ACIAR Feasibility of farmers managing climate related crop production risk in India

Validation of new Indian seasonal climate forecasting products. In the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh (AP) kharif crops are heavily dependent on summer monsoon rains, where the timing and intensity of the rains affects crop yield. The majority of farms in AP are small and marginal, making them very vulnerable to yield reductions. Farmers also lack access to relevant information that might enable them to respond to seasonal conditions. Enabling farmers to utilise seasonal climate forecasting would allow them to respond to seasonal variability. To do this, farmers need a forecasting system that indicates a specific management strategy for the upcoming season, and effective and timely communication of the forecast information. Current agro-meteorological advisories in AP are issued on a bi-weekly basis, and they are relevant to an agro-climatic zone scale which may not be sufficiently relevant at a village level. Also, the information in the advisories may not be necessarily packaged in way relevant to cropping decisions by farmers. The objectives of this project are to evaluate the skill of seasonal climate forecasts to be issued for the 2008 monsoon season, to assess crop management options in response to seasonal scenarios that capture the range of seasonal climatic variability, to develop and evaluate options for effective communication and adoption of climate forecasts and agricultural advisories, and to synthesise and report on options for future research investments into seasonal climate forecasting.

Strong evidence for a novel schizophrenia risk locus on chromosome 1p31.1 in homogeneous pedigrees from Tamil Nadu, India

OBJECTIVE: The study of ethnically homogeneous populations may help to identify schizophrenia risk loci. The authors conducted a genomewide linkage scan for schizophrenia in an Indian population. METHOD: Participants were 441 individuals (262 affected probands and siblings) who were recruited primarily from one ethnically homogeneous group, the Tamil Brahmin caste, although individuals from other geographically proximal castes also participated. Genotyping of 124 affected sibling pair pedigrees was performed with 402 short tandem repeat polymorphisms. Linkage analyses were conducted using nonparametric exponential LOD (logarithm of the odds ratio for linkage) scores and parametric heterogeneity LOD scores. Parametric heterogeneity scores were calculated using simple dominant and recessive models, correcting for multiple statistics. The data were examined for evidence of consanguinity. Genomewide significance levels were determined using 10,000 gene dropping simulations. RESULTS: These findings revealed genomewide significant linkage to chromosome 1p31.1, through the use of both exponential and heterogeneity LOD scores, incorporating correction for multiple statistics and mild consanguinity. The estimated sibling recurrence risk associated with this putative locus was 1.95. Analysis for heterogeneity LOD scores also detected suggestive linkage to chromosomes 13q22.1 and 16q12.2. Using 117 tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), family-based association analyses of phosphodiesterase 4B (PDE4B), the closest schizophrenia candidate gene, detected no convincing evidence of association, suggesting that the chromosome 1 peak represents a novel risk locus. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study-to the authors' knowledge-to report significant linkage of schizophrenia to chromosome 1p31.1. Further investigation of this chromosome region in diverse populations is warranted to identify underlying sequence variants.

Impacts of a fuel oil spill on seagrass meadows in a subtropical port, Gladstone, Australia - The value of long-term marine habitat monitoring in high risk areas.

We used an established seagrass monitoring programme to examine the short and longer-term impacts of an oil spill event on intertidal seagrass meadows. Results for potentially impacted seagrass areas were compared with existing monitoring data and with control seagrass meadows located outside of the oil spill area. Seagrass meadows were not significantly affected by the oil spill. Declines in seagrass biomass and area 1 month post-spill were consistent between control and impact meadows. Eight months post-spill, seagrass density and area increased to be within historical ranges. The declines in seagrass meadows were likely attributable to natural seasonal variation and a combination of climatic and anthropogenic impacts. The lack of impact from the oil spill was due to several mitigating factors rather than a lack of toxic effects to seagrasses. The study demonstrates the value of long-term monitoring of critical habitats in high risk areas to effectively assess impacts.

Risk-based surveillance for avian influenza control along poultry market chains in South China: The value of social network analysis.

