An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market

This paper examines the effect that heterogeneous customer orders flows have on exchange rates by using a new, and the largest, proprietary dataset of weekly net order flow segmented by customer type across nine of the most liquid currency pairs. We make several contributions. Firstly, we investigate the extent to which customer order flow can help to explain exchange rate movements over and above the influence of macroeconomic variables. Secondly, we address the issue of whether order flows contain (private) information which explain exchange rates changes. Thirdly, we look at the usefulness of order flow in forecasting exchange rate movements at longer horizons than those generally considered in the microstructure literature. Finally we address the question of whether the out-of-sample exchange rate forecasts generated by order flows can be employed profitably in the foreign exchange markets

A stable phage lysin (Cpl-1) dimer with increased antipneumococcal activity and decreased plasma clearance.

Bacteriophages (phages) produce endolysins (lysins) as part of their lytic cycle in order to degrade the peptidoglycan layer of the infected bacteria for subsequent release of phage progeny. Because these enzymes maintain their lytic and lethal activity against Gram-positive bacteria when added extrinsically to the cells, they have been actively exploited as novel anti-infectives, sometimes termed enzybiotics. As with other relatively small peptides, one issue in their clinical development is their rapid inactivation through proteolytic degradation, immunological blockage and renal clearance. The antipneumococcal lysin Cpl-1 was shown to escape both proteolysis and immunological blockage. However, its short plasma half-life (20.5 min in mice) may represent a shortcoming for clinical usefulness. Here we report the construction of a Cpl-1 dimer with a view to increasing both the antipneumococcal specific activity and plasma half-life of Cpl-1. Dimerisation was achieved by introducing specific cysteine residues at the C-terminal end of the enzyme, thus favouring disulphide bonding. Compared with the native monomer, the constructed dimer demonstrated a two-fold increase in specific antipneumococcal activity and a ca. ten-fold decrease in plasma clearance. As several lysins are suspected to dimerise on contact with their cell wall substrate to be fully active, stable pre-dimerised enzymes may represent a more efficient alternative to the native monomer.

Gene flow among wild and domesticated almond species: insights from chloroplast and nuclear markers

Hybridization has played a central role in the evolutionary history of domesticated plants. Notably, several breeding programs relying on gene introgression from the wild compartment have been performed in fruit tree species within the genus Prunus but few studies investigated spontaneous gene flow among wild and domesticated Prunus species. Consequently, a comprehensive understanding of genetic relationships and levels of gene flow between domesticated and wild Prunus species is needed. Combining nuclear and chloroplastic microsatellites, we investigated the gene flow and hybridization among two key almond tree species, the cultivated Prunus dulcis and one of the most widespread wild relative Prunus orientalis in the Fertile Crescent. We detected high genetic diversity levels in both species along with substantial and symmetric gene flow between the domesticated P. dulcis and the wild P. orientalis. These results were discussed in light of the cultivated species diversity, by outlining the frequent spontaneous genetic contributions of wild species to the domesticated compartment. In addition, crop-to-wild gene flow suggests that ad hoc transgene containment strategies would be required if genetically modified cultivars were introduced in the northwestern Mediterranean.

Microstructure Order Flow: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Nonlinear Forecasts

In this paper we propose a novel empirical extension of the standard market microstructure order flow model. The main idea is that heterogeneity of beliefs in the foreign exchange market can cause model instability and such instability has not been fully accounted for in the existing empirical literature. We investigate this issue using two di¤erent data sets and focusing on out- of-sample forecasts. Forecasting power is measured using standard statistical tests and, additionally, using an alternative approach based on measuring the economic value of forecasts after building a portfolio of assets. We nd there is a substantial economic value on conditioning on the proposed models.

Plasma cell precursors: long-distance travelers looking for a home.

Little is known about the migration of plasma cell precursors to the lymph node medulla. In this issue of Immunity, Fooksman et al. (2010) propose that this migration is largely independent of chemotactic cues but follows a long linear walk of random orientation.

