An infrared desert dust index for the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

A new aerosol index for the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) is presented that provides a means to detect desert dust contamination in infrared SST retrievals. The ATSR Saharan dust index (ASDI) utilises only the thermal infrared channels and may therefore be applied consistently to the entire ATSR data record (1991 to present), for both day time and night time observations. The derivation of the ASDI is based on a principal component (PC) analysis (PCA) of two unique pairs of channel brightness temperature differences (BTDs). In 2-D space (i.e. BTD vs BTD), it is found that the loci of data unaffected by aerosol are confined to a single axis of variability. In contrast, the loci of aerosol-contaminated data fall off-axis, shifting in a direction that is approximately orthogonal to the clear-sky axis. The ASDI is therefore defined to be the second PC, where the first PC accounts for the clear-sky variability. The primary ASDI utilises the ATSR nadir and forward-view observations at 11 and 12 μm (ASDI2). A secondary, three-channel nadir-only ASDI (ASDI3) is also defined for situations where data from the forward view are not available. Empirical and theoretical analyses suggest that ASDI is well correlated with aerosol optical depth (AOD: correlation r is typically > 0.7) and provides an effective tool for detecting desert mineral dust. Overall, ASDI2 is found to be more effective than ASDI3, with the latter being sensitive only to very high dust loading. In addition, use of ASDI3 is confined to night time observations as it relies on data from the 3.7 μm channel, which is sensitive to reflected solar radiation. This highlights the benefits of having data from both a nadir- and a forward-view for this particular approach to aerosol detection.

Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts.

Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

Modeling migratory grazing of zooplankton on toxic and non-toxic phytoplankton

Migratory grazing of zooplankton between non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP) and toxic phytoplankton (TPP) is a realistic phenomena unexplored so far. The present article is a first step in this direction. A mathematical model of NTP–TPP-zooplankton with constant and variable zooplankton migration is proposed and analyzed. The asymptotic dynamics of the model system around the biologically feasible equilibria is explored through local stability analysis. The dynamics of the proposed system is explored and displayed for different combination of migratory parameters and toxin inhibition parameters. Our analysis suggests that the migratory grazing of zooplankton has a significant role in determining the dynamic stability and oscillation of phytoplankton zooplankton systems.

Two-way communication costs and the boundaries of the firm

Casson and Wadeson (International Journal of the Economics of Business, 1998, 5, pp. 5-27) have modelled the dialogue, or conversation, which customers have with their suppliers in order to convey their requirements, while taking production implications into account. They showed that this has important implications for the positioning of the boundaries of the firm. Unfortunately, their model has the restriction that communication is only costly in the direction of customer to supplier. This paper extends their model by introducing two-way communication costs. It shows that the level of communication cost in the direction of supplier to customer is a key additional factor in determining the nature of the dialogue that takes place. It also shows that this has important additional implications for the positioning of the boundaries of the firm. Custom computer software development is used as an example of an application of the theory.

Dayside auroral activity and magnetic flux transfer from the solar wind

Combined observations by meridian-scanning photometers and the EISCAT radar show that the "midday-auroral breakup" phenomenon is associated with major increases in ionospheric flow. A sequence of nine events is observed in the early afternoon MLT sector during a period when the IMF is strongly southward with a large positive By component. Each auroral structure is seen at both 630 and 557.7nm and initially moves westward, accompanied by an increase in potential of 30-60kV across the north-south dimension of the EISCAT field-of-view. After a few minutes the arc (or arc fragment) moves into the polar cap and fades, and the velocities observed by the radar swing from westward toward northward. We conclude that dayside auroral breakup is closely associated with momentum transfer across the magnetopause which occurs in a series of events 5-15 minutes apart. The largest of the observed events has dimensions of about 300km (in the direction of westward motion) by 700km, is bounded on its poleward edge by a 5kR arc and is associated with a potential of at least 80kV.

On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

Subdiffraction fluorescence imaging of biomolecular structure and distributions with quantum dots

We introduce semiconductor quantum dot-based fluorescence imaging with approximately 2-fold increased optical resolution in three dimensions as a method that allows both studying cellular structures and spatial organization of biomolecules in membranes and subcellular organelles. Target biomolecules are labelled with quantum dots via immunocytochemistry. The resolution enhancement is achieved by three-photon absorption of quantum dots and subsequent fluorescence emission from a higher-order excitonic state. Different from conventional multiphoton microscopy, this approach can be realized on any confocal microscope without the need for pulsed excitation light. We demonstrate quantum dot triexciton imaging (QDTI) of the microtubule network of U373 cells, 3D imaging of TNF receptor 2 on the plasma membrane of HeLa cells, and multicolor 3D imaging of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase and actin in COS-7 cells.

