OntoPedigree:modelling pedigrees for traceability in supply chains

The sharing of product and process information plays a central role in coordinating supply chains operations and is a key driver for their success. "Linked pedigrees" - linked datasets, that encapsulate event based traceability information of artifacts as they move along the supply chain, provide a scalable mechanism to record and facilitate the sharing of track and trace knowledge among supply chain partners. In this paper we present "OntoPedigree" a content ontology design pattern for the representation of linked pedigrees, that can be specialised and extended to define domain specific traceability ontologies. Events captured within the pedigrees are specified using EPCIS - a GS1 standard for the specification of traceability information within and across enterprises, while certification information is described using PROV - a vocabulary for modelling provenance of resources. We exemplify the utility of OntoPedigree in linked pedigrees generated for supply chains within the perishable goods and pharmaceuticals sectors.

Improved data visualisation through multiple dissimilarity modelling

Popular dimension reduction and visualisation algorithms rely on the assumption that input dissimilarities are typically Euclidean, for instance Metric Multidimensional Scaling, t-distributed Stochastic Neighbour Embedding and the Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model. It is well known that this assumption does not hold for most datasets and often high-dimensional data sits upon a manifold of unknown global geometry. We present a method for improving the manifold charting process, coupled with Elastic MDS, such that we no longer assume that the manifold is Euclidean, or of any particular structure. We draw on the benefits of different dissimilarity measures allowing for the relative responsibilities, under a linear combination, to drive the visualisation process.

Analysis of operational risk of banks – catastrophe modelling

Nowadays financial institutions due to regulation and internal motivations care more intensively on their risks. Besides previously dominating market and credit risk new trend is to handle operational risk systematically. Operational risk is the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. First we show the basic features of operational risk and its modelling and regulatory approaches, and after we will analyse operational risk in an own developed simulation model framework. Our approach is based on the analysis of latent risk process instead of manifest risk process, which widely popular in risk literature. In our model the latent risk process is a stochastic risk process, so called Ornstein- Uhlenbeck process, which is a mean reversion process. In the model framework we define catastrophe as breach of a critical barrier by the process. We analyse the distributions of catastrophe frequency, severity and first time to hit, not only for single process, but for dual process as well. Based on our first results we could not falsify the Poisson feature of frequency, and long tail feature of severity. Distribution of “first time to hit” requires more sophisticated analysis. At the end of paper we examine advantages of simulation based forecasting, and finally we concluding with the possible, further research directions to be done in the future.

Adaptációra vállalkozni – avagy vállalkozói szerepek megjelenése a környezet és az alkalmazkodás viszonyában (Attempting to adapt – Entreprenurial roles in the adaptation process to environmental changes)

A szerző cikkében arra a kérdésre keresi a választ, hogy a kis- és középvállalkozások vezetőinek sajátos környezethez fűződő viszonyát alapul véve milyen vállalkozói szerepek azonosíthatóak a környezeti változásokra való reagálás során. A kutatás központi kérdése, hogy a vállalkozó miként tekint magára az adaptációra a turbulensen változó környezeti viszonyok között, és magának milyen szerepet szán az alkalmazkodási folyamat során. A cikk bemutatja a vállalkozó személyiségének alapvető vonásait, külön kitérve a vállalkozó vezető személyére, majd ezt követően az adaptáció legjellemzőbb formáit és tulajdonságait helyezi középpontba. A tanulmány 14 hazai kis- és középvállalkozás vezetőjével készített interjú feldolgozásával, valamint Hortoványi és Szabó (2006a) adaptációs stratégiai típusai alapján három kategóriát azonosít a környezetfelfogás és reagálás kontextusában. ______ This paper focuses on the role of the entrepreneur in the adaptation process, how we can determine the role of the entrepreneur to environmental changes and to strategic adaptation itself. The paper begins with the presentation of the entrepreneurial models, focusing on the entrepreneurial management afterwards continues with a brief summary of the adaptation approach to strategy. Emphasizing that adaptation to changes can vary as innovation or entrepreneurship is concerned. Proactivity presents an adaptation strategy and moreover can be related to entrepreneurial behaviour and therefore characterizes the viewpoint of the entrepreneur. Entrepreneurs have to react to the changing environmental with analysis and proactive reaction, as future and innovation orientation is an integrate part of their entrepreneurial personality. Examining 14 interviews made with Hungarian entrepreneurs the paper identifies three categories which determine the role of the entrepreneurs in the adaptation process.