A control flow prototype for a dose recommending device for chronic myeloid leukemia patients

In this paper we present a prototype of a control flow for an a posteriori drug dose adaptation for Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML) patients. The control flow is modeled using Timed Automata extended with Tasks (TAT) model. The feedback loop of the control flow includes the decision-making process for drug dose adaptation. This is based on the outputs of the body response model represented by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm for drug concentration prediction. The decision is further checked for conformity with the dose level rules of a medical guideline. We also have developed an automatic code synthesizer for the icycom platform as an extension of the TIMES tool.

Separation of free amino acids in human plasma by capillary electrophoresis with laser induced fluorescence: potential for emergency diagnosis of inborn errors of metabolism.

Free amino acids (AAs) in human plasma are derivatized with 3-(4-carboxybenzoyl)quinoline-2-carboxaldehyde (CBQCA) and analyzed by capillary electrophoresis (CE) with laser induced fluorescence (LIF) detection. The labeling procedure is significantly improved over results reported previously. Derivatization can be completed in 40 min, with concentrations as low as 4 x 10(-8) M successfully labeled in favourable cases. Twenty-nine AAs (including 2 internal standards) are identified and can be reproducibly separated in 70 min. Migration time RSD values for 23 of these AAs were calculated and found in the range from 0.5 to 4%. The rapid derivatization procedure and the resolution obtained in the separation are sufficient for a semi-quantitative, emergency diagnosis of several inborn errors of metabolism (IEM). Amino acid profiles for both normal donor plasma samples and plasma samples of patients suffering from phenylketonuria, tyrosinemia, maple syrup urinary disease, hyperornithinemia, and citrullinemia are studied.

Advances in pharmacological studies of silymarin

Silymarin is the flavonoids extracted from the seeds of Silybum marianum (L) Gearth as a mixture of three structural isomers: silybin, silydianin and silychristin, the former being the most active component. Silymarin protects liver cell membrane against hepatotoxic agents and improves liver function in experimental animals and humans. It is generally accepted that silymarin exerts a membrane-stabilizing action preventing or inhibiting membrane peroxidation. The experiments with soybean lipoxygenase showed that the three components of silymarin brought about a concentration-dependent non-competitive inhibition of the lipoxygenase. The experiments also showed an analogous interaction with animal lipoxygenase, thus showing that an inhibition of the peroxidation of the fatty acid in vivo was self-evident. Silybin almost completely suppressed the formation of PG at the highest concentration (0.3 mM) and proved to be an inhibitor of PG synthesis in vitro. In our experiments, silybin at lower dose (65 mg/Kg) decreased liver lipoperoxide content and microsomal lipoperoxidation to 84.5% and 68.55% of those of the scalded control rats respectively, and prevented the decrease of liver microsomal cytochrome p-450 content and p-nitroanisole-0-demethylase activity 24 h post-scalding. Effects of silymarin on cardiovascular systen have been studied in this university since 1980. O. O silymarin 800 mg/Kg/d or silybin 600 mg/Kg/d reduced plasma total cholesterol, LDL-C and VLDL-C. They however, enhanced HDL-C in hyperlipenic rats. Further studies showed that silymarin enhanced HDL-C in hyperlipemic rats. Further studies showed that silymarin enhanced HDL-C but didn't affect HDL-C, a property of this component which is beneficial to treatment of atherosclerosis. The results showed silymarin 80 mg or silybin 60 mg decreased in vitro platelet aggregation (porcentagem) in rats. The maximal platelet aggregation induced by ADP declined significantly, and time to reach maximal platelet aggregation and five-minute disaggregation didn't change. In our experiments, iv silybin 22,4 mg/kg lowered the amplitude and duration of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) more than those of systolic (SBP), but the descending aortic blood flow, cardiac contractility and ECG did not change significantly in anesthetized open-chest cats. The results indicated a reduction of peripheral resistance and dilatatory action on the resistant blood vessels. These effects are beneficial to coronary heart disease. We also observed the effects of silybin on morphological change, the release of glutamic oxaloacetate aminotrasferase (GOT) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) as well as the radioactivity of 3H-TdR incorporated into DNA in normal cardiac cells and cells infected by coxsackie B5, virus os newborn rats. The results showed that silynin did not affect the morphology of normal cell, and that the pathological change of cells infected by virus was delayed and reduced as compared to control. We have investigated the effect of silybin on synthesis and release of LTs in the cultured porcine cerebral basilar arteries (PCBA). Silybin 100 and 500 µmol/L declined the amounts of LTs released from the PCBA incubsated in the presence of A 23187, AA and indomenthacin. The result suggests that silybin can inhibit the activity of 5-lipoxygenase of cerebral blood vessel and may protect the brain from ischemia.

