An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III

This study compares Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for Australian banks over a period that includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to determine whether the methodology and parameter selection are important for capital adequacy holdings that will ultimately support a bank in a crisis period. VaR methodology promoted under Basel II was largely criticised during the GFC for its failure to capture downside risk. However, results from this study indicate that 1-year parametric and historical models produce better measures of VaR than models with longer time frames. VaR estimates produced using Monte Carlo simulations show a high percentage of violations but with lower average magnitude of a violation when they occur. VaR estimates produced by the ARMA GARCH model also show a relatively high percentage of violations, however, the average magnitude of a violation is quite low. Our findings support the design of the revised Basel II VaR methodology which has also been adopted under Basel III.

EVERSUN: A phase 2 trial of alternating sunitinib and everolimus as first-line therapy for advanced renal cell carcinoma

Background We hypothesised that alternating inhibitors of the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR) and mammalian target of rapamycin pathways would delay the development of resistance in advanced renal cell carcinoma (aRCC). Patients and methods A single-arm, two-stage, multicentre, phase 2 trial to determine the activity, feasibility, and safety of 12-week cycles of sunitinib 50 mg daily 4 weeks on / 2 weeks off, alternating with everolimus 10 mg daily for 5 weeks on / 1 week off, until disease progression or prohibitive toxicity in favourable or intermediate-risk aRCC. The primary end point was proportion alive and progression-free at 6 months (PFS6m). The secondary end points were feasibility, tumour response, overall survival (OS), and adverse events (AEs). The correlative objective was to assess biomarkers and correlate with clinical outcome. Results We recruited 55 eligible participants from September 2010 to August 2012. Demographics: mean age 61, 71% male, favourable risk 16%, intermediate risk 84%. Cycle 2 commenced within 14 weeks for 80% of participants; 64% received ≥22 weeks of alternating therapy; 78% received ≥22 weeks of any treatment. PFS6m was 29/55 (53%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 40% to 66%). Tumour response rate was 7/55 (13%; 95% CI 4% to 22%, all partial responses). After median follow-up of 20 months, 47 of 55 (86%) had progressed with a median progression-free survival of 8 months (95% CI 5–10), and 30 of 55 (55%) had died with a median OS of 17 months (95% CI 12–undefined). AEs were consistent with those expected for each single agent. No convincing prognostic biomarkers were identified. Conclusions The EVERSUN regimen was feasible and safe, but its activity did not meet pre-specified values to warrant further research. This supports the current approach of continuing anti-VEGF therapy until progression or prohibitive toxicity before changing treatment.

Defining anthropometric cut-off levels related to metabolic risk in a group of Sri Lankan children

Background: Body mass index (BMI) is widely used as a measure of adiposity. However, currently used cut-off values are not sensitive in diagnosing obesity in South Asian populations. Aim: To define BMI and waist circumference (WC), cut-off values representing percentage fat mass (%FM) associated with adverse health outcomes. Subjects and methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study of 285 5–14 year old Sri Lankan children (56% boys) was carried out. Fat mass (FM) was assessed using the isotope (D2O) dilution technique based on 2C body composition model. BMI and WC cut-off values were defined based on %FM associated with adverse health outcomes. Results: Sri Lankan children had a low fat free mass index (FFMI) and a high fat mass index (FMI). Individuals with the same BMI had %FM distributed over a wide range. Lean body tissue grew very little with advancing age and weight gain was mainly due to increases in body fat. BMI corresponding to 25% in males and 35% in females at 18 years was 19.2 kg/m2 and 19.7 kg/m2, respectively. WC cut-off values for males and females were 68.4 cm and 70.4 cm, respectively. Conclusion: This chart analysis clearly confirms that Sri Lankan children have a high %FM from a young age. With age, more changes occur in FM than in fat free mass (FFM). Although the newly defined BMI and WC cut-off values appear to be quite low, they are comparable to some recent data obtained in similar populations.