A villamos erőművek szén-dioxid-kibocsátásának modellezése reálopciók segítségével = Modelling of the carbon dioxide emissions of a power plant, using real options

A szerző egy, a szennyezőanyag-kibocsátás európai kereskedelmi rendszerében megfelelésre kötelezett gázturbinás erőmű szén-dioxid-kibocsátását modellezi négy termékre (völgy- és csúcsidőszaki áramár, gázár, kibocsátási kvóta) vonatkozó reálopciós modell segítségével. A profitmaximalizáló erőmű csak abban az esetben termel és szennyez, ha a megtermelt áramon realizálható fedezete pozitív. A jövőbeli időszak összesített szén-dioxid-kibocsátása megfeleltethető európai típusú bináris különbözetopciók összegének. A modell keretein belül a szén-dioxid-kibocsátás várható értékét és sűrűségfüggvényét becsülhetjük, az utóbbi segítségével a szén-dioxid-kibocsátási pozíció kockáztatott értékét határozhatjuk meg, amely az erőmű számára előírt megfelelési kötelezettség teljesítésének adott konfidenciaszint melletti költségét jelenti. A sztochasztikus modellben az alaptermékek geometriai Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-folyamatot követnek. Ezt illesztette a szerző a német energiatőzsdéről származó publikus piaci adatokra. A szimulációs modellre támaszkodva megvizsgálta, hogy a különböző technológiai és piaci tényezők ceteris paribus megváltozása milyen hatással van a megfelelés költségére, a kockáztatott értékére. ______ The carbon-dioxide emissions of an EU Emissions Trading System participant, gas-fuelled power generator are modelled by using real options for four underlying instruments (peak and off-peak electricity, gas, emission quota). This profit-maximizing power plant operates and emits pollution only if its profit (spread) on energy produced is positive. The future emissions can be estimated by a sum of European binary-spread options. Based on the real-option model, the expected value of emissions and its probability-density function can be deducted. Also calculable is the Value at Risk of emission quota position, which gives the cost of compliance at a given confidence level. To model the prices of the four underlying instruments, the geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is supposed and matched to public available price data from EEX. Based on the simulation model, the effects of various technological and market factors are analysed for the emissions level and the cost of compliance.

The risk of adverse selection and its management in the process of venture capital investment (The experience of Hungarian investors)

Venture capitalists can be regarded as financers of young, high-risk enterprises, seeking investments with a high growth potential and offering professional support above and beyond their capital investment. The aim of this study is to analyse the occurrence of information asymmetry between venture capital investors and entrepreneurs, with special regard to the problem of adverse selection. In the course of my empirical research, I conducted in-depth interviews with 10 venture capital investors. The aim of the research was to elicit their opinions about the situation regarding information asymmetry, how they deal with problems arising from adverse selection, and what measures they take to manage these within the investment process. In the interviews we also touched upon how investors evaluate state intervention, and how much they believe company managers are influenced by state support.

The state of emergency management 2000: The process of emergency management professionalization in the United States and Florida

