in death featured cardiogenic shock and/or pulmonary edema or severe neurological symptoms. For the first time, death attributed to T. stigmurus was confirmed by the presence of the scorpion. Conclusions These results suggest that scorpionism in Pernambuco is a public health problem that needs to be monitored carefully throughout the year by the government.
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Introduction Congenital syphilis is an important health problem in Brazil. This study assessed measures aimed at the prevention and control of syphilis in the State of Mato Grosso and its capital, Cuiabá. Methods A descriptive study cross-sectional and of time trends assessing the congenital syphilis was performed in Cuiabá and Mato Grosso between 2001 and 2011. We compared maternal sociodemographic characteristics and health care utilization related to cases of congenital syphilis during the periods from 2001 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2011. We assessed the temporal trends in this disease's incidence using a simple linear regression. Results Between 2001 and 2006 in Mato Grosso, 86.8% of the mothers who had live births with congenital syphilis received prenatal care, 90.6% presented with a nontreponemal test reagent at delivery, 96.2% had no information regarding a treponemal confirmatory test at delivery, and 77.6% received inadequate treatment for syphilis; additionally, 75.8% of their partners were not treated. There was a statistically significant reduction in prenatal visits (p = 0.004) and an increase in the proportion of mothers reactive to nontreponemal tests at delivery (p = 0.031) between the two periods. No other variables were found to differ significantly between the periods. In Cuiabá, we observed a similar distribution of variables. In the state and in the capital, the increasing trend of congenital syphilis was not statistically significant. Conclusions The high incidence of congenital syphilis in Mato Grosso and the low levels of health care indicators for pregnant women with syphilis suggest the need to improve the coverage and quality of prenatal care.
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Both culture coverage and digital journalism are contemporary phenomena that have undergone several transformations within a short period of time. Whenever the media enters a period of uncertainty such as the present one, there is an attempt to innovate in order to seek sustainability, skip the crisis or find a new public. This indicates that there are new trends to be understood and explored, i.e., how are media innovating in a digital environment? Not only does the professional debate about the future of journalism justify the need to explore the issue, but so do the academic approaches to cultural journalism. However, none of the studies so far have considered innovation as a motto or driver and tried to explain how the media are covering culture, achieving sustainability and engaging with the readers in a digital environment. This research examines how European media which specialize in culture or have an important cultural section are innovating in a digital environment. Specifically, we see how these innovation strategies are being taken in relation to the approach to culture and dominant cultural areas, editorial models, the use of digital tools for telling stories, overall brand positioning and extensions, engagement with the public and business models. We conducted a mixed methods study combining case studies of four media projects, which integrates qualitative web features and content analysis, with quantitative web content analysis. Two major general-interest journalistic brands which started as physical newspapers – The Guardian (London, UK) and Público (Lisbon, Portugal) – a magazine specialized in international affairs, culture and design – Monocle (London, UK) – and a native digital media project that was launched by a cultural organization – Notodo, by La Fábrica – were the four case studies chosen. Findings suggest, on one hand, that we are witnessing a paradigm shift in culture coverage in a digital environment, challenging traditional boundaries related to cultural themes and scope, angles, genres, content format and delivery, engagement and business models. Innovation in the four case studies lies especially along the product dimensions (format and content), brand positioning and process (business model and ways to engage with users). On the other hand, there are still perennial values that are crucial to innovation and sustainability, such as commitment to journalism, consistency (to the reader, to brand extensions and to the advertiser), intelligent differentiation and the capability of knowing what innovation means and how it can be applied, since this thesis also confirms that one formula doesn´t suit all. Changing minds, exceeding cultural inertia and optimizing the memory of the websites, looking at them as living, organic bodies, which continuously interact with the readers in many different ways, and not as a closed collection of articles, are still the main challenges for some media.
