Developing methodologies to allow the robust prediction dynamic context dominated by perturbations

El principal objectiu del projecte era desenvolupar millores conceptuals i metodològiques que permetessin una millor predicció dels canvis en la distribució de les espècies (a una escala de paisatge) derivats de canvis ambientals en un context dominat per pertorbacions. En un primer estudi, vàrem comparar l'eficàcia de diferents models dinàmics per a predir la distribució de l'hortolà (Emberiza hortulana). Els nostres resultats indiquen que un model híbrid que combini canvis en la qualitat de l'hàbitat, derivats de canvis en el paisatge, amb un model poblacional espacialment explícit és una aproximació adequada per abordar canvis en la distribució d'espècies en contextos de dinàmica ambiental elevada i una capacitat de dispersió limitada de l'espècie objectiu. En un segon estudi abordarem la calibració mitjançant dades de seguiment de models de distribució dinàmics per a 12 espècies amb preferència per hàbitats oberts. Entre les conclusions extretes destaquem: (1) la necessitat de que les dades de seguiment abarquin aquelles àrees on es produeixen els canvis de qualitat; (2) el biaix que es produeix en la estimació dels paràmetres del model d'ocupació quan la hipòtesi de canvi de paisatge o el model de qualitat d'hàbitat són incorrectes. En el darrer treball estudiarem el possible impacte en 67 espècies d’ocells de diferents règims d’incendis, definits a partir de combinacions de nivells de canvi climàtic (portant a un augment esperat de la mida i freqüència d’incendis forestals), i eficiència d’extinció per part dels bombers. Segons els resultats dels nostres models, la combinació de factors antropogènics del regim d’incendis, tals com l’abandonament rural i l’extinció, poden ser més determinants per als canvis de distribució que els efectes derivats del canvi climàtic. Els productes generats inclouen tres publicacions científiques, una pàgina web amb resultats del projecte i una llibreria per a l'entorn estadístic R.

Simulation methods with extended stability for stiff biochemical kinetics

Background: With increasing computer power, simulating the dynamics of complex systems in chemistry and biology is becoming increasingly routine. The modelling of individual reactions in (bio)chemical systems involves a large number of random events that can be simulated by the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The key quantity is the step size, or waiting time, τ, whose value inversely depends on the size of the propensities of the different channel reactions and which needs to be re-evaluated after every firing event. Such a discrete event simulation may be extremely expensive, in particular for stiff systems where τ can be very short due to the fast kinetics of some of the channel reactions. Several alternative methods have been put forward to increase the integration step size. The so-called τ-leap approach takes a larger step size by allowing all the reactions to fire, from a Poisson or Binomial distribution, within that step. Although the expected value for the different species in the reactive system is maintained with respect to more precise methods, the variance at steady state can suffer from large errors as τ grows. Results: In this paper we extend Poisson τ-leap methods to a general class of Runge-Kutta (RK) τ-leap methods. We show that with the proper selection of the coefficients, the variance of the extended τ-leap can be well-behaved, leading to significantly larger step sizes.Conclusions: The benefit of adapting the extended method to the use of RK frameworks is clear in terms of speed of calculation, as the number of evaluations of the Poisson distribution is still one set per time step, as in the original τ-leap method. The approach paves the way to explore new multiscale methods to simulate (bio)chemical systems.

Evaluation of Different Methods to Calculate Heavy-Truck VMT, Final Report, December 2004

