Proving the performance of a new revenue management system

Revenue management (RM) is a complicated business process that can best be described ascontrol of sales (using prices, restrictions, or capacity), usually using software as a tool to aiddecisions. RM software can play a mere informative role, supplying analysts with formatted andsummarized data who use it to make control decisions (setting a price or allocating capacity fora price point), or, play a deeper role, automating the decisions process completely, at the otherextreme. The RM models and algorithms in the academic literature by and large concentrateon the latter, completely automated, level of functionality.A firm considering using a new RM model or RM system needs to evaluate its performance.Academic papers justify the performance of their models using simulations, where customerbooking requests are simulated according to some process and model, and the revenue perfor-mance of the algorithm compared to an alternate set of algorithms. Such simulations, whilean accepted part of the academic literature, and indeed providing research insight, often lackcredibility with management. Even methodologically, they are usually awed, as the simula-tions only test \within-model" performance, and say nothing as to the appropriateness of themodel in the first place. Even simulations that test against alternate models or competition arelimited by their inherent necessity on fixing some model as the universe for their testing. Theseproblems are exacerbated with RM models that attempt to model customer purchase behav-ior or competition, as the right models for competitive actions or customer purchases remainsomewhat of a mystery, or at least with no consensus on their validity.How then to validate a model? Putting it another way, we want to show that a particularmodel or algorithm is the cause of a certain improvement to the RM process compared to theexisting process. We take care to emphasize that we want to prove the said model as the causeof performance, and to compare against a (incumbent) process rather than against an alternatemodel.In this paper we describe a \live" testing experiment that we conducted at Iberia Airlineson a set of flights. A set of competing algorithms control a set of flights during adjacentweeks, and their behavior and results are observed over a relatively long period of time (9months). In parallel, a group of control flights were managed using the traditional mix of manualand algorithmic control (incumbent system). Such \sandbox" testing, while common at manylarge internet search and e-commerce companies is relatively rare in the revenue managementarea. Sandbox testing has an undisputable model of customer behavior but the experimentaldesign and analysis of results is less clear. In this paper we describe the philosophy behind theexperiment, the organizational challenges, the design and setup of the experiment, and outlinethe analysis of the results. This paper is a complement to a (more technical) related paper thatdescribes the econometrics and statistical analysis of the results.

Intérêt du bleu de méthylène dans la chirurgie de l'hyperparathyroïdism primaire [Methylene blue in surgery of primary hyperparathyroidism]

Is surgery for primary hyperparathyroidism easier when methylene blue (MB) is given preoperatively? This retrospective study compares the durations of interventions for primary hyperparathyroidism carried out after i.v. MB administration to those when no MB was given. Over a period of 20 years (June 1976 to December 1996), 175 consecutive patients (56 men and 119 women, with ages ranging from 16 to 92, mean 59.6) were operated upon for primary hyperparathyrodism; 55 were operated before February 1986--the period when BM was introduced routinely, and 120 after. Thirty-two other patients were excluded from the study: 14 had had a previous cervicotomy and 18 another procedure in addition to the parathyroidectomy (usually on the thyroid gland), two conditions which prolonged the time devoted to parathyroid identification and excision. Preoperative calcemia averaged 2.97 mmol/L (2.34 to 4.59) and mean preoperative PTH was equal to 2.6 times the upper normal limit (0.5 to 24.1). Both groups were similar for as age, sex, preoperative calcium and PTH, and histologies. Methylene blue was administered intravenously (5 mg/kg diluted in 500 cc of 5% glucose) over a period of time of one hour starting two hours prior to surgery. All 175 procedures were performed by two surgeons and duration of surgery was recorded from the anesthesiologist's notes. There were 149 adenomas (85%), 24 hyperplasias (14%), a combination of both in two, and unspecified in two others. Except for a case of acute lower back pain synchronous to the injection of the dye (which was immediately stopped), MB was well tolerated. Mean duration for the 55 interventions performed without MB was 68 minutes (35 to 140, median 60), compared to 49 minutes for the 120 procedures carried out after MB had been given (20 to 155, median 45). Differences in operative, times were highly significant (p < 10(-6) and represented a gain of time of 27%. Surgery for primary hyperparathyroidism was significantly shorter when it was preceded by the administration of MB, a dye which facilitates the identification of pathologic parathyroid gland(s).

