New validated prognostic models and prognostic calculators in patients with low-grade gliomas diagnosed by central pathology review: a pooled analysis of EORTC/RTOG/NCCTG phase III clinical trials.

Background In a previous study, the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) reported a scoring system to predict survival of patients with low-grade gliomas (LGGs). A major issue in the diagnosis of brain tumors is the lack of agreement among pathologists. New models in patients with LGGs diagnosed by central pathology review are needed. Methods Data from 339 EORTC patients with LGGs diagnosed by central pathology review were used to develop new prognostic models for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Data from 450 patients with centrally diagnosed LGGs recruited into 2 large studies conducted by North American cooperative groups were used to validate the models. Results Both PFS and OS were negatively influenced by the presence of baseline neurological deficits, a shorter time since first symptoms (<30 wk), an astrocytic tumor type, and tumors larger than 5 cm in diameter. Early irradiation improved PFS but not OS. Three risk groups have been identified (low, intermediate, and high) and validated. Conclusions We have developed new prognostic models in a more homogeneous LGG population diagnosed by central pathology review. This population better fits with modern practice, where patients are enrolled in clinical trials based on central or panel pathology review. We could validate the models in a large, external, and independent dataset. The models can divide LGG patients into 3 risk groups and provide reliable individual survival predictions. Inclusion of other clinical and molecular factors might still improve models' predictions.

Bloodstream infections related to totally implantable venous access port: What is the situation in our hospital?

Port-a-Cath© (PAC) are totally implantable devices that offer an easy and long term access to venous circulation. They have been extensively used for intravenous therapy administration and are particularly well suited for chemotherapy in oncologic patients. Previous comparative studies have shown that these devices have the lowest catheter-related bloodstream infection rates among all intravascular access systems. However, bloodstream infection (BSI) still remains a major issue of port use and epidemiology data for PAC-associated BSI (PABSI) rates differ strongly depending on studies. Also, current literature about PABSI risk factors is scarce and sometimes controversial. Such heterogeneity may depend on type of studied population and local factors. Therefore, the aim of this study was to describe local epidemiology and risk factors for PABSI in adult patients in our tertiary- care university hospital. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in order to describe local epidemiology. We also performed a nested case-control study to identify local risk factors of PABSI. We analyzed medical files of adult patients who had a PAC implanted between January 1st, 2008 and December 31st, 2009 and looked for PABSI occurrence before May 1st, 2011 to define cases. Thirty nine PABSI occurred in this population with an attack rate of 5.8%. We estimated an incidence rate of 0.08/1000 PAC-days using the case-control study. PABSI causative agents were mainly Gram positive cocci (62%). We identified three predictive factors of PABSI by multivariate statistical analysis: neutropenia on outcome date (Odds Ratio [OR]: 4.05; 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.05- 15.66; p=0.042), diabetes (OR: 11.53; 95% CI: 1.07-124.70; p=0.044) and having another infection than PABSI on outcome date (OR: 6.35; 95% CI: 1.50-26.86; p=0.012). Patients suffering from acute or renal failure (OR: 4.26; 95% CI: 0.94-19.21; p=0.059) or wearing another invasive device (OR: 2.99; 95%CI:0.96-9.31; p=0.059) did not have a statistically increased risk for developing a PABSI according to classical threshold (p<0.05) but nevertheless remained close to significance. Our study demonstrated that local epidemiology and microbiology of PABSI in our institution was similar to previous reports. A larger prospective study is required to confirm our results or to test preventive measures.

Fading models and metrics for contemporary wireless systems

The purpose of this paper is to examine (1) some of the models commonly used to represent fading,and (2) the information-theoretic metrics most commonly used to evaluate performance over those models. We raise the question of whether these models and metrics remain adequate in light of the advances that wireless systems haveundergone over the last two decades. Weaknesses are pointedout, and ideas on possible fixes are put forth.

Rates of cultural change and patterns of cultural accumulation in stochastic models of social transmission.

Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call "fixation of the innovation." Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution-for example, of handaxe measurements-is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.

Swain: Stata module to correct the SEM chi-square overidentification test in small sample sizes or complex models. Statistical Software Components S457617, Boston College Department of Economics.