Reliable estimates of heavy-truck volumes are important in a number of transportation applications. Estimates of truck volumes are necessary for pavement design and pavement management. Truck volumes are important in traffic safety. The number of trucks on the road also influences roadway capacity and traffic operations. Additionally, heavy vehicles pollute at higher rates than passenger vehicles. Consequently, reliable estimates of heavy-truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are important in creating accurate inventories of on-road emissions. This research evaluated three different methods to calculate heavy-truck annual average daily traffic (AADT) which can subsequently be used to estimate vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Traffic data from continuous count stations provided by the Iowa DOT were used to estimate AADT for two different truck groups (single-unit and multi-unit) using the three methods. The first method developed monthly and daily expansion factors for each truck group. The second and third methods created general expansion factors for all vehicles. Accuracy of the three methods was compared using n-fold cross-validation. In n-fold cross-validation, data are split into n partitions, and data from the nth partition are used to validate the remaining data. A comparison of the accuracy of the three methods was made using the estimates of prediction error obtained from cross-validation. The prediction error was determined by averaging the squared error between the estimated AADT and the actual AADT. Overall, the prediction error was the lowest for the method that developed expansion factors separately for the different truck groups for both single- and multi-unit trucks. This indicates that use of expansion factors specific to heavy trucks results in better estimates of AADT, and, subsequently, VMT, than using aggregate expansion factors and applying a percentage of trucks. Monthly, daily, and weekly traffic patterns were also evaluated. Significant variation exists in the temporal and seasonal patterns of heavy trucks as compared to passenger vehicles. This suggests that the use of aggregate expansion factors fails to adequately describe truck travel patterns.

Direct and indirect root defences of milkweed (Asclepias syriaca): trophic cascades, trade-offs and novel methods for studying subterranean herbivory

P>1. Entomopathogenic nematodes can function as indirect defence for plants that are attacked by root herbivores. By releasing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), plants signal the presence of host insects and thereby attract nematodes.2. Nonetheless, how roots deploy indirect defences, how indirect defences relate to direct defences, and the ecological consequences of root defence allocation for herbivores and plant biomass are essentially unknown.3. We investigate a natural below-ground tritrophic system, involving common milkweed, a specialist root-boring beetle and entomopathogenic nematodes, and asked whether there is a negative genetic correlation between direct defences (root cardenolides) and indirect defences (emission of volatiles in the roots and nematode attraction), and between constitutive and inducible defences.4. Volatiles of roots were analysed using two distinct sampling methods. First, we collected emissions from living Asclepias syriaca roots by dynamic headspace sampling. This method showed that attacked A. syriaca plants emit five times higher levels of volatiles than control plants. Secondly, we used a solid phase micro-extraction (SPME) method to sample the full pool of volatiles in roots for genetic correlations of volatile biosynthesis.5. Field experiments showed that entomopathogenic nematodes prevent the loss of biomass to root herbivory. Additionally, suppression of root herbivores was mediated directly by cardenolides and indirectly by the attraction of nematodes. Genetic families of plants with high cardenolides benefited less from nematodes compared to low-cardenolide families, suggesting that direct and indirect defences may be redundant. Although constitutive and induced root defences traded off within each strategy (for both direct and indirect defence, cardenolides and VOCs, respectively), we found no trade-off between the two strategies.6. Synthesis. Constitutive expression and inducibility of defences may trade off because of resource limitation or because they are redundant. Direct and indirect defences do not trade off, likely because they may not share a limiting resource and because independently they may promote defence across the patchiness of herbivore attack and nematode presence in the field. Indeed, some redundancy in strategies may be necessary to increase effective defence, but for each strategy, an economy of deployment reduces overall costs.

Practical considerations for conducting ecotoxicity test methods with manufactured nanomaterials: what have we learnt so far?

