On the trail of interannual variability in phytoplankton and climate [abstract and figures]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A selective but nontheless real record of phytoplankton activity over the Santa Barbara Basin can be obtained from the underlying varved sediments. The phytoplankton groups preserved are: diatoms (frustrules and spores), silicoflagellates, dinoflagellates (cysts) and coccoliths.

Dendroclimatic reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, and pressure patterns over the western and central USA, 1602-1961 [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Verified reconstructions of seasonal temperature, precipitation and sea-level pressure over North America and the North Pacific have been derived from 65 arid-site tree-ring chronologies in the North American West. Significant reconstructions were obtained for temperature for wide areas in the West and mid-continent. Precipitation reconstructions were significant only in the West, and pressure was reconstructed over wide areas of the North Pacific Ocean and the North American continent.

Annual stream flow variability over the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The variability of mean annual streamflow over the western United States is described and related to indices of large scale atmospheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean and western U.S. Principal component analysis reveal [sic] four statistically significant modes of streamflow variability across the region.

Periodic autoregressive moving average models for the analysis of streamflow [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Streamflow values show definite seasonal patterns in their month-to-month correlation structure. The structure also seems to vary as a function of the type of stream (coastal versus mountain or humid versus arid region). The standard autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is incapable of reproducing this correlation structure. ... A periodic ARMA time series model is one in which an ARMA model is fitted to each month or season but the parameters of the model are constrained to be periodic according to a Fourier series. This constraint greatly reduces the number of parameters but still leaves the flexibility for matching the seasonally varying correlograms.

400 years of precipitation variability in central and southern California reconstructed from tree-rings [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Precipitation variability at 31 stations hanging from San Diego to San Francisco and from the coast to the Sierras was characterized ...

A multi-basin seasonal streamflow model for the Sierra Nevada

Linear regression models are constructed to predict seasonal runoff by fitting streamflow to temperature, precipitation, and snow water content across a range of elevations. The models are quite successful in capturing the differences in discharge between different elevation watersheds and their interannual variations. This exercise thus provides insight into seasonal changes in streamflow at different elevation watersheds that might occur under a changed climate.

Specificity of reflex adaptation for task-relevant variability.

The motor system responds to perturbations with reflexes, such as the vestibulo-ocular reflex or stretch reflex, whose gains adapt in response to novel and fixed changes in the environment, such as magnifying spectacles or standing on a tilting platform. Here we demonstrate a reflex response to shifts in the hand's visual location during reaching, which occurs before the onset of voluntary reaction time, and investigate how its magnitude depends on statistical properties of the environment. We examine the change in reflex response to two different distributions of visuomotor discrepancies, both of which have zero mean and equal variance across trials. Critically one distribution is task relevant and the other task irrelevant. The task-relevant discrepancies are maintained to the end of the movement, whereas the task-irrelevant discrepancies are transient such that no discrepancy exists at the end of the movement. The reflex magnitude was assessed using identical probe trials under both distributions. We find opposite directions of adaptation of the reflex response under these two distributions, with increased reflex magnitudes for task-relevant variability and decreased reflex magnitudes for task-irrelevant variability. This demonstrates modulation of reflex magnitudes in the absence of a fixed change in the environment, and shows that reflexes are sensitive to the statistics of tasks with modulation depending on whether the variability is task relevant or task irrelevant.

Climatic controls on diatom succession at Elk Lake, Minnesota [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Sediment traps placed in the profundal region of Elk Lake, north central Minnesota during the 1979 spring and 1983-84 fall and spring seasons monitored seasonal diatom production for two climatically distinctive periods.

Trends and long-term variability of ocean properties at Ocean Station P in the northeast Pacific Ocean [abstract]

Twenty-seven years (1956-1983) of oceanographic data collected at Ocean Station P (50°N/145°W), as well as supplementary data obtained in its neighborhood, have been examined for trends and interannual variability in the northeast Pacific Ocean. There is evidence that the water is warming and freshening and that the isopycnal surfaces are deepening. Trends in oxyty are mostly not significant. The most common periods for the interannual variability appear to be 2 1/2 and 6-7 years. The vertical movement of water accounts for one half of the changes in temperature and salinity and 30% of those in oxyty. Other factors, such as a shift of water masses, may also be important.

Seasonal and interannual variation in juvenile salmonids and associated fish assemblage in open waters of the lower Columbia River estuary

The transition between freshwater and marine environments is associated with high mortality for juvenile anadromous salmonids, yet little is known about this critical period in many large rivers. To address this deficiency, we investigated the estuarine ecology of juvenile salmonids and their associated fish assemblage in open-water habitats of the lower Columbia River estuary during spring of 2007–10. For coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch), sockeye (O. nerka), chum (O. keta), and yearling (age 1.0) Chinook (O. tshawytscha) salmon, and steelhead (O. mykiss), we observed a consistent seasonal pattern characterized by extremely low abundances in mid-April, maximum abundances in May, and near absence by late June. Subyearling (age 0.0) Chinook salmon were most abundant in late June. Although we observed interannual variation in the presence, abundance, and size of juvenile salmonids, no single year was exceptional across all species-and-age classes. We estimated that >90% of juvenile Chinook and coho salmon and steelhead were of hatchery origin, a rate higher than previously reported. In contrast to juvenile salmonids, the abundance and composition of the greater estuarine fish assemblage, of which juvenile salmon were minor members, were extremely variable and likely responding to dynamic physical conditions in the estuary. Comparisons with studies conducted 3 decades earlier suggest striking changes in the estuarine fish assemblage—changes that have unknown but potentially important consequences for juvenile salmon in the Columbia River estuary.