Swain corrects the chi-square overidentification test (i.e., likelihood ratio test of fit) for structural equation models whethr with or without latent variables. The chi-square statistic is asymptotically correct; however, it does not behave as expected in small samples and/or when the model is complex (cf. Herzog, Boomsma, & Reinecke, 2007). Thus, particularly in situations where the ratio of sample size (n) to the number of parameters estimated (p) is relatively small (i.e., the p to n ratio is large), the chi-square test will tend to overreject correctly specified models. To obtain a closer approximation to the distribution of the chi-square statistic, Swain (1975) developed a correction; this scaling factor, which converges to 1 asymptotically, is multiplied with the chi-square statistic. The correction better approximates the chi-square distribution resulting in more appropriate Type 1 reject error rates (see Herzog & Boomsma, 2009; Herzog, et al., 2007).

Political mobilisation and models of trade unionism : Southern Europe in comparative perspective

The relationship between union membership and political mobilization has been studied under many perspectives, but quantitative cross-national analyses have been hampered by the absence of international comparable survey data until the first round of the European Social Survey (ESS-2002) was made available. Using different national samples from this survey in four moments of time (2002, 2004 and 2006), our paper provides evidence of cross-country divergence in the empirical association between political mobilisation and trade union membership. Cross-national differences in union members’ political mobilization, we argue, can be explained by the existence of models of unionism that in turn differ with respect to two decisive factors: the institutionalisation of trade union activity and the opportunities left-wing parties have available for gaining access to executive power.

Cost-effectiveness of opportunistic versus organised mammography screening in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Various centralised mammography screening programmes have shown to reduce breast cancer mortality at reasonable costs. However, mammography screening is not necessarily cost-effective in every situation. Opportunistic screening, the predominant screening modality in several European countries, may under certain circumstances be a cost-effective alternative. In this study, we compared the cost-effectiveness of both screening modalities in Switzerland. METHODS: Using micro-simulation modelling, we predicted the effects and costs of biennial mammography screening for 50-69 years old women between 1999 and 2020, in the Swiss female population aged 30-70 in 1999. A sensitivity analysis on the test sensitivity of opportunistic screening was performed. RESULTS: Organised mammography screening with an 80% participation rate yielded a breast cancer mortality reduction of 13%. Twenty years after the start of screening, the predicted annual breast cancer mortality was 25% lower than in a situation without screening. The 3% discounted cost-effectiveness ratio of organised mammography screening was euro11,512 per life year gained. Opportunistic screening with a similar participation rate was comparably effective, but at twice the costs: euro22,671-24,707 per life year gained. This was mainly related to the high costs of opportunistic mammography and frequent use of imaging diagnostics in combination with an opportunistic mammogram. CONCLUSION: Although data on the performance of opportunistic screening are limited, both opportunistic and organised mammography screening seem effective in reducing breast cancer mortality in Switzerland. However, for opportunistic screening to become equally cost-effective as organised screening, costs and use of additional diagnostics should be reduced.

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001.We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling.

PACIC Instrument: disentangling dimensions using published validation models.

OBJECTIVE: To better understand the structure of the Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (PACIC) instrument. More specifically to test all published validation models, using one single data set and appropriate statistical tools. DESIGN: Validation study using data from cross-sectional survey. PARTICIPANTS: A population-based sample of non-institutionalized adults with diabetes residing in Switzerland (canton of Vaud). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: French version of the 20-items PACIC instrument (5-point response scale). We conducted validation analyses using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The original five-dimension model and other published models were tested with three types of CFA: based on (i) a Pearson estimator of variance-covariance matrix, (ii) a polychoric correlation matrix and (iii) a likelihood estimation with a multinomial distribution for the manifest variables. All models were assessed using loadings and goodness-of-fit measures. RESULTS: The analytical sample included 406 patients. Mean age was 64.4 years and 59% were men. Median of item responses varied between 1 and 4 (range 1-5), and range of missing values was between 5.7 and 12.3%. Strong floor and ceiling effects were present. Even though loadings of the tested models were relatively high, the only model showing acceptable fit was the 11-item single-dimension model. PACIC was associated with the expected variables of the field. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that the model considering 11 items in a single dimension exhibited the best fit for our data. A single score, in complement to the consideration of single-item results, might be used instead of the five dimensions usually described.

