Development of a generic crop model template in the cropping system model APSIM

The Agricultural Production Systems slMulator, APSIM, is a cropping system modelling environment that simulates the dynamics of soil-plant-management interactions within a single crop or a cropping system. Adaptation of previously developed crop models has resulted in multiple crop modules in APSIM, which have low scientific transparency and code efficiency. A generic crop model template (GCROP) has been developed to capture unifying physiological principles across crops (plant types) and to provide modular and efficient code for crop modelling. It comprises a standard crop interface to the APSIM engine, a generic crop model structure, a crop process library, and well-structured crop parameter files. The process library contains the major science underpinning the crop models and incorporates generic routines based on physiological principles for growth and development processes that are common across crops. It allows APSIM to simulate different crops using the same set of computer code. The generic model structure and parameter files provide an easy way to test, modify, exchange and compare modelling approaches at process level without necessitating changes in the code. The standard interface generalises the model inputs and outputs, and utilises a standard protocol to communicate with other APSIM modules through the APSIM engine. The crop template serves as a convenient means to test new insights and compare approaches to component modelling, while maintaining a focus on predictive capability. This paper describes and discusses the scientific basis, the design, implementation and future development of the crop template in APSIM. On this basis, we argue that the combination of good software engineering with sound crop science can enhance the rate of advance in crop modelling. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Polyethylene flow prediction with a differential multi-mode Pom-Pom model

We report the first steps of a collaborative project between the University of Queensland, Polyflow, Michelin, SK Chemicals, and RMIT University; on simulation, validation and application of a recently introduced constitutive model designed to describe branched polymers. Whereas much progress has been made on predicting the complex flow behaviour of many - in particular linear - polymers, it sometimes appears difficult to predict simultaneously shear thinning and extensional strain hardening behaviour using traditional constitutive models. Recently a new viscoelastic model based on molecular topology, was proposed by McLeish and Larson (1998). We explore the predictive power of a differential multi-mode version of the pom-pom model for the flow behaviour of two commercial polymer melts: a (long-chain branched) low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and a (linear) high-density polyethylene (HDPE). The model responses are compared to elongational recovery experiments published by Langouche and Debbaut (1999), and start-up of simple shear flow, stress relaxation after simple and reverse step strain experiments carried out in our laboratory.

Consensus neuropathological diagnosis of common dementia syndromes: testing and standardising the use of multiple diagnostic criteria

The aim of this study was to assess the variation between neuropathologists in the diagnosis of common dementia syndromes when multiple published protocols are applied. Fourteen out of 18 Australian neuropathologists participated in diagnosing 20 cases (16 cases of dementia, 4 age-matched controls) using consensus diagnostic methods. Diagnostic criteria, clinical synopses and slides from multiple brain regions were sent to participants who were asked for case diagnoses. Diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, accuracy and variability were determined using percentage agreement and kappa statistics. Using CERAD criteria, there was a high inter-rater agreement for cases with probable and definite Alzheimer's disease but low agreement for cases with possible Alzheimer's disease. Braak staging and the application of criteria for dementia with Lewy bodies also resulted in high inter-rater agreement. There was poor agreement for the diagnosis of frontotemporal dementia and for identifying small vessel disease. Participants rarely diagnosed more than one disease in any case. To improve efficiency when applying multiple diagnostic criteria, several simplifications were proposed and tested on 5 of the original 210 cases. Inter-rater reliability for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies significantly improved. Further development of simple and accurate methods to identify small vessel lesions and diagnose frontotemporal dementia is warranted.

Characterization of micro-mesoporous carbonaceous materials. Calculations of adsorption isotherm of hydrocarbons

In this paper we apply a method recently developed by Do and co-workers(1) for the prediction of adsorption isotherms of pure vapors on carbonaceous materials. The information required for the prediction is the pore size distribution and the BET constant, C, of a corresponding nonporous surface (graphite). The dispersive adsorption force is assumed to be the dominant force in adsorption mechanism. This applies to nonpolar and weakly polar hydrocarbons. We test this predictive model against the adsorption data of benzene, toluene, n-pentane, n-hexane, and ethanol on a commercial activated carbon. It is found that the predictions are excellent for all adsorbates tested with the exception of ethanol where the predicted values are about 10% less than the experimental data, and this is probably attributed to the electrostatic interaction between ethanol molecules and the functional groups on the carbon surfaces.

Post-discharge surveillance: can patients reliably diagnose surgical wound infections?

