Global response sensitivity analysis using probability distance measures and generalization of Sobol's analysis

The study introduces two new alternatives for global response sensitivity analysis based on the application of the L-2-norm and Hellinger's metric for measuring distance between two probabilistic models. Both the procedures are shown to be capable of treating dependent non-Gaussian random variable models for the input variables. The sensitivity indices obtained based on the L2-norm involve second order moments of the response, and, when applied for the case of independent and identically distributed sequence of input random variables, it is shown to be related to the classical Sobol's response sensitivity indices. The analysis based on Hellinger's metric addresses variability across entire range or segments of the response probability density function. The measure is shown to be conceptually a more satisfying alternative to the Kullback-Leibler divergence based analysis which has been reported in the existing literature. Other issues addressed in the study cover Monte Carlo simulation based methods for computing the sensitivity indices and sensitivity analysis with respect to grouped variables. Illustrative examples consist of studies on global sensitivity analysis of natural frequencies of a random multi-degree of freedom system, response of a nonlinear frame, and safety margin associated with a nonlinear performance function. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global response sensitivity analysis of uncertain structures

The problem of characterizing global sensitivity indices of structural response when system uncertainties are represented using probabilistic and (or) non-probabilistic modeling frameworks (which include intervals, convex functions, and fuzzy variables) is considered. These indices are characterized in terms of distance measures between a fiducial model in which uncertainties in all the pertinent variables are taken into account and a family of hypothetical models in which uncertainty in one or more selected variables are suppressed. The distance measures considered include various probability distance measures (Hellinger,l(2), and the Kantorovich metrics, and the Kullback-Leibler divergence) and Hausdorff distance measure as applied to intervals and fuzzy variables. Illustrations include studies on an uncertainly parametered building frame carrying uncertain loads. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Delineation of homogeneous hydrometeorological regions using wavelet-based global fuzzy cluster analysis

Identification of homogeneous hydrometeorological regions (HMRs) is necessary for various applications. Such regions are delineated by various approaches considering rainfall and temperature as two key variables. In conventional approaches, formation of regions is based on principal components (PCs)/statistics/indices determined from time series of the key variables at monthly and seasonal scales. An issue with use of PCs for regionalization is that they have to be extracted from contemporaneous records of hydrometeorological variables. Therefore, delineated regions may not be effective when the available records are limited over contemporaneous time period. A drawback associated with the use of statistics/indices is that they do not provide effective representation of the key variables when the records exhibit non-stationarity. Consequently, the resulting regions may not be effective for the desired purpose. To address these issues, a new approach is proposed in this article. The approach considers information extracted from wavelet transformations of the observed multivariate hydrometeorological time series as the basis for regionalization by global fuzzy c-means clustering procedure. The approach can account for dynamic variability in the time series and its non-stationarity (if any). Effectiveness of the proposed approach in forming HMRs is demonstrated by application to India, as there are no prior attempts to form such regions over the country. Drought severity-area-frequency (SAF) curves are constructed corresponding to each of the newly formed regions for the use in regional drought analysis, by considering standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as the drought indicator.

Effect of dark matter halo on global spiral modes in galaxies

Low surface brightness (LSB) galaxies form a major class of galaxies, and are characterized by low disc surface density and low star formation rate. These are known to be dominated by dark matter halo from the innermost regions. Here, we study the role of the dark matter halo on the grand-design, m = 2, spiral modes in a galactic disc by carrying out a global mode analysis in the WKB approximation. The Bohr-Sommerfeld quantization rule is used to determine how many discrete global spiral modes are permitted. First, a typical superthin, LSB galaxy UGC 7321 is studied by taking only the galactic disc, modelled as a fluid; and then the disc embedded in a dark matter halo. We find that both cases permit the existence of global spiral modes. This is in contrast to earlier results where the inclusion of dark matter halo was shown to nearly fully suppress local, swing-amplified spiral features. Although technically global modes are permitted in the fluid model as shown here, we argue that due to lack of tidal interactions, these are not triggered in LSB galaxies. For comparison, we carried out a similar analysis for the Galaxy, for which the dark matter halo does not dominate in the inner regions. We show that here too the dark matter halo has little effect, hence the disc embedded in a halo is also able to support global modes. The derived pattern speed of the global mode agrees fairly well with the observed value for the Galaxy.