A virtual radiation therapy workflow training simulation

Aim Simulation forms an increasingly vital component of clinical skills development in a wide range of professional disciplines. Simulation of clinical techniques and equipment is designed to better prepare students for placement by providing an opportunity to learn technical skills in a “safe” academic environment. In radiotherapy training over the last decade or so this has predominantly comprised treatment planning software and small ancillary equipment such as mould room apparatus. Recent virtual reality developments have dramatically changed this approach. Innovative new simulation applications and file processing and interrogation software have helped to fill in the gaps to provide a streamlined virtual workflow solution. This paper outlines the innovations that have enabled this, along with an evaluation of the impact on students and educators. Method Virtual reality software and workflow applications have been developed to enable the following steps of radiation therapy to be simulated in an academic environment: CT scanning using a 3D virtual CT scanner simulation; batch CT duplication; treatment planning; 3D plan evaluation using a virtual linear accelerator; quantitative plan assessment, patient setup with lasers; and image guided radiotherapy software. Results Evaluation of the impact of the virtual reality workflow system highlighted substantial time saving for academic staff as well as positive feedback from students relating to preparation for clinical placements. Students valued practice in the “safe” environment and the opportunity to understand the clinical workflow ahead of clinical department experience. Conclusion Simulation of most of the radiation therapy workflow and tasks is feasible using a raft of virtual reality simulation applications and supporting software. Benefits of this approach include time-saving, embedding of a case-study based approach, increased student confidence, and optimal use of the clinical environment. Ongoing work seeks to determine the impact of simulation on clinical skills.

Eccentric knee-flexor strength and risk of hamstring injuries in Rugby Union: A prospective study

BACKGROUND Hamstring strain injuries (HSIs) represent the most common cause of lost playing time in rugby union. Eccentric knee-flexor weakness and between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee-flexor strength are associated with a heightened risk of hamstring injury in other sports; however these variables have not been explored in rugby union. PURPOSE To determine if lower levels of eccentric knee-flexor strength or greater between-limb imbalance in this parameter during the Nordic hamstring exercise are risk-factors for hamstring strain injury in rugby union. STUDY DESIGN Cohort study; level of evidence, 3. METHODS This prospective study was conducted over the 2014 Super Rugby and Queensland Rugby Union seasons. In total, 178 rugby union players (age, 22.6 ± 3.8 years; height, 185 ± 6.8 cm; mass, 96.5 ± 13.1 kg) had their eccentric knee-flexor strength assessed using a custom-made device during the pre-season. Reports of previous hamstring, quadriceps, groin, calf and anterior cruciate ligament injury were also obtained. The main outcome measure was prospective occurrence of hamstring strain injury. RESULTS Twenty players suffered at least one hamstring strain during the study period. Players with a history of hamstring strain injury had 4.1 fold (RR = 4.1, 95% CI = 1.9 to 8.9, p = 0.001) greater risk of subsequent hamstring injury than players without such history. Between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee-flexor strength of ≥ 15% and ≥ 20% increased the risk of hamstring strain injury 2.4 fold (RR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.1 to 5.5, p = 0.033) and 3.4 fold (RR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.5 to 7.6, p = 0.003), respectively. Lower eccentric knee flexor strength and other prior injuries were not associated with increased risk of future hamstring strain. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that the risk of re-injury was augmented in players with strength imbalances. CONCLUSION Previous hamstring strain injury and between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee-flexor strength were associated with an increased risk of future hamstring strain injury in rugby union. These results support the rationale for reducing imbalance, particularly in players who have suffered a prior hamstring injury, to mitigate the risk of future injury.

Is there evidence to support the use of the angle of peak torque as a marker of hamstring injury and re-injury risk?

Hamstring strain injuries are the predominant injury in many sports, costing athletes and clubs a significant financial and performance burden. Therefore the ability to identify and intervene with individuals who are considered at a high risk of injury is important. One measure which has grown in popularity as an outcome variable following hamstring intervention/prevention studies and rehabilitation is the angle of peak knee flexor torque. This current opinion article will firstly introduce the measure and the processes behind it. Secondly, this article will summarise how the angle of peak knee flexor torque has been suggested to measure hamstring strain injury risk. Finally various limitations will be presented and outlined as to how they may influence the measure. These include the lack of muscle specificity, the common concentric contraction mode of assessment, reliability of the measure, various neural contributions (such as rate of force development and neuromuscular inhibition) as well as the lack of prospective data showing any predictive value in the measure.