Post-discharge surgical wound infection surveillance is an important part of many infection control programs. It is frequently undertaken by patient self-assessment, prompted either by a telephone or postal questionnaire. To assess the reliability of this method, 290 patients were followed for six weeks post-operatively. Their wounds were photographed and also covertly assessed for signs of infection by two experienced infection control nurses (ICNs). Patients also responded to a postal questionnaire seeking evidence of infection at both week four and week six post-surgery. Correlation between the patient's assessment of their wound and the ICNs diagnosis was poor (r = 0. 37) with a low positive predictive value (28.7%), although negative predictive value was high (98.2%). Assessment of photos for signs of infection by two experienced clinicians also correlated poorly with the ICNs diagnosis of infection (r = 0.54). The patient's recall of prescription of an antibiotic by their general practitioner (GP) for wound infection during the postoperative period correlated best with the ICNs diagnosis (r = 0.76). This latter measure, particularly when confirmed by the GP in those patients reporting an infection, appears to provide the most valid and resource efficient marker of post-discharge surgical wound infection.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Ex vivo profiling of CD8(+)-T-cell responses to human cytomegalovirus reveals broad and multispecific reactivities in healthy virus carriers

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) can establish both nonproductive (latent) and productive (lytic) infections. Many of the proteins expressed during these phases of infection could be expected to be targets of the immune response; however, much of our understanding of the CD8(+)-T-cell response to HCMV is mainly based on the pp65 antigen. Very little is known about T-cell control over other antigens expressed during the different stages of virus infection; this imbalance in our understanding undermines the importance of these antigens in several aspects of HCMV disease pathogenesis. In the present study, an efficient and rapid strategy based on predictive bioinformatics and ex vivo functional T-cell assays was adopted to profile CD8(+)-T-cell responses to a large panel of HCMV antigens expressed during different phases of replication. These studies revealed that CD8(+)-T-cell responses to HCMV often contained multiple antigen-specific reactivities, which were not just constrained to the previously identified pp65 or IE-1 antigens. Unexpectedly, a number of viral proteins including structural, early/late antigens and HCMV-encoded immunomodulators (pp28, pp50, gH, gB, US2, US3, US6, and UL18) were also identified as potential targets for HCMV-specific CD8(+)-T-cell immunity. Based on this extensive analysis, numerous novel HCMV peptide epitopes and their HLA-restricting determinants recognized by these T cells have been defined. These observations contrast with previous findings that viral interference with the antigen-processing pathway during lytic infection would render immediate-early and early/late proteins less immunogenic. This work strongly suggests that successful HCMV-specific immune control in healthy virus carriers is dependent on a strong T-cell response towards a broad repertoire of antigens.

Measured and predicted total body water in children with myelomeningocele

Objective: Children with myelomeningocele (MMC) have an altered body composition and an atypical distribution of total body water (TBW). The aim of the present study was to determine the accuracy of current predictive equations, based on bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA), in determining TBW when compared with measured TBW using deuterium dilution. Methods: Fourteen children with MMC were measured for whole body BIA and TBW (using deuterium dilution and the Plateau method). Total body water was predicted using equations based on the resistance and characteristic frequency from BIA measurements and heights of subjects. Results: The mean measured TBW was 15.46 +/- 8.28 L and the mean predictions for TBW using equations based on the resistance and characteristic frequency from BIA measurements and heights of subjects were 18.29 +/- 8.41 L, 17.72 +/- 11.42 L and 12.51 +/- 7.59 L, respectively. The best correlation was found using characteristic frequency. The limits of agreement between measured and predicted TBW values using Bland-Altman analysis were large. Conclusions: The present study suggests that the prediction of TBW in children with MMC can be made accurately using the equation of Cornish et al . based on BIA measurements of characteristic frequency.

Gender differences in CF phenotype associated with low bone mineral density

Adolescents and adults with CF have lower bone mineral density (BMD) than normal, but its relationship with phenotype is not well understood. Point FEV1% predicted (FEV) and rate of change of FEV are biased estimates of disease severity, because progressively older subjects represent a selected survivor population, with females at greater risk of death than males. To investigate the relationship between BMD and phenotype we used an index (predicted age at death) derived from Bayesian estimates of slope and intercept of FEV, age at last measurement and survival status. Predictive equations for the index were derived from 97 subjects (78 survivors) from the RCH CF clinic, and applied to a group of 102 comparable subjects who had BMD measured, classified as having‘mild’ ()75th), ‘moderate’ (25– 75th), or ‘severe’ (-25th centile) phenotype. Total body (TB) and lumbar spine (LS) BMD z-scores (Z) were compared, adjustingfor gender effects, using 2-way ANOVA. Annual mean change in FEV segregated, as expected, according to phenotype, ‘severe’ (ns25), ‘moderate’ (ns51) and ‘mild’ (ns25) y3.01(y3.73 to y2.30)%, y0.85(y1.36 to y0.35)%, 2.70(1.92 to 3.46)%, respectively, with no gender difference. LS and TB BMDZ were different in each phenotype (P-s 0.002), LS BMDZ for ‘severe’, ‘moderate’ and ‘mild’ y1.63(CI: y2.07 to y 1.19), y0.86(CI: y1.17 to y0.55), y0.06(CI: y0.54 to 0.41). Males had lower LS BMDZ than females overall (y1.22 (CI: y1.54 to y0.91) vs. y0.48(CI: y 0.84 to y0.12) Ps0.002). In the ‘severe’ group, males had lower TB BMDZ and LS BMDZ (PF0.002). Low BMD is associated with ‘moderate’ and ‘severe’ phenotypes, with relative preservation in females in the ‘severe’ group. Female biology (reproductive fitness) might promote resistance to bone resorption at a critical level of BMD loss.

Diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori infection in adults with intellectual disability

Helicobacter pylori infection is common among adults with intellectual disability. The acceptabilities and accuracies of different diagnostic tests in this population are unknown. We aimed to determine (i) patient acceptability and (ii) performance characteristics of serology, fecal-antigen, and urea breath tests among adults with intellectual disability. One hundred sixty-eight such adults underwent H. pylori testing with serology and fecal-antigen tests, and a portion underwent treatment. One year later, the participants were retested with fecal-antigen, serology, and urea breath tests. The numbers of specimens obtained and difficulties in collection reported by caregivers were noted. Test performance characteristics were assessed among participants and 65 of their caregivers, using serology as the reference. All participants provided at least one specimen, despite reported collection difficulties for 23% of fecal and 27% of blood specimens. Only 25% of the participants provided breath specimens; failure to perform this test was associated with lower intellectual ability and higher maladaptive behavior. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the fecal test (baseline and 12 months versus caregivers) were 70 and 63 versus 81, 93 and 95 versus 98, 96 and 92 versus 93, and 53 and 74 versus 93%, respectively; those of the urea breath test (12 months versus caregivers) were 86 versus 100, 88 versus 95, 75 versus 89, and 94 versus 100%, respectively. With assistance, fecal or blood specimens for H. pylori assessment can be provided by most patients with intellectual disability regardless of their level of function or behavior. Only those with greater ability can perform the urea breath test. Using serology as the reference test, the limitations of performance characteristics of the fecal-antigen and urea breath tests are similar to those among a control group of caregivers.

Anomalous water absorption in porous materials

The absorption of fluid by unsaturated, rigid porous materials may be characterized by the sorptivity. This is a simple parameter to determine and is increasingly being used as a measure of a material's resistance to exposure to fluids (especially moisture and reactive solutes) in aggressive environments. The complete isothermal absorption process is described by a nonlinear diffusion equation, with the hydraulic diffusivity being a strongly nonlinear function of the degree of saturation of the material. This diffusivity can be estimated from the sorptivity test. In a typical test the cumulative absorption is proportional to the square root of time. However, a number of researchers have observed deviation from this behaviour when the infiltrating fluid is water and there is some potential for chemo-mechanical interaction with the material. In that case the current interpretation of the test and estimation of the hydraulic diffusivity is no longer appropriate. Kuntz and Lavallee (2001) discuss the anomalous behaviour and propose a non-Darcian model as a more appropriate physical description. We present an alternative Darcian explanation and theory that retrieves the earlier advantages of the simple sorptivity test in providing parametric information about the material's hydraulic properties and allowing simple predictive formulae for the wetting profile to be generated.

Modified logit life table system: Principles, empirical validation, and application

Despite its widespread use, the Coale-Demeny model life table system does not capture the extensive variation in age-specific mortality patterns observed in contemporary populations, particularly those of the countries of Eastern Europe and populations affected by HIV/AIDS. Although relational mortality models, such as the Brass logit system, can identify these variations, these models show systematic bias in their predictive ability as mortality levels depart from the standard. We propose a modification of the two-parameter Brass relational model. The modified model incorporates two additional age-specific correction factors (gamma(x), and theta(x)) based on mortality levels among children and adults, relative to the standard. Tests of predictive validity show deviations in age-specific mortality rates predicted by the proposed system to be 30-50 per cent lower than those predicted by the Coale-Demeny system and 15-40 per cent lower than those predicted using the original Brass system. The modified logit system is a two-parameter system, parameterized using values of l(5) and l(60).