Over the past two decades, the poultry sector in China went through a phase of tremendous growth as well as rapid intensification and concentration. Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N1 was first detected in 1996 in Guangdong province, South China and started spreading throughout Asia in early 2004. Since then, control of the disease in China has relied heavily on wide-scale preventive vaccination combined with movement control, quarantine and stamping out. This strategy has been successful in drastically reducing the number of outbreaks during the past 5 years. However, HPAIV H5N1 is still circulating and is regularly isolated in traditional live bird markets (LBMs) where viral infection can persist, which represent a public health hazard for people visiting them. The use of social network analysis in combination with epidemiological surveillance in South China has identified areas where the success of current strategies for HPAI control in the poultry production sector may benefit from better knowledge of poultry trading patterns and the LBM network configuration as well as their capacity for maintaining HPAIV H5N1 infection. We produced a set of LBM network maps and estimated the associated risk of HPAIV H5N1 within LBMs and along poultry market chains, providing new insights into how live poultry trade and infection are intertwined. More specifically, our study provides evidence that several biosecurity factors such as daily cage cleaning, daily cage disinfection or manure processing contribute to a reduction in HPAIV H5N1 presence in LBMs. Of significant importance is that the results of our study also show the association between social network indicators and the presence of HPAIV H5N1 in specific network configurations such as the one represented by the counties of origin of the birds traded in LBMs. This new information could be used to develop more targeted and effective control interventions.

Quantitative Trait Loci for CD4:CD8 Lymphocyte Ratio Are Associated with Risk of Type 1 Diabetes and HIV-1 Immune Control

Abnormal expansion or depletion of particular lymphocyte subsets is associated with clinical manifestations such as HIV progression to AIDS and autoimmune disease. We sought to identify genetic predictors of lymphocyte levels and reasoned that these may play a role in immune-related diseases. We tested 2.3 million variants for association with five lymphocyte subsets, measured in 2538 individuals from the general population, including CD4+ T cells, CD8+ T cells, CD56+ natural killer (NK) cells, and the derived measure CD4:CD8 ratio. We identified two regions of strong association. The first was located in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), with multiple SNPs strongly associated with CD4:CD8 ratio (rs2524054, p = 2.1 × 10−28). The second region was centered within a cluster of genes from the Schlafen family and was associated with NK cell levels (rs1838149, p = 6.1 × 10−14). The MHC association with CD4:CD8 replicated convincingly (p = 1.4 × 10−9) in an independent panel of 988 individuals. Conditional analyses indicate that there are two major independent quantitative trait loci (QTL) in the MHC region that regulate CD4:CD8 ratio: one is located in the class I cluster and influences CD8 levels, whereas the second is located in the class II cluster and regulates CD4 levels. Jointly, both QTL explained 8% of the variance in CD4:CD8 ratio. The class I variants are also strongly associated with durable host control of HIV, and class II variants are associated with type-1 diabetes, suggesting that genetic variation at the MHC may predispose one to immune-related diseases partly through disregulation of T cell homeostasis.

Polymorphisms in the vascular endothelial growth factor gene and the risk of familial endometriosis

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is an endothelial cell-specific angiogenic protein suspected to be involved in the pathogenesis of endometriosis by establishing a new blood supply to the human exfoliated endometrium. Several transcription factor-binding sites are found in the VEGF 5'-untranslated region and variation within the region increases the transcriptional activity. Six previous studies which tested between one and three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in samples comprising 105-215 cases and 100-219 controls have produced conflicting evidence for association between the SNPs in the VEGF region and endometriosis. To further investigate the reported association between VEGF variants and endometriosis, we tested the four VEGF polymorphisms (-2578 A/C, rs699947; -460 T/C, rs833061; +405 G/C, rs2010963 and +936 C/T, rs3025039) in a large Australian sample of 958 familial endometriosis cases and 959 controls. We also conducted a literature-based review of all relevant association studies of these VEGF SNPs in endometriosis and performed a meta-analysis. There was no evidence for association between endometriosis and the VEGF polymorphisms genotyped in our study. Combined association results from a meta-analysis did not provide any evidence for either genotypic or allelic association with endometriosis. Our detailed review and meta-analysis of the VEGF polymorphisms suggests that genotyping assay problems may underlie the previously reported associations between VEGF variants and endometriosis.