Temporal trends (2000–2011) and influences on fishery-independent catch rates for loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) at an important coastal foraging region in the southeastern United States

Seasonal trawling was conducted randomly in coastal (depths of 4.6–17 m) waters from St. Augustine, Florida, (29.9°N) to Winyah Bay, South Carolina (33.1°N), during 2000–03, 2008–09, and 2011 to assess annual trends in the relative abundance of sea turtles. A total of 1262 loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) were captured in 23% (951) of 4207 sampling events. Capture rates (overall and among prevalent 5-cm size classes) were analyzed through the use of a generalized linear model with log link function for the 4097 events that had complete observations for all 25 model parameters. Final models explained 6.6% (70.1–75.0 cm minimum straight-line carapace length [SCLmin]) to 14.9% (75.1–80.0 cm SCLmin) of deviance in the data set. Sampling year, geographic subregion, and distance from shore were retained as significant terms in all final models, and these terms collectively accounted for 6.2% of overall model deviance (range: 4.5–11.7% of variance among 5-cm size classes). We retained 18 parameters only in a subset of final models: 4 as exclusively significant terms, 5 as a mixture of significant or nonsignificant terms, and 9 as exclusively nonsignificant terms. Four parameters also were dropped completely from all final models. The generalized linear model proved appropriate for monitoring trends for this data set that was laden with zero values for catches and was compiled for a globally protected species. Because we could not account for much model deviance, metrics other than those examined in our study may better explain catch variability and, once elucidated, their inclusion in the generalized linear model should improve model fits.

Quantifying intrapopulation variability in stable isotope data for Spotted Seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus)

Stable isotope (SI) values of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) are useful for determining the trophic connectivity between species within an ecosystem, but interpretation of these data involves important assumptions about sources of intrapopulation variability. We compared intrapopulation variability in δ13C and δ15N for an estuarine omnivore, Spotted Seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus), to test assumptions and assess the utility of SI analysis for delineation of the connectivity of this species with other species in estuarine food webs. Both δ13C and δ15N values showed patterns of enrichment in fish caught from coastal to offshore sites and as a function of fish size. Results for δ13C were consistent in liver and muscle tissue, but liver δ15N showed a negative bias when compared with muscle that increased with absolute δ15N value. Natural variability in both isotopes was 5–10 times higher than that observed in laboratory populations, indicating that environmentally driven intrapopulation variability is detectable particularly after individual bias is removed through sample pooling. These results corroborate the utility of SI analysis for examination of the position of Spotted Seatrout in an estuarine food web. On the basis of these results, we conclude that interpretation of SI data in fishes should account for measurable and ecologically relevant intrapopulation variability for each species and system on a case by case basis.

Home range and seasonal movements of Black Sea Bass (Centropristis striata) during their inshore residency at a reef in the mid-Atlantic Bight

Black Sea Bass (Centropristis striata) in the mid-Atlantic Bight undertake seasonal cross-shelf movements to occupy inshore rocky reefs and hardbottom habitats between spring and fall. Shelf-wide migrations of this stock are well documented, but movements and home ranges of fish during their inshore residency period have not been described. We tagged 122 Black Sea Bass with acoustic transmitters at a mid-Atlantic reef to estimate home-range size and factors that influence movements (>400 m) at a 46.1-km2 study site between May and November 2003. Activity of Black Sea Bass was greatest and most consistent during summer but declined rapidly in September as water temperatures at the bottom of the seafloor increased on the inner shelf. Black Sea Bass maintained relatively large home ranges that were fish-size invariant but highly variable (13.7–736.4 ha), underscoring the importance of large sample sizes in examination of population-level characteristics of mobile species with complex social interactions. On the basis of observed variations in movement patterns and the size of home ranges, we postulate the existence of groups of conspecifics that exhibit similar space-use behaviors. The group of males released earlier in the tagging period used larger home ranges than the group of males released later in our study. In addition, mean activity levels and the probability of movement among acoustic stations varied among groups of fish in a complex manner that depended on sex. These differences in movement behaviors may increase the vulnerability of male fish to passive fishing gears, further exacerbating variation in exploitation rates for this species among reefs.

ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years

Latin America has been shown to be susceptible to climatic anomalies during El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (eg, Aceituno 1988; Ropelewshi and Halpert 1987; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). While these studies have emphasized ENSO-related rainfall and temperature anomalies over Central and South America, less work has been done on the climatic effects of ENSO over the Mexican region. In this study we are investigating interannual and intraseasonal fluctuation in temperature and precipitation over the southwestern United States and Mexico since the turn of the century. We are particularly interested in the effects of ENSO on the interannual variability over this region. This report focuses on the association between ENSO and interannual variability of precipitation over Mexico.