Asymmetric response of demand-supply mismatch to investor's sentiment

We look through both the demand and supply side information to understand dynamics of price determination in the real estate market and examine how accurately investors’ attitudes predict the market returns and thereby flagging off extent of any demand-supply mismatch. Our hypothesis is based on the possibility that investors’ call for action in terms of their buy/sell decision and adjustment in reservation/offer prices may indicate impending demand-supply imbalances in the market. In the process, we study several real estate sectors to inform our analysis. The timeframe of our analysis (1995-2010) allows us to observe market dynamics over several economic cycles and in various stages of those cycles. Additionally, we also seek to understand how investors’ attitude or the sentiment affects the market activity over the cycles through asymmetric responses. We test our hypothesis variously using a number of measures of market activity and attitude indicators within several model specifications. The empirical models are estimated using Vector Error Correction framework. Our analysis suggests that investors’ attitude exert strong and statistically significant feedback effects in price determination. Moreover, these effects do reveal heterogeneous responses across the real estate sectors. Interestingly, our results indicate the asymmetric responses during boom, normal and recessionary periods. These results are consistent with the theoretical underpinnings.

B-spline neural networks based PID controller for Hammerstein systems

A new PID tuning and controller approach is introduced for Hammerstein systems based on input/output data. A B-spline neural network is used to model the nonlinear static function in the Hammerstein system. The control signal is composed of a PID controller together with a correction term. In order to update the control signal, the multistep ahead predictions of the Hammerstein system based on the B-spline neural networks and the associated Jacobians matrix are calculated using the De Boor algorithms including both the functional and derivative recursions. A numerical example is utilized to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approaches.

