An estimate of the global impact of multiple scattering by clouds on outgoing long-wave radiation

Although the potential importance of scattering of long-wave radiation by clouds has been recognised, most studies have concentrated on the impact of high clouds and few estimates of the global impact of scattering have been presented. This study shows that scattering in low clouds has a significant impact on outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) in regions of marine stratocumulus (-3.5 W m(-2) for overcast conditions) where the column water vapour is relatively low. This corresponds to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect of such clouds by 10%. The near-global impact of scattering on OLR is estimated to be -3.0 W m(-2), with low clouds contributing -0.9 W m(-2), mid-level cloud -0.7 W m(-2) and high clouds -1.4 W m(-2). Although this effect appears small compared to the global mean OLR of 240 W m(-2), it indicates that neglect of scattering will lead to an error in cloud long-wave forcing of about 10% and an error in net cloud forcing of about 20%.

The climate sensitivity and its components diagnosed from Earth Radiation Budget data

One of the major uncertainties in the ability to predict future climate change, and hence its impacts, is the lack of knowledge of the earth's climate sensitivity. Here, data are combined from the 1985-96 Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) with surface temperature change information and estimates of radiative forcing to diagnose the climate sensitivity. Importantly, the estimate is completely independent of climate model results. A climate feedback parameter of 2.3 +/- 1.4 W m(-2) K-1 is found. This corresponds to a 1.0-4.1-K range for the equilibrium warming due to a doubling of carbon dioxide (assuming Gaussian errors in observable parameters, which is approximately equivalent to a uniform "prior" in feedback parameter). The uncertainty range is due to a combination of the short time period for the analysis as well as uncertainties in the surface temperature time series and radiative forcing time series, mostly the former. Radiative forcings may not all be fully accounted for; however, all argument is presented that the estimate of climate sensitivity is still likely to be representative of longer-term climate change. The methodology can be used to 1) retrieve shortwave and longwave components of climate feedback and 2) suggest clear-sky and cloud feedback terms. There is preliminary evidence of a neutral or even negative longwave feedback in the observations, suggesting that current climate models may not be representing some processes correctly if they give a net positive longwave feedback.

Assessment of the consistency of near-infrared water vapor line intensities using high-spectral-resolution ground-based Fourier transform measurements of solar radiation

Calculations of the absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric gases, and water vapor in particular, are dependent on the quality of databases of spectral line parameters. There has been increasing scrutiny of databases such as HITRAN in recent years, but this has mostly been performed on a band-by-band basis. We report nine high-spectral-resolution (0.03 cm(-1)) measurements of the solar radiation reaching the surface in southern England over the wave number range 2000 to 12,500 cm(-1) (0.8 to 5 mm) that allow a unique assessment of the consistency of the spectral line databases over this entire spectral region. The data are assessed in terms of the modeled water vapor column that is required to bring calculations and observations into agreement; for an entirely consistent database, this water vapor column should be constant with frequency. For the HITRAN01 database, the spread in water vapor column is about 11%, with distinct shifts between different spectral regions. The HITRAN04 database is in significantly better agreement (about 5% spread) in the completely updated 3000 to 8000 cm(-1) spectral region, but inconsistencies between individual spectral regions remain: for example, in the 8000 to 9500 cm(-1) spectral region, the results indicate an 18% (+/- 1%) underestimate in line intensities with respect to the 3000 to 8000 cm(-1) region. These measurements also indicate the impact of isotopic fractionation of water vapor in the 2500 to 2900 cm(-1) range, where HDO lines dominate over the lines of the most abundant isotope of H2O.

A pattern language for goals

Previous work has established the value of goal-oriented approaches to requirements engineering. Achieving clarity and agreement about stakeholders’ goals and assumptions is critical for building successful software systems and managing their subsequent evolution. In general, this decision-making process requires stakeholders to understand the implications of decisions outside the domains of their own expertise. Hence it is important to support goal negotiation and decision making with description languages that are both precise and expressive, yet easy to grasp. This paper presents work in progress to develop a pattern language for describing goal refinement graphs. The language has a simple graphical notation, which is supported by a prototype editor tool, and a symbolic notation based on modal logic.

