Geochemical evidence of the 8.2 ka event and other Holocene environmental changes recorded in paleolagoon sediments, southeastern Brazil

The paleoclimatic record of Jureia Paleolagoon, coastal southeastem Brazil, includes cyclic and gradual changes with different intensities and frequencies through geological time, and it is controlled by astronomical, geophysical, and geological phenomena. These variations are not due to one single cause, but they result from the interaction of several factors, which act at different temporal and spatial scales. Here, we describe paleoenvironmental evidence regarding climatic and sea level changes from the last 9400 cal yr BP at the Jureia Paleolagoon - one of the main groups of protected South Atlantic ecosystems. Geochemical evidences were used to identify anomalies from multi-proxy analyses of a paleolagoon sediment core. The anomalies of centennial scale were correlated to climate and transgression-regression cycles from the Holocene period. Decadal scale anomalous oscillations in the Quaternary paleolagoon sediments occur between 9400 and 7500 cal yr BP, correlated with long- and short-term natural events, which generated high sedimentation rates, mainly between 8385 and 8375 cal yr BP (10 cm/yr). Our results suggest that a modem-day short-duration North Atlantic climatic event, such as the 82 ka event, could affect the environmental equilibrium in South America and intensify the South American Summer Monsoon. (C) 2011 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bootstrap confidence intervals for industrial recurrent event data

Industrial recurrent event data where an event of interest can be observed more than once in a single sample unit are presented in several areas, such as engineering, manufacturing and industrial reliability. Such type of data provide information about the number of events, time to their occurrence and also their costs. Nelson (1995) presents a methodology to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals for the cost and the number of cumulative recurrent events. Although this is a standard procedure, it can not perform well in some situations, in particular when the sample size available is small. In this context, computer-intensive methods such as bootstrap can be used to construct confidence intervals. In this paper, we propose a technique based on the bootstrap method to have interval estimates for the cost and the number of cumulative events. One of the advantages of the proposed methodology is the possibility for its application in several areas and its easy computational implementation. In addition, it can be a better alternative than asymptotic-based methods to calculate confidence intervals, according to some Monte Carlo simulations. An example from the engineering area illustrates the methodology.

Multi-Country Event Study Methods

Which event study methods are best in non-U.S. multi-country samples? Nonparametric tests, especially the rank and generalized sign, are better specified and more powerful than common parametric tests, especially in multi-day windows. The generalized sign test is the best statistic but must be applied to buy-and-hold abnormal returns for correct specification. Market-adjusted and market-model methods with local market indexes, without conversion to a common currency, work well. The results are robust to limiting the samples to situations expected to be problematic for test specification or power. Applying the tests that perform best in simulation to merger announcements produces reasonable results.