This dissertation analyzes the current status of emergency management professionalization in the United States and Florida using a qualitative case study. I investigate the efforts of various organizations at the national and state levels in the private and public sectors to organize emergency management as a profession. I conceptualize emergency management professionalization as occurring in two phases: the indirect institutionalization of the occupation of emergency management and the formal advancement toward an emergency management profession. The legislative, organizational, and procedural developments that occurred between approximately 1900 and the late 1970s became the indirect institutionalization of the occupation of emergency management. Over time, as our society developed and became increasingly complex, more disasters affect the security of the population. In order to adapt to increasing risks and vulnerabilities the emergency management system emerged and with it the necessary elements upon which a future profession could be established providing the basis for the formal advancement toward an emergency management profession. ^ During approximately the last twenty years, the formal advancement toward an emergency management profession has encompassed two primary strategies—certification and accreditation—motivated by the objective to organize a profession. Certification applies to individual emergency managers and includes all training and education. Accreditation of state and local emergency management agencies is reached by complying to a minimum level of proficiency with established standards of performance. Certification and accreditation are the mechanisms used to create an emergency management profession and thus act as axes around which the field of emergency management is organizing. ^ The purpose of this research is to provide a frame of reference for whether or not the field of emergency management is a profession. Based on sociology of professions literature, emergency management can be considered to be professionalizing. The current emergency management professionalization efforts may or may not be sufficient to achieve the ultimate goal of becoming a legitimate profession based on legal and public support for the exclusive right to perform emergency management tasks (monopoly) as well as self-regulation of those tasks (autonomy). ^

Process of privatization: Benefits of *reform in management of public housing

The study of the private management of public housing is an important topic to be critically analyzed as the government search for ways to increase efficiency in providing housing for the poor. Public Housing Authorities must address the cost for repairing or replacing the deteriorating housing stock, the increase in the need for affordable housing, and the lack of supply. There is growing pressure on efficient use of public funds that has heightened the need for profound structural reform. An important strategy for carrying out such reform is through privatization. Although privatization does not work in every case, the majority position in the traditional privatization literature is that reliance on private organizations normally, but not always, results in cost savings. ^ The primary purpose of this dissertation is to determine whether a consensus exist among decision-makers on the efficiency of privatizing the management of public housing. A secondary purpose is to review the techniques (best practices) used by the private sector that results in cost-efficiencies in the management of public housing. The study employs the use of a triangulated research design utilizing cross-sectional survey methodology that included use of a survey instrument to solicit responses from the private managers. The study consists of qualitative methods using interviews from key informants of private-sector management firms and public housing agencies, case studies, focus groups, archival records and housing authorities documents. ^ Results indicated that important decision-makers perceive that private managers made a positive contribution to cost-efficiencies in the management of public housing. The performance of private contractors served as a yardstick for comparison of efficiency of services that are produced in-house. The study concluded that private managers made the benefits of their management techniques well known creating a sense of competition between public and private managers. Competition from private contractors spurred municipal worker and management productivity improvements creating better management results for the public housing authorities. The study results are in concert with a review of recent research and studies that also concluded private managers have some distinct advantages to controlling costs in the management of public housing. ^

Organic matter deposition/resuspension in a one-dimensional physical-biogeochemical model. A modelling study

The shallow water configuration of the gulf of Trieste allows the propagation of the stress due to wind and waves along the whole water column down to the bottom. When the stress overcomes a particular threshold it produces resuspension processes of the benthic detritus. The benthic sediments in the North Adriatic are rich of organic matter, transported here by many rivers. This biological active particulate, when remaining in the water, can be transported in all the Adriatic basin by the basin-wide circulation. In this work is presented a first implementation of a resuspension/deposition submodel in the oceanographic coupled physical-biogeochemical 1-dimensional numerical model POM-BFM. At first has been considered the only climatological wind stress forcing, next has been introduced, on the surface, an annual cycle of wave motion and finally have been imposed some exceptional wave event in different periods of the year. The results show a strong relationship between the efficiency of the resuspension process and the stratification of the water column. During summer the strong stratification can contained a great quantity of suspended matter near to the bottom, while during winter even a low concentration of particulate can reach the surface and remains into the water for several months without settling and influencing the biogeochemical system. Looking at the biologic effects, the organic particulate, injected in the water column, allow a sudden growth of the pelagic bacteria which competes with the phytoplankton for nutrients strongly inhibiting its growth. This happen especially during summer when the suspended benthic detritus concentration is greater.