Impact of small variations in temperature and humidity on the reproductive activity and survival of Aedes aegypti (Diptera, Culicidae)

In short space of time increase in temperature and rainfall can affect vector populations and, consequently, the diseases for them transmitted. The present study analyzed the effect of small temperature and humidity variations on the fecundity, fertility and survival of Aedes aegypti. These parameters were analyzed using individual females at temperatures ranging from 23 to 27 °C (mean 25 °C); 28 to 32 °C (mean 30 °C) and 33 to 37 °C (mean 35 ºC) associated to 60±8% and 80±6% relative humidity. Females responded to an increase in temperature by reducing egg production, oviposition time and changing oviposition patterns. At 25 ºC and 80% relative humidity, females survived two-fold more and produced 40% more eggs when compared to those kept at 35 ºC and 80% relative humidity. However, in 45% of females kept at 35 ºC and 60% relative humidity oviposition was inhibited and only 15% females laid more than 100 eggs, suggesting that the intensity of the temperature effect was influenced by humidity. Gradual reductions in egg fertility at 60% relative humidity were observed with the increase in temperature, although such effect was not found in the 80% relative humidity at 25 º C and 30 º C. These results suggest that the reduction in population densities recorded in tropical areas during seasons when temperatures reach over 35 ºC is likely to be strongly influenced by temperature and humidity, with a negative effect on several aspects of mosquito biology.

Assessment of speed of human locomotion using a differential satellite global positioning system.

PURPOSE: The objective was to explore whether a satellite-based navigation system, global positioning system used in differential mode (DGPS), could accurately assess the speed of running in humans. METHODS: A subject was equipped with a portable GPS receptor coupled to a receiver for differential corrections, while running outdoors on a straight asphalt road at 27 different speeds. Actual speed (reference method) was assessed by chronometry. RESULTS: The accuracy of speed prediction had a standard deviation (SD) of 0.08 km x h(-1) for walking, 0.11 km x h(-1) for running, yielding a coefficient of variation (SD/mean) of 1.38% and 0.82%, respectively. There was a highly significant linear relationship between actual and DGPS speed assessment (r2 = 0.999) with little bias in the prediction equation, because the slope of the regression line was close to unity (0.997). CONCLUSION: the DGPS technique appears to be a valid and inconspicuous tool for "on line" monitoring of the speed of displacement of individuals located on any field on earth, for prolonged periods of time and unlimited distance, but only in specific environmental conditions ("open sky"). Furthermore, the accuracy of speed assessment using the differential GPS mode was improved by a factor of 10 as compared to non-differential GPS.

Record keeping by Swiss physiotherapists--a national survey of knowledge regarding legal requirements.

A national survey conducted in Switzerland aimed to evaluate the knowledge of physiotherapists regarding the legal requirements for record keeping and to collect their feedback about record keeping in general. Three physiotherapists from various professional practice groups and a lawyer specialised in health law developed a questionnaire that was sent to the 7,753 members of two existing national associations of physiotherapists. The questionnaire evaluated the participants' knowledge by calculating a score of legal knowledge, which had a maximum of 30 points. We included 825 questionnaires in the analysis. The large majority (83.4%) of participants confessed an ignorance of the legal requirements concerning record keeping prior to the survey. The average score of legal compatibility was 8 points. The younger age of the physiotherapists was a significant predictor of having knowledge of the legal requirements for record keeping (p <0.001). The participants had an appreciation of the value of records, but they did not have the relevant knowledge regarding the legal requirements for keeping records. The participants blamed a lack of time and remuneration for their failure to keep records according to known requirements. All practising allied health professionals should keep up-to-date and accurate records that conform to active legal requirements and existing international guidelines. In addition to the existing legal requirements, the emergence of e-health and the electronic era will trigger major changes in patient record management by physiotherapists.

A community survey of sun exposure, sunburn and sun protection.

