Developing a probabilistic graphical structure from a model of mental-health clinical risk expertise

This paper explores the process of developing a principled approach for translating a model of mental-health risk expertise into a probabilistic graphical structure. The Galatean Risk Screening Tool [1] is a psychological model for mental health risk assessment based on fuzzy sets. This paper details how the knowledge encapsulated in the psychological model was used to develop the structure of the probability graph by exploiting the semantics of the clinical expertise. These semantics are formalised by a detailed specification for an XML structure used to represent the expertise. The component parts were then mapped to equivalent probabilistic graphical structures such as Bayesian Belief Nets and Markov Random Fields to produce a composite chain graph that provides a probabilistic classification of risk expertise to complement the expert clinical judgements. © Springer-Verlag 2010.

Legitimacy building strategies in conditions of discretionary legal enforcement:a logic of social action approach

The present study explores strategies used to legitimize the transfer of organizational practices in a situation of institutional upheaval. We apply the logic of social action (Risse, 2000) to analyze the effectiveness of consequence-based action and communication-based action, in terms of higher coordination, lower conflict, and overall higher economic performance. Consequence-based legitimation is obtained by using a system of distributor incentives tied to performance of specific tasks, while communicative legitimation can be achieved by recommendations and warnings. Our setting is an export channel to European emerging economies. Our results indicate that in the absence of legitimacy, as manifested in discretionary legal enforcement, consequence-based legitimation is more effective than communicative legitimation in reducing conflict, increasing coordination, and ultimately in improving the performance of the export dyad. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

Is the French model giving way to a new 'Logic of Appropriateness'? Lessons from urban waste management

Processes of European integration and growing consumer scrutiny of public services have served to place the spotlight on the traditional French model of public/private interaction in the urban services domain. This article discusses recent debates within France of the institutionalised approach to local public/private partnership, and presents case study evidence from three urban agglomerations of a possible divergence from this approach. Drawing on the work of French academic, Dominique Lorrain, whose historical institutionalist accounts of the French model are perhaps the most comprehensive and best known, the article develops two hypotheses of institutional change, one from the historical institutionalist perspective of institutional stability and persistence, and the other from an explicitly sociological perspective, which emphasises the legitimating benefits of following appropriate rules of conduct. It argues that further studying the French model as an institution offers valuable empirical insight into processes of institutional change and persistence. © 2004 Taylor & Francis Ltd.

Probabilistic synchronisation of pinning control

This paper is concerned with synchronization of complex stochastic dynamical networks in the presence of noise and functional uncertainty. A probabilistic control method for adaptive synchronization is presented. All required probabilistic models of the network are assumed to be unknown therefore estimated to be dependent on the connectivity strength, the state and control values. Robustness of the probabilistic controller is proved via the Liapunov method. Furthermore, based on the residual error of the network states we introduce the definition of stochastic pinning controllability. A coupled map lattice with spatiotemporal chaos is taken as an example to illustrate all theoretical developments. The theoretical derivation is complemented by its validation on two representative examples.

Fully probabilistic control for stochastic nonlinear control systems with input dependent noise

Robust controllers for nonlinear stochastic systems with functional uncertainties can be consistently designed using probabilistic control methods. In this paper a generalised probabilistic controller design for the minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the actual joint probability density function (pdf) of the closed loop control system, and an ideal joint pdf is presented emphasising how the uncertainty can be systematically incorporated in the absence of reliable systems models. To achieve this objective all probabilistic models of the system are estimated from process data using mixture density networks (MDNs) where all the parameters of the estimated pdfs are taken to be state and control input dependent. Based on this dependency of the density parameters on the input values, explicit formulations to the construction of optimal generalised probabilistic controllers are obtained through the techniques of dynamic programming and adaptive critic methods. Using the proposed generalised probabilistic controller, the conditional joint pdfs can be made to follow the ideal ones. A simulation example is used to demonstrate the implementation of the algorithm and encouraging results are obtained.

Probabilistic control for uncertain systems

In this paper a new framework has been applied to the design of controllers which encompasses nonlinearity, hysteresis and arbitrary density functions of forward models and inverse controllers. Using mixture density networks, the probabilistic models of both the forward and inverse dynamics are estimated such that they are dependent on the state and the control input. The optimal control strategy is then derived which minimizes uncertainty of the closed loop system. In the absence of reliable plant models, the proposed control algorithm incorporates uncertainties in model parameters, observations, and latent processes. The local stability of the closed loop system has been established. The efficacy of the control algorithm is demonstrated on two nonlinear stochastic control examples with additive and multiplicative noise.

