Overfitting Bayesian mixture models with an unknown number of components

This paper proposes solutions to three issues pertaining to the estimation of finite mixture models with an unknown number of components: the non-identifiability induced by overfitting the number of components, the mixing limitations of standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques, and the related label switching problem. An overfitting approach is used to estimate the number of components in a finite mixture model via a Zmix algorithm. Zmix provides a bridge between multidimensional samplers and test based estimation methods, whereby priors are chosen to encourage extra groups to have weights approaching zero. MCMC sampling is made possible by the implementation of prior parallel tempering, an extension of parallel tempering. Zmix can accurately estimate the number of components, posterior parameter estimates and allocation probabilities given a sufficiently large sample size. The results will reflect uncertainty in the final model and will report the range of possible candidate models and their respective estimated probabilities from a single run. Label switching is resolved with a computationally light-weight method, Zswitch, developed for overfitted mixtures by exploiting the intuitiveness of allocation-based relabelling algorithms and the precision of label-invariant loss functions. Four simulation studies are included to illustrate Zmix and Zswitch, as well as three case studies from the literature. All methods are available as part of the R package Zmix, which can currently be applied to univariate Gaussian mixture models.

Blast response and failure analysis of a segmented buried tunnel

Underground tunnels are vulnerable to terrorist attacks which can cause collapse of the tunnel structures or at least extensive damage, requiring lengthy repairs. This paper treats the blast impact on a reinforced concrete segmental tunnel buried in soil under a number of parametric conditions; soil properties, soil cover, distance of explosive from the tunnel centreline and explosive weight and analyses the possible failure patterns. A fully coupled Fluid Structure Interaction (FSI) technique incorporating the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) method is used in this study. Results indicate that the tunnel in saturated soil is more vulnerable to severe damage than that buried in either partially saturated soil or dry soil. The tunnel is also more vulnerable to surface explosions which occur directly above the centre of the tunnel than those that occur at any equivalent distances in the ground away from the tunnel centre. The research findings provide useful information on modeling, analysis, overall tunnel response and failure patterns of segmented tunnels subjected to blast loads. This information will guide future development and application of research in this field.

Approaching Sacred Pregnancy : The Cult of the Visitation and Narrative Altarpieces in Late Fifteenth-Century Florence

The study focuses on the Visitation as a narrative subject of altarpieces in late fifteenth-century Florence. Although the Visitation was a well-known story in both verbal and visual representations since the early medieval period, it became a popular subject of altarpieces only towards the end of the fifteenth century. In this study, the first part provides an overview of the complex religious and historical background to an emerging cult of the Visitation. Devotional practices focusing on the Visitation belong in a context of late medieval Marian devotion and in 1389 a new feast of the Visitation was introduced into the liturgical calendar of the Catholic Church. Because of the ongoing schism within the Catholic Church, the feast was not unanimously accepted across Western Europe until the later part of the fifteenth century. Contrary to a widely disseminated view, the feast of the Visitation cannot be associated with Franciscan spirituality, but was rather a clearly defined Dominican project that primarily emphasised the importance of peace and unity within the Christian Church. Simultaneously with the gradual acceptance of the new feast, visual representations of the Visitation began to appear at the centre of altarpieces. The Visitation exemplifies an increasing preference for narrative subjects within the genre of the altarpiece. The second part of the study presents an analysis of the concept of the narrative altarpiece and highlights the complexities involved in combining a narrative content with the traditional devotional function of the altarpiece. In detailed case studies some prominent art works produced in Florence between 1490 and 1503 are discussed within a framework of contextual analysis, narrative theory and iconography. Altarpieces by Domenico Ghirlandaio, Piero di Cosimo and Mariotto Albertinelli represent visual manifestations of a cult of the Visitation with roots in late medieval devotional practices. At the same time, the altarpieces highlight the multiple functions of altarpieces in a culture where art works responded to a variety of social and religious needs. Building on earlier studies, each case study presents new insights and evidence not considered in previous art historical research.