AIM: To describe outdoor activities, sun protection behaviours and the experience of sunburn in a sample of New Zealanders during summer weekends of 1994. METHODS: 1243 respondents to a telephone survey provided information regarding their outdoor activities for the 5 hour period around midday of the previous Saturday and Sunday. The sample was drawn from those aged 15 to 65 years in the five centres of Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin. Respondents provided information on sun exposure, sunburn, sun protection and beliefs about tanning, as well as background demographic information, skin type and previous experience of sunburn. RESULTS: 12% of the sample (or 17% of all those outdoors) reported being sunburned on the preceding weekend, and those sunburned tended to be men, and to be under age 35 years. The face, neck and limbs were the areas most frequently reported as burned. Sporting activities and beach or water activities were associated with the highest number of episodes of burning. Overall 38% of those outside reported wearing a hat and 32% reported the use of a sunscreen. Positive attitudes to tanning were quite common and probably present the main target for change in the community. CONCLUSION: On any sunny weekend in summer about three-quarters of adult New Zealanders will be out in the sun for relatively long periods of time, and many will get sunburned. The reduction of such harmful sun exposures remains an important public health goal.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

TIME-21 Funding Analysis A report to the Iowa Legislature, per Section 26, Senate File 2420, 82nd General Assembly

The 82nd General Assembly of the Iowa legislature, in Section 26 of Senate File 2420, required the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) to conduct an analysis of TIME-21 funding. Specifically the legislation requires the following: “The department of transportation shall conduct an analysis of the additional revenues necessary to provide at least two hundred million dollars annually to the TIME-21 fund by FY 2011-2012. The analysis shall include but is not limited to the amount of excise tax levied on motor fuel and adjustments that might be made to various fees collected by the department in order to create an appropriate balance of taxes and fees paid by Iowa drivers and out-of-state drivers. The department shall submit a report to the governor and the general assembly on or before December 31, 2008, regarding its analysis.” As a starting point to this analysis, a reassessment of long-range needs and revenues (including the estimated $200 million most critical annual unmet needs) was made. This was done by assessing changing trends in roadway conditions, revenue and construction costs since the original Study of Iowa’s Current Road Use Tax Funds (RUTF) and Future Road Maintenance and Construction Needs was completed December 2006.

TIME-21 Funding Analysis A report to the Iowa Legislature, per Section 26, Senate File 2420, 82nd General Assembly

The 82nd General Assembly of the Iowa legislature, in Section 26 of Senate File 2420, required the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) to conduct an analysis of TIME-21 funding. Specifically the legislation requires the following: “The department of transportation shall conduct an analysis of the additional revenues necessary to provide at least two hundred million dollars annually to the TIME-21 fund by FY 2011-2012. The analysis shall include but is not limited to the amount of excise tax levied on motor fuel and adjustments that might be made to various fees collected by the department in order to create an appropriate balance of taxes and fees paid by Iowa drivers and out-of-state drivers. The department shall submit a report to the governor and the general assembly on or before December 31, 2008, regarding its analysis.” As a starting point to this analysis, a reassessment of long-range needs and revenues (including the estimated $200 million most critical annual unmet needs) was made. This was done by assessing changing trends in roadway conditions, revenue and construction costs since the original Study of Iowa’s Current Road Use Tax Funds (RUTF) and Future Road Maintenance and Construction Needs was completed December 2006.

The burden of musculoskeletal disorders in Catalonia

INTRODUCTION: Musculoskeletal disorders(MSDs)are extremely common and one of the major causes of disease burden around the world. The original Global Burden of Disease Study was commisioned by the World Bank in 1991 and established the DALY(Disability Ajusted Life Years) as an indicator of disease burden. The DALY calculation allows an assessment of not only mortality but also disability, in terms of time lived in health states worse than perfect health.OBJECTIVE: To estimate the burden of musculoskeletal disorders in Catalonia in 2010, through calculation of the DALY index.

Génériques des médicaments antiépileptiques [Generics of antiepileptic drugs]

Generic substitution of antiepileptic drugs (EAD) have limited use because epilepsy is a chronic disease, seizure recurrence has an important impact of the quality of life and the potential risk of accidents. EADs have a narrow therapeutic window, non negligible side effects and complex interactions. Bioavailability of generic EADs, tested in healthy men during a limited period of time must be within the 90% IC, in which means that serum levels can range from 80% to 125% of the original drug. A slight drop in serum level could increase the risk of seizure recurrence, as indicated by several publications. Although no formal studies regarding cost effectiveness and the rate of seizure recurrence is available yet, the prevailing consensus recommends not to replace an original antiepileptic drug by a generic, due to the harmful risk of seizure recurrence.

