Driving and dementia: a clinical decision pathway

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to develop a pathway to bring together current UK legislation, good clinical practice and appropriate management strategies that could be applied across a range of healthcare settings. METHODS The pathway was constructed by a multidisciplinary clinical team based in a busy Memory Assessment Service. A process of successive iteration was used to develop the pathway, with input and refinement provided via survey and small group meetings with individuals from a wide range of regional clinical networks and diverse clinical backgrounds as well as discussion with mobility centres and Forum of Mobility Centres, UK. RESULTS We present a succinct clinical pathway for patients with dementia, which provides a decision-making framework for how health professionals across a range of disciplines deal with patients with dementia who drive. CONCLUSIONS By integrating the latest guidance from diverse roles within older people's health services and key experts in the field, the resulting pathway reflects up-to-date policy and encompasses differing perspectives and good practice. It is potentially a generalisable pathway that can be easily adaptable for use internationally, by replacing UK legislation for local regulations. A limitation of this pathway is that it does not address the concern of mild cognitive impairment and how this condition relates to driving safety. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A new model construction by making a detour via intuitionistic theories I: Operational set theory without choice is Π1-equivalent to KP

We introduce a version of operational set theory, OST−, without a choice operation, which has a machinery for Δ0Δ0 separation based on truth functions and the separation operator, and a new kind of applicative set theory, so-called weak explicit set theory WEST, based on Gödel operations. We show that both the theories and Kripke–Platek set theory KPKP with infinity are pairwise Π1Π1 equivalent. We also show analogous assertions for subtheories with ∈-induction restricted in various ways and for supertheories extended by powerset, beta, limit and Mahlo operations. Whereas the upper bound is given by a refinement of inductive definition in KPKP, the lower bound is by a combination, in a specific way, of realisability, (intuitionistic) forcing and negative interpretations. Thus, despite interpretability between classical theories, we make “a detour via intuitionistic theories”. The combined interpretation, seen as a model construction in the sense of Visser's miniature model theory, is a new way of construction for classical theories and could be said the third kind of model construction ever used which is non-trivial on the logical connective level, after generic extension à la Cohen and Krivine's classical realisability model.

Current trends in cannulation and neuroprotection during surgery of the aortic arch in Europe†‡

OBJECTIVES To conduct a survey across European cardiac centres to evaluate the methods used for cerebral protection during aortic surgery involving the aortic arch. METHODS All European centres were contacted and surgeons were requested to fill out a short, comprehensive questionnaire on an internet-based platform. One-third of more than 400 contacted centres completed the survey correctly. RESULTS The most preferred site for arterial cannulation is the subclavian-axillary, both in acute and chronic presentation. The femoral artery is still frequently used in the acute condition, while the ascending aorta is a frequent second choice in the case of chronic presentation. Bilateral antegrade brain perfusion is chosen by the majority of centres (2/3 of cases), while retrograde perfusion or circulatory arrest is very seldom used and almost exclusively in acute clinical presentation. The same pumping system of the cardio pulmonary bypass is most of the time used for selective cerebral perfusion, and the perfusate temperature is usually maintained between 22 and 26°C. One-third of the centres use lower temperatures. Perfusate flow and pressure are fairly consistent among centres in the range of 10-15 ml/kg and 60 mmHg, respectively. In 60% of cases, barbiturates are added for cerebral protection, while visceral perfusion still receives little attention. Regarding cerebral monitoring, there is a general tendency to use near-infrared spectroscopy associated with bilateral radial pressure measurement. CONCLUSIONS These data represent a snapshot of the strategies used for cerebral protection during major aortic surgery in current practice, and may serve as a reference for standardization and refinement of different approaches.