Approximate closed-form solutions of realistic true proportional navigation guidance using the Adomian decomposition method

Approximate closed-form solutions of the non-linear relative equations of motion of an interceptor pursuing a target under the realistic true proportional navigation (RTPN) guidance law are derived using the Adomian decomposition method in this article. In the literature, no study has been reported on derivation of explicit time-series solutions in closed form of the nonlinear dynamic engagement equations under the RTPN guidance. The Adomian method provides an analytical approximation, requiring no linearization or direct integration of the non-linear terms. The complete derivation of the Adomian polynomials for the analysis of the dynamics of engagement under RTPN guidance is presented for deterministic ideal case, and non-ideal dynamics in the loop that comprises autopilot and actuator dynamics and target manoeuvre, as well as, for a stochastic case. Numerical results illustrate the applicability of the method.

Repeatable Condition-Invariant Visual Odometry for Sequence-Based Place Recognition

This paper describes a vision-only system for place recognition in environments that are tra- versed at different times of day, when chang- ing conditions drastically affect visual appear- ance, and at different speeds, where places aren’t visited at a consistent linear rate. The ma- jor contribution is the removal of wheel-based odometry from the previously presented algo- rithm (SMART), allowing the technique to op- erate on any camera-based device; in our case a mobile phone. While we show that the di- rect application of visual odometry to our night- time datasets does not achieve a level of perfor- mance typically needed, the VO requirements of SMART are orthogonal to typical usage: firstly only the magnitude of the velocity is required, and secondly the calculated velocity signal only needs to be repeatable in any one part of the environment over day and night cycles, but not necessarily globally consistent. Our results show that the smoothing effect of motion constraints is highly beneficial for achieving a locally consis- tent, lighting-independent velocity estimate. We also show that the advantage of our patch-based technique used previously for frame recogni- tion, surprisingly, does not transfer to VO, where SIFT demonstrates equally good performance. Nevertheless, we present the SMART system us- ing only vision, which performs sequence-base place recognition in extreme low-light condi- tions where standard 6-DOF VO fails and that improves place recognition performance over odometry-less benchmarks, approaching that of wheel odometry.

On the order of the fractional Laplacian in determining the spatio-temporal evolution of a space-fractional model of cardiac electrophysiology

Space-fractional operators have been used with success in a variety of practical applications to describe transport processes in media characterised by spatial connectivity properties and high structural heterogeneity altering the classical laws of diffusion. This study provides a systematic investigation of the spatio-temporal effects of a space-fractional model in cardiac electrophysiology. We consider a simplified model of electrical pulse propagation through cardiac tissue, namely the monodomain formulation of the Beeler-Reuter cell model on insulated tissue fibres, and obtain a space-fractional modification of the model by using the spectral definition of the one-dimensional continuous fractional Laplacian. The spectral decomposition of the fractional operator allows us to develop an efficient numerical method for the space-fractional problem. Particular attention is paid to the role played by the fractional operator in determining the solution behaviour and to the identification of crucial differences between the non-fractional and the fractional cases. We find a positive linear dependence of the depolarization peak height and a power law decay of notch and dome peak amplitudes for decreasing orders of the fractional operator. Furthermore, we establish a quadratic relationship in conduction velocity, and quantify the increasingly wider action potential foot and more pronounced dispersion of action potential duration, as the fractional order is decreased. A discussion of the physiological interpretation of the presented findings is made.

Non-linear resonance in strings under narrow band random excitation, part I: Planar response and stability

Non-linear planar response of a string to planar narrow band random excitation is investigated in this paper. A response equation for the mean square deflection σ2 is obtained under a single mode approximation by using the equivalent linearization technique. It is shown that the response is triple valued, as in the case of harmonic excitation, if the centre frequency of excitation Ω lies in a certain specified range. The triple valued response occurs only if the excitation bandwidth β is smaller than a critical value βcrit which is a monotonically increasing function of the intensity of excitation. An approximate method of investigating the almost sure asymptotic stability of the solution is presented and regions of instability in the Ω-σ2 plane have been charted. It is shown that planar response can become unstable either due to an unbounded growth of the in-plane component of motion or due to a spontaneous appearance of an out-of-plane component.