BIRO1, a cell-permeable BH3 peptide, promotes mitochondrial fragmentation and death of retinoblastoma cells.

Retinoblastoma is the most common pediatric intraocular neoplasm. While retinoblastoma development requires the inactivation of both alleles of the retinoblastoma tumor suppressor gene (RB1) in the developing retina, additional genomic changes are involved in tumor progression, which progressively lead to resistance of tumor cells to death. Therapeutics acting at very downstream levels of death signaling pathways should therefore be interesting in killing retinoblastoma cells. The BH3-only proteins promote apoptosis by modulating the interaction between the pro- and antiapoptotic members of the BCL2 protein family, and this effect can be recapitulated by the BH3 domains. This report analyzes the effect of various BH3 peptides, corresponding to different BH3-only proteins, on two retinoblastoma cell lines, Y79 and WERI-Rb, as well as on the photoreceptor cell line 661W. The BH3 peptide BIRO1, derived from the BCL2L11 death domain, was very effective in promoting Y79 and WERI-Rb cell death without affecting the 661W photoreceptor cells. This cell death was efficient even in absence of BAX and was shown to be caspase independent. While ROS production or AIF release was not detected from mitochondria of treated cells, BIRO1 initiated mitochondria fragmentation in a short period of time following treatment. IMPLICATIONS: The BIRO1 peptide is highly effective at killing retinoblastoma cells and has potential as a peptidomimetic.

Advantages of using TEM when analysing asbestos in ambient air

Asbestos is an industrial term to describe some fibrous silicate minerals, which belong to the amphiboles or serpentines group. Six minerals are defined as asbestos including: chrysotile (white asbestos), amosite (grunerite, brown asbestos), crocidolite (riebeckite, blue asbestos), anthophyllite, tremolite and actonolite, but only in their fibrous form. In 1973, the IARC (International Agency for Research on Cancer) classified the asbestos minerals as carcinogenic substances (IARC,1973). The Swiss threshold limit (VME) is 0.01 fibre/ml (SUVA, 2007). Asbestos in Switzerland has been prohibited since 1990, but this doesn't mean we are over asbestos. Up to 20'000 tonnes/year of asbestos was imported between the end of WWII and 1990. Today, all this asbestos is still present in buildings renovated or built during that period of time. During restorations, asbestos fibres can be emitted into the air. The quantification of the emission has to be evaluated accurately. To define the exact risk on workers or on the population is quite hard, as many factors must be considered. The methods to detect asbestos in the air or in materials are still being discussed today. Even though the EPA 600 method (EPA, 1993) has proved itself for the analysis of bulk materials, the method for air analysis is more problematic. In Switzerland, the recommended method is VDI 3492 using a scanning electron microscopy (SEM), but we have encountered many identifications problems with this method. For instance, overloaded filters or long-term exposed filters cannot be analysed. This is why the Institute for Work and Health (IST) has adapted the ISO10312 method: ambient air - determination of asbestos fibres - direct-transfer transmission electron microscopy (TEM) method (ISO, 1995). Quality controls have already be done at a French institute (INRS), which validate our practical experiences. The direct-transfer from MEC's filters on TEM's supports (grids) is a delicate part of the preparation for analysis and requires a lot of trials in the laboratory. IST managed to do proper grid preparations after about two years of development. In addition to the preparation of samples, the micro-analysis (EDX), the micro-diffraction and the morphologic analysis (figure 1.a-c) are also to be mastered. Theses are the three elements, which prove the different features of asbestos identification. The SEM isn't able to associate those three analyses. The TEM is also able to make the difference between artificial and natural fibres that have very similar chemical compositions as well as differentiate types of asbestos. Finally the experiments concluded by IST show that TEM is the best method to quantify and identify asbestos in the air.