Design and management of sustainable built environments

The United Nation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes it clear that climate change is due to human activities and it recognises buildings as a distinct sector among the seven analysed in its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report. Global concerns have escalated regarding carbon emissions and sustainability in the built environment. The built environment is a human-made setting to accommodate human activities, including building and transport, which covers an interdisciplinary field addressing design, construction, operation and management. Specifically, Sustainable Buildings are expected to achieve high performance throughout the life-cycle of siting, design, construction, operation, maintenance and demolition, in the following areas: • energy and resource efficiency; • cost effectiveness; • minimisation of emissions that negatively impact global warming, indoor air quality and acid rain; • minimisation of waste discharges; and • maximisation of fulfilling the requirements of occupants’ health and wellbeing. Professionals in the built environment sector, for example, urban planners, architects, building scientists, engineers, facilities managers, performance assessors and policy makers, will play a significant role in delivering a sustainable built environment. Delivering a sustainable built environment needs an integrated approach and so it is essential for built environment professionals to have interdisciplinary knowledge in building design and management . Building and urban designers need to have a good understanding of the planning, design and management of the buildings in terms of low carbon and energy efficiency. There are a limited number of traditional engineers who know how to design environmental systems (services engineer) in great detail. Yet there is a very large market for technologists with multi-disciplinary skills who are able to identify the need for, envision and manage the deployment of a wide range of sustainable technologies, both passive (architectural) and active (engineering system),, and select the appropriate approach. Employers seek applicants with skills in analysis, decision-making/assessment, computer simulation and project implementation. An integrated approach is expected in practice, which encourages built environment professionals to think ‘out of the box’ and learn to analyse real problems using the most relevant approach, irrespective of discipline. The Design and Management of Sustainable Built Environment book aims to produce readers able to apply fundamental scientific research to solve real-world problems in the general area of sustainability in the built environment. The book contains twenty chapters covering climate change and sustainability, urban design and assessment (planning, travel systems, urban environment), urban management (drainage and waste), buildings (indoor environment, architectural design and renewable energy), simulation techniques (energy and airflow), management (end-user behaviour, facilities and information), assessment (materials and tools), procurement, and cases studies ( BRE Science Park). Chapters one and two present general global issues of climate change and sustainability in the built environment. Chapter one illustrates that applying the concepts of sustainability to the urban environment (buildings, infrastructure, transport) raises some key issues for tackling climate change, resource depletion and energy supply. Buildings, and the way we operate them, play a vital role in tackling global greenhouse gas emissions. Holistic thinking and an integrated approach in delivering a sustainable built environment is highlighted. Chapter two demonstrates the important role that buildings (their services and appliances) and building energy policies play in this area. Substantial investment is required to implement such policies, much of which will earn a good return. Chapters three and four discuss urban planning and transport. Chapter three stresses the importance of using modelling techniques at the early stage for strategic master-planning of a new development and a retrofit programme. A general framework for sustainable urban-scale master planning is introduced. This chapter also addressed the needs for the development of a more holistic and pragmatic view of how the built environment performs, , in order to produce tools to help design for a higher level of sustainability and, in particular, how people plan, design and use it. Chapter four discusses microcirculation, which is an emerging and challenging area which relates to changing travel behaviour in the quest for urban sustainability. The chapter outlines the main drivers for travel behaviour and choices, the workings of the transport system and its interaction with urban land use. It also covers the new approach to managing urban traffic to maximise economic, social and environmental benefits. Chapters five and six present topics related to urban microclimates including thermal and acoustic issues. Chapter five discusses urban microclimates and urban heat island, as well as the interrelationship of urban design (urban forms and textures) with energy consumption and urban thermal comfort. It introduces models that can be used to analyse microclimates for a careful and considered approach for planning sustainable cities. Chapter six discusses urban acoustics, focusing on urban noise evaluation and mitigation. Various prediction and simulation methods for sound propagation in micro-scale urban areas, as well as techniques for large scale urban noise-mapping, are presented. Chapters seven and eight discuss urban drainage and waste management. The growing demand for housing and commercial developments in the 21st century, as well as the environmental pressure caused by climate change, has increased the focus on sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS). Chapter seven discusses the SUDS concept which is an integrated approach to surface water management. It takes into consideration quality, quantity and amenity aspects to provide a more pleasant habitat for people as well as increasing the biodiversity value of the local environment. Chapter eight discusses the main issues in urban waste management. It points out that population increases, land use pressures, technical and socio-economic influences have become inextricably interwoven and how ensuring a safe means of dealing with humanity’s waste becomes more challenging. Sustainable building design needs to consider healthy indoor environments, minimising energy for heating, cooling and lighting, and maximising the utilisation of renewable energy. Chapter nine considers how people respond to the physical environment and how that is used in the design of indoor environments. It considers environmental components such as thermal, acoustic, visual, air quality and vibration and their interaction and integration. Chapter ten introduces the concept of passive building design and its relevant strategies, including passive solar heating, shading, natural ventilation, daylighting and thermal mass, in order to minimise heating and cooling load as well as energy consumption for artificial lighting. Chapter eleven discusses the growing importance of integrating Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) into buildings, the range of technologies currently available and what to consider during technology selection processes in order to minimise carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels. The chapter draws to a close by highlighting the issues concerning system design and the need for careful integration and management of RETs once installed; and for home owners and operators to understand the characteristics of the technology in their building. Computer simulation tools play a significant role in sustainable building design because, as the modern built environment design (building and systems) becomes more complex, it requires tools to assist in the design process. Chapter twelve gives an overview of the primary benefits and users of simulation programs, the role of simulation in the construction process and examines the validity and interpretation of simulation results. Chapter thirteen particularly focuses on the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation method used for optimisation and performance assessment of technologies and solutions for sustainable building design and its application through a series of cases studies. People and building performance are intimately linked. A better understanding of occupants’ interaction with the indoor environment is essential to building energy and facilities management. Chapter fourteen focuses on the issue of occupant behaviour; principally, its impact, and the influence of building performance on them. Chapter fifteen explores the discipline of facilities management and the contribution that this emerging profession makes to securing sustainable building performance. The chapter highlights a much greater diversity of opportunities in sustainable building design that extends well into the operational life. Chapter sixteen reviews the concepts of modelling information flows and the use of Building Information Modelling (BIM), describing these techniques and how these aspects of information management can help drive sustainability. An explanation is offered concerning why information management is the key to ‘life-cycle’ thinking in sustainable building and construction. Measurement of building performance and sustainability is a key issue in delivering a sustainable built environment. Chapter seventeen identifies the means by which construction materials can be evaluated with respect to their sustainability. It identifies the key issues that impact the sustainability of construction materials and the methodologies commonly used to assess them. Chapter eighteen focuses on the topics of green building assessment, green building materials, sustainable construction and operation. Commonly-used assessment tools such as BRE Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM), Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design ( LEED) and others are introduced. Chapter nineteen discusses sustainable procurement which is one of the areas to have naturally emerged from the overall sustainable development agenda. It aims to ensure that current use of resources does not compromise the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Chapter twenty is a best-practice exemplar - the BRE Innovation Park which features a number of demonstration buildings that have been built to the UK Government’s Code for Sustainable Homes. It showcases the very latest innovative methods of construction, and cutting edge technology for sustainable buildings. In summary, Design and Management of Sustainable Built Environment book is the result of co-operation and dedication of individual chapter authors. We hope readers benefit from gaining a broad interdisciplinary knowledge of design and management in the built environment in the context of sustainability. We believe that the knowledge and insights of our academics and professional colleagues from different institutions and disciplines illuminate a way of delivering sustainable built environment through holistic integrated design and management approaches. Last, but not least, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all the chapter authors for their contribution. I would like to thank David Lim for his assistance in the editorial work and proofreading.