Expert Identity in Development of Core-Task-Oriented Working Practices for Mastering Demanding Situations

The point of departure in this dissertation was the practical safety problem of unanticipated, unfamiliar events and unexpected changes in the environment, the demanding situations which the operators should take care of in the complex socio-technical systems. The aim of this thesis was to increase the understanding of demanding situations and of the resources for coping with these situations by presenting a new construct, a conceptual model called Expert Identity (ExId) as a way to open up new solutions to the problem of demanding situations and by testing the model in empirical studies on operator work. The premises of the Core-Task Analysis (CTA) framework were adopted as a starting point: core-task oriented working practices promote the system efficiency (incl. safety, productivity and well-being targets) and that should be supported. The negative effects of stress were summarised and the possible countermeasures related to the operators' personal resources such as experience, expertise, sense of control, conceptions of work and self etc. were considered. ExId was proposed as a way to bring emotional-energetic depth into the work analysis and to supplement CTA-based practical methods to discover development challenges and to contribute to the development of complex socio-technical systems. The potential of ExId to promote understanding of operator work was demonstrated in the context of the six empirical studies on operator work. Each of these studies had its own practical objectives within the corresponding quite broad focuses of the studies. The concluding research questions were: 1) Are the assumptions made in ExId on the basis of the different theories and previous studies supported by the empirical findings? 2) Does the ExId construct promote understanding of the operator work in empirical studies? 3) What are the strengths and weaknesses of the ExId construct? The layers and the assumptions of the development of expert identity appeared to gain evidence. The new conceptual model worked as a part of an analysis of different kinds of data, as a part of different methods used for different purposes, in different work contexts. The results showed that the operators had problems in taking care of the core task resulting from the discrepancy between the demands and resources (either personal or external). The changes of work, the difficulties in reaching the real content of work in the organisation and the limits of the practical means of support had complicated the problem and limited the possibilities of the development actions within the case organisations. Personal resources seemed to be sensitive to the changes, adaptation is taking place, but not deeply or quickly enough. Furthermore, the results showed several characteristics of the studied contexts that complicated the operators' possibilities to grow into or with the demands and to develop practices, expertise and expert identity matching the core task. They were: discontinuation of the work demands, discrepancy between conceptions of work held in the other parts of organisation, visions and the reality faced by the operators, emphasis on the individual efforts and situational solutions. The potential of ExId to open up new paths to solving the problem of the demanding situations and its ability to enable studies on practices in the field was considered in the discussion. The results were interpreted as promising enough to encourage the conduction of further studies on ExId. This dissertation proposes especially contribution to supporting the workers in recognising the changing demands and their possibilities for growing with them when aiming to support human performance in complex socio-technical systems, both in designing the systems and solving the existing problems.

Evaluation of Australian Performing Arts Market 2014-2018 REPORT TWO APAM inter-year report 2015 DECEMBER

The report follows up on data and trends tabled in August 2015 that collected data from two key sources – six identified case study productions that have been tracked for eighteen months, and an online survey delivered to all APAM 2014 delegates. The comparative report has been constructed through an analysis of data reported from the August 2015 and the most recent online survey to all 2104 PM delegates conducted in late November 2015. The report highlights six key trends emerging from the data: The majority of survey respondents will return to APAM 2016; The central reason for attending is the networking opportunities the Market affords; Respondents are confident that a range of new relationships forged at the Market will afford long-term interest and buying opportunities and that as a result of the 2014 event, real touring outcomes were realised for some respondents; Respondents would like to see greater attention to a greater number of networking activities within the program to enable touring outcomes; The multi-venue model is still of concern, and is a recurrent issue from earlier surveys; The level of expense incurred by producers to present work at APAM. Throughout the report, extracted data from the online survey responses will be tabled to develop a narrative in response to the key research aims outlined in the Brisbane Powerhouse Tender document (2011). A full version of the collated responses to the survey questions can be found in the appendices of the report.