The Little Ice Age in Scientific Perspective: Cold Spells and Caveats

Contrary to the position taken by Kelly and Ó Gráda, a rich body of regional- to large-scale temperature reconstructions that span from the last millennium to almost the entire Holocene confirms the existence of several temperature depressions that occurred at different intensities and spatial ranges between c. 1350 and 1900, thus supporting the conception of a Little Ice Age. Nonetheless, the genuine uncertainties that continue to surround paleoclimatic study suggest that methodologies and findings are subject to further refinement.

Chiral Templating Activity of Tris(bipyridine)ruthenium(II) Cation in the Design of Three-Dimensional (3D) Optically Active Oxalate-Bridged {[Ru(bpy) 3 ][Cu 2 x Ni 2(1 - x ) (C 2 O 4 ) 3 ]} n (0 ≤ x ≤ 1; bpy = 2,2‘-bipyridine): Structural, Optical, and Magnetic Studies

Three-dimensional oxalate-based {[Ru(bpy)3][Cu2xNi2(1-x)(ox)3]}n (0≤ x ≤ 1, ox = C2O42-, bpy = 2,2‘bipyridine) were synthesized. The structure was determined for x = 1 by X-ray diffraction on single crystal. The compound crystallizes in the cubic space group P4132. It shows a three-dimensional 10-gon 3-connected (10,3) anionic network where copper(II) has an unusual tris(bischelated) environment. X-ray powder diffraction patterns and their Rietveld refinement show that all the compounds along the series are isostructural and single-phased. According to X-ray absorption spectroscopy, copper(II) and nickel(II) have an octahedral environment, respectively elongated and trigonally distorted. As shown by natural circular dichroism, the optically active forms of {[Ru(bpy)3][CuxNi2(1-x)(ox)3]}n are obtained starting from resolved Δ- or Λ-[Ru(bpy)3]2+. The Curie−Weiss temperatures range between −55 (x = 1) and −150 K (x = 0). The antiferromagnetic exchange interaction thus decreases when the copper contents increases in agreement with the crystallographic structure of the compounds and the electronic structure of the metal ions. At low temperature, the compounds exhibit complex long-range ordered magnetic behavior.

Institutions for sustainable governance of forests: Equity, robustness and cross-level interactions in Mawlyngbna, Meghalaya, India

This study adopts Ostrom’s Social-Ecological Systems (SES) framework in empirical fieldwork to explain how local forestry institutions affect forest ecosystems and social equity in the community of Mawlyngbna in North-East India. Data was collected through 26 semi-structured interviews, participatory timeline development, policy documents, direct observation, periodicals, transect walks, and a concurrent forest-ecological study in the village. Results show that Mawlyngbna's forests provide important sources of livelihood benefits for the villagers. However, ecological disturbance and diversity varies among the different forest ownership types and forest-based livelihood benefits are inequitably distributed. Based on a bounded rationality approach, our analysis proposes a set of causal mechanisms that trace these observed social-ecological outcomes to the attributes of the resource system, resource units, actors and governance system. We analyse opportunities and constraints of interactions between the village, regional, and state levels. We discuss how Ostrom’s design principles for community-based resource governance inform the explanation of robustness but have a blind spot in explaining social equity. We report experiences made using the SES framework in empirical fieldwork. We conclude that mapping cross-level interactions in the SES framework needs conceptual refinement and that explaining social equity of forest governance needs theoretical advances.

The benefits of one-dimensional detectors for high-pressure powder X-ray diffraction

High-pressure powder X-ray diffraction is a fundamental technique for investigating structural responses to externally applied force. Synchrotron sources and two-dimensional detectors are required. In contrast to this conventional setup, high-resolution beamlines equipped with one-dimensional detectors could offer much better resolved peaks but cannot deliver accurate structure factors because they only sample a small portion of the Debye rings, which are usually inhomogeneous and spotty because of the small amount of sample. In this study, a simple method to overcome this problem is presented and successfully applied to solving the structure of an L-serine polymorph from powder data. A comparison of the obtained high-resolution high-pressure data with conventional data shows that this technique, providing up to ten times better angular resolution, can be of advantage for indexing, for lattice parameter refinement, and even for structure refinement and solution in special cases.