Genome-wide association study using extreme truncate selection identifies novel genes affecting bone mineral density and fracture risk

Osteoporotic fracture is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Low bone mineral density (BMD) is a major predisposing factor to fracture and is known to be highly heritable. Site-, gender-, and age-specific genetic effects on BMD are thought to be significant, but have largely not been considered in the design of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of BMD to date. We report here a GWAS using a novel study design focusing on women of a specific age (postmenopausal women, age 55-85 years), with either extreme high or low hip BMD (age- and gender-adjusted BMD z-scores of +1.5 to +4.0, n = 1055, or -4.0 to -1.5, n = 900), with replication in cohorts of women drawn from the general population (n = 20,898). The study replicates 21 of 26 known BMD-associated genes. Additionally, we report suggestive association of a further six new genetic associations in or around the genes CLCN7, GALNT3, IBSP, LTBP3, RSPO3, and SOX4, with replication in two independent datasets. A novel mouse model with a loss-of-function mutation in GALNT3 is also reported, which has high bone mass, supporting the involvement of this gene in BMD determination. In addition to identifying further genes associated with BMD, this study confirms the efficiency of extreme-truncate selection designs for quantitative trait association studies. © 2011 Duncan et al.

WNT16 influences bone mineral density, cortical bone thickness, bone strength, and osteoporotic fracture risk

We aimed to identify genetic variants associated with cortical bone thickness (CBT) and bone mineral density (BMD) by performing two separate genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses for CBT in 3 cohorts comprising 5,878 European subjects and for BMD in 5 cohorts comprising 5,672 individuals. We then assessed selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for osteoporotic fracture in 2,023 cases and 3,740 controls. Association with CBT and forearm BMD was tested for ~2.5 million SNPs in each cohort separately, and results were meta-analyzed using fixed effect meta-analysis. We identified a missense SNP (Thr>Ile; rs2707466) located in the WNT16 gene (7q31), associated with CBT (effect size of -0.11 standard deviations [SD] per C allele, P = 6.2×10-9). This SNP, as well as another nonsynonymous SNP rs2908004 (Gly>Arg), also had genome-wide significant association with forearm BMD (-0.14 SD per C allele, P = 2.3×10-12, and -0.16 SD per G allele, P = 1.2×10-15, respectively). Four genome-wide significant SNPs arising from BMD meta-analysis were tested for association with forearm fracture. SNP rs7776725 in FAM3C, a gene adjacent to WNT16, was associated with a genome-wide significant increased risk of forearm fracture (OR = 1.33, P = 7.3×10-9), with genome-wide suggestive signals from the two missense variants in WNT16 (rs2908004: OR = 1.22, P = 4.9×10-6 and rs2707466: OR = 1.22, P = 7.2×10-6). We next generated a homozygous mouse with targeted disruption of Wnt16. Female Wnt16-/- mice had 27% (P<0.001) thinner cortical bones at the femur midshaft, and bone strength measures were reduced between 43%-61% (6.5×10-13<P<5.9×10-4) at both femur and tibia, compared with their wild-type littermates. Natural variation in humans and targeted disruption in mice demonstrate that WNT16 is an important determinant of CBT, BMD, bone strength, and risk of fracture. © 2012 Zheng et al.

The MS risk allele of CD40 is associated with reduced cell-membrane bound expression in antigen presenting cells: Implications for gene function

Human genetic and animal studies have implicated the costimulatory molecule CD40 in the development of multiple sclerosis (MS). We investigated the cell specific gene and protein expression variation controlled by the CD40 genetic variant(s) associated with MS, i.e. the T-allele at rs1883832. Previously we had shown that the risk allele is expressed at a lower level in whole blood, especially in people with MS. Here, we have defined the immune cell subsets responsible for genotype and disease effects on CD40 expression at the mRNA and protein level. In cell subsets in which CD40 is most highly expressed, B lymphocytes and dendritic cells, the MS-associated risk variant is associated with reduced CD40 cell-surface protein expression. In monocytes and dendritic cells, the risk allele additionally reduces the ratio of expression of full-length versus truncated CD40 mRNA, the latter encoding secreted CD40. We additionally show that MS patients, regardless of genotype, express significantly lower levels of CD40 cell-surface protein compared to unaffected controls in B lymphocytes. Thus, both genotype-dependent and independent down-regulation of cell-surface CD40 is a feature of MS. Lower expression of a co-stimulator of T cell activation, CD40, is therefore associated with increased MS risk despite the same CD40 variant being associated with reduced risk of other inflammatory autoimmune diseases. Our results highlight the complexity and likely individuality of autoimmune pathogenesis, and could be consistent with antiviral and/or immunoregulatory functions of CD40 playing an important role in protection from MS. © 2015 Field et al.