Multiplex ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method for simultaneous quantification in human plasma of fluconazole, itraconazole, hydroxyitraconazole, posaconazole, voriconazole, voriconazole-N-oxide, anidulafungin, and caspofungin.

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may contribute to optimizing the efficacy and safety of antifungal therapy because of the large variability in drug pharmacokinetics. Rapid, sensitive, and selective laboratory methods are needed for efficient TDM. Quantification of several antifungals in a single analytical run may best fulfill these requirements. We therefore developed a multiplex ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) method requiring 100 μl of plasma for simultaneous quantification within 7 min of fluconazole, itraconazole, hydroxyitraconazole, posaconazole, voriconazole, voriconazole-N-oxide, caspofungin, and anidulafungin. Protein precipitation with acetonitrile was used in a single extraction procedure for eight analytes. After reverse-phase chromatographic separation, antifungals were quantified by electrospray ionization-triple-quadrupole mass spectrometry by selected reaction monitoring detection using the positive mode. Deuterated isotopic compounds of azole antifungals were used as internal standards. The method was validated based on FDA recommendations, including assessment of extraction yields, matrix effect variability (<9.2%), and analytical recovery (80.1 to 107%). The method is sensitive (lower limits of azole quantification, 0.01 to 0.1 μg/ml; those of echinocandin quantification, 0.06 to 0.1 μg/ml), accurate (intra- and interassay biases of -9.9 to +5% and -4.0 to +8.8%, respectively), and precise (intra- and interassay coefficients of variation of 1.2 to 11.1% and 1.2 to 8.9%, respectively) over clinical concentration ranges (upper limits of quantification, 5 to 50 μg/ml). Thus, we developed a simple, rapid, and robust multiplex UPLC-MS/MS assay for simultaneous quantification of plasma concentrations of six antifungals and two metabolites. This offers, by optimized and cost-effective lab resource utilization, an efficient tool for daily routine TDM aimed at maximizing the real-time efficacy and safety of different recommended single-drug antifungal regimens and combination salvage therapies, as well as a tool for clinical research.

Is intra-operative blood flow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula?

BACKGROUND: For over 50 years, radiocephalic wrist arteriovenous fistulae (RCAVF) have been the primary and best vascular access for haemodialysis. Nevertheless, early failure due to thrombosis or non-maturation is a major complication resulting in their abandonment. This prospective study was designed to investigate the predictive value of intra-operative blood flow on early failure of primary RCAVF before the first effective dialysis. METHODS: We enrolled patients undergoing creation of primary RCAVF for haemodialysis based on the pre-operative ultrasound vascular mapping discussed in a multidisciplinary approach. Intra-operative blood flow measurement was systematically performed once the anastomosis had been completed using a transit-time ultrasonic flowmeter. During the follow-up, blood flow was estimated by colour flow ultrasound at various intervals. Any events related to the RCAVF were recorded. RESULTS: Autogenous RCAVFs (n = 58) in 58 patients were constructed and followed up for an average of 30 days. Thrombosis and non-maturation occurred in eight (14%) and four (7%) patients, respectively. The intra-operative blood flow in functioning RCAVFs was significantly higher compared to non-functioning RCAVFs (230 vs 98 mL/min; P = 0.007), as well as 1 week (753 vs 228 mL/min; P = 0.0008) and 4 weeks (915 vs 245 mL/min, P < 0.0001) later. Blood flow volume measurements with a cut-off value of 120 mL/min had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 75% and positive predictive value of 91%. CONCLUSIONS: Blood flow <120 mL has a good predictive value for early failure in RCAVF. During the procedure, this cut-off value may be used to select appropriately which RCAVF should be investigated in the operation theatre in order to correct in real time any abnormality.