Discriminative pattern mining in software fault detection

We present a method to enhance fault localization for software systems based on a frequent pattern mining algorithm. Our method is based on a large set of test cases for a given set of programs in which faults can be detected. The test executions are recorded as function call trees. Based on test oracles the tests can be classified into successful and failing tests. A frequent pattern mining algorithm is used to identify frequent subtrees in successful and failing test executions. This information is used to rank functions according to their likelihood of containing a fault. The ranking suggests an order in which to examine the functions during fault analysis. We validate our approach experimentally using a subset of Siemens benchmark programs.

Syk-Dependent Cytokine Induction by Dectin-1 Reveals a Novel Pattern Recognition Pathway for C Type Lectins

Pattern-recognition receptors (PRRs) detect molecular signatures of microbes and initiate immune responses to infection. Prototypical PRRs such as Toll-like receptors (TLRs) signal via a conserved pathway to induce innate response genes. In contrast, the signaling pathways engaged by other classes of putative PRRs remain ill defined. Here, we demonstrate that the β-glucan receptor Dectin-1, a yeast binding C type lectin known to synergize with TLR2 to induce TNFα and IL-12, can also promote synthesis of IL-2 and IL-10 through phosphorylation of the membrane proximal tyrosine in the cytoplasmic domain and recruitment of Syk kinase. syk−/− dendritic cells (DCs) do not make IL-10 or IL-2 upon yeast stimulation but produce IL-12, indicating that the Dectin-1/Syk and Dectin-1/TLR2 pathways can operate independently. These results identify a novel signaling pathway involved in pattern recognition by C type lectins and suggest a potential role for Syk kinase in regulation of innate immunity.

Evaluation of the model representation of the evolution of convective systems using satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation

We introduce a technique for assessing the diurnal development of convective storm systems based on outgoing longwave radiation fields. Using the size distribution of the storms measured from a series of images, we generate an array in the lengthscale-time domain based on the standard score statistic. It demonstrates succinctly the size evolution of storms as well as the dissipation kinematics. It also provides evidence related to the temperature evolution of the cloud tops. We apply this approach to a test case comparing observations made by the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument to output from the Met Office Unified Model run at two resolutions. The 12km resolution model produces peak convective activity on all lengthscales significantly earlier in the day than shown by the observations and no evidence for storms growing in size. The 4km resolution model shows realistic timing and growth evolution although the dissipation mechanism still differs from the observed data.

Analysis of the calving pattern of herds in small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico

This study sets out to find the best calving pattern for small-scale dairy systems in Michoacan State, central Mexico. Two models were built. First, a linear programming model was constructed to optimize calving pattern and herd structure according to metabolizable energy availability. Second, a Markov chain model was built to investigate three reproductive scenarios (good, average and poor) in order to suggest factors that maintain the calving pattern given by the linear programming model. Though it was not possible to maintain the optimal linear programming pattern, the Markov chain model suggested adopting different reproduction strategies according to period of the year that the cow is expected to calve. Comparing different scenarios, the Markov model indicated the effect of calving interval on calving pattern and herd structure.

Microbe-associated molecular pattern (MAMP) signatures, synergy, size and charge: influences on perception or mobility and host defence responses

Triggering of defences by microbes has mainly been investigated using single elicitors or microbe-associated molecular patterns (MAMPs), but MAMPs are released in planta as complex mixtures together with endogenous oligogalacturonan (OGA) elicitor. We investigated the early responses in Arabidopsis of calcium influx and oxidative burst induced by non-saturating concentrations of bacterial MAMPs, used singly and in combination: flagellin peptide (flg22), elongation factor peptide (elf18), peptidoglycan (PGN) and component muropeptides, lipo-oligosaccharide (LOS) and core oligosaccharides. This revealed that some MAMPs have additive (e.g. flg22 with elf18) and even synergistic (flg22 and LOS) effects, whereas others mutually interfere (flg22 with OGA). OGA suppression of flg22-induced defences was not a result of the interference with the binding of flg22 to its receptor flagellin-sensitive 2 (FLS2). MAMPs induce different calcium influx signatures, but these are concentration dependent and unlikely to explain the differential induction of defence genes [pathogenesis-related gene 1 (PR1), plant defensin gene 1.2 (PDF1.2) and phenylalanine ammonia lyase gene 1 (PAL1)] by flg22, elf18 and OGA. The peptide MAMPs are potent elicitors at subnanomolar levels, whereas PGN and LOS at high concentrations induce low and late host responses. This difference might be a result of the restricted access by plant cell walls of MAMPs to their putative cellular receptors. flg22 is restricted by ionic effects, yet rapidly permeates a cell wall matrix, whereas LOS, which forms supramolecular aggregates, is severely constrained, presumably by molecular sieving. Thus, MAMPs can interact with each other, whether directly or indirectly, and with the host wall matrix. These phenomena, which have not been considered in detail previously, are likely to influence the speed, magnitude, versatility and composition of plant defences.