Identification of mechanism, PECARN risk factors and injury patterns in severe paediatric cervical spine injuries in Queensland

Introduction Canadian C spine rule and NEXUS criteria have identified risk factors for cervical spine injury in adults but not for children. PECARN has developed an 8 variable model for cervical spine injury in children. We sought to identify the mechanism, prevalence of PECARN risk factors, injury patterns, and management of severe Paediatric cervical spine injuries presenting to the major children’s hospitals in Brisbane, Australia. Methods This a retrospective study of the children with cervical spine injuries who presented directly or were referred to the major children’s hospitals in Brisbane over 5 years. Results There were 38 patients with 18 male and 20 female.The mean age was 8.6 years. They were divided into two groups according to their age, (Group 1 < =8 years had 18 (47%) patients, while group 2 (9-15 years) had 20 (53%) patients. Motor vehicle related injuries were the most common (61%) in Group 1 while it was sporting injuries (50%) in group 2. All patients in group 1 had upper cervical injury (C0-C2) while subaxial injuries were most common in group 2 (66.6%). 82% of the patients had 2 or more PECARN risk factors. 18 children (47%) had normal neurological assessment at presentation, 6 (16%) had radicular symptoms, 11 (29%) could not be assessed as they had already been intubated due to the severity of the injury, 3 (8%) had incomplete cord injury. 29 (69%) patients had normal neurological assessment at final follow up and 2 children died from their injuries. Conclusion Our study confirms that younger children sustain upper cervical injuries most commonly secondary to motor vehicle accidents, while the older sustain subaxial injuries from sporting activities. The significant prevalence of the PECARN risk factors among this cohort of patients have led to them being incorporated into a protocol at these hospitals used to assess patients with suspected cervical spinal injury.

Practice patterns of radiation therapy technology in Australia: Results of a national audit

This article presents the results of a single-day census of radiation therapy (RT) treatment and technology use in Australia. The primary aim of the study was to ascertain patterns of RT practice and technology in use across Australia. These data were primarily collated to inform curriculum development of academic programs, thereby ensuring that training is matched to workforce patterns of practice. Methods: The study design was a census method with all 59 RT centres in Australia being invited to provide quantitative summary data relating to patient case mix and technology use on a randomly selected but common date. Anonymous and demographic-free data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Results: Overall data were provided across all six Australian States by 29 centres of a possible 59, yielding a response rate of 49% and representing a total of 2743 patients. Findings from this study indicate the increasing use of emerging intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), image fusion and image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) technology in Australian RT planning and delivery phases. IMRT in particular was used for 37% of patients, indicating a high uptake of the technology in Australia when compared to other published data. The results also highlight the resource-intensive nature of benign tumour radiotherapy. Conclusions: In the absence of routine national data collection, the single-day census method offers a relatively convenient means of measuring and tracking RT resource utilisation. Wider use of this tool has the potential to not only track trends in technology implementation but also inform evidence-based guidelines for referral and resource planning.

Factors influencing radiation therapy student clinical placement satisfaction

Introduction Radiation therapy students at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) attend clinical placements at five different clinical departments with varying resources and support strategies. This study aimed to determine the relative availability and perceived importance of different factors affecting student support while on clinical placement. The purpose of the research was to inform development of future support mechanisms to enhance radiation therapy students’ experience on clinical placement. Methods This study used anonymous Likert-style surveys to gather data from years 1 and 2 radiation therapy students from QUT and clinical educators from Queensland relating to availability and importance of support mechanisms during clinical placements in a semester. Results The study findings demonstrated student satisfaction with clinical support and suggested that level of support on placement influenced student employment choices. Staff support was perceived as more important than physical resources; particularly access to a named mentor, a clinical educator and weekly formative feedback. Both students and educators highlighted the impact of time pressures. Conclusions The support offered to radiation therapy students by clinical staff is more highly valued than physical resources or models of placement support. Protected time and acknowledgement of the importance of clinical education roles are both invaluable. Joint investment in mentor support by both universities and clinical departments is crucial for facilitation of effective clinical learning.