Distributed Robotic Vision as a service

The vision sense of standalone robots is limited by line of sight and onboard camera capabilities, but processing video from remote cameras puts a high computational burden on robots. This paper describes the Distributed Robotic Vision Service, DRVS, which implements an on-demand distributed visual object detection service. Robots specify visual information requirements in terms of regions of interest and object detection algorithms. DRVS dynamically distributes the object detection computation to remote vision systems with processing capabilities, and the robots receive high-level object detection information. DRVS relieves robots of managing sensor discovery and reduces data transmission compared to image sharing models of distributed vision. Navigating a sensorless robot from remote vision systems is demonstrated in simulation as a proof of concept.

Genetic erosion and changes in distribution of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. (Moench)) landraces in north-eastern Ethiopia

Ethiopia is believed to be the centre of origin and domestication for sorghum, where sorghum remains one of the main staple crops. Loss of biodiversity is occurring at an alarming rate in Ethiopia and crops, including sorghum, have long been recognized as vulnerable to genetic erosion. A major collection of sorghum germplasm was made in 1973 by Gebrekidan and Ejeta from north-eastern Ethiopia. A new collection of landraces was made in 2003, and these were field evaluated at Sirinka in 2004 along with representative samples from the 1973 collection. Farmer surveys and soil and climate surveys were also performed. Preliminary analysis demonstrated that some important landraces have disappeared either locally or regionally in the past 30 years and many other landraces have become marginalized. Landraces which are less preferred in terms of agronomic value and end use, and introductions, have become increasingly important. Late maturing landraces were found to be particularly vulnerable, with a number disappearing altogether. Farmers have become more risk averse, and factors such as declining soil fertility, more frequent drought and unreliable rainfall, and increased pest infestation have contributed to a change in farmer landrace selection. Data are presented on the variability and unique characters of some of the Ethiopian landraces, and implications for conservation are discussed.

A novel approach to 6-DOF adaptive trajectory tracking control of an AUV in the presence of parameter uncertainties

In this paper, the trajectory tracking control of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUVs) in six-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOFs) is addressed. It is assumed that the system parameters are unknown and the vehicle is underactuated. An adaptive controller is proposed, based on Lyapunov׳s direct method and the back-stepping technique, which interestingly guarantees robustness against parameter uncertainties. The desired trajectory can be any sufficiently smooth bounded curve parameterized by time even if consist of straight line. In contrast with the majority of research in this field, the likelihood of actuators׳ saturation is considered and another adaptive controller is designed to overcome this problem, in which control signals are bounded using saturation functions. The nonlinear adaptive control scheme yields asymptotic convergence of the vehicle to the reference trajectory, in the presence of parametric uncertainties. The stability of the presented control laws is proved in the sense of Lyapunov theory and Barbalat׳s lemma. Efficiency of presented controller using saturation functions is verified through comparing numerical simulations of both controllers.

The structures of the ammonium halides

A comparison with the alkali halides suggests that all the ammonium halides should occur in the NaCl centre-of-mass structure. Experimentally, at room temperature and atmospheric pressure, only NH,1 crystallizes in this structure, while NH,F is found in the ZnO structure, and NH&I and NH,Br occur in the CsCl structure. We show that a distributed charge on the NH,+ ion can explain these structures. Taking charges of + 0.2e on each of the five atoms in NH,+, as suggested by other studies, we have recomputed the Madelung energy in the cases of interest. A full ionic theory including electrostatic, van der Waals and repulsive interactions then explains the centre-of-mass structures of all the four ammonium halides. The thermal and pressure transitions are also explained reasonably well. The calculated phase diagram of NH,F compares well with experiment. Barring the poorly understood NH,F(II) phase, which is beyond the scope of this work, the other features are in qualitative agreement. In particular, the theory correctly predicts a pressure transition at room temperature from the ZnO structure directly to the CsCl structure without an intermediate NaCl phase. A feature of our approach is that we do not need to invoke hydrogen bonding in NH,F.

Migration of feral pigs (Sus scrofa) in rainforests of north Queensland: fact or fiction?