Assessing the benefits of domestic hot fill washing appliances

Washing machine and dishwasher appliance use accounts for approximately 10% of electricity demand in EU households. The majority of this demand is due to the operation of electric heating elements inside appliances. This paper investigates the potential benefits that can be realised by adding a hot fill connection to washing appliances, with respect to carbon emissions, demand side management and renewable energy integration. Initial laboratory testing of new hot and cold fill appliances has resulted in modifications to optimise hot fill intake, and a novel numerical model presents a method of characterising appliance electricity use in different configurations. In order to validate model findings and test the use of new hot fill appliances in situ, a pilot study has recorded appliances’ resource consumption at one-minute resolution in fourteen households. The addition of hot fill reduced the total dishwasher and washing machine electricity consumption by 38% and 67% respectively. Depending on how hot water is supplied to appliances it is estimated that hot fill use results in an annual household carbon saving of up to 147 kgCO2. Further to direct electricity reduction, hot fill appliances can offer a method of time shifting demand away from peak periods without inconveniencing occupants’ lifestyles.

Structural constraints on pronoun binding and coreference: evidence from eye movements during reading

A number of recent studies have investigated how syntactic and non-syntactic constraints combine to cue memory retrieval during anaphora resolution. In this paper we investigate how syntactic constraints and gender congruence interact to guide memory retrieval during the resolution of subject pronouns. Subject pronouns are always technically ambiguous, and the application of syntactic constraints on their interpretation depends on properties of the antecedent that is to be retrieved. While pronouns can freely corefer with non-quantified referential antecedents, linking a pronoun to a quantified antecedent is only possible in certain syntactic configurations via variable binding. We report the results from a judgment task and three online reading comprehension experiments investigating pronoun resolution with quantified and non-quantified antecedents. Results from both the judgment task and participants' eye movements during reading indicate that comprehenders freely allow pronouns to corefer with non-quantified antecedents, but that retrieval of quantified antecedents is restricted to specific syntactic environments. We interpret our findings as indicating that syntactic constraints constitute highly weighted cues to memory retrieval during anaphora resolution.

Equation for the microwave backscatter cross section of aggregate snowflakes using the self-similar Rayleigh–Gans approximation

In this paper an equation is derived for the mean backscatter cross section of an ensemble of snowflakes at centimeter and millimeter wavelengths. It uses the Rayleigh–Gans approximation, which has previously been found to be applicable at these wavelengths due to the low density of snow aggregates. Although the internal structure of an individual snowflake is random and unpredictable, the authors find from simulations of the aggregation process that their structure is “self-similar” and can be described by a power law. This enables an analytic expression to be derived for the backscatter cross section of an ensemble of particles as a function of their maximum dimension in the direction of propagation of the radiation, the volume of ice they contain, a variable describing their mean shape, and two variables describing the shape of the power spectrum. The exponent of the power law is found to be −. In the case of 1-cm snowflakes observed by a 3.2-mm-wavelength radar, the backscatter is 40–100 times larger than that of a homogeneous ice–air spheroid with the same mass, size, and aspect ratio.

New insights into the compressibility and high-pressure stability of Ni(CN)2: a combined study of neutron diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, and inelastic neutron scattering

Nickel cyanide is a layered material showing markedly anisotropic behaviour. High-pressure neutron diffraction measurements show that at pressures up to 20.1 kbar, compressibility is much higher in the direction perpendicular to the layers, c, than in the plane of the strongly chemically bonded metal-cyanide sheets. Detailed examination of the behaviour of the tetragonal lattice parameters, a and c, as a function of pressure reveal regions in which large changes in slope occur, for example, in c(P) at 1 kbar. The experimental pressure dependence of the volume data is fitted to a bulk modulus, B0, of 1050 (20) kbar over the pressure range 0–1 kbar, and to 124 (2) kbar over the range 1–20.1 kbar. Raman spectroscopy measurements yield additional information on how the structure and bonding in the Ni(CN)2 layers change with pressure and show that a phase change occurs at about 1 kbar. The new high-pressure phase, (Phase PII), has ordered cyanide groups with sheets of D4h symmetry containing Ni(CN)4 and Ni(NC)4 groups. The Raman spectrum of phase PII closely resembles that of the related layered compound, Cu1/2Ni1/2(CN)2, which has previously been shown to contain ordered C≡N groups. The phase change, PI to PII, is also observed in inelastic neutron scattering studies which show significant changes occurring in the phonon spectra as the pressure is raised from 0.3 to 1.5 kbar. These changes reflect the large reduction in the interlayer spacing which occurs as Phase PI transforms to Phase PII and the consequent increase in difficulty for out-of-plane atomic motions. Unlike other cyanide materials e.g. Zn(CN)2 and Ag3Co(CN)6, which show an amorphization and/or a decomposition at much lower pressures (~100 kbar), Ni(CN)2 can be recovered after pressurising to 200 kbar, albeit in a more ordered form.