Common polygenic variation contributes to risk of migraine in the Norfolk Island population

Migraine has been defined as a common disabling primary headache disorder. Epidemiology studies have provided with the undeniable evidence of genetic components as active players in the development of the disease under a polygenic model in which multiple risk alleles exert modest individual effects. Our objective was to test the contribution of a polygenic effect to migraine risk in the Norfolk Island population using a panel of SNPs reported to be disease associated in published migraine GWAS. We also investigated whether individual SNPs were associated with gene expression levels measured in whole-blood. Polygenic scores were calculated in a total of 285 related individuals (74 cases, 211 controls) from the Norfolk Island using 51 SNPs previously reported to be associated with migraine in published GWAS. The association between polygenic score and migraine case-control status was tested using logistic regression. Results indicate that a migraine polygenic risk score was associated with migraine case-control status in this population (P=0.016). This supports the hypothesis that multiple SNPs with weak effects collectively contribute to migraine risk in this population. Amongst the SNPs included in the polygenic model, 4 were associated with the expression of the USMG5 gene, including rs171251 (P = 0.012). Results from this study provide evidence for a polygenic contribution to migraine risk in an isolated population and highlight specific SNPs that regulate the expression of USMG5, a gene critical for mitochondrial function.

Recurrence risk modelling of the genetic susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis

Objectives - It has long been suspected that susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is influenced by genes lying distant to the major histocompatibility complex. This study compares genetic models of AS to assess the most likely mode of inheritance, using recurrence risk ratios in relatives of affected subjects. Methods - Recurrence risk ratios in different degrees of relatives were determined using published data from studies specifically designed to address the question. The methods of Risch were used to determine the expected recurrence risk ratios in different degrees of relatives, assuming equal first degree relative recurrence risk between models. Goodness of fit was determined by χ2 comparison of the expected number of affected subjects with the observed number, given equal numbers of each type of relative studied. Results - The recurrence risks in different degrees of relatives were: monozygotic (MZ) twins 63% (17/27), first degree relatives 8.2% (441/5390), second degree relatives 1.0% (8/834), and third degree relatives 0.7% (7/997). Parent-child recurrence risk (7.9%, 37/466) was not significantly different from the sibling recurrence risk (8.2%, 404/4924), excluding a significant dominance genetic component to susceptibility. Poor fitting models included single gene, genetic heterogeneity, additive, two locus multiplicative, and one locus and residual polygenes (χ2 > 32 (two degrees of freedom), p < 10-6 for all models). The best fitting model studied was a five locus model with multiplicative interaction between loci (χ2 = 1.4 (two degrees of freedom), p = 0.5). Oligogenic multiplicative models were the best fitting over a range of population prevalences and first degree recurrence risk rates. Conclusions - This study suggests that of the genetic models tested, the most likely model operating in AS is an oligogenic model with predominantly multiplicative interaction between loci.

Finnish HLA studies confirm the increased risk conferred by HLA-B27 homozygosity in ankylosing spondylitis

Objective: To determine the influence of HLA-B27 homozygosity and HLA-DRB1 alleles in the susceptibility to, and severity of, ankylosing spondylitis in a Finnish population. Methods: 673 individuals from 261 families with ankylosing spondylitis were genotyped for HLA-DRB1 alleles and HLA-B27 heterozygosity/ homozygosity. The frequencies of HLA-B27 homozygotes in probands from these families were compared with the expected number of HLA-B27 homozygotes in controls under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). The effect of HLA-DRB1 alleles was assessed using a logistic regression procedure conditioned on HLA-B27 and case-control analysis. Results: HLA-B27 was detected in 93% of cases of ankylosing spondylitis. An overrepresentation of HLA-B27 homozygotes was noted in ankylosing spondylitis (11%) compared with the expected number of HLA-B27 homozygotes under HWE (4%) (odds ratio (OR) = 3.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.6 to 6.8), p = 0.002). HLA-B27 homozygosity was marginally associated with reduced BASDAI (HLA-B27 homozygotes, 4.5 (1.6); HLA-B27 heterozygotes, 5.4 (1.8) (mean (SD)), p = 0.05). Acute anterior uveitis (AAU) was present in significantly more HLA-B27 positive cases (50%) than HLA-B27 negative cases (16%) (OR = 5.4 (1.7 to 17), p<0.004). HLA-B27 positive cases had a lower average age of symptom onset (26.7 (8.0) years) compared with HLA-B27 negative cases (35.7 (11.2) years) (p<0.0001). Conclusions: HLA-627 homozygosity is associated with a moderately increased risk of ankylosing spondylitis compared with HLA-β27 heterozygosity. HLA-B27 positive cases had an earlier age of onset of ankylosing spondylitis than HLA-B27 negative cases and were more likely to develop AAU. HLA-DRB1 alleles may influence the age of symptom onset of ankylosing spondylitis.