Building networks to work: an ethnographic study of informal routes into the UK construction industry and pathways for migrant up-skilling

The UK construction industry labour market is characterised by high levels of self-employment, sub-contracting, informality and flexibility. A corollary of this, and a sign of the increasing globalisation of construction, has been an increasing reliance on migrant labour, particularly that from the Eastern European Accession states. Yet, little is known about how their experiences within and outside of work shape their work in the construction sector. In this context better qualitative understandings of the social and communication networks through which migrant workers gain employment, create routes through the sector and develop their role/career are needed. We draw on two examples from a short-term ethnographic study of migrant construction worker employment experiences and practices in the town of Crewe in Cheshire, UK, to demonstrate how informal networks intersect with formal elements of the sector to facilitate both recruitment and up-skilling. Such research knowledge, we argue, offers new evidence of the importance of attending to migrant worker’s own experiences in the development of more transparent recruitment processes.

Regulatory hotspots are associated with plant gene expression under varying soil phosphorus supply in Brassica rapa

Gene expression is a quantitative trait that can be mapped genetically in structured populations to identify expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL). Genes and regulatory networks underlying complex traits can subsequently be inferred. Using a recently released genome sequence, we have defined cis- and trans-eQTL and their environmental response to low phosphorus (P) availability within a complex plant genome and found hotspots of trans-eQTL within the genome. Interval mapping, using P supply as a covariate, revealed 18,876 eQTL. trans-eQTL hotspots occurred on chromosomes A06 and A01 within Brassica rapa; these were enriched with P metabolism-related Gene Ontology terms (A06) as well as chloroplast-and photosynthesis-related terms (A01). We have also attributed heritability components to measures of gene expression across environments, allowing the identification of novel gene expression markers and gene expression changes associated with low P availability. Informative gene expression markers were used to map eQTL and P use efficiency-related QTL. Genes responsive to P supply had large environmental and heritable variance components. Regulatory loci and genes associated with P use efficiency identified through eQTL analysis are potential targets for further characterization and may have potential for crop improvement.

Social innovation in local food in Japan: Choku-bai-jo markets and Teikei cooperative practices

The working paper depicts two innovative examples from Japan of the direct supply of food, which involves the development of closer producer-consumer relations, as well as closer producer-producer networks. Choku-bai-jo and Teikei networks are considered as examples of practices implicated in alternative food networks (AFNs). One example has become a quasi-public endeavour and is seen by the Japanese state as a legitimate part of rural development and is promoted in support of small producers. The other is borne from consumer concern over food quality and, despite its long-lived status, this arrangement remains marginal and with little institutional or governmental support. A model which blends the organization and aims of both examples holds potential for a more sustainable eco-economic future.

Categorization and construction of rule based systems

Expert systems have been increasingly popular for commercial importance. A rule based system is a special type of an expert system, which consists of a set of ‘if-then‘ rules and can be applied as a decision support system in many areas such as healthcare, transportation and security. Rule based systems can be constructed based on both expert knowledge and data. This paper aims to introduce the theory of rule based systems especially on categorization and construction of such systems from a conceptual point of view. This paper also introduces rule based systems for classification tasks in detail.

Information and predictability: bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters as forecasters

The more information is available, and the more predictable are events, the better forecasts ought to be. In this paper forecasts by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters are evaluated for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three types of forecast represent different structures of information processing and as such would be expected to perform differently. By and large, events that are more predictable, and for which more information is available, do tend to be forecast better.