Comparison of 3D kinetic and hydrodynamic models to ROSINA-COPS measurements of the neutral coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) is a Jupiter-family comet and the object of investigation of the European Space Agency mission Rosetta. This report presents the first full 3D simulation results of 67P’s neutral gas coma. In this study we include results from a direct simulation Monte Carlo method, a hydrodynamic code, and a purely geometric calculation which computes the total illuminated surface area on the nucleus. All models include the triangulated 3D shape model of 67P as well as realistic illumination and shadowing conditions. The basic concept is the assumption that these illumination conditions on the nucleus are the main driver for the gas activity of the comet. As a consequence, the total production rate of 67P varies as a function of solar insolation. The best agreement between the model and the data is achieved when gas fluxes on the night side are in the range of 7% to 10% of the maximum flux, accounting for contributions from the most volatile components. To validate the output of our numerical simulations we compare the results of all three models to in situ gas number density measurements from the ROSINA COPS instrument. We are able to reproduce the overall features of these local neutral number density measurements of ROSINA COPS for the time period between early August 2014 and January 1 2015 with all three models. Some details in the measurements are not reproduced and warrant further investigation and refinement of the models. However, the overall assumption that illumination conditions on the nucleus are at least an important driver of the gas activity is validated by the models. According to our simulation results we find the total production rate of 67P to be constant between August and November 2014 with a value of about 1 × 10²⁶ molecules s⁻¹.

TIMS measurements of full range of natural Ca isotopes with internally consistent fractionation correction

This study presents static measurements of the Ca isotopic composition of standard reference materials SRM 915 a/b on a Triton Plus™ thermal ionization mass spectrometer with a specially developed Faraday cup array allowing simultaneous measurement of 40Ca and 48Ca. The total amount of Ca in all analyses was kept < 1 µg. With this setup the measurement uncertainties were 0.06 ‰ for 40Ca/44Ca and 0.12 ‰ for 48Ca/40Ca. Measuring all isotopes simultaneously better allows to test the internal consistency of different Ca isotope abundances reported in the literature. The exponential law was observed to correct incompletely instrumental mass fractionation. An improved fractionation correction based on the exponential law is proposed. It changes the 40Ca/44Ca ratio of SRM 915a (corrected relative to 42Ca/44Ca = 0.31221; 48Ca/44Ca = 0.08871) from 47.1635 ± 0.0028 to 47.1649 ± 0.0047. The measurements of SRM 915b were performed with different analytical conditions (runs were prolonged till complete filament load depletion). Even if the 40Ca/44Ca ratio of SRM 915b, when corrected with the simple exponential law, appears different (47.1532 ± 0.0038) from that of SRM 915a, it becomes coincident (47.1613 ± 0.0028) when corrected with a second-order refinement. This supports the use of the improved exponential law to obtain internally consistent Ca isotope ratio for natural samples.

Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

Evaluation of the success of medical management for presumptive cervical intervertebral disk herniation in dogs.

OBJECTIVE To determine the success of medical management of presumptive cervical disk herniation in dogs and variables associated with treatment outcome. DESIGN Retrospective case series. ANIMALS Dogs (n=88) with presumptive cervical disk herniation. METHODS Dogs with presumptive cervical and thoracolumbar disk herniation were identified from medical records at 2 clinics and clients were mailed a questionnaire related to the success of therapy, clinical recurrence of signs, and quality of life (QOL) as interpreted by the owner. Signalment, duration and degree of neurologic dysfunction, and medication administration were determined from medical records. RESULTS Ninety-seven percent of dogs (84/87) with complete information were described as ambulatory at initial evaluation. Successful treatment was reported for 48.9% of dogs with 33% having recurrence of clinical signs and 18.1% having therapeutic failure. Bivariable logistic regression showed that non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) administration was associated with success (P=.035; odds ratio [OR]=2.52). Duration of cage rest and glucocorticoid administration were not significantly associated with success or QOL. Dogs with less-severe neurologic dysfunction were more likely to have a successful outcome (OR=2.56), but this association was not significant (P=.051). CONCLUSIONS Medical management can lead to an acceptable outcome in many dogs with presumptive cervical disk herniation. Based on these data, NSAIDs should be considered as part of the therapeutic regimen. Cage rest duration and glucocorticoid administration do not appear to benefit these dogs, but this should be interpreted cautiously because of the retrospective data collection and use of client self-administered questionnaire follow-up. CLINICAL RELEVANCE These results provide insight into the success of medical management for presumptive cervical disk herniation in dogs and may allow for refinement of treatment protocols.