The importance of realistic dispersal models in planning for conservation : application of a novel modelling platform to evaluate management scenarios in an Afrotropical biodiversity hotspot

Funded by European Union's Horizon 2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie. Grant Number: 661211 Research Foundation Flanders (FWO). Grant Numbers: G.0055.08, G.0149.09, G.0308.13 FWO Research Network on Eco-Evolutionary dynamics French Ministère de l'Energie de l'Ecologie du Développement Durable et de la Mer through the EU FP6 BiodivERsA Eranet NERC. Grant Number: NE/J008001/1

State-space modelling of geolocation data reveals sex differences in the use of management areas by breeding northern fulmars

We thank Orkney Islands Council for access to Eynhallow and Talisman Energy (UK) Ltd and Marine Scotland for fieldwork and equipment support. Handling and tagging of fulmars was conducted under licences from the British Trust for Ornithology and the UK Home Office. EE was funded by a Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland/University of Aberdeen College of Life Sciences and Medicine studentship and LQ was supported by a NERC Studentship. Thanks also to the many colleagues who assisted with fieldwork during the project, and to Helen Bailey and Arliss Winship for advice on implementing the state-space model.

A framework for modelling mobile radio access networks for intelligent fault management

Postprint

State-space modelling of geolocation data reveals sex differences in the use of management areas by breeding northern fulmars

We thank Orkney Islands Council for access to Eynhallow and Talisman Energy (UK) Ltd and Marine Scotland for fieldwork and equipment support. Handling and tagging of fulmars was conducted under licences from the British Trust for Ornithology and the UK Home Office. EE was funded by a Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland/University of Aberdeen College of Life Sciences and Medicine studentship and LQ was supported by a NERC Studentship. Thanks also to the many colleagues who assisted with fieldwork during the project, and to Helen Bailey and Arliss Winship for advice on implementing the state-space model.

The use of modelling in purchasing/supply management research

The purpose of this research to explore the use of modelling in the field of Purchasing and Supply Management (P/SM). We are particularly interested in identifying the specific areas of P/SM where there are opportunities for the use of modelling based methods. The paper starts with an overview of main types of modelling and also provides a categorisation of the main P/SM research themes. Our research shows that there are many opportunities for using descriptive, predictive and prescriptive modelling approaches in all areas of P/SM research from the ones with a focus on the actual function from a purely operational and execution perspective (e.g. purchasing processes and behaviour) to the ones with a focus on the organisational level from a more strategic perspective (e.g. strategy and policy). We conclude that future P/SM research needs to explore the value of modelling not just at the functional or operational level, but also at the organisation and strategic level respectively. We also acknowledge that while using empirical results to inform and improve models has advantages, there are also drawbacks, which relate to the value, the practical relevance and the generalisability of the modelling based approaches.

Design of experiments to study the impact of process parameters on droplet size and development of non-invasive imaging techniques in tablet coating

Atomisation of an aqueous solution for tablet film coating is a complex process with multiple factors determining droplet formation and properties. The importance of droplet size for an efficient process and a high quality final product has been noted in the literature, with smaller droplets reported to produce smoother, more homogenous coatings whilst simultaneously avoiding the risk of damage through over-wetting of the tablet core. In this work the effect of droplet size on tablet film coat characteristics was investigated using X-ray microcomputed tomography (XμCT) and confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM). A quality by design approach utilising design of experiments (DOE) was used to optimise the conditions necessary for production of droplets at a small (20 μm) and large (70 μm) droplet size. Droplet size distribution was measured using real-time laser diffraction and the volume median diameter taken as a response. DOE yielded information on the relationship three critical process parameters: pump rate, atomisation pressure and coating-polymer concentration, had upon droplet size. The model generated was robust, scoring highly for model fit (R2 = 0.977), predictability (Q2 = 0.837), validity and reproducibility. Modelling confirmed that all parameters had either a linear or quadratic effect on droplet size and revealed an interaction between pump rate and atomisation pressure. Fluidised bed coating of tablet cores was performed with either small or large droplets followed by CLSM and XμCT imaging. Addition of commonly used contrast materials to the coating solution improved visualisation of the coating by XμCT, showing the coat as a discrete section of the overall tablet. Imaging provided qualitative and quantitative evidence revealing that smaller droplets formed thinner, more uniform and less porous film coats.