994 resultados para Preference modelling


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Similarities between the anatomies of living organisms are often used to draw conclusions regarding the ecology and behaviour of extinct animals. Several pterosaur taxa are postulated to have been skim-feeders based largely on supposed convergences of their jaw anatomy with that of the modern skimming bird, Rynchops spp. Using physical and mathematical models of Rynchops bills and pterosaur jaws, we show that skimming is considerably more energetically costly than previously thought for Rynchops and that pterosaurs weighing more than one kilogram would not have been able to skim at all. Furthermore, anatomical comparisons between the highly specialised skull of Rynchops and those of postulated skimming pterosaurs suggest that even smaller forms were poorly adapted for skim-feeding. Our results refute the hypothesis that some pterosaurs commonly used skimming as a foraging method and illustrate the pitfalls involved in extrapolating from limited morphological convergence.

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Networks are ubiquitous in natural, technological and social systems. They are of increasing relevance for improved understanding and control of infectious diseases of plants, animals and humans, given the interconnectedness of today's world. Recent modelling work on disease development in complex networks shows: the relative rapidity of pathogen spread in scale-free compared with random networks, unless there is high local clustering; the theoretical absence of an epidemic threshold in scale-free networks of infinite size, which implies that diseases with low infection rates can spread in them, but the emergence of a threshold when realistic features are added to networks (e.g. finite size, household structure or deactivation of links); and the influence on epidemic dynamics of asymmetrical interactions. Models suggest that control of pathogens spreading in scale-free networks should focus on highly connected individuals rather than on mass random immunization. A growing number of empirical applications of network theory in human medicine and animal disease ecology confirm the potential of the approach, and suggest that network thinking could also benefit plant epidemiology and forest pathology, particularly in human-modified pathosystems linked by commercial transport of plant and disease propagules. Potential consequences for the study and management of plant and tree diseases are discussed.

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Background: The impact of global climate change on plant distribution, speciation and extinction is of current concern. Examining species climatic preferences via bioclimatic niche modelling is a key tool to study this impact. There is an established link between bioclimatic niche models and phylogenetic diversification. A next step is to examine future distribution predictions from a phylogenetic perspective. We present such a study using Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group which demonstrates morphological and phenological adaptations to its seasonal Mediterranean-type climate. How will the predicted climate change affect future distribution of this popular genus of garden plants? Results: We demonstrate phylogenetic structure for some climatic characteristics, and show that most Cyclamen have distinct climatic niches, with the exception of several wide-ranging, geographically expansive, species. We reconstruct climate preferences for hypothetical ancestral Cyclamen. The ancestral Cyclamen lineage has a preference for the seasonal Mediterranean climate characteristic of dry summers and wet winters. Future bioclimatic niches, based on BIOCLIM and Maxent models, are examined with reference to a future climate scenario for the 2050s. Over the next 50 years we predict a northward shift in the area of climatic suitability, with many areas of current distribution becoming climatically unsuitable. The area of climatic suitability for every Cyclamen species is predicted to decrease. For many species, there may be no areas with a suitable climate regardless of dispersal ability, these species are considered to be at high risk of extinction. This risk is examined from a phylogenetic perspective. Conclusion: Examining bioclimatic niches from a phylogenetic perspective permits novel interpretations of these models. In particular, reconstruction of ancestral niches can provide testable hypothesis about the historical development of lineages. In the future we can expect a northwards shift in climatic suitability for the genus Cyclamen. If this proves to be the case then dispersal is the best chance of survival, which seems highly unlikely for ant-dispersed Cyclamen. Human-assisted establishment of Cyclamen species well outside their native ranges offers hope and could provide the only means of dispersal to potentially suitable future environments. Even without human intervention the phylogenetic perspective demonstrates that major lineages could survive climate change even if many species are lost.

