Konjunktúraingadozások az Egyesült Államokban 1970-2010 - Értelmezési nehézségek = Business cycles and recession patterns in the US economy and in the G7

Lehet-e beszélni a 2011-ig felgyülemlett empirikus tapasztalatok tükrében egy egységes válságlefolyásról, amely a fejlett ipari országok egészére általában jellemző, és a meghatározó országok esetében is megragadható? Megállapíthatók-e olyan univerzális változások a kibocsátás, a munkapiacok, a fogyasztás, valamint a beruházás tekintetében, amelyek jól illeszkednek a korábbi tapasztalatokhoz, nem kevésbé az ismert makromodellek predikcióihoz? A válasz – legalábbis jelen sorok írásakor – nemleges: sem a válság lefolyásának jellegzetességeiben és a makrogazdasági teljesítmények romlásának ütemében, sem a visszacsúszás mértékében és időbeli kiterjedésében sincsenek jól azonosítható közös jegyek, olyanok, amelyek a meglévő elméleti keretekbe jól beilleszthetők. A tanulmány áttekinti a válsággal és a makrogazdasági sokkokkal foglalkozó empirikus irodalom – a pénzügyi globalizáció értelmezései nyomán – relevánsnak tartott munkáit. Ezt követően egy 60 év távlatát átfogó vizsgálatban próbáljuk megítélni a recessziós időszakokban az amerikai gazdaság teljesítményét azzal a célkitűzéssel, hogy az elmúlt válság súlyosságának megítélése kellően objektív lehessen, legalább a fontosabb makrováltozók elmozdulásának nagyságrendje tekintetében. / === / Based on the empirical evidence accumulated until 2011, using official statistics from the OECD data bank and the US Commerce Department, the article addresses the question whether one can, or cannot, speak about generally observable recession/crisis patterns, such that were to be universally recognized in all major industrial countries (the G7). The answer to this question is a firm no. Changes and volatility in most major macroeconomic indicators such as output-gap, labor market distortions and large deviations from trend in consumption and in investment did all, respectively, exhibit wide differences in depth and width across the G7 countries. The large deviations in output-gaps and especially strong distortions in labor market inputs and hours per capita worked over the crisis months can hardly be explained by the existing model classes of DSGE and those of the real business cycle. Especially bothering are the difficulties in fitting the data into any established model whether business cycle or some other types, in which financial distress reduces economic activity. It is argued that standard business cycle models with financial market imperfections have no mechanism for generating deviation from standard theory, thus they do not shed light on the key factors underlying the 2007–2009 recession. That does not imply that the financial crisis is unimportant in understanding the recession, but it does indicate however, that we do not fully understand the channels through which financial distress reduced labor input. Long historical trends on the privately held portion of the federal debt in the US economy indicate that the standard macro proposition of public debt crowding out private investment and thus inhibiting growth, can be strongly challenged in so far as this ratio is neither a direct indicator of growth slowing down, nor for recession.

Como un milagro: The Musical Influence of Juanito Márquez on the Popular Song of Four Continents, Lecture by Benjamin Lapidus

This flyer promotes the event "Como un milagro: The Musical Influence of Juanito Márquez on the Popular Song of Four Continents, Lecture by Benjamin Lapidus" Cosponsored by the Latin American and Caribbean Center and the Green Library.

Como un milagro: The Musical Influence of Juanito Márquez on the Popular Song of Four Continents, Lecture by Benjamin Lapidus

Lecture by Dr. Benjamin Lapidus covering the career of Cuban guitarist, composer, and orchestrator Juanito Marquez Urbino.

Vertical attenuation of light predicts the sequence to dawn song in a tropical forest avifuana

The concentration of avian song at first light (i.e., the dawn chorus) is widely appreciated but has an enigmatic functional significance. The most widely accepted explanation is that birds are active but light levels are not adequate for foraging. As a consequence, the time of first song should be predictable from the light level of individuals singing at dawn. To test this, I collected data from a tropical forest of Ecuador, involving 130 species. Light intensity at first song was a highly repeatable species' trait (r = 0.57). Foraging height was a good predictor of first song, with canopy birds singing at lower light levels than understory birds (r = -0.62). Although light level predicts the onset of singing in tropical and temperate bird communities, the structural complexity and trophic specializations in tropical forests may exert an important influence, which has been overlooked in research conducted in the temperate zone.