Status of the MSSM Higgs sector using global analysis and direct search bounds, and future prospects at the High Luminosity LHC

In this paper, we search for the regions of the phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model (pMSSM) parameter space where one can expect to have moderate Higgs mixing angle (alpha) with relatively light (up to 600 GeV) additional Higgses after satisfying the current LHC data. We perform a global fit analysis using most updated data (till December 2014) from the LHC and Tevatron experiments. The constraints coming from the precision measurements of the rare b-decays B-s -> mu(+)mu(-) and b -> s gamma are also considered. We find that low M-A(less than or similar to 350) and high tan beta(greater than or similar to 25) regions are disfavored by the combined effect of the global analysis and flavor data. However, regions with Higgs mixing angle alpha similar to 0.1-0.8 are still allowed by the current data. We then study the existing direct search bounds on the heavy scalar/pseudoscalar (H/A) and charged Higgs boson (H-+/-) masses and branchings at the LHC. It has been found that regions with low to moderate values of tan beta with light additional Higgses (mass <= 600 GeV) are unconstrained by the data, while the regions with tan beta > 20 are excluded considering the direct search bounds by the LHC-8 data. The possibility to probe the region with tan beta <= 20 at the high luminosity run of LHC are also discussed, giving special attention to the H -> hh, H/A -> t (t) over bar and H/A -> tau(+)tau(-) decay modes.

Fuzzy Approach to Rank Global Climate Models

Eleven coupled model intercomparison project 3 based global climate models are evaluated for the case study of Upper Malaprabha catchment, India for precipitation rate. Correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square deviation, and skill score are considered as performance indicators for evaluation in fuzzy environment and assumed to have equal impact on the global climate models. Fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution is used to rank global climate models. Top three positions are occupied by MIROC3, GFDL2.1 and GISS with relative closeness of 0.7867, 0.7070, and 0.7068. IPSL-CM4, NCAR-PCMI occupied the tenth and eleventh positions with relative closeness of 0.4959 and 0.4562.

Global Response Sensitivity Analysis of Randomly Excited Dynamic Structures

The response of structural dynamical systems excited by multiple random excitations is considered. Two new procedures for evaluating global response sensitivity measures with respect to the excitation components are proposed. The first procedure is valid for stationary response of linear systems under stationary random excitations and is based on the notion of Hellinger's metric of distance between two power spectral density functions. The second procedure is more generally valid and is based on the l2 norm based distance measure between two probability density functions. Specific cases which admit exact solutions are presented, and solution procedures based on Monte Carlo simulations for more general class of problems are outlined. Illustrations include studies on a parametrically excited linear system and a nonlinear random vibration problem involving moving oscillator-beam system that considers excitations attributable to random support motions and guide-way unevenness. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics: Evaluation of constraints from global tomography models

With the advances in technology, seismological theory, and data acquisition, a number of high-resolution seismic tomography models have been published. However, discrepancies between tomography models often arise from different theoretical treatments of seismic wave propagation, different inversion strategies, and different data sets. Using a fixed velocity-to-density scaling and a fixed radial viscosity profile, we compute global mantle flow models associated with the different tomography models and test the impact of these for explaining surface geophysical observations (geoid, dynamic topography, stress, and strain rates). We use the joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics approach of Ghosh and Holt (2012) to compute the full lithosphere stresses, except that we use HC for the mantle circulation model, which accounts for the primary flow-coupling features associated with density-driven mantle flow. Our results show that the seismic tomography models of S40RTS and SAW642AN provide a better match with surface observables on a global scale than other models tested. Both of these tomography models have important similarities, including upwellings located in Pacific, Eastern Africa, Iceland, and mid-ocean ridges in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean and downwelling flows mainly located beneath the Andes, the Middle East, and central and Southeast Asia.

Toward a High-Resolution Monitoring of Continental Surface Water Extent and Dynamics, at Global Scale: from GIEMS (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites) to SWOT (Surface Water Ocean Topography)

Up to now, high-resolution mapping of surface water extent from satellites has only been available for a few regions, over limited time periods. The extension of the temporal and spatial coverage was difficult, due to the limitation of the remote sensing technique e.g., the interaction of the radiation with vegetation or cloud for visible observations or the temporal sampling with the synthetic aperture radar (SAR)]. The advantages and the limitations of the various satellite techniques are reviewed. The need to have a global and consistent estimate of the water surfaces over long time periods triggered the development of a multi-satellite methodology to obtain consistent surface water all over the globe, regardless of the environments. The Global Inundation Extent from Multi-satellites (GIEMS) combines the complementary strengths of satellite observations from the visible to the microwave, to produce a low-resolution monthly dataset () of surface water extent and dynamics. Downscaling algorithms are now developed and applied to GIEMS, using high-spatial-resolution information from visible, near-infrared, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images, or from digital elevation models. Preliminary products are available down to 500-m spatial resolution. This work bridges the gaps and prepares for the future NASA/CNES Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission to be launched in 2020. SWOT will delineate surface water extent estimates and their water storage with an unprecedented spatial resolution and accuracy, thanks to a SAR in an interferometry mode. When available, the SWOT data will be adopted to downscale GIEMS, to produce a long time series of water surfaces at global scale, consistent with the SWOT observations.