Common variation in the CYP17A1 and IFIT1 genes on chromosome 10 does not contribute to the risk of endometriosis

Endometriosis is a complex disease involving multiple susceptibility genes and environmental factors. Our previous studies on endometriosis identified a region of significant linkage on chromosome 10q. Two biological candidate genes (CYP17A1 and IFIT1) located on chromosome 10q, have previously been implicated in endometriosis and/or uterine function. We hypothesized that variation in CYP17A1 and/or IFIT1 could contribute to the risk of endometriosis and may account for some of the linkage signal on chromosome 10q. We genotyped 17 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CYP17A1 and IFIT1 genes including SNP rs743572 previously associated with endometriosis in 768 endometriosis cases and 768 unrelated controls. We found no evidence for association between endometriosis and individual SNPs or SNP haplotypes in CYP17A1 and IFIT1. Common variation in these genes does not appear to be a major contributor to endometriosis susceptibility in our Australian sample.

The search for genes contributing to endometriosis risk

BACKGROUND: Genetic variation contributes to the risk of developing endometriosis. This review summarizes gene mapping studies in endometriosis and the prospects of finding gene pathways contributing to disease using the latest genome-wide strategies. METHODS: To identify candidate-gene association studies of endometriosis, a systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed of publications up to 1 April 2008, using the search terms 'endometriosis' plus 'allele' or 'polymorphism' or 'gene'. Papers included were those with information on both case and control selection, showed allelic and/or genotypic results for named germ-line polymorphisms and were published in the English language. RESULTS: Genetic variants in 76 genes have been examined for association, but none shows convincing evidence of replication in multiple studies. There is evidence for genetic linkage to chromosomes 7 and 10, but the genes (or variants) in these regions contributing to disease risk have yet to be identified. Genome-wide association is a powerful method that has been successful in locating genetic variants contributing to a range of common diseases. Several groups are planning these studies in endometriosis. For this to be successful, the endometriosis research community must work together to genotype sufficient cases, using clearly defined disease classifications, and conduct the necessary replication studies in several thousands of cases and controls. CONCLUSIONS: Genes with convincing evidence for association with endometriosis are likely to be identified in large genome-wide studies. This will provide a starting point for functional and biological studies to develop better diagnosis and treatment for this debilitating disease.

Variants in EMX2 and PTEN do not contribute to risk of endometriosis

Endometriosis has a genetic component, and significant linkage has been found to a region on chromosome 10q. Two candidate genes, EMX2 and PTEN, implicated in both endometriosis and endometrial cancer, lie on chromosome 10q. We hypothesized that variation in EMX2 and/or PTEN could contribute to the risk of endometriosis and may account for some of the linkage signal on 10q. We genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a case-control design to evaluate association between endometriosis and common variations in these two genes. The genotyping and statistical analysis were based on samples collected from Australian volunteers. The cases were 768 unrelated women with surgically confirmed endometriosis selected from affected sister pair (ASP) families participating in the Australian Genes behind Endometriosis Study. The controls were 768 female participants in twin studies who, based on screening questions, did not have a diagnosis of endometriosis. Genotypes of 22 SNPs in the EMX2 gene and 15 SNPs in the PTEN gene were the main outcome measures. Statistical analysis provided measures of linkage disequilibrium and association. Permutation testing showed no globally significant association between any SNPs or haplotypes and endometriosis for either gene. It is unlikely that the EMX2 or PTEN gene variants investigated contribute to risk for initiation and/or development of endometriosis.