This review paper reports the consensus of a technical workshop hosted by the European network, NanoImpactNet (NIN). The workshop aimed to review the collective experience of working at the bench with manufactured nanomaterials (MNMs), and to recommend modifications to existing experimental methods and OECD protocols. Current procedures for cleaning glassware are appropriate for most MNMs, although interference with electrodes may occur. Maintaining exposure is more difficult with MNMs compared to conventional chemicals. A metal salt control is recommended for experiments with metallic MNMs that may release free metal ions. Dispersing agents should be avoided, but if they must be used, then natural or synthetic dispersing agents are possible, and dispersion controls essential. Time constraints and technology gaps indicate that full characterisation of test media during ecotoxicity tests is currently not practical. Details of electron microscopy, dark-field microscopy, a range of spectroscopic methods (EDX, XRD, XANES, EXAFS), light scattering techniques (DLS, SLS) and chromatography are discussed. The development of user-friendly software to predict particle behaviour in test media according to DLVO theory is in progress, and simple optical methods are available to estimate the settling behaviour of suspensions during experiments. However, for soil matrices such simple approaches may not be applicable. Alternatively, a Critical Body Residue approach may be taken in which body concentrations in organisms are related to effects, and toxicity thresholds derived. For microbial assays, the cell wall is a formidable barrier to MNMs and end points that rely on the test substance penetrating the cell may be insensitive. Instead assays based on the cell envelope should be developed for MNMs. In algal growth tests, the abiotic factors that promote particle aggregation in the media (e.g. ionic strength) are also important in providing nutrients, and manipulation of the media to control the dispersion may also inhibit growth. Controls to quantify shading effects, and precise details of lighting regimes, shaking or mixing should be reported in algal tests. Photosynthesis may be more sensitive than traditional growth end points for algae and plants. Tests with invertebrates should consider non-chemical toxicity from particle adherence to the organisms. The use of semi-static exposure methods with fish can reduce the logistical issues of waste water disposal and facilitate aspects of animal husbandry relevant to MMNs. There are concerns that the existing bioaccumulation tests are conceptually flawed for MNMs and that new test(s) are required. In vitro testing strategies, as exemplified by genotoxicity assays, can be modified for MNMs, but the risk of false negatives in some assays is highlighted. In conclusion, most protocols will require some modifications and recommendations are made to aid the researcher at the bench. [Authors]

Methods and representativeness of European surveys in children and adolescents: the KIDSCREEN study

Background: The objective of the present study was to compare three different sampling and questionnaire administration methods used in the international KIDSCREEN study in terms of participation, response rates, and external validity. Methods: Children and adolescents aged 8–18 years were surveyed in 13 European countries using either telephone sampling and mail administration, random sampling of school listings followed by classroom or mail administration, or multistage random sampling of communities and households with self-administration of the survey materials at home. Cooperation, completion, and response rates were compared across countries and survey methods. Data on non-respondents was collected in 8 countries. The population fraction (PF, respondents in each sex-age, or educational level category, divided by the population in the same category from Eurostat census data) and population fraction ratio (PFR, ratio of PF) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals were used to analyze differences by country between the KIDSCREEN samples and a reference Eurostat population. Results: Response rates by country ranged from 18.9% to 91.2%. Response rates were highest in the school-based surveys (69.0%–91.2%). Sample proportions by age and gender were similar to the reference Eurostat population in most countries, although boys and adolescents were slightly underrepresented (PFR <1). Parents in lower educational categories were less likely to participate (PFR <1 in 5 countries). Parents in higher educational categories were overrepresented when the school and household sampling strategies were used (PFR = 1.78–2.97). Conclusion: School-based sampling achieved the highest overall response rates but also produced slightly more biased samples than the other methods. The results suggest that the samples were sufficiently representative to provide reference population values for the KIDSCREEN instrument.

Impedance boundary conditions for pseudo-spectral time-domain methods in room acoustics

The pseudo-spectral time-domain (PSTD) method is an alternative time-marching method to classicalleapfrog finite difference schemes in the simulation of wave-like propagating phenomena. It is basedon the fundamentals of the Fourier transform to compute the spatial derivatives of hyperbolic differential equations. Therefore, it results in an isotropic operator that can be implemented in an efficient way for room acoustics simulations. However, one of the first issues to be solved consists on modeling wallabsorption. Unfortunately, there are no references in the technical literature concerning to that problem. In this paper, assuming real and constant locally reacting impedances, several proposals to overcome this problem are presented, validated and compared to analytical solutions in different scenarios.