Echtzeitsuche nach Neutrinoausbrüchen von Supernovae mit dem AMANDA-II-Detektor

Der AMANDA-II Detektor ist primär für den richtungsaufgelösten Nachweis hochenergetischer Neutrinos konzipiert. Trotzdem können auch niederenergetische Neutrinoausbrüche, wie sie von Supernovae erwartet werden, mit hoher Signifikanz nachgewiesen werden, sofern sie innerhalb der Milchstraße stattfinden. Die experimentelle Signatur im Detektor ist ein kollektiver Anstieg der Rauschraten aller optischen Module. Zur Abschätzung der Stärke des erwarteten Signals wurden theoretische Modelle und Simulationen zu Supernovae und experimentelle Daten der Supernova SN1987A studiert. Außerdem wurden die Sensitivitäten der optischen Module neu bestimmt. Dazu mussten für den Fall des südpolaren Eises die Energieverluste geladener Teilchen untersucht und eine Simulation der Propagation von Photonen entwickelt werden. Schließlich konnte das im Kamiokande-II Detektor gemessene Signal auf die Verhältnisse des AMANDA-II Detektors skaliert werden. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde ein Algorithmus zur Echtzeit-Suche nach Signalen von Supernovae als Teilmodul der Datennahme implementiert. Dieser beinhaltet diverse Verbesserungen gegenüber der zuvor von der AMANDA-Kollaboration verwendeten Version. Aufgrund einer Optimierung auf Rechengeschwindigkeit können nun mehrere Echtzeit-Suchen mit verschiedenen Analyse-Zeitbasen im Rahmen der Datennahme simultan laufen. Die Disqualifikation optischer Module mit ungeeignetem Verhalten geschieht in Echtzeit. Allerdings muss das Verhalten der Module zu diesem Zweck anhand von gepufferten Daten beurteilt werden. Dadurch kann die Analyse der Daten der qualifizierten Module nicht ohne eine Verzögerung von etwa 5 Minuten geschehen. Im Falle einer erkannten Supernova werden die Daten für die Zeitdauer mehrerer Minuten zur späteren Auswertung in 10 Millisekunden-Intervallen archiviert. Da die Daten des Rauschverhaltens der optischen Module ansonsten in Intervallen von 500 ms zur Verfgung stehen, ist die Zeitbasis der Analyse in Einheiten von 500 ms frei wählbar. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden drei Analysen dieser Art am Südpol aktiviert: Eine mit der Zeitbasis der Datennahme von 500 ms, eine mit der Zeitbasis 4 s und eine mit der Zeitbasis 10 s. Dadurch wird die Sensitivität für Signale maximiert, die eine charakteristische exponentielle Zerfallszeit von 3 s aufweisen und gleichzeitig eine gute Sensitivität über einen weiten Bereich exponentieller Zerfallszeiten gewahrt. Anhand von Daten der Jahre 2000 bis 2003 wurden diese Analysen ausführlich untersucht. Während die Ergebnisse der Analyse mit t = 500 ms nicht vollständig nachvollziehbare Ergebnisse produzierte, konnten die Resultate der beiden Analysen mit den längeren Zeitbasen durch Simulationen reproduziert und entsprechend gut verstanden werden. Auf der Grundlage der gemessenen Daten wurden die erwarteten Signale von Supernovae simuliert. Aus einem Vergleich zwischen dieser Simulation den gemessenen Daten der Jahre 2000 bis 2003 und der Simulation des erwarteten statistischen Untergrunds kann mit einem Konfidenz-Niveau von mindestens 90 % gefolgert werden, dass in der Milchstraße nicht mehr als 3.2 Supernovae pro Jahr stattfinden. Zur Identifikation einer Supernova wird ein Ratenanstieg mit einer Signifikanz von mindestens 7.4 Standardabweichungen verlangt. Die Anzahl erwarteter Ereignisse aus dem statistischen Untergrund beträgt auf diesem Niveau weniger als ein Millionstel. Dennoch wurde ein solches Ereignis gemessen. Mit der gewählten Signifikanzschwelle werden 74 % aller möglichen Vorläufer-Sterne von Supernovae in der Galaxis überwacht. In Kombination mit dem letzten von der AMANDA-Kollaboration veröffentlicheten Ergebnis ergibt sich sogar eine obere Grenze von nur 2.6 Supernovae pro Jahr. Im Rahmen der Echtzeit-Analyse wird für die kollektive Ratenüberhöhung eine Signifikanz von mindestens 5.5 Standardabweichungen verlangt, bevor eine Meldung über die Detektion eines Supernova-Kandidaten verschickt wird. Damit liegt der überwachte Anteil Sterne der Galaxis bei 81 %, aber auch die Frequenz falscher Alarme steigt auf bei etwa 2 Ereignissen pro Woche. Die Alarm-Meldungen werden über ein Iridium-Modem in die nördliche Hemisphäre übertragen, und sollen schon bald zu SNEWS beitragen, dem weltweiten Netzwerk zur Früherkennung von Supernovae.