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1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

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A RAPD-PCR assay was developed and used to test For competitive variability in growth of the nematode biological control fungus Pochonia chlamydosporia. Saprophytic competence in soil with or without tomato plants was examined in three isolates of the fungus: RES 280 (J), originally isolated from potato cyst nematode (PCN) cysts; RES 200 (1) and RES 279 (S), both originally isolated from root knot nematode (RKN) eggs. Viable counts taken at 70 d indicated that I was the best saprophyte followed by S, with J the poorest. RAPD-PCR analysis of colonies from mixed treatments revealed that there was a cumulative effect of adding isolates to the system. This Suggested that the isolates did not interact and that they may occupy separate niches in soil and the rhizosphere. To investigate parasitic ability, soils were seeded with two isolates of the fungus: J and S, singly or in combination. Tomato or potato plants were grown in these soils; free of nematodes, or inoculated with PCN or RKN, and incubated for 77 d. The abundance of the PCN isolate J in PCN cysts was significantly greater than that of the RKN isolate S but in RKN egg masses, S was significantly more abundant than J. RAPD-PCR analysis of colonies from mixed treatments confirmed that J was more abundant than S ill PCN cysts whereas the converse was observed on RKN egg masses. This substantiates the phenomenon of nematode host preference at the infraspecific level of P. chlamydosporia and highlights its relevance for biological control of plant parasitic nematodes.

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We have studied growth and estimated recruitment of massive coral colonies at three sites, Kaledupa, Hoga and Sampela, separated by about 1.5 km in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. There was significantly higher species richness (P<0.05), coral cover (P<0.05) and rugosity (P<0.01) at Kaledupa than at Sampela. A model for coral reef growth has been developed based on a rational polynomial function, where dx/dt is an index of coral growth with time; W is the variable (for example, coral weight, coral length or coral area), up to the power of n in the numerator and m in the denominator; a1……an and b1…bm are constants. The values for n and m represent the degree of the polynomial, and can relate to the morphology of the coral. The model was used to simulate typical coral growth curves, and tested using published data obtained by weighing coral colonies underwater in reefs on the south-west coast of Curaçao [‘Neth. J. Sea Res. 10 (1976) 285’]. The model proved an accurate fit to the data, and parameters were obtained for a number of coral species. Surface area data was obtained on over 1200 massive corals at three different sites in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. The year of an individual's recruitment was calculated from knowledge of the growth rate modified by application of the rational polynomial model. The estimated pattern of recruitment was variable, with little numbers of massive corals settling and growing before 1950 at the heavily used site, Sampela, relative to the reef site with little or no human use, Kaledupa, and the intermediate site, Hoga. There was a significantly greater sedimentation rate at Sampela than at either Kaledupa (P<0.0001) or Hoga (P<0.0005). The relative mean abundance of fish families present at the reef crests at the three sites, determined using digital video photography, did not correlate with sedimentation rates, underwater visibility or lack of large non-branching coral colonies. Radial growth rates of three genera of non-branching corals were significantly lower at Sampela than at Kaledupa or at Hoga, and there was a high correlation (r=0.89) between radial growth rates and underwater visibility. Porites spp. was the most abundant coral over all the sites and at all depths followed by Favites (P<0.04) and Favia spp. (P<0.03). Colony ages of Porites corals were significantly lower at the 5 m reef flat on the Sampela reef than at the same depth on both other reefs (P<0.005). At Sampela, only 2.8% of corals on the 5 m reef crest are of a size to have survived from before 1950. The Scleractinian coral community of Sampela is severely impacted by depositing sediments which can lead to the suffocation of corals, whilst also decreasing light penetration resulting in decreased growth and calcification rates. The net loss of material from Sampela, if not checked, could result in the loss of this protective barrier which would be to the detriment of the sublittoral sand flats and hence the Sampela village.

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An alternative synthetic approach to yield the compound 2,3,5,6,8,9,11,14-octahydrobenzo[1][ 1,4,7,10]tetraazacyclotetradecine (bz[14]N-4) is presented. The protonation constants of bz[14]N-4 and the stability constants of its complexes with Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+, Cd2+, Pb2+ were determined in H2O at 25degreesC with ionic strength 0.10 mol dm(-3) in KNO3 and they were compared with structurally related macrocycles cyclam (1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane) and cyclen (1,4,7,10-tetraazacyclododecane). These studies indicate that only 1 : 1 ( M : L) species are formed in solution, and the ligand exhibits a high affinity for larger ions such as Cd2+ and Pb2+. The X-ray study of [bz[14]N4H3](3+) shows that an inclusion compound with a chloride counter-anion is formed through NH...Cl hydrogen bonds. Spectroscopic data in solution ( electronic and NMR spectra) showed that the macrocycle adopts a planar arrangement upon metal complexation. Molecular mechanics calculations reveal that in spite of the presence of the benzene ring in the macrocyclic framework this ligand can encapsulate metal ions with different stereo-electronic sizes in square planar arrangements. Our results indicate that the presence of the benzene ring in the backbone of the bz[14]N-4 confers a coordination behaviour intermediate between that of cyclam and cyclen.