Towards robust network based complex systems : from evolutionary cellular automata to biological models

Abstract Sitting between your past and your future doesn't mean you are in the present. Dakota Skye Complex systems science is an interdisciplinary field grouping under the same umbrella dynamical phenomena from social, natural or mathematical sciences. The emergence of a higher order organization or behavior, transcending that expected of the linear addition of the parts, is a key factor shared by all these systems. Most complex systems can be modeled as networks that represent the interactions amongst the system's components. In addition to the actual nature of the part's interactions, the intrinsic topological structure of underlying network is believed to play a crucial role in the remarkable emergent behaviors exhibited by the systems. Moreover, the topology is also a key a factor to explain the extraordinary flexibility and resilience to perturbations when applied to transmission and diffusion phenomena. In this work, we study the effect of different network structures on the performance and on the fault tolerance of systems in two different contexts. In the first part, we study cellular automata, which are a simple paradigm for distributed computation. Cellular automata are made of basic Boolean computational units, the cells; relying on simple rules and information from- the surrounding cells to perform a global task. The limited visibility of the cells can be modeled as a network, where interactions amongst cells are governed by an underlying structure, usually a regular one. In order to increase the performance of cellular automata, we chose to change its topology. We applied computational principles inspired by Darwinian evolution, called evolutionary algorithms, to alter the system's topological structure starting from either a regular or a random one. The outcome is remarkable, as the resulting topologies find themselves sharing properties of both regular and random network, and display similitudes Watts-Strogtz's small-world network found in social systems. Moreover, the performance and tolerance to probabilistic faults of our small-world like cellular automata surpasses that of regular ones. In the second part, we use the context of biological genetic regulatory networks and, in particular, Kauffman's random Boolean networks model. In some ways, this model is close to cellular automata, although is not expected to perform any task. Instead, it simulates the time-evolution of genetic regulation within living organisms under strict conditions. The original model, though very attractive by it's simplicity, suffered from important shortcomings unveiled by the recent advances in genetics and biology. We propose to use these new discoveries to improve the original model. Firstly, we have used artificial topologies believed to be closer to that of gene regulatory networks. We have also studied actual biological organisms, and used parts of their genetic regulatory networks in our models. Secondly, we have addressed the improbable full synchronicity of the event taking place on. Boolean networks and proposed a more biologically plausible cascading scheme. Finally, we tackled the actual Boolean functions of the model, i.e. the specifics of how genes activate according to the activity of upstream genes, and presented a new update function that takes into account the actual promoting and repressing effects of one gene on another. Our improved models demonstrate the expected, biologically sound, behavior of previous GRN model, yet with superior resistance to perturbations. We believe they are one step closer to the biological reality.

Explicit ruin formulas for models with dependence among risks

We show that a simple mixing idea allows one to establish a number of explicit formulas for ruin probabilities and related quantities in collective risk models with dependence among claim sizes and among claim inter-occurrence times. Examples include compound Poisson risk models with completely monotone marginal claim size distributions that are dependent according to Archimedean survival copulas as well as renewal risk models with dependent inter-occurrence times.

SESAM - a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realised properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate assemblage properties. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single 'spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling' (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant species source pool designations, macroecological factors, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both for improving our basic understanding of species assembly across spatio-temporal scales and for anticipating expected consequences of local, regional or global environmental changes. In this paper, we propose such a framework and call for further developments and testing across a broad range of community types in a variety of environments.

Eradication d'une population d'écrevisses de Louisiane, Procambarus clarkii, à l'étang de Vidy et situation des populations d'écrevisses à Lausanne, Suisse.

En juillet 2007, des écrevisses de Louisiane, Procambarus clarkii, ont été observées, pour la première fois en Suisse romande, dans l'étang artificiel de Vidy à Lausanne. Au printemps 2008, l'étang a été asséché pendant 2 mois pour tenter d'éradiquer les écrevisses. En juillet 2008, et au printemps 2009, des écrevisses de Louisiane furent à nouveau observées dans l'étang: des individus avaient survécu au traitement et/ou des écrevisses avaient à nouveau été introduites. En 2010, une nouvelle campagne d'éradication a été mise en place: l'étang fut asséché, son lit chaulé et les interstices entre les enrochements bétonnés. Lors du suivi 2011, plus aucune écrevisse ne fut capturée. L'opération semble donc finalement avoir été un succès. Les observations effectuées sur 20 plans d'eau dans un rayon de 4.5 km autour de l'étang de Vidy n'ont pas mis en évidence d'autres populations d'écrevisses de Louisiane. Plusieurs populations d'écrevisses américaines, orconectes limosus, et signal ̧ Pacifastacus lenuisculus, ont été localisées, ainsi qu'une population d'écrevisses à pattes rouges, Astacus astacus.

Measurement with Some Theory: a New Approach to Evaluate Business Cycle Models

We propose a method to evaluate cyclical models which does not require knowledge of the DGP and the exact empirical specification of the aggregate decision rules. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks and others to evaluate the model or contrast sub-models. The approach has good size and excellent power properties, even in small samples. We show how to examine the validity of a class of models, sort out the relevance of certain frictions, evaluate the importance of an added feature, and indirectly estimate structural parameters.