Evidence for complex multigenic inheritance of radiation AML susceptibility in mice revealed using a surrogate phenotypic assay

The mapping of genes which affect individual cancer risk is an important but complex challenge. A surrogate assay of susceptibility to radiation-induced acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) in the mouse based on chromosomal radiosensitivity has been developed and validated. This assay was applied to the mapping of radiation-induced AML risk modifier loci by association with microsatellite markers. A region on chromosome (chr) 18 with strong association is identified and confirmed by backcross analysis. Additional loci on chrs 8 and 13 show significant association. A key candidate gene Rbbp8 on chr18 is identified. Rbbp8 is shown to be upregulated in response to X-irradiation in the AML sensitive CBA strain but not AML resistant C57BL/6 strain. This study demonstrates the strength of utilizing surrogate endpoints of cancer susceptibility in the mapping of mouse loci and identifies additional loci that may affect radiation cancer risk.

Immigration, species radiation and extinction in a highly diverse songbird lineage: white-eyes on Indian Ocean islands

Molecular phylogenetic hypotheses of species-rich lineages in regions where geological history can be reliably inferred may provide insights into the scale of processes driving diversification. Here we sample all extant or recently extinct white-eye (Zosterops) taxa of the southwest Indian Ocean, combined with samples from all principal continental lineages. Results support a high dispersal capability, with at least two independent continental sources for white-eyes of the region. An early (within 1.8 million years ago) expansion into the Indian Ocean may have originated either from Asia or Africa; the three resulting lineages show a disparate distribution consistent with considerable extinction following their arrival. Africa is supported as the origin of a later expansion into the region (within 1.2 million years ago). On two islands, a pair of Zosterops species derived from independent immigrations into the Indian Ocean co-occur or may have formerly co-occurred, providing strong support for their origin by double-island colonization rather than within-island (sympatric or microallopatric) speciation. On Mauritius and La Reunion, phylogenetic placement of sympatric white-eyes allow us to rule out a scenario in which independent within-island speciation occurred on both islands; one of the species pairs must have arisen by double colonization, while the other pair is likely to have arisen by the same mechanism. Long-distance immigration therefore appears to be responsible for much of the region's white-eye diversity. Independent immigrations into the region have resulted in lineages with mutually exclusive distributions and it seems likely that competition with congeneric species, rather than arrival frequency, may limit present-day diversity.

The glycosylation pattern of baculovirus expressed envelope protein E2 affects its ability to prevent infection with bovine viral diarrhoea virus

We have investigated the role of glycosylation of the envelope glycoprotein E2 of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), produced in insect cells, in BVDV infection. When amino acids predicated to code for the C-terminal N-linked glycosylation site were mutated the resulting protein was less efficient than wild type protein at preventing infection of susceptible cells with BVDV. In addition, mutational analysis showed that a further two predicted N-terminal N-linked glycosylation sites of E2 are required for efficient production of recombinant protein. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence for a reversal with age in the pattern of near-wall blood flow around aortic branches

The changes that occur with age in the distribution of atherosclerotic lesions around arterial branch points challenge accepted theories relating disease to haemodynamic stresses. We investigated whether flow near branch points changes with age in a way that can account for the different lesion distributions. Flow around 20 branches from immature and mature aortas was investigated by examining the length:width ratio and orientation of endothelial nuclei; these properties depend on the magnitude and direction of near-wall flows, respectively. There were significant changes in the pattern of nuclear shape with age, consistent with a reversal in the pattern of shear around branches. In control regions away from branches, there were no such changes. The role of haemodynamic stresses in atherogenesis may require re-evaluation in the light of these results. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.