LOFZY 2005 - Field experiment on Cyclones over the Norwegian Sea: meteorological measurements of the research aircraft Falcon, 23 autonomous water buoys and radiosoundings at the research vessel Celtic Explorer

The field campaign LOFZY 2005 (LOFoten ZYklonen, engl.: Cyclones) was carried out in the frame of Collaborative Research Centre 512, which deals with low-pressure systems (cyclones) and the climate system of the North Atlantic. Cyclones are of special interest due to their influence on the interaction between atmosphere and ocean. Cyclone activity in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean is notably high and is of particular importance for the entire Atlantic Ocean. An area of maximum precipitation exists in front of the Norwegian Lofoten islands. One aim of the LOFZY field campaign was to clarify the role cyclones play in the interaction of ocean and atmosphere. In order to obtain a comprehensive dataset of cyclone activity and ocean-atmosphere interaction a field experiment was carried out in the Lofoten region during March and April 2005. Employed platforms were the Irish research vessel RV Celtic Explorer which conducted a meteorological (radiosondes, standard parameters, observations) and an oceanographic (CTD) program. The German research aircraft Falcon accomplished eight flight missions (between 4-21 March) to observe synoptic conditions with high spatial and temporal resolution. In addition 23 autonomous marine buoys were deployed in advance of the campaign in the observed area to measure drift, air-temperature and -pressure and water-temperature. In addition to the published datasets several other measurements were performed during the experiment. Corresonding datasets will be published in the near future and are available on request. Details about all used platforms and sensors and all performed measurements are listed in the fieldreport. The following datasets are available on request: ground data at RV Celtic Explorer

Accounting quality, information risk and implied volatility around earnings announcements

We examine the impact of accounting quality, used as a proxy for information risk, on the behavior of equity implied volatility around quarterly earnings announcements. Using US data during 1996–2010, we observe that lower (higher) accounting quality significantly relates to higher (lower) levels of implied volatility (IV) around announcements. Worse accounting quality is further associated with a significant increase in IV before announcements, and is found to relate to a larger resolution in IV after the announcement has taken place. We interpret our findings as indicative of information risk having a significant impact on implied volatility behavior around earnings announcements.

THE COMPTON-THICK SEYFERT 2 NUCLEUS OF NGC 3281: TORUS CONSTRAINTS FROM THE 9.7 mu m SILICATE ABSORPTION

We present mid-infrared (mid-IR) spectra of the Compton-thick Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 3281, obtained with the Thermal-Region Camera Spectrograph at the Gemini-South telescope. The spectra present a very deep silicate absorption at 9.7 mu m, and [S IV] 10.5 mu m and [Ne II] 12.7 mu m ionic lines, but no evidence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emission. We find that the nuclear optical extinction is in the range 24 mag <= A(V) <= 83 mag. A temperature T = 300 K was found for the blackbody dust continuum component of the unresolved 65 pc nucleus and the region at 130 pc SE, while the region at 130 pc NW reveals a colder temperature (200 K). We describe the nuclear spectrum of NGC 3281 using a clumpy torus model that suggests that the nucleus of this galaxy hosts a dusty toroidal structure. According to this model, the ratio between the inner and outer radius of the torus in NGC 3281 is R(0)/R(d) = 20, with 14 clouds in the equatorial radius with optical depth of tau(V) = 40 mag. We would be looking in the direction of the torus equatorial radius (i = 60 degrees), which has outer radius of R(0) similar to 11 pc. The column density is N(H) approximate to 1.2 x 10(24) cm(-2) and the iron K alpha equivalent width (approximate to 0.5-1.2 keV) is used to check the torus geometry. Our findings indicate that the X-ray absorbing column density, which classifies NGC 3281 as a Compton-thick source, may also be responsible for the absorption at 9.7 mu m providing strong evidence that the silicate dust responsible for this absorption can be located in the active galactic nucleus torus.

Self-assembling of phenothiazine compounds investigated by small-angle X-ray scattering and electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) have been carried out to investigate the structure of the self-aggregates of two phenothiazine drugs, chlorpromazine (CPZ) and trifluoperazine (TFP), in aqueous solution. In the SAXS studies, drug solutions of 20 and 60 mM, at pH 4.0 and 7.0, were investigated and the best data fittings were achieved assuming several different particle form factors with a homogeneous electron density distribution in respect to the water environment. Because of the limitation of scattering intensity in the q range above 0.15 angstrom(-1), precise determination of the aggregate shape was not possible and all of the tested models for ellipsoids, cylinders, or parallelepipeds fitted the experimental data equally well. The SAXS data allows inferring, however, that CPZ molecules might self-assemble in a basis set of an orthorhombic cell, remaining as nanocrystallites in solution. Such nanocrystals are composed of a small number of unit cells (up to 10, in c-direction), with CPZ aggregation numbers of 60-80. EPR spectra of 5- and 16-doxyl stearic acids bound to the aggregates were analyzed through simulation, and the dynamic and magnetic parameters were obtained. The phenothiazine concentration in EPR experiments was in the range of 5-60 mM. Critical aggregation concentration of TFP is lower than that for CPZ, consistent with a higher hydrophobicity of TFP. At acidic pH 4.0 a significant residual motion of the nitroxide relative to the aggregate is observed, and the EPR spectra and corresponding parameters are similar to those reported for aqueous surfactant micelles. However, at pH 6.5 a significant motional restriction is observed, and the nitroxide rotational correlation times correlate very well with those estimated for the whole aggregated particle from SAXS data. This implies that the aggregate is densely packed at this pH and that the nitroxide is tightly bound to it producing a strongly immobilized EPR spectrum. Besides that, at pH 6.5 the differences in motional restriction observed between 5- and 16-DSA are small, which is different from that observed for aqueous surfactant micelles.