KRAS variation and risk of endometriosis

Endometriosis is a common gynaecological disease with symptoms of pelvic pain and infertility which affects 7-10% of women in their reproductive years. Activation of an oncogenic allele of Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homologue (KRAS) in the reproductive tract of mice resulted in the development of endometriosis. We hypothesized that variation in KRAS may influence risk of endometriosis in humans. Thirty tagSNPs spanning a region of 60.7 kb across the KRAS locus were genotyped using iPLEX chemistry on a MALDI-TOF MassARRAY platform in 959 endometriosis cases and 959 unrelated controls, and data were analysed for association with endometriosis. Genotypes were obtained for most individuals with a mean completion rate of 99.1%. We identified six haplotype blocks across the KRAS locus in our sample. There were no significant differences between cases and controls in the frequencies of individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) or haplotypes. We also developed a rapid method to screen for 11 common KRAS and BRAF mutations on the Sequenom MassARRAY system. The assay detected all mutations previously identified by direct sequencing in a panel of positive controls. No germline variants for KRAS or BRAF were detected. Our results demonstrate that any risk of endometriosis in women because of common variation in KRAS must be very small.

Ecological risk assessment of the East Coast Otter Trawl Fishery in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park: Data report

An ecological risk assessment of the East Coast Otter Trawl Fishery in the Great Barrier Reef Region was undertaken in 2010 and 2011. It assessed the risks posed by this fishery to achieving fishery-related and broader ecological objectives of both the Queensland and Australian governments, including risks to the values and integrity of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area. The risks assessed included direct and indirect effects on the species caught in the fishery as well as on the structure and functioning of the ecosystem. This ecosystem-based approach included an assessment of the impacts on harvested species, by-catch, species of conservation concern, marine habitats, species assemblages and ecosystem processes. The assessment took into account current management arrangements and fishing practices at the time of the assessment. The main findings of the assessment were: Current risk levels from trawling activities are generally low. Some risks from trawling remain. Risks from trawling have reduced in the Great Barrier Reef Region. Trawl fishing effort is a key driver of ecological risk. Zoning has been important in reducing risks. Reducing identified unacceptable risks requires a range of management responses. The commercial fishing industry is supportive and being proactive. Further reductions in trawl by-catch, high compliance with rules and accurate information from ongoing risk monitoring are important. Trawl fishing is just one of the sources of risk to the Great Barrier Reef.

Risk factors associated with corneal nerve alteration in type 1 diabetes in the absence of neuropathy: A longitudinal in vivo corneal confocal microscopy study

Purpose The aim of this study was to determine alterations to the corneal subbasal nerve plexus (SNP) over four years using in vivo corneal confocal microscopy (IVCM) in participants with type 1 diabetes and to identify significant risk factors associated with these alterations. Methods A cohort of 108 individuals with type 1 diabetes and no evidence of peripheral neuropathy at enrollment underwent laser-scanning IVCM, ocular screening, and health and metabolic assessment at baseline and the examinations continued for four subsequent annual visits. At each annual visit, eight central corneal images of the SNP were selected and analyzed to quantify corneal nerve fiber density (CNFD), branch density (CNBD) and fiber length (CNFL). Linear mixed model approaches were fitted to examine the relationship between risk factors and corneal nerve parameters. Results A total of 96 participants completed the final visit and 91 participants completed all visits. No significant relationships were found between corneal nerve parameters and time, sex, duration of diabetes, smoking, alcohol consumption, blood pressure or BMI. However, CNFD was negatively associated with HbA1c (β=-0.76, P<0.01) and age (β=-0.13, P<0.01) and positively related to high density lipids (HDL) (β=2.01, P=0.03). Higher HbA1c (β=-1.58, P=0.04) and age (β=-0.23, P<0.01) also negatively impacted CNBD. CNFL was only affected by higher age (β=-0.06, P<0.01). Conclusions Glycemic control, HDL and age have significant effects on SNP structure. These findings highlight the importance of diabetic management to prevent corneal nerve damage as well as the capability of IVCM for monitoring subclinical alterations in the corneal SNP in diabetes.