Soil phosphorus supply affects nodulation and N:P ratio in 11 perennial legume seedlings

Developing new perennial pasture legumes for low-P soils is a priority for Australian Mediterranean agro-ecosystems, where soil P availability is naturally low. As legumes tend to require higher P inputs than non-legumes, the ability of these plants to fix N2 under varying soil P levels must be determined. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the influence of soil P supply on plant N status and nodule formation in 11 perennial legumes, including some novel pasture species. We investigated the effect of applying soil P, ranging from 0 to 384 μg P/g dry soil, on plant N status and nodulation in a glasshouse. Without exogenous P supply, shoot N concentration and N : P ratio were higher than at 6 μg P/g soil. Shoot N concentration and N : P ratio then changed little with further increase in P supply. There was a close positive correlation between the number of nodules and shoot P concentration in 7 of the 11 species. Total nodule dry weight and the percentage of plant dry weight that consisted of nodules increased when P supply increased from 6 to 48 μg P/g. Without exogenous P addition, N : P ratios partitioned into a two-group distribution, with species having a N : P ratio of either >70 or <50 g/g. We suggest that plants with a high N : P ratio may take up N from the soil constitutively, while those with a low N : P ratio may regulate their N uptake in relation to internal P concentration. The flexibility of the novel pasture legumes in this study to adjust their leaf N concentrations under different levels of soil P supplements other published evidence of good growth and high P uptake and P-use efficiency under low soil P supply and suggests their potential as pasture plants in low-P soils in Australian Mediterranean agro-ecosystems warrants further attention.

Morphology of polymer networks formed in the chiral and non chiral phases of an anti-ferroelectric liquid crystal

We introduced photo-polymer networks into the various liquid crystalline phases of the antiferroelectric liquid crystal AS612 and studied the effects of these networks by measuring the temperature dependence of the Bragg wavelengths selectively reflected. After polymerization, the decrease in Bragg wavelengths with respect to the original values is consistent with a shorter helical pitch due to polymer network shrinkage. Also, by removing the liquid crystalline material, we are able to image the residual polymer network using scanning electron microscopy and polarized light microscopy. The polymer strands are a few microns thick and the networks show both chiral and non-chiral features.

Managing the complexity of information flow for construction small and medium-sized enterprises (CSMEs) using system dynamics and collaborative technologies

With the increase in e-commerce and the digitisation of design data and information,the construction sector has become reliant upon IT infrastructure and systems. The design and production process is more complex, more interconnected, and reliant upon greater information mobility, with seamless exchange of data and information in real time. Construction small and medium-sized enterprises (CSMEs), in particular,the speciality contractors, can effectively utilise cost-effective collaboration-enabling technologies, such as cloud computing, to help in the effective transfer of information and data to improve productivity. The system dynamics (SD) approach offers a perspective and tools to enable a better understanding of the dynamics of complex systems. This research focuses upon system dynamics methodology as a modelling and analysis tool in order to understand and identify the key drivers in the absorption of cloud computing for CSMEs. The aim of this paper is to determine how the use of system dynamics (SD) can improve the management of information flow through collaborative technologies leading to improved productivity. The data supporting the use of system dynamics was obtained through a pilot study consisting of questionnaires and interviews from five CSMEs in the UK house-building sector.

Farmer attitudes and livestock disease: exploring citizenship behaviour and peer monitoring across two BVD control schemes in the UK

The eradication of BVD in the UK is technically possible but appears to be socially untenable. The following study explored farmer attitudes to BVD control schemes in relation to advice networks and information sharing, shared aims and goals, motivation and benefits of membership, notions of BVD as a priority disease and attitudes toward regulation. Two concepts from the organisational management literature framed the study: citizenship behaviour where actions of individuals support the collective good (but are not explicitly recognised as such) and peer to peer monitoring (where individuals evaluate other’s behaviour). Farmers from two BVD control schemes in the UK participated in the study: Orkney Livestock Association BVD Eradication Scheme and Norfolk and Suffolk Cattle Breeders Association BVD Eradication Scheme. In total 162 farmers participated in the research (109 in-scheme and 53 out of scheme). The findings revealed that group helping and information sharing among scheme members was low with a positive BVD status subject to social censure. Peer monitoring in the form of gossip with regard to the animal health status of other farms was high. Interestingly, farmers across both schemes supported greater regulation with regard to animal health, largely due to the mistrust of fellow farmers following voluntary disease control measures. While group cohesiveness varied across the two schemes, without continued financial inducements, longer-term sustainability is questionable