Plasma Level of Mmp-9 as Predictive Factor for Response and Progression Free Survival in Patients Treated with Bevacizumab (Bev) and Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin (Pld): Sakk 24/06

Background: There is currently no identified marker predicting benefit from Bev in patients with breast cancer (pts). We monitored prospectively 6 angiogenesis-related factors in the blood of advanced stage pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD in a phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, SAKK.Methods: Pts received PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bev (10 mg/kg) every 2 weeks for a maximum of 12 administrations, followed by Bev monotherapy until progression or severe toxicity. Blood samples were collected at baseline, during treatment and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&DSystems and Reliatech) were used to measure vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) and soluble VEGF receptors -1, -2 and -3. The natural log-transformed (ln) data for each factor was analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to investigate differences between the mean values of the subgroups of interest (where a = 0.05), based on the best tumor response by RECIST.Results: 132 samples were collected in 41 pts. The mean of baseline ln MMP-9 levels was significantly lower in pts with tumor progression than those with tumor response (p=0.0202, log fold change=0.8786) or disease control (p=0.0035, log fold change=0.8427). Higher MMP-9 level was a significant predictor of superior progression free survival (PFS): p=0.0417, hazard ratio=0.574, 95% CI=0.336-0.979. In a multivariate cox proportional hazards model, containing performance status, disease free interval, number of tumor sites, visceral involvement and prior adjuvant chemotherapy, using stepwise regression baseline MMP-9 was still a statistically 117P Table 1. SOLTI-0701* AC01B07* NU07B1* SOR+CAP N=20 PL+CAP N=33 SOR+ GEM/CAP N=23 PL+ GEM/CAP N=27 SOR+PAC N=48 PL+PAC N=46 Baseline characteristics Age, median (range), y 49 (32-72) 53 (30-78 54 (32-69) 57 (31-82) 50 (27-80) 52 (23-74) AJCC stage, n (%) IIIB/IIIC 3 (15) 6 (18) 0 (0) 3 (11) 8 (17) 9 (20) IV 17 (85) 27 (82) 23 (100) 24 (89) 40 (83) 37 (80) Metastatic site, n (%) Non-visceral 3 (15) 6 (18) 7 (30) 6 (22) 9 (19) 17 (37) Visceral 17 (85) 27 (82) 16 (70) 21 (78) 39 (81) 29 (63) Prior metastatic chemo, n (%) 8 (40) 15 (45) 21 (91) 25 (93) - - Efficacy PFS, median, mo 4.3 2.5 3.1 2.6 5.6 5.5 HR (95% CI)_ 0.60 (0.31, 1.14) 0.57 (0.30, 1.09) 0.86 (0.50, 1.45) 1-sided P value_ 0.055 0.044 0.281 Overall survival, median, mo 17.5 16.1 Pending 14.7 18.2 HR (95% CI)_ 0.98 (0.50, 1.89) 1.11 (0.64, 1.94) 1-sided P value_ 0.476 0.352 Safety N=20 N=33 N=22 N=27 N=46 N=46 Tx-emergent Grade 3/4, n (%) 15 (75) 16 (48) 20 (91) 17 (63) 36 (78) 16 (35) Grade 3§ hand-foot skin reaction/ syndrome 8 (40) 5 (15) 8 (36) 0 (0) 14 (30) 2 (4) *Efficacy results based on intent-to-treat population and safety results based on safety population (pts who received study drug[s]); _Cox regression within each subgroup; _log-rank test within each subgroup; §maximum toxicity grade for hand-foot skin reaction/syndrome; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer mittedabstractsª The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com Downloaded from annonc.oxfordjournals.org at Bibliotheque Cantonale et Universitaire on June 6, 2011 significant factor (p=0.0266). The results of the other measured factors were presented elsewhere.Conclusions: Higher levels of MMP-9 could predict tumor response and superior PFSin pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD. These exploratory results justify further investigations of MMP-9 in pts treated with Bev combinations in order to assess its role as a prognostic and predictive factor.Disclosure: K. Zaman: Participation in advisory board of Roche; partial sponsoring ofthe study by Roche (the main sponsor was the Swiss Federation against Cancer (Oncosuisse)). B. Thu¨rlimann: stock of Roche; Research grants from Roche. R. vonMoos: Participant of Advisory Board and Speaker honoraria