The Wet Tropics bioregion of north Queensland has been identified as an area of global significance. The world-heritage-listed rainforests have been invaded by feral pigs (Sus scrofa) that are perceived to cause substantial environmental damage. A community perception exists of an annual altitudinal migration of the feral-pig population. The present study describes the movements of 29 feral pigs in relation to altitudinal migration (highland, transitional and lowland areas). Feral pigs were sedentary and stayed within their home range throughout a 4-year study period. No altitudinal migration was detected; pigs moved no more than a mean distance of 1.0 km from the centre of their calculated home ranges. There was no significant difference between the mean (+/- 95% confidence interval) aggregate home ranges for males (8.7 +/- 4.3 km², n = 15) and females (7.2 +/- 1.8 km², n = 14). No difference in home range was detected among the three altitudinal areas: 7.2 +/- 2.4 km² for highland, 6.2 +/- 3.9 km² for transitional and 9.9 +/- 5.3 km² for lowland areas. The aggregate mean home range for all pigs in the present study was 8.0 +/- 2.4 km². The study also assessed the influence seasons had on the home range of eight feral pigs on the rainforest boundary; home ranges did not significantly vary in size between the tropical wet and dry seasons, although the mean home range in the dry season (7.7 +/- 6.9 km²) was more than twice the home range in the wet season (2.9 +/- 0.8 km²). Heavier pigs tended to have larger home ranges. The results of the present study suggest that feral pigs are sedentary throughout the year so broad-scale control techniques need to be applied over sufficient areas to encompass individual home ranges. Control strategies need a coordinated approach if a long-term reduction in the pig population is to be achieved.

The development of a component to improve the loading safety of bone-anchored prostheses

Use of socket prostheses Currently, for individuals with limb loss, the conventional method of attaching a prosthetic limb relies on a socket that fits over the residual limb. However, there are a number of issues concerning the use of a socket (e.g., blisters, irritation, and discomfort) that result in dissatisfaction with socket prostheses, and these lead ultimately a significant decrease in quality of life. Bone-anchored prosthesis Alternatively, the concept of attaching artificial limbs directly to the skeletal system has been developed (bone anchored prostheses), as it alleviates many of the issues surrounding the conventional socket interface.Bone anchored prostheses rely on two critical components: the implant, and the percutaneous abutment or adapter, which forms the connection for the external prosthetic system (Figure 1). To date, an implant that screws into the long bone of the residual limb has been the most common intervention. However, more recently, press-fit implants have been introduced and their use is increasing. Several other devices are currently at various stages of development, particularly in Europe and the United States. Benefits of bone-anchored prostheses Several key studies have demonstrated that bone-anchored prostheses have major clinical benefits when compared to socket prostheses (e.g., quality of life, prosthetic use, body image, hip range of motion, sitting comfort, ease of donning and doffing, osseoperception (proprioception), walking ability) and acceptable safety, in terms of implant stability and infection. Additionally, this method of attachment allows amputees to participate in a wide range of daily activities for a substantially longer duration. Overall, the system has demonstrated a significant enhancement to quality of life. Challenges of direct skeletal attachment However, due to the direct skeletal attachment, serious injury and damage can occur through excessive loading events such as during a fall (e.g., component damage, peri-prosthetic fracture, hip dislocation, and femoral head fracture). These incidents are costly (e.g., replacement of components) and could require further surgical interventions. Currently, these risks are limiting the acceptance of bone-anchored technology and the substantial improvement to quality of life that this treatment offers. An in-depth investigation into these risks highlighted a clear need to re-design and improve the componentry in the system (Figure 2), to improve the overall safety during excessive loading events. Aim and purposes The ultimate aim of this doctoral research is to improve the loading safety of bone-anchored prostheses, to reduce the incidence of injury and damage through the design of load restricting components, enabling individuals fitted with the system to partake in everyday activities, with increased security and self-assurance. The safety component will be designed to release or ‘fail’ external to the limb, in a way that protects the internal bone-implant interface, thus removing the need for restorative surgery and potential damage to the bone. This requires detailed knowledge of the loads typically experienced by the limb and an understanding of potential overload situations that might occur. Hence, a comprehensive review of the loading literature surrounding bone anchored prostheses will be conducted as part of this project, with the potential for additional experimental studies of the loads during normal activities to fill in gaps in the literature. This information will be pivotal in determining the specifications for the properties of the safety component, and the bone-implant system. The project will follow the Stanford Biodesign process for the development of the safety component.