ON THE ROLE OF PERIOD-2 IN THE CIRCADIAN AND HOMEOSTATIC REGULATION OF SLEEP

Humans spend one third of their life sleeping, then we could raise the basic question: Why do we sleep? Despite the fact that we still don't fully understand its function, we made much progress in understanding at different levels how sleep is regulated. One model suggests that sleep is regulated by two processes: a homeostatic process that tracks the need for sleep and by a circadian rhythm that determines the preferred time-of-day sleep occurs. At the molecular level circadian rhythms are a property of interlocking transcriptional regula-tors referred to as clock genes. The heterodimeric transcription factors BMAL1::CLOCK/NPAS2 drive the transcription of many target genes including the clock genes Cryptochome1 (Cry1), Cry2, Period1 (Per1), and Per2. The encoded CRY/PER proteins are transcriptional inhibitors of BMAL1::CLOCK/NPAS2 thereby providing negative feedback to their own transcription. These genes seem, however, also involved in sleep homeostasis because the brain expression of clock genes, es-pecially that of Per2, increase as a function of time-spent-awake and because mice lacking clock genes display altered sleep homeostasis. The aim of first part of my doctoral work has been to advance our understanding the link that exists between sleep homeostasis and circadian rhythms investigating a possible mechanism by which sleep deprivation could alter clock gene expression by quantifying DNA-binding of the core-clock genes BMAL1, CLOCK and NPAS2 to their target chromatin loci including the E-box enhancers of the Per2 promoter. We made use of chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) and quantitative poly-merase chain reaction (qPCR) to show that DNA-binding of CLOCK and BMAL1 to their target genes changes as a function of time-of-day in both liver and cerebral cortex. We then performed a 6h sleep deprivation (SD) and observed a significant decrease in DNA-binding of CLOCK and BMAL1 to Dbp. This is consistent with a decrease in Dbp mRNA levels after SD. The DNA-binding of NPAS2 and BMAL1 to Per2 was similarly decreased following SD. However, SD has been previously shown to in-crease Per2 expression in the cortex which seems paradoxical. Our results demonstrate that sleep-wake history can affect the molecular clock machinery directly at the level of the chromatin thereby altering the cortical expression of Dbp and Per2, and likely other targets. However, the precise dy-namic relationship between DNA-binding and mRNA expression, especially for Per2, remains elusive. The second aim of my doctoral work has been to perform an in depth characterization of cir-cadian rhythmicity, sleep architecture, analyze the response to SD in full null-Per2 knock-out (Per2-/-) mice, and Per1-/- mice, as well as their double knock-out offspring (Per1,2-/-) and littermate wildtype (Wt) mice. The techniques used include locomotor activity recording by passive infrared (PIR) sen-sors, EEG/EMG surgery, recording, and analysis, and cerebral cortex extraction and quantification of mRNA levels by qPCR. Under standard LD12:12 conditions, we found that wakefulness onset, as well as the time courses of clock gene expression in the brain and corticosterone plasma levels were ad-vanced by about 2h in Per2-/- mice compared to Wt mice. When released under constant dark condi-tions almost all Per2-/- mice (97%) became arrhythmic immediately. From these observations, we conclude that while Per2-/- mice seem to be able to anticipate dark onset, this does not result from a self-sustained circadian clock. Our results suggest instead that the earlier onset of activity results from a labile, not-self sustained 22h rhythm linked to light onset suggesting the existence of a light-driven rhythm. Analyses of sleep under LD12:12 conditions revealed that in both Per2-/- and Per1,2-/- mice the same sleep phenotypes are observed compared to Wt mice: increased NREM sleep frag-mentation and inability to adequately compensate the loss of NREM sleep. That suggests a possible role of PER2 in sleep consolidation and recovery.

State of genomics and epigenomics research in the perspective of HIV cure.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: One of the seven key scientific priorities identified in the road map on HIV cure research is to 'determine the host mechanisms that control HIV replication in the absence of therapy'. This review summarizes the recent work in genomics and in epigenetic control of viral replication that is relevant for this mission. RECENT FINDINGS: New technologies allow the joint analysis of host and viral transcripts. They identify the patterns of antisense transcription of the viral genome and its role in gene regulation. High-throughput studies facilitate the assessment of integration at the genome scale. Integration site, orientation and host genomic context modulate the transcription and should also be assessed at the level of single cells. The various models of latency in primary cells can be followed using dynamic study designs to acquire transcriptome and proteome data of the process of entry, maintenance and reactivation of latency. Dynamic studies can be applied to the study of transcription factors and chromatin modifications in latency and upon reactivation. SUMMARY: The convergence of primary cell models of latency, new high-throughput quantitative technologies applied to the study of time series and the identification of compounds that reactivate viral transcription bring unprecedented precision to the study of viral latency.