Topological comparison of methods for predicting transcriptional cooperativity in yeast

Background: The cooperative interaction between transcription factors has a decisive role in the control of the fate of the eukaryotic cell. Computational approaches for characterizing cooperative transcription factors in yeast, however, are based on different rationales and provide a low overlap between their results. Because the wealth of information contained in protein interaction networks and regulatory networks has proven highly effective in elucidating functional relationships between proteins, we compared different sets of cooperative transcription factor pairs (predicted by four different computational methods) within the frame of those networks. Results: Our results show that the overlap between the sets of cooperative transcription factors predicted by the different methods is low yet significant. Cooperative transcription factors predicted by all methods are closer and more clustered in the protein interaction network than expected by chance. On the other hand, members of a cooperative transcription factor pair neither seemed to regulate each other nor shared similar regulatory inputs, although they do regulate similar groups of target genes. Conclusion: Despite the different definitions of transcriptional cooperativity and the different computational approaches used to characterize cooperativity between transcription factors, the analysis of their roles in the framework of the protein interaction network and the regulatory network indicates a common denominator for the predictions under study. The knowledge of the shared topological properties of cooperative transcription factor pairs in both networks can be useful not only for designing better prediction methods but also for better understanding the complexities of transcriptional control in eukaryotes.

The Cornella Health Interview Survey Follow-Up (CHIS.FU) Study: design, methods, and response rate

Background: The aim of this report is to describe the main characteristics of the design, including response rates, of the Cornella Health Interview Survey Follow-up Study. Methods: The original cohort consisted of 2,500 subjects (1,263 women and 1,237 men) interviewed as part of the 1994 Cornella Health Interview Study. A record linkage to update the address and vital status of the cohort members was carried out using, first a deterministic method, and secondly a probabilistic one, based on each subject's first name and surnames. Subsequently, we attempted to locate the cohort members to conduct the phone follow-up interviews. A pilot study was carried out to test the overall feasibility and to modify some procedures before the field work began. Results: After record linkage, 2,468 (98.7%) subjects were successfully traced. Of these, 91 (3.6%) were deceased, 259 (10.3%) had moved to other towns, and 50 (2.0%) had neither renewed their last municipal census documents nor declared having moved. After using different strategies to track and to retain cohort members, we traced 92% of the CHIS participants. From them, 1,605 subjects answered the follow-up questionnaire. Conclusion: The computerized record linkage maximized the success of the follow-up that was carried out 7 years after the baseline interview. The pilot study was useful to increase the efficiency in tracing and interviewing the respondents.

Impedance boundary conditions for pseudo-spectral time-domain methods in room acoustics

The Pseudo-Spectral Time Domain (PSTD) method is an alternative time-marching method to classical leapfrog finite difference schemes inthe simulation of wave-like propagating phenomena. It is based on the fundamentals of the Fourier transform to compute the spatial derivativesof hyperbolic differential equations. Therefore, it results in an isotropic operator that can be implemented in an efficient way for room acousticssimulations. However, one of the first issues to be solved consists on modeling wall absorption. Unfortunately, there are no references in thetechnical literature concerning to that problem. In this paper, assuming real and constant locally reacting impedances, several proposals toovercome this problem are presented, validated and compared to analytical solutions in different scenarios.

Dynamic estimation of three-dimensional cerebrovascular deformation from rotational angiography

Purpose: The objective of this study is to investigate the feasibility of detecting and quantifying 3D cerebrovascular wall motion from a single 3D rotational x-ray angiography (3DRA) acquisition within a clinically acceptable time and computing from the estimated motion field for the further biomechanical modeling of the cerebrovascular wall. Methods: The whole motion cycle of the cerebral vasculature is modeled using a 4D B-spline transformation, which is estimated from a 4D to 2D + t image registration framework. The registration is performed by optimizing a single similarity metric between the entire 2D + t measured projection sequence and the corresponding forward projections of the deformed volume at their exact time instants. The joint use of two acceleration strategies, together with their implementation on graphics processing units, is also proposed so as to reach computation times close to clinical requirements. For further characterizing vessel wall properties, an approximation of the wall thickness changes is obtained through a strain calculation. Results: Evaluation on in silico and in vitro pulsating phantom aneurysms demonstrated an accurate estimation of wall motion curves. In general, the error was below 10% of the maximum pulsation, even in the situation when substantial inhomogeneous intensity pattern was present. Experiments on in vivo data provided realistic aneurysm and vessel wall motion estimates, whereas in regions where motion was neither visible nor anatomically possible, no motion was detected. The use of the acceleration strategies enabled completing the estimation process for one entire cycle in 5-10 min without degrading the overall performance. The strain map extracted from our motion estimation provided a realistic deformation measure of the vessel wall. Conclusions: The authors' technique has demonstrated that it can provide accurate and robust 4D estimates of cerebrovascular wall motion within a clinically acceptable time, although it has to be applied to a larger patient population prior to possible wide application to routine endovascular procedures. In particular, for the first time, this feasibility study has shown that in vivo cerebrovascular motion can be obtained intraprocedurally from a 3DRA acquisition. Results have also shown the potential of performing strain analysis using this imaging modality, thus making possible for the future modeling of biomechanical properties of the vascular wall.