Consumidor de mídias móveis : a influência do perfil do adotante na relação entre valor percebido e intenção de compra

O presente estudo tem por objetivo avaliar se o perfil do adotante de inovações altera a relação entre o Valor Percebido e a Intenção de Compra de mídias móveis (smartphones, tablets, ultrabooks e leitores de e-books). Trata-se de uma pesquisa quantitativa que busca explorar a relação estrutural entre as variáveis por meio de Modelagem de Equações Estruturais (SEM – Strutural Equation Modeling). O modelo de pesquisa proposto foi desenvolvido tendo como base a Teoria da Difusão da Inovação (TDI), a Teoria Unificada de Aceitação e Uso de Tecnologia (UTAUT), o Modelo de Aceitação de Tecnologia (TAM), o Modelo Baseado em Valor (VAM), o Modelo de Aceitação de Tecnologia pelo Consumidor (CAT) e o Modelo de Influência Social (IS). Para coletar os dados foi utilizada a técnica snowball sampling ou amostragem em bola de neve, forma de amostragem não probabilística utilizada em pesquisas sociais. Foi feito um levantamento (survey), distribuindo-se questionário disponibilizado pela rede social Facebook, a partir dos contatos do autorsolicitando-se que os respondentes replicassem em suas páginas pessoais o link da pesquisa, ampliando a amostra. A coleta dos dados foi realizada nos meses de setembro e outubro de 2013, obtendo-se um total de 362 questionários respondidos. O estudo apresentou um efeito significativo da variável Valor Percebido na Intenção de Compra (estatística t = 4,506; nível de significância de 1%), além de sustentar a influência moderadora do Perfil do Adotante sobre essa relação (estatística t = 4,066; nível de significância de 1%), apresentando alto impacto sobre a Intenção de Compra (f 2 = 0,582) e relevância preditiva moderada (q2 = 0,290). Entre as variáveis antecedentes relacionadas à adoção de tecnologia, não apresentaram efeito significativo sobre o Valor Percebido: a Facilidade de Uso Percebida, a Complexidade Percebida e o Risco Percebido. O modelo contribuiu significativamente para explicar a influência dos fatores que impactam o Valor Percebido (R2 = 51,7%) o efeito do Valor Percebido na Intenção de Compra (R2 = 49,1%) de equipamentos eletrônicos portáteis. O suporte da presumidade influência moderadora do Perfil do Adotante sobre a relação Valor Percebido e Intenção de Compra indica que as organizações devem conhecer melhor os consumidores desse tipo de equipamento móveis, segmentando e desenvolvendo ações alinhadas com cada perfil de adotante.

Usabilidade e qualidade da informação : avaliação do Portal do aluno da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar o Portal do Aluno da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, identificando fatores associados à usabilidade que afetam a percepção de qualidade da informação e diferenciando grupos de usuários em função da usabilidade do Portal. Para tanto, foi realizado um levantamento por meio de um questionário aplicado aos usuários, com abordagem predominantemente quantitativa. Foi descrito o perfil dos alunos, o contexto em que utilizam o Portal e qual avaliação fazem dos relatórios e atividades. A partir do modelo elaborado no estudo, no qual a usabilidade contou com seis dimensões (facilidade de aprendizado, facilidade de memorização, eficiência, satisfação, suporte a erros e utilidade), constatou-se que, com exceção da facilidade de aprendizado, as demais dimensões possuem significância estatística na percepção da qualidade da informação, sendo a mais influente a dimensão satisfação. Por meio da análise de conglomerados, foram identificados três grupos, com base nas avaliações dos fatores associados ao atendimento de suas expectativas e aos resultados do uso do portal (satisfação, eficiência e utilidade): o primeiro grupo composto por alunos que avaliaram melhor estes fatores bem como as atividades, os relatórios e a qualidade da informação do Portal; o segundo que avaliaram medianamente; e o terceiro que avaliaram pior. Através da regressão simples utilizando a média das dimensões de usabilidade, verificou-se também que a qualidade da informação está fortemente correlacionada (r=0,7) com a usabilidade do Portal, tendo um poder de predição de 49%. Também foram obtidas respostas acerca do que era mais confuso e sugestões de melhorias que ajudaram a formular, conjuntamente com as demais análises, as propostas do Plano de Intervenção. Embora ainda apresente deficiências, em uma escala de 0 a 5, o Portal foi avaliado acima da média na dimensão satisfação (3,42), bem como obteve média geral de qualidade da informação de 3,31 e de usabilidade de 3,69 . Desta forma, pode-se dizer que ele tem cumprido sua função.

Proposta de um algoritmo GPC adaptativo com baixo custo computacional

Esta dissertação propõe um algoritmo do Controlador Preditivo Generalizado (GPC) com horizonte de controle igual a um para ser aplicado em plantas industriais com modelos variantes no tempo, simples o su ficiente para ser implementado em Controlador Lógico Programável (PLC). A solução explícita do controlador é obtida em função dos parâmetros do modelo e dos parâmetros de sintonia do GPC (horizonte nal de predição hp e o fator de supressão do sinal de controle ), além das entradas e saídas presentes e passadas. A sintonia do fator de supressão e do horizonte de previsão GPC é feita através do lugar das raízes da equação característica do sistema em malha fechada, sempre que os parâmetros do modelo da planta industrial (estável ou instável em malha aberta) forem modificados.