Cold gas in cluster cores: global stability analysis and non-linear simulations of thermal instability

We perform global linear stability analysis and idealized numerical simulations in global thermal balance to understand the condensation of cold gas from hot/virial atmospheres (coronae), in particular the intracluster medium (ICM). We pay particular attention to geometry (e.g. spherical versus plane-parallel) and the nature of the gravitational potential. Global linear analysis gives a similar value for the fastest growing thermal instability modes in spherical and Cartesian geometries. Simulations and observations suggest that cooling in haloes critically depends on the ratio of the cooling time to the free-fall time (t(cool)/t(ff)). Extended cold gas condenses out of the ICM only if this ratio is smaller than a threshold value close to 10. Previous works highlighted the difference between the nature of cold gas condensation in spherical and plane-parallel atmospheres; namely, cold gas condensation appeared easier in spherical atmospheres. This apparent difference due to geometry arises because the previous plane-parallel simulations focused on in situ condensation of multiphase gas but spherical simulations studied condensation anywhere in the box. Unlike previous claims, our non-linear simulations show that there are only minor differences in cold gas condensation, either in situ or anywhere, for different geometries. The amount of cold gas depends on the shape of tcool/tff; gas has more time to condense if gravitational acceleration decreases towards the centre. In our idealized plane-parallel simulations with heating balancing cooling in each layer, there can be significant mass/energy/momentum transfer across layers that can trigger condensation and drive tcool/tff far beyond the critical value close to 10.

"Aplicación de un sistema multimétrico para evaluar la calidad del agua superficial en la microcuenca El Coyote del Rio Estelí, Nicaragua"

En la microcuenca El Coyote localizada en el municipio de Condega, Estelí, se evaluó la calidad del agua superficial de sde febrero del 2010 a febrero del 2011. El propósito fue la identificación de indicadores que faciliten la vigilancia y monitoreo de la calidad del agua . Se integró un sistema multimétrico utilizando las características físicoquímicas y bacteriológicas, macro invertebrados acuáticos, la caracterización morfométrica de la microcuenca y la información resultante a nivel de comunidad (cambios en el uso del suelo). En la determinación de la relación de la calidad del agua con la estructura de la macrofauna acuática (macroinvertebrados) se usó el método Biological Monitoring Working Party (BMWP/Col ) . La microcuenca tiene 144 afluentes con una forma oval - oblonga - alargada, y su curva hipsométrica refleja un estado de equilibrio relativo de juvenil a madurez. El uso del suelo es inadecuado y su entorno natural fue valorado como subóptimo. Aunque los parámetros fisico químicos indicaron que las aguas son alcalinas, con un nivel aceptable de oxigeno disuelto, categorizadas según el Diagrama de Riverside como aguas aptas par a riego (C2 - S1), y aceptables según valores determinados para DBO 5 y DQO; sin embargo, requieren de un tratamiento de descontaminación previo a su uso doméstico y agropecuario. Además, debido a la presencia de coliformes fecales estas aguas no están aptas para consumo humano . Los macroinvertebrados varían, según la estacionalidad, en riqueza, abundancia y distribución, presentando una disminución en el número de individuos en la época lluviosa (t= 5.21, p<2.18E - 07). E l 6 8 . 91 % de los macroinvertebrados bioin dicadores se distribuyeron en cinco familias : Leptohyphidae , Baetidae , Hydropsychidae , Chironomidae y Physidae , siendo el cariotipo piedra el que present ó mayor diversidad y abundancia . El promedio del BMWP /Col fue de 60.06, indicando una calidad del agua entre dudosa y aceptable , y el índice ASPT de 6.71 señala una contaminación moderada ; estos resultados coincide n con los obtenidos utilizando la batería de indicadores fisicoquímicos y bacteriológicos .

Evaluación del establecimiento de Moringa oleífera Lam. (Marango) en un sistema de cercas viva en la Finca Santa Rosa - UNA, Managua, Nicaragua

Con el objetivo de evaluar el establecimiento de Moringa oleífera en un sistema de cercas viva, se llevo a cabo un experimento, se realizó en la Finca Santa Rosa perteneciente a la Universidad Nacional Agraria. El estudio se realizo entre Octubre del 2012 y Mayo del 2013. Dos distancias de siembra (1.5 y 2 m) plantadas bajo un diseño de Bloques Completos al Azar fueron evaluadas como tratamientos; a los cuales se les determinaron los siguientes variables: número de yemas y rebrotes, longitud de rebrotes y sobrevivencia de la especie. No se encontraron diferencias significativas entre los tratamientos, para la sobrevivencia al final del estudio; los valores correspondieron al 25.78% para la distancia 2m y 29.69% para la distancia 1.5m. La producción de yemas en la especie mantuvo una tendencia positiva durante el periodo de estudio. No se encontraron diferencias estadísticas para la variable número de rebrotes; demostrando que la producción de rebrotes en la plantación fue relativamente pobre con valores de 3 rebrotes en promedio. Valores medios de 6.27 cm de crecimiento en la longitud de rebrotes, y no determinándose diferencias significativas entre las distancias comparadas. Se concluye que se pueden utilizar las dos distancias de siembra con M. oleífera como postes vivo en cercas perimetrales de áreas de pastoreo; siempre y cuando el establecimiento coincida con la época lluviosa y el manejo sea eficiente.