Evaluation of the success of medical management for presumptive thoracolumbar intervertebral disk herniation in dogs.

OBJECTIVE To determine the success of medical management of presumptive thoracolumbar disk herniation in dogs and the variables associated with treatment outcome. STUDY DESIGN Retrospective case series. ANIMALS Dogs (n=223) with presumptive thoracolumbar disk herniation. METHODS Medical records from 2 clinics were used to identify affected dogs, and owners were mailed a questionnaire about success of therapy, recurrence of clinical signs, and quality of life (QOL) as interpreted by the owner. Signalment, duration and degree of neurologic dysfunction, and medication administration were determined from medical records. RESULTS Eighty-three percent of dogs (185/223) were ambulatory at initial evaluation. Successful treatment was reported for 54.7% of dogs, with 30.9% having recurrence of clinical signs and 14.4% classified as therapeutic failures. From bivariable logistic regression, glucocorticoid administration was negatively associated with success (P=.008; odds ratio [OR]=.48) and QOL scores (P=.004; OR=.48). The duration of cage rest was not significantly associated with success or QOL. Nonambulatory dogs were more likely to have lower QOL scores (P=.01; OR=2.34). CONCLUSIONS Medical management can lead to an acceptable outcome in many dogs with presumptive thoracolumbar disk herniation. Cage rest duration does not seem to affect outcome and glucocorticoids may negatively impact success and QOL. The conclusions in this report should be interpreted cautiously because of the retrospective data collection and the use of client self-administered questionnaire follow-up. CLINICAL RELEVANCE These results provide an insight into the success of medical management for presumptive thoracolumbar disk herniation in dogs and may allow for refinement of treatment protocols.

Context Aware e-Learning Objects and their Types from the Perspective of the Object-Oriented Paradigm

The contribution of this article demonstrates how to identify context-aware types of e-Learning objects (eLOs) derived from the subject domains. This perspective is taken from an engineering point of view and is applied during requirements elicitation and analysis relating to present work in constructing an object-oriented (OO), dynamic, and adaptive model to build and deliver packaged e-Learning courses. Consequently, three preliminary subject domains are presented and, as a result, three primitive types of eLOs are posited. These types educed from the subject domains are of structural, conceptual, and granular nature. Structural objects are responsible for the course itself, conceptual objects incorporate adaptive and logical interoperability, while granular objects congregate granular assets. Their differences, interrelationships, and responsibilities are discussed. A major design challenge relates to adaptive behaviour. Future research addresses refinement on the subject domains and adaptive hypermedia systems.

Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence.