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CAP1/Prss8 is a membrane-bound serine protease involved in the regulation of several different effectors, such as the epithelial sodium channel ENaC, the protease-activated receptor PAR2, the tight junction proteins, and the profilaggrin polypeptide. Recently, the V170D and the G54-P57 deletion mutations within the CAP1/Prss8 gene, identified in mouse frizzy (fr) and rat hairless (fr(CR)) animals, respectively, have been proposed to be responsible for their skin phenotypes. In the present study, we analyzed those mutations, revealing a change in the protein structure, a modification of the glycosylation state, and an overall reduction in the activation of ENaC of the two mutant proteins. In vivo analyses demonstrated that both fr and fr(CR) mutant animals present analogous reduction of embryonic viability, similar histologic aberrations at the level of the skin, and a significant decrease in the activity of ENaC in the distal colon compared with their control littermates. Hairless rats additionally had dehydration defects in skin and intestine and significant reduction in the body weight. In conclusion, we provided molecular and functional evidence that CAP1/Prss8 mutations are accountable for the defects in fr and fr(CR) animals, and we furthermore demonstrate a decreased function of the CAP1/Prss8 mutant proteins. Therefore, fr and fr(CR) animals are suitable models to investigate the consequences of CAP1/Prss8 action on its target proteins in the whole organism.
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Gas6 downregulates the activation state of macrophages and thereby their production of proinflammatory cytokines induced by various stimuli. We aimed to determine whether Gas6 is involved in sepsis. We measured Gas6 plasma levels in 13 healthy subjects, 29 patients with severe sepsis, and 18 patients with non-infectious inflammatory diseases. Gas6 level was higher in septic patients than in control groups (P 0.0001). The sensitivity and specificity of Gas6 levels to predict fatal outcome were 83% and 88%. We next investigated whether Gas6 affects cytokine production and outcome in experimental models of endotoxemia and peritonitis in wild-type (WT) and Gas6-/- mice. Circulating levels of Gas6 after LPS 25mg/kg i.p. peaked at 1 hour (P<0.001). Similarly, TNF- was higher in Gas6-/- than in WT mice 1 hour after LPS (P<0.05). Furthermore, 62 anti- and pro-inflammatory cytokines were quantified in plasma after LPS injection. Their levels were globally higher in Gas6-/- plasma after LPS, 47/62 cytokines being at least 50% higher in Gas6-/- than in WT plasma after 1 hour. Mortality induced by 25mg/kg LPS was 25% in WT versus 87% in Gas6-/- mice (P<0.05). LPS-induced mortality in Gas6 receptors Axl-/-, Tyro3-/- and Merkd was also enhanced when compared to WT mice (P<0.001). In peritonitis models (cecal ligation and puncture, CLP, and i.p. injection of E. coli), Gas6 plasma levels increased and remained elevated at least 24 hours. CLP increased mortality in Gas6-/- mice. Finally, we explored the role of Gas6 in LPS-treated macrophages. We found that Gas6 was released by LPS-stimulated WT macrophages and that Gas6-/- macrophages produced more TNF- and IL-6 than WT macrophages. Cytokine release by Gas6-/- macrophages was higher than by WT macrophages (cytokine array). Adjunction of recombinant Gas6 to the culture medium of Gas6-/- macrophages diminished the cytokine production to WT levels. In LPS-treated Gas6-/- macrophages, Akt and Erk1/2 phosphorylation was reduced whereas p38 and NF B activation was enhanced. Thus, in septic patients, elevated Gas6 levels were associated with fatal outcome. In mice, they raised in experimental endotoxemia and peritonitis models, and correlated also with sepsis severity. However, Gas6-/- mice survival in these models was reduced compared to WT. Gas6 secreted by macrophages in response to LPS activated Akt and restrained p38 and NF B activation, thereby dampening macrophage activation. Altogether these data suggest that, during endotoxemia, Gas6-/- mice phenotype resembles that of mice which have undergone PI3K inhibition, indicating that Gas6 is a major modulator of innate immunity.