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Time resolved studies of silylene, SiH2, generated by the 193 nm laser. ash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate coefficients for its bimolecular reactions with methyl-, dimethyl- and trimethyl-silanes in the gas phase. The reactions were studied over the pressure range 3 - 100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 300 - 625 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found for SiH2 + MeSiH3 ( 485 and 602 K) and for SiH2 + Me2SiH2 ( 600 K). The high pressure rate constants gave the following Arrhenius parameters: [GRAPHICS] These are consistent with fast, near to collision-controlled, association processes. RRKM modelling calculations are consistent with the observed pressure dependences ( and also the lack of them for SiH2 + Me3SiH). Ab initio calculations at both second order perturbation theory (MP2) and coupled cluster (CCSD(T)) levels, showed the presence of weakly-bound complexes along the reaction pathways. In the case of SiH2 + MeSiH3 two complexes, with different geometries, were obtained consistent with earlier studies of SiH2 + SiH4. These complexes were stabilised by methyl substitution in the substrate silane, but all had exceedingly low barriers to rearrangement to product disilanes. Although methyl groups in the substrate silane enhance the intrinsic SiH2 insertion rates, it is doubtful whether the intermediate complexes have a significant effect on the kinetics. A further calculation on the reaction MeSiH + SiH4 shows that the methyl substitution in the silylene should have a much more significant kinetic effect ( as observed in other studies).

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Analysis of X-ray powder data for the melt-crystallisable aromatic poly(thioether thioether ketone) [-S-Ar-S-Ar-CO-Ar](n), ('PTTK', Ar= 1,4-phenylene), reveals that it adopts a crystal structure very different from that established for its ether-analogue PEEK. Molecular modelling and diffraction-simulation studies of PTTK show that the structure of this polymer is analogous to that of melt-crystallised poly(thioetherketone) [-SAr-CO-Ar](n) in which the carbonyl linkages in symmetry-related chains are aligned anti-parallel to one another. and that these bridging units are crystallographically interchangeable. The final model for the crystal structure of PTTK is thus disordered, in the monoclinic space group 121a (two chains per unit cell), with cell dimensions a = 7.83, b = 6.06, c = 10.35 angstrom, beta = 93.47 degrees. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Two 28-membered octaazamacrocycles, [28]py(2)N(6) and Me-2[28]py(2)N(6), have been synthesized. The protonation constants of the N-methyl. derivative and the stability constants of its complexes with Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+, Cd2+, and Pb2+ were determined at 25degreesC in 0.10 mol dm(-3) KNO3. The high overall basicity of Me-2[28]py(2)N(6) is ascribed to the weaker repulsion between protonated contiguous charged ammonium sites separated by propyl chains. These studies together with NMR, UV-vis and EPR spectroscopies indicated the presence of mono- and di-nuclear species, The single crystal structure of the complex [Ni-2([28]py(2)N(6))(H2O)(4)]Cl-4.3H(2)O was determined, and showed each nickel centre in a distorted octahedral co-ordination environment. The nickel centres are held within the macrocycle at a large distance of 6.991(g) Angstrom from each other. The formation of mononuclear complexes was evaluated theoretically via molecular mechanics (MM) and molecular dynamics (MD) calculations and showed that these large macrocycles have sufficient flexibility to encapsulate metal ions with different stereo-electronic sizes. Structures for small and large metal ions are proposed.