Systematic consideration of scientific support is a critical element in developing and, ultimately, using adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for various regulatory applications. Though weight of evidence (WoE) analysis has been proposed as a basis for assessment of the maturity and level of confidence in an AOP, methodologies and tools are still being formalized. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Users' Handbook Supplement to the Guidance Document for Developing and Assessing AOPs (OECD 2014a; hereafter referred to as the OECD AOP Handbook) provides tailored Bradford-Hill (BH) considerations for systematic assessment of confidence in a given AOP. These considerations include (1) biological plausibility and (2) empirical support (dose-response, temporality, and incidence) for Key Event Relationships (KERs), and (3) essentiality of key events (KEs). Here, we test the application of these tailored BH considerations and the guidance outlined in the OECD AOP Handbook using a number of case examples to increase experience in more transparently documenting rationales for assigned levels of confidence to KEs and KERs, and to promote consistency in evaluation within and across AOPs. The major lessons learned from experience are documented, and taken together with the case examples, should contribute to better common understanding of the nature and form of documentation required to increase confidence in the application of AOPs for specific uses. Based on the tailored BH considerations and defining questions, a prototype quantitative model for assessing the WoE of an AOP using tools of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is described. The applicability of the approach is also demonstrated using the case example aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish. Following the acquisition of additional experience in the development and assessment of AOPs, further refinement of parameterization of the model through expert elicitation is recommended. Overall, the application of quantitative WoE approaches hold promise to enhance the rigor, transparency and reproducibility for AOP WoE determinations and may play an important role in delineating areas where research would have the greatest impact on improving the overall confidence in the AOP.

Dissolution-Precipitation in Porous Media: Experiments and Modelling

The evolution of porosity due to dissolution/precipitation processes of minerals and the associated change of transport parameters are of major interest for natural geological environments and engineered underground structures. We designed a reproducible and fast to conduct 2D experiment, which is flexible enough to investigate several process couplings implemented in the numerical code OpenGeosys-GEM (OGS-GEM). We investigated advective-diffusive transport of solutes, effect of liquid phase density on advective transport, and kinetically controlled dissolution/precipitation reactions causing porosity changes. In addition, the system allowed to investigate the influence of microscopic (pore scale) processes on macroscopic (continuum scale) transport. A Plexiglas tank of dimension 10 × 10 cm was filled with a 1 cm thick reactive layer consisting of a bimodal grain size distribution of celestite (SrSO4) crystals, sandwiched between two layers of sand. A barium chloride solution was injected into the tank causing an asymmetric flow field to develop. As the barium chloride reached the celestite region, dissolution of celestite was initiated and barite precipitated. Due to the higher molar volume of barite, its precipitation caused a porosity decrease and thus also a decrease in the permeability of the porous medium. The change of flow in space and time was observed via injection of conservative tracers and analysis of effluents. In addition, an extensive post-mortem analysis of the reacted medium was conducted. We could successfully model the flow (with and without fluid density effects) and the transport of conservative tracers with a (continuum scale) reactive transport model. The prediction of the reactive experiments initially failed. Only the inclusion of information from post-mortem analysis gave a satisfactory match for the case where the flow field changed due to dissolution/precipitation reactions. We concentrated on the refinement of post-mortem analysis and the investigation of the dissolution/precipitation mechanisms at the pore scale. Our analytical techniques combined scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and synchrotron X-ray micro-diffraction/micro-fluorescence performed at the XAS beamline (Swiss Light Source). The newly formed phases include an epitaxial growth of barite micro-crystals on large celestite crystals (epitaxial growth) and a nano-crystalline barite phase (resulting from the dissolution of small celestite crystals) with residues of celestite crystals in the pore interstices. Classical nucleation theory, using well-established and estimated parameters describing barite precipitation, was applied to explain the mineralogical changes occurring in our system. Our pore scale investigation showed limits of the continuum scale reactive transport model. Although kinetic effects were implemented by fixing two distinct rates for the dissolution of large and small celestite crystals, instantaneous precipitation of barite was assumed as soon as oversaturation occurred. Precipitation kinetics, passivation of large celestite crystals and metastability of supersaturated solutions, i.e. the conditions under which nucleation cannot occur despite high supersaturation, were neglected. These results will be used to develop a pore scale model that describes precipitation and dissolution of crystals at the pore scale for various transport and chemical conditions. Pore scale modelling can be used to parameterize constitutive equations to introduce pore-scale corrections into macroscopic (continuum) reactive transport models. Microscopic understanding of the system is fundamental for modelling from the pore to the continuum scale.