Automatic low baseline stereo in urban areas

In this work we propose a new automatic methodology for computing accurate digital elevation models (DEMs) in urban environments from low baseline stereo pairs that shall be available in the future from a new kind of earth observation satellite. This setting makes both views of the scene similarly, thus avoiding occlusions and illumination changes, which are the main disadvantages of the commonly accepted large-baseline configuration. There still remain two crucial technological challenges: (i) precisely estimating DEMs with strong discontinuities and (ii) providing a statistically proven result, automatically. The first one is solved here by a piecewise affine representation that is well adapted to man-made landscapes, whereas the application of computational Gestalt theory introduces reliability and automation. In fact this theory allows us to reduce the number of parameters to be adjusted, and tocontrol the number of false detections. This leads to the selection of a suitable segmentation into affine regions (whenever possible) by a novel and completely automatic perceptual grouping method. It also allows us to discriminate e.g. vegetation-dominated regions, where such an affine model does not apply anda more classical correlation technique should be preferred. In addition we propose here an extension of the classical ”quantized” Gestalt theory to continuous measurements, thus combining its reliability with the precision of variational robust estimation and fine interpolation methods that are necessary in the low baseline case. Such an extension is very general and will be useful for many other applications as well.

Determination and Evaluation of Alternative Methods for Managing and Controlling Highway-Related Dust Phase II—Demonstration Project, June 2005

The State of Iowa currently has approximately 69,000 miles of unpaved secondary roads. Due to the low traffic count on these unpaved o nts as ng e two dust ed d roads, paving with asphalt or Portland cement concrete is not economical. Therefore to reduce dust production, the use of dust suppressants has been utilized for decades. This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of several widely used dust suppressants through quantitative field testing on two of Iowa’s most widely used secondary road surface treatments: crushed limestone rock and alluvial sand/gravel. These commercially available dust suppressants included: lignin sulfonate, calcium chloride, and soybean oil soapstock. These suppressants were applied to 1000 ft test sections on four unpaved roads in Story County, Iowa. Tduplicate field conditions, the suppressants were applied as a surface spray once in early June and again in late August or early September. The four unpaved roads included two with crushed limestone rock and two with alluvial sand/gravel surface treatmewell as high and low traffic counts. The effectiveness of the dust suppressants was evaluated by comparing the dust produced on treated and untreated test sections. Dust collection was scheduled for 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks after each application, for a total testiperiod of 16 weeks. Results of a cost analysis between annual dust suppressant application and biennial aggregate replacement indicated that the cost of the dust suppressant, its transportation, and application were relatively high when compared to that of thaggregate types. Therefore, the biennial aggregate replacement is considered more economical than annual dust suppressant application, although the application of annual dust suppressant reduced the cost of road maintenance by 75 %. Results of thecollection indicated that the lignin sulfonate suppressant outperformed calcium chloride and soybean oil soapstock on all four unpavroads, the effect of the suppressants on the alluvial sand/gravel surface treatment was less than that on the crushed limestone rock, the residual effects of all the products seem reasonably well after blading, and the combination of alluvial sand/gravel surface treatment anhigh traffic count caused dust reduction to decrease dramatically.