Variability analysis of discrete event series and wavefront patterns in surface electrocardiogram: contributions to psychophysiological and clinical research

The surface electrocardiogram (ECG) is an established diagnostic tool for the detection of abnormalities in the electrical activity of the heart. The interest of the ECG, however, extends beyond the diagnostic purpose. In recent years, studies in cognitive psychophysiology have related heart rate variability (HRV) to memory performance and mental workload. The aim of this thesis was to analyze the variability of surface ECG derived rhythms, at two different time scales: the discrete-event time scale, typical of beat-related features (Objective I), and the “continuous” time scale of separated sources in the ECG (Objective II), in selected scenarios relevant to psychophysiological and clinical research, respectively. Objective I) Joint time-frequency and non-linear analysis of HRV was carried out, with the goal of assessing psychophysiological workload (PPW) in response to working memory engaging tasks. Results from fourteen healthy young subjects suggest the potential use of the proposed indices in discriminating PPW levels in response to varying memory-search task difficulty. Objective II) A novel source-cancellation method based on morphology clustering was proposed for the estimation of the atrial wavefront in atrial fibrillation (AF) from body surface potential maps. Strong direct correlation between spectral concentration (SC) of atrial wavefront and temporal variability of the spectral distribution was shown in persistent AF patients, suggesting that with higher SC, shorter observation time is required to collect spectral distribution, from which the fibrillatory rate is estimated. This could be time and cost effective in clinical decision-making. The results held for reduced leads sets, suggesting that a simplified setup could also be considered, further reducing the costs. In designing the methods of this thesis, an online signal processing approach was kept, with the goal of contributing to real-world applicability. An algorithm for automatic assessment of ambulatory ECG quality, and an automatic ECG delineation algorithm were designed and validated.

Engineering Concurrent and Event-driven Web Apps: An Agent-Oriented Approach based on the simpAL Language

Web is constantly evolving, thanks to the 2.0 transition, HTML5 new features and the coming of cloud-computing, the gap between Web and traditional desktop applications is tailing off. Web-apps are more and more widespread and bring several benefits compared to traditional ones. On the other hand reference technologies, JavaScript primarly, are not keeping pace, so a paradim shift is taking place in Web programming, and so many new languages and technologies are coming out. First objective of this thesis is to survey the reference and state-of-art technologies for client-side Web programming focusing in particular on what concerns concurrency and asynchronous programming. Taking into account the problems that affect existing technologies, we finally design simpAL-web, an innovative approach to tackle Web-apps development, based on the Agent-oriented programming abstraction and the simpAL language. == Versione in italiano: Il Web è in continua evoluzione, grazie alla transizione verso il 2.0, alle nuove funzionalità introdotte con HTML5 ed all’avvento del cloud-computing, il divario tra le applicazioni Web e quelle desktop tradizionali va assottigliandosi. Le Web-apps sono sempre più diffuse e presentano diversi vantaggi rispetto a quelle tradizionali. D’altra parte le tecnologie di riferimento, JavaScript in primis, non stanno tenendo il passo, motivo per cui la programmazione Web sta andando incontro ad un cambio di paradigma e nuovi linguaggi e tecnologie stanno spuntando sempre più numerosi. Primo obiettivo di questa tesi è di passare al vaglio le tecnologie di riferimento ed allo stato dell’arte per quel che riguarda la programmmazione Web client-side, porgendo particolare attenzione agli aspetti inerenti la concorrenza e la programmazione asincrona. Considerando i principali problemi di cui soffrono le attuali tecnologie passeremo infine alla progettazione di simpAL-web, un approccio innovativo con cui affrontare lo sviluppo di Web-apps basato sulla programmazione orientata agli Agenti e sul linguaggio simpAL.

Discrete Event Systems based Design Patterns for Diagnosability Analysis of Automated Manufacturing Systems

The main goal of this thesis is to facilitate the process of industrial automated systems development applying formal methods to ensure the reliability of systems. A new formulation of distributed diagnosability problem in terms of Discrete Event Systems theory and automata framework is presented, which is then used to enforce the desired property of the system, rather then just verifying it. This approach tackles the state explosion problem with modeling patterns and new algorithms, aimed for verification of diagnosability property in the context of the distributed diagnosability problem. The concepts are validated with a newly developed software tool.