Morphology and anatomy of inflorescence and inflorescence axis in Paepalanthus sect. Diphyomene Ruhland (Eriocaulaceae, Poales) and its taxonomic implications

Paepalanthus sect. Diphyomene has inflorescences arranged in umbels. The underlying bauplan seems however to be more complex and composed of several distinct subunits. Despite appearing superficially very similar, the morphology and anatomy of the inflorescences can supply useful information for the understanding of the phylogeny and taxonomy of the group. Inflorescences of Paepalanthus erectifolius, Paepalanthus flaccidus, Paepalanthus giganteus, and Paepalanthus polycladus were analyzed in regard to branching pattern and anatomy. In P. erectifolius, P. giganteus and P. polycladus the structure is a tribotryum, with terminal dibotryum, and with pherophylls bearing lateral dibotrya. In P. flaccidus, the inflorescence is a pleiobotryum, with terminal subunit, and without pherophylls. Secondary inflorescences may occur in all species without regular pattern. Especially when grown in sites without a pronounced seasonality, the distinction between enrichment zone (part of the same inflorescence) and new inflorescences may be obscured. The main anatomical features supplying diagnostic and phylogenetic information are as follows: (a) in the elongated axis, the thickness of the epidermal cell walls and the cortex size; (b) in the bracts, the quantity of parenchyma cells (c) in the scapes, the shape and the presence of a pith tissue. Therefore, P. sect. Diphyomene can be divided in two groups; group A is represented by P. erectifolius, P. giganteus and P. polycladus, and group B is represented by P. flaccidus. The differentiation is based in both, inflorescence structure and anatomy. Group A presents a life cycle and anatomical features similar to species of Actinocephalus. Molecular trees also point that these two groups are closely related. However, inflorescence morphology and blooming sequence are different. Species of group B present an inflorescence structure and anatomical features shared with many genera and species in Eriocaulaceae. The available molecular and morphology based phylogenies still do not allow a precise allocation of the group in the bulk of basal species of Paepalanthus collocated in P. sect. Variabiles. The characters described and used here supply however important information towards this goal. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The modularity of seed dispersal: differences in structure and robustness between bat- and bird-fruit networks

In networks of plant-animal mutualisms, different animal groups interact preferentially with different plants, thus forming distinct modules responsible for different parts of the service. However, what we currently know about seed dispersal networks is based only on birds. Therefore, we wished to fill this gap by studying bat-fruit networks and testing how they differ from bird-fruit networks. As dietary overlap of Neotropical bats and birds is low, they should form distinct mutualistic modules within local networks. Furthermore, since frugivory evolved only once among Neotropical bats, but several times independently among Neotropical birds, greater dietary overlap is expected among bats, and thus connectance and nestedness should be higher in bat-fruit networks. If bat-fruit networks have higher nestedness and connectance, they should be more robust to extinctions. We analyzed 1 mixed network of both bats and birds and 20 networks that consisted exclusively of either bats (11) or birds (9). As expected, the structure of the mixed network was both modular (M = 0.45) and nested (NODF = 0.31); one module contained only birds and two only bats. In 20 datasets with only one disperser group, bat-fruit networks (NODF = 0.53 +/- A 0.09, C = 0.30 +/- A 0.11) were more nested and had a higher connectance than bird-fruit networks (NODF = 0.42 +/- A 0.07, C = 0.22 +/- A 0.09). Unexpectedly, robustness to extinction of animal species was higher in bird-fruit networks (R = 0.60 +/- A 0.13) than in bat-fruit networks (R = 0.54 +/- A 0.09), and differences were explained mainly by species richness. These findings suggest that a modular structure also occurs in seed dispersal networks, similar to pollination networks. The higher nestedness and connectance observed in bat-fruit networks compared with bird-fruit networks may be explained by the monophyletic evolution of frugivory in Neotropical bats, among which the diets of specialists seem to have evolved from the pool of fruits consumed by generalists.

Assessing the Implications of Faculty Beliefs and Expectations for Information Literacy Instruction

This presentation was offered as part of the CUNY Library Assessment Conference, Reinventing Libraries: Reinventing Assessment, held at the City University of New York in June 2014.