The song of humpback whale and the potential effects of whale-watching in the abrolhos bank, BA, Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The song of humpback whale and the potential effects of whale-watching in the abrolhos bank, BA, Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O ciclo Slopiewnie opus 46 bis de Karol Szymanowski: uma abordagem de estudo e performance

This text presents a discussion about the song cycle Slopiewnie Opus 46 bis of Karol Szymanowski, one of the most important Polish composers of the 20th century. Slopiewnie was composed on texts of Julian Tuwim, poet born in 1894 in Łódź, who used ancient roots to create new words and search for special sonorities. First, this text introduces a brief biographical sketch about Szymanowski, in order to contextualize Slopiewnie in relation to the composer’s works. Afterwards, the text provides an analysis of the songs and their texts, which may serve as a study tool for future perfomers. Interpretative suggestions are offered, based on the experience of learning these songs and on references. The text also presents the phonetic transcription of the poems, as well as a suggested translation to Portuguese, making it easier for Brazilian singers to learn the cycle’s text and prosody.

Is Pairing with a Relative Heritable? : Estimating Female and Male Genetic Contributions to the Degree of Biparental Inbreeding in Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia)

We thank the Tsawout and Tseycum First Nation bands for access to Mandarte, everyone who contributed to the long-term data collection, and the European Research Council and Royal Society for funding. We thank J.D. Hadfield, P. Bijma, E. Postma, and L.F. Keller for illuminatingdiscussions. Also, L.E.B. Kruuk, R. Bonduriansky, and an anonymous reviewer provided insightful comments that improved the manuscript.

Cumulative live birth rates after one or more complete cycles of IVF : a population-based study of linked cycle data from 178 898 women

© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cycles of passive versus active diapirism recorded along an exposed salt wall

Acknowledgements GIA is grateful for funding from the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland that enabled fieldwork for this project. RW was supported by the Israel Science Foundation (ISF grant No. 1245/11). SM was supported by the Israel Science Foundation (ISF grant No. 1436/14). We would like to thank Chris Talbot and Yohann Poprawski for careful and constructive reviews. The authors appreciate the help of Nicolas Waldmann in precisely locating the positons of dated unconformities.

Direct and indirect genetic and fine-scale location effects on breeding date in song sparrows

Peer reviewed

Song written by Betty Friedan and Jackie Reinach in the early 1970s.

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Aspects of Motives: Finite-dimensionality, Chow-Kunneth Decompositions and Intersections of Cycles

This thesis analyzes the Chow motives of 3 types of smooth projective varieties: the desingularized elliptic self fiber product, the Fano surface of lines on a cubic threefold and an ample hypersurface of an Abelian variety. For the desingularized elliptic self fiber product, we use an isotypic decomposition of the motive to deduce the Murre conjectures. We also prove a result about the intersection product. For the Fano surface of lines, we prove the finite-dimensionality of the Chow motive. Finally, we prove that an ample hypersurface on an Abelian variety possesses a Chow-Kunneth decomposition for which a motivic version of the Lefschetz hyperplane theorem holds.

(Table S1) Diatom abundance according to ice cycles in ANDRILL AND1-1B drill core

The influence of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean on Late Pliocene global climate reconstructions has remained ambiguous due to a lack of well-dated Antarctic-proximal, paleoenvironmental records. Here we present ice sheet, sea-surface temperature, and sea ice reconstructions from the ANDRILL AND-1B sediment core recovered from beneath the Ross Ice Shelf. We provide evidence for a major expansion of an ice sheet in the Ross Sea that began at ~3.3 Ma, followed by a coastal sea surface temperature cooling of ~2.5°C, a stepwise expansion of sea ice, and polynya-style deep mixing in the Ross Sea between 3.3 and 2.5 Ma. The intensification of Antarctic cooling resulted in strengthened westerly winds and invigorated ocean circulation. The associated northward migration of Southern Ocean fronts has been linked with reduced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by restricting surface water connectivity between the ocean basins, with implications for heat transport to the high latitudes of the North Atlantic. While our results do not exclude low-latitude mechanisms as drivers for Pliocene cooling, they indicate an additional role played by southern high-latitude cooling during development of the bipolar world.

Diatom-bound N isotope records over the last two glacial cycles in sediment core PS75/072-4

In a sediment core from the Pacific sector of the Antarctic Zone (AZ) of the Southern Ocean, we report diatom-bound N isotope (d15Ndb) records for total recoverable diatoms and two distinct diatom assemblages (pennate and centric rich). These data indicate tight coupling between the degree of nitrate consumption and Antarctic climate across the last two glacial cycles, with d15Ndb (and thus the degree of nitrate consumption) increasing at each major Antarctic cooling event. Coupled with evidence from opal- and barium-based proxies for reduced export production during ice ages, the d15Ndb increases point to ice age reductions in the supply of deep ocean-sourced nitrate to the AZ surface. The two diatom assemblages and species abundance data indicate that the d15Ndb changes are not the result of changing species composition. The pennate and centric assemblage d15Ndb records indicate similar changes but with a significant decline in their difference during peak ice ages. A tentative seasonality-based interpretation of the centric-to-pennate d15Ndb difference suggests that late summer surface waters became nitrate free during the peak glacials.