Eye-trauma: Event driven control software for gesture recognition in medical simulation

Il progetto Eye-Trauma si colloca all'interno dello sviluppo di un simulatore chirurgico per traumi alla zona oculare, sviluppato in collaborazione con Simulation Group in Boston, Harvard Medical School e Massachusetts General Hospital. Il simulatore presenta un busto in silicone fornito di moduli intercambiabili della zona oculare, per simulare diversi tipi di trauma. L'utilizzatore è chiamato ad eseguire la procedura medica di saturazione tramite degli strumenti chirurgici su cui sono installati dei sensori di forza e di apertura. I dati collezionati vengono utilizzati all'interno del software per il riconoscimento dei gesti e il controllo real-time della performance. L'algoritmo di gesture recognition, da me sviluppato, si basa sul concetto di macchine a stati; la transizione tra gli stati avviene in base agli eventi rilevati dal simulatore.

Software tools and efficient algorithms for the feature detection, feature tracking, event localization, and visualization of large sets of atmospheric data

Data sets describing the state of the earth's atmosphere are of great importance in the atmospheric sciences. Over the last decades, the quality and sheer amount of the available data increased significantly, resulting in a rising demand for new tools capable of handling and analysing these large, multidimensional sets of atmospheric data. The interdisciplinary work presented in this thesis covers the development and the application of practical software tools and efficient algorithms from the field of computer science, aiming at the goal of enabling atmospheric scientists to analyse and to gain new insights from these large data sets. For this purpose, our tools combine novel techniques with well-established methods from different areas such as scientific visualization and data segmentation. In this thesis, three practical tools are presented. Two of these tools are software systems (Insight and IWAL) for different types of processing and interactive visualization of data, the third tool is an efficient algorithm for data segmentation implemented as part of Insight.Insight is a toolkit for the interactive, three-dimensional visualization and processing of large sets of atmospheric data, originally developed as a testing environment for the novel segmentation algorithm. It provides a dynamic system for combining at runtime data from different sources, a variety of different data processing algorithms, and several visualization techniques. Its modular architecture and flexible scripting support led to additional applications of the software, from which two examples are presented: the usage of Insight as a WMS (web map service) server, and the automatic production of a sequence of images for the visualization of cyclone simulations. The core application of Insight is the provision of the novel segmentation algorithm for the efficient detection and tracking of 3D features in large sets of atmospheric data, as well as for the precise localization of the occurring genesis, lysis, merging and splitting events. Data segmentation usually leads to a significant reduction of the size of the considered data. This enables a practical visualization of the data, statistical analyses of the features and their events, and the manual or automatic detection of interesting situations for subsequent detailed investigation. The concepts of the novel algorithm, its technical realization, and several extensions for avoiding under- and over-segmentation are discussed. As example applications, this thesis covers the setup and the results of the segmentation of upper-tropospheric jet streams and cyclones as full 3D objects. Finally, IWAL is presented, which is a web application for providing an easy interactive access to meteorological data visualizations, primarily aimed at students. As a web application, the needs to retrieve all input data sets and to install and handle complex visualization tools on a local machine are avoided. The main challenge in the provision of customizable visualizations to large numbers of simultaneous users was to find an acceptable trade-off between the available visualization options and the performance of the application. Besides the implementational details, benchmarks and the results of a user survey are presented.

Simulating event related potentials in tasks involving conflict resolution: a neural network

In this thesis, the main Executive Control theories are exposed. Methods typical of Cognitive and Computational Neuroscience are introduced and the role of behavioural tasks involving conflict resolution in the response elaboration, after the presentation of a stimulus to the subject, are highlighted. In particular, the Eriksen Flanker Task and its variants are discussed. Behavioural data, from scientific literature, are illustrated in terms of response times and error rates. During experimental behavioural tasks, EEG is registered simultaneously. Thanks to this, event related potential, related with the current task, can be studied. Different theories regarding relevant event related potential in this field - such as N2, fERN (feedback Error Related Negativity) and ERN (Error Related Negativity) – are introduced. The aim of this thesis is to understand and simulate processes regarding Executive Control, including performance improvement, error detection mechanisms, post error adjustments and the role of selective attention, with the help of an original neural network model. The network described here has been built with the purpose to simulate behavioural results of a four choice Eriksen Flanker Task. Model results show that the neural network can simulate response times, error rates and event related potentials quite well. Finally, results are compared with behavioural data and discussed in light of the mentioned Executive Control theories. Future perspective for this new model are outlined.