A probabilistic indirect adaptive control for systems with input-dependent noise

A probabilistic indirect adaptive controller is proposed for the general nonlinear multivariate class of discrete time system. The proposed probabilistic framework incorporates input–dependent noise prediction parameters in the derivation of the optimal control law. Moreover, because noise can be nonstationary in practice, the proposed adaptive control algorithm provides an elegant method for estimating and tracking the noise. For illustration purposes, the developed method is applied to the affine class of nonlinear multivariate discrete time systems and the desired result is obtained: the optimal control law is determined by solving a cubic equation and the distribution of the tracking error is shown to be Gaussian with zero mean. The efficiency of the proposed scheme is demonstrated numerically through the simulation of an affine nonlinear system.

Fully probabilistic control design in an adaptive critic framework

Optimal stochastic controller pushes the closed-loop behavior as close as possible to the desired one. The fully probabilistic design (FPD) uses probabilistic description of the desired closed loop and minimizes Kullback-Leibler divergence of the closed-loop description to the desired one. Practical exploitation of the fully probabilistic design control theory continues to be hindered by the computational complexities involved in numerically solving the associated stochastic dynamic programming problem. In particular very hard multivariate integration and an approximate interpolation of the involved multivariate functions. This paper proposes a new fully probabilistic contro algorithm that uses the adaptive critic methods to circumvent the need for explicitly evaluating the optimal value function, thereby dramatically reducing computational requirements. This is a main contribution of this short paper.

Detection of Logical-and-Probabilistic Correlation in Time Series

An application of the heterogeneous variables system prediction method to solving the time series analysis problem with respect to the sample size is considered in this work. It is created a logical-and-probabilistic correlation from the logical decision function class. Two ways is considered. When the information about event is kept safe in the process, and when it is kept safe in depending process.

Species differential regulation of COX2 can be described by an NFκB-dependent logic AND gate

Cyclooxygenase 2 (COX2), a key regulatory enzyme of the prostaglandin/eicosanoid pathway, is an important target for anti-inflammatory therapy. It is highly induced by pro-inflammatory cytokines in a Nuclear factor kappa B (NFκB)-dependent manner. However, the mechanisms determining the amplitude and dynamics of this important pro-inflammatory event are poorly understood. Furthermore, there is significant difference between human and mouse COX2 expression in response to the inflammatory stimulus tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα). Here, we report the presence of a molecular logic AND gate composed of two NFκB response elements (NREs) which controls the expression of human COX2 in a switch-like manner. Combining quantitative kinetic modeling and thermostatistical analysis followed by experimental validation in iterative cycles, we show that the human COX2 expression machinery regulated by NFκB displays features of a logic AND gate. We propose that this provides a digital, noise-filtering mechanism for a tighter control of expression in response to TNFα, such that a threshold level of NFκB activation is required before the promoter becomes active and initiates transcription. This NFκB-regulated AND gate is absent in the mouse COX2 promoter, most likely contributing to its differential graded response in promoter activity and protein expression to TNFα. Our data suggest that the NFκB-regulated AND gate acts as a novel mechanism for controlling the expression of human COX2 to TNFα, and its absence in the mouse COX2 provides the foundation for further studies on understanding species-specific differential gene regulation.

Logic Based Pattern Recognition - Ontology Content (1)

* The research is supported partly by INTAS: 04-77-7173 project, http://www.intas.be

Contradiction versus Selfcontradiction in Fuzzy Logic

* This work is partially supported by CICYT (Spain) under project TIN 2005-08943-C02-001 and by UPM-CAM (Spain) under project R05/11240.

A Mathematical Apparatus for Domain Ontology Simulation. An Extendable Language of Applied Logic

* This paper was made according to the program of fundamental scientific research of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences «Mathematical simulation and intellectual systems», the project "Theoretical foundation of the intellectual systems based on ontologies for intellectual support of scientific researches".

A Mathematical Apparatus for Ontology Simulation. Specialized Extensions of the Extendable Language of Applied Logic

* This paper was made according to the program of fundamental scientific research of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences «Mathematical simulation and intellectual systems», the project "Theoretical foundation of the intellectual systems based on ontologies for intellectual support of scientific researches".

Representing "Recursive" Default Logic in Modal Logic

The "recursive" definition of Default Logic is shown to be representable in a monotonic Modal Quantificational Logic whose modal laws are stronger than S5. Specifically, it is proven that a set of sentences of First Order Logic is a fixed-point of the "recursive" fixed-point equation of Default Logic with an initial set of axioms and defaults if and only if the meaning of the fixed-point is logically equivalent to a particular modal functor of the meanings of that initial set of sentences and of the sentences in those defaults. This is important because the modal representation allows the use of powerful automatic deduction systems for Modal Logic and because unlike the original "recursive" definition of Default Logic, it is easily generalized to the case where quantified variables may be shared across the scope of the components of the defaults.