Economic aspects of post-border weed risk management

Aim: Decision-making in weed management involves consideration of limited budgets, long time horizons, conflicting priorities, and as a result, trade-offs. Economics provides tools that allow these issues to be addressed and is thus integral to management of the risks posed by weeds. One of the critical issues in weed risk management during the early stages of an invasion concerns feasibility of eradication. We briefly review how economics may be used in weed risk management, concentrating on this management strategy. Location: Australia. Methods: A range of innovative studies that investigate aspects of weed risk management are reviewed. We show how these could be applied to newly invading weeds, focussing on methods for investigating eradication feasibility. In particular, eradication feasibility is analysed in terms of cost and duration of an eradication programme, using a simulation model based on field-derived parameter values for chromolaena, Chromolaena odorata. Results: The duration of an eradication programme can be reduced by investing in progressively higher amounts of search effort per hectare, but increasing search area will become relatively more expensive as search effort increases. When variation in survey and control success is taken into account, increasing search effort also reduces uncertainty around the required duration of the eradication programme. Main conclusions: Economics is integral to the management of the risks posed by weeds. Decision analysis, based on economic principles, is now commonly used to tackle key issues that confront weed managers. For eradication feasibility, duration and cost of a weed eradication programme are critical components; the dimensions of both factors can usefully be estimated through simulation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potential Distribution and Risk Assessment of an Invasive Plant Species: A Case Study of Hymenachne amplexicaulis in Australia

Given the limited resources available for weed management, a strategic approach is required to give the best bang for your buck. The current study incorporates: (1) a model ensemble approach to identify areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding a species invasive potential, (2) current distribution of the invaded species, and (3) connectivity of systems to identify target regions and focus efforts for more effective management. Uncertainty in the prediction of suitable habitat for H. amplexicaulis (study species) in Australia was addressed in an ensemble-forecasting approach to compare distributional scenarios from four models (CLIMATCH; CLIMEX; boosted regression trees [BRT]; maximum entropy [Maxent]). Models were built using subsets of occurrence and environmental data. Catchment risk was determined through incorporating habitat suitability, the current abundance and distribution of H. amplexicaulis, and catchment connectivity. Our results indicate geographic differences between predictions of different approaches. Despite these differences a number of catchments in northern, central, and southern Australia were identified as high risk of invasion or further spread by all models suggesting they should be given priority for the management of H. amplexicaulis. The study also highlighted the utility of ensemble approaches in indentifying areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding the species invasive potential.

Undersowing in a northern climate: effects on spring cereal yield and risk of nitrate leaching

Disadvantages of invariable cereal cropping, concern of nutrient leaching and prices of nitrogen (N) fertilizer have all increased during last decades. An undersown crop, which grows together with a main crop and after harvest, could mitigate all those questions. The aim of this study was to develop undersowing in Finnish conditions, so that it suits for spring cereal farming as well as possible and enhances taking care of soil and environment, especially when control of N is concerned. In total, 17 plant species were undersown in spring cereals during the field experiments between 1991-1999 at four sites in South and Central Finland, but after selection, eight of them were studied more thoroughly. Two legumes, one grass species and one mixture of them were included in long-term trials in order to study annually repeated undersowing. Further, simultaneous broadcasting of seeds instead of separate undersowing was studied. Grain yield response and the capacity of the undersown crop to absorb soil N or fix N from atmosphere, and the release of N were of greatest interest. Seeding rates of undersown crops and N fertilization rates during annually repeated undersowing were also studied. Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam., IR) absorbed soil nitrate N (NO3-N) most efficiently in autumn and timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in spring. The capacity of other grass species to absorb N was low, or it was insufficient considering the negative effect on grain yield. Red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) and white clover (Trifolium repens L.) suited well in annually repeated undersowing, supplying fixed N for cereals without markedly increased risk of N leaching. Autumn oriented growth rhythm of the studied legumes was optimal for undersowing, whereas the growth rhythm of grasses was less suited but varied between species. A model of adaptive undersowing system was outlined in order to emphasize allocation of measures according needs. After defining the goal of undersowing, many decisions are to be done. When diminishing N leaching is primarily sought, a mixture of IR and timothy is advantageous. Clovers suit for replacing N fertilization, as the positive residual effect is greater than the negative effect caused by competition. A mixture of legume and non legume is a good choice when increased diversity is the main target. Seeding rate is an efficient means for adjusting competition and N effects. Broadcasting with soil covering equipment can be used to establish an undersown crop. In addition, timing and method of cover crop termination have an important role in the outcome. Continuous observing of the system is needed as for instance conditions significantly affect growth of undersown crop and on the other hand N release from crop residues may increase in long run.