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MOTIVATION: In silico modeling of gene regulatory networks has gained some momentum recently due to increased interest in analyzing the dynamics of biological systems. This has been further facilitated by the increasing availability of experimental data on gene-gene, protein-protein and gene-protein interactions. The two dynamical properties that are often experimentally testable are perturbations and stable steady states. Although a lot of work has been done on the identification of steady states, not much work has been reported on in silico modeling of cellular differentiation processes. RESULTS: In this manuscript, we provide algorithms based on reduced ordered binary decision diagrams (ROBDDs) for Boolean modeling of gene regulatory networks. Algorithms for synchronous and asynchronous transition models have been proposed and their corresponding computational properties have been analyzed. These algorithms allow users to compute cyclic attractors of large networks that are currently not feasible using existing software. Hereby we provide a framework to analyze the effect of multiple gene perturbation protocols, and their effect on cell differentiation processes. These algorithms were validated on the T-helper model showing the correct steady state identification and Th1-Th2 cellular differentiation process. AVAILABILITY: The software binaries for Windows and Linux platforms can be downloaded from http://si2.epfl.ch/~garg/genysis.html.
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Heart tissue inflammation, progressive fibrosis and electrocardiographic alterations occur in approximately 30% of patients infected by Trypanosoma cruzi, 10-30 years after infection. Further, plasma levels of tumour necrosis factor (TNF) and nitric oxide (NO) are associated with the degree of heart dysfunction in chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). Thus, our aim was to establish experimental models that mimic a range of parasitological, pathological and cardiac alterations described in patients with chronic Chagas’ heart disease and evaluate whether heart disease severity was associated with increased TNF and NO levels in the serum. Our results show that C3H/He mice chronically infected with the Colombian T. cruzi strain have more severe cardiac parasitism and inflammation than C57BL/6 mice. In addition, connexin 43 disorganisation and fibronectin deposition in the heart tissue, increased levels of creatine kinase cardiac MB isoenzyme activity in the serum and more severe electrical abnormalities were observed in T. cruzi-infected C3H/He mice compared to C57BL/6 mice. Therefore, T. cruzi-infected C3H/He and C57BL/6 mice represent severe and mild models of CCC, respectively. Moreover, the CCC severity paralleled the TNF and NO levels in the serum. Therefore, these models are appropriate for studying the pathophysiology and biomarkers of CCC progression, as well as for testing therapeutic agents for patients with Chagas’ heart disease.
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Many animals that live in groups maintain competitive relationships, yet avoid continual fighting, by forming dominance hierarchies. We compare predictions of stochastic, individual-based models with empirical experimental evidence using shore crabs to test competing hypotheses regarding hierarchy development. The models test (1) what information individuals use when deciding to fight or retreat, (2) how past experience affects current resource-holding potential, and (3) how individuals deal with changes to the social environment. First, we conclude that crabs assess only their own state and not their opponent's when deciding to fight or retreat. Second, willingness to enter, and performance in, aggressive contests are influenced by previous contest outcomes. Winning increases the likelihood of both fighting and winning future interactions, while losing has the opposite effect. Third, when groups with established dominance hierarchies dissolve and new groups form, individuals reassess their ranks, showing no memory of previous rank or group affiliation. With every change in group composition, individuals fight for their new ranks. This iterative process carries over as groups dissolve and form, which has important implications for the relationship between ability and hierarchy rank. We conclude that dominance hierarchies emerge through an interaction of individual and social factors, and discuss these findings in terms of an underlying mechanism. Overall, our results are consistent with crabs using a cumulative assessment strategy iterated across changes in group composition, in which aggression is constrained by an absolute threshold in energy spent and damage received while fighting.
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Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.
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Many complex systems may be described by not one but a number of complex networks mapped on each other in a multi-layer structure. Because of the interactions and dependencies between these layers, the state of a single layer does not necessarily reflect well the state of the entire system. In this paper we study the robustness of five examples of two-layer complex systems: three real-life data sets in the fields of communication (the Internet), transportation (the European railway system), and biology (the human brain), and two models based on random graphs. In order to cover the whole range of features specific to these systems, we focus on two extreme policies of system's response to failures, no rerouting and full rerouting. Our main finding is that multi-layer systems are much more vulnerable to errors and intentional attacks than they appear from a single layer perspective.