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Molecular modelling studies have been carried out on two bis(calix[4]diqu(inone) ionophores, each created from two (calix[4]diquinone)arenes bridged at their bottom rims via alkyl chains (CH2)(n), 1: n = 3, 2; n = 4, in order to understand the reported selectivity of these ligands towards different sized metal ions such as Na+, K+, Rb+, and Cs+ in dmso solution. Conformational. analyses have been carried out which show that in the lowest energy conformations of the two macrocycles, the individual calix[4]diquinones exhibit a combination of partial cone, 1,3-alternate and cone conformations. The interactions of these alkali metals with the macrocycles have been studied in the gas phase and in a periodic box of solvent dmso by molecular mechanics and molecular dynamics calculations. Molecular mechanics calculations have been carried out on the mode of entry of the ions into the macrocycles and suggest that this is likely to occur from the side of the central cavity, rather than through the main axis of the calix[4]diquinones. There are energy barriers of ca. 19 kcal mol(-1) for this entry path in the gas phase, but in solution no energy barrier is found. Molecular dynamics simulations show that in both 1 and 2, though particularly in the latter macrocycle, one or two solvent molecules are bonded to the metal throughout the course of the simulation, often to the exclusion, of one or more of the ether oxygen atoms. By contrast the carbonyl oxygen atoms remain bonded to the metal atoms throughout with bond lengths that remain significantly less than those to the ether oxygen atoms. Free energy perturbation studies have been carried out in dmso and indicate that for 1, the selectivity follows the order Rb+ approximate to K+ > Cs+ >> Na+, which is partially in agreement with the experimental results. The energy differences are small and indeed the ratio between stability constants found for Cs+ and K+ complexes is only 0.60, showing that 1 has only a slight preference for K+. For the larger receptor 2, which is better suited to metal complexation, the binding affinity follows the pattern Cs+ >> Rb+ >> K+ >> Na+, with energy differences of 5.75, 2.61, 2.78 kcal mol(-1) which is perfectly consistent with experimental results.

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Novel 'tweezer-type' complexes that exploit the interactions between pi-electron-rich pyrenyl groups and pi-electron deficient diimide units have been designed and synthesised. The component molecules leading to complex formation were accessed readily from commercially available starting materials through short and efficient syntheses. Analysis of the resulting complexes, using the visible charge-transfer band, revealed association constants that increased sequentially from 130 to 11,000 M-1 as increasing numbers of pi-pi-stacking interactions were introduced into the systems. Computational modelling was used to analyse the structures of these complexes, revealing low-energy chain-folded conformations for both components, which readily allow close, multiple pi-pi-stacking and hydrogen bonding to be achieved. In this paper, we give details of our initial studies of these complexes and outline how their behaviour could provide a basis for designing self-healing polymer blends for use in adaptive coating systems. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper reviews four approaches used to create rational tools to aid the planning and the management of the building design process and then proposes a fifth approach. The new approach that has been developed is based on the mechanical aspects of technology rather than subjective design issues. The knowledge base contains, for each construction technology, a generic model of the detailed design process. Each activity in the process is specified by its input and output information needs. By connecting the input demands of one technology with the output supply from another technology a map or network of design activity is formed. Thus, it is possible to structure a specific model from the generic knowledge base within a KBE system.

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The assumption that negligible work is involved in the formation of new surfaces in the machining of ductile metals, is re-examined in the light of both current Finite Element Method (FEM) simulations of cutting and modern ductile fracture mechanics. The work associated with separation criteria in FEM models is shown to be in the kJ/m2 range rather than the few J/m2 of the surface energy (surface tension) employed by Shaw in his pioneering study of 1954 following which consideration of surface work has been omitted from analyses of metal cutting. The much greater values of surface specific work are not surprising in terms of ductile fracture mechanics where kJ/m2 values of fracture toughness are typical of the ductile metals involved in machining studies. This paper shows that when even the simple Ernst–Merchant analysis is generalised to include significant surface work, many of the experimental observations for which traditional ‘plasticity and friction only’ analyses seem to have no quantitative explanation, are now given meaning. In particular, the primary shear plane angle φ becomes material-dependent. The experimental increase of φ up to a saturated level, as the uncut chip thickness is increased, is predicted. The positive intercepts found in plots of cutting force vs. depth of cut, and in plots of force resolved along the primary shear plane vs. area of shear plane, are shown to be measures of the specific surface work. It is demonstrated that neglect of these intercepts in cutting analyses is the reason why anomalously high values of shear yield stress are derived at those very small uncut chip thicknesses at which the so-called size effect becomes evident. The material toughness/strength ratio, combined with the depth of cut to form a non-dimensional parameter, is shown to control ductile cutting mechanics. The toughness/strength ratio of a given material will change with rate, temperature, and thermomechanical treatment and the influence of such changes, together with changes in depth of cut, on the character of machining is discussed. Strength or hardness alone is insufficient to describe machining. The failure of the Ernst–Merchant theory seems less to do with problems of uniqueness and the validity of minimum work, and more to do with the problem not being properly posed. The new analysis compares favourably and consistently with the wide body of experimental results available in the literature. Why considerable progress in the understanding of metal cutting has been achieved without reference to significant surface work is also discussed.