FKBPL: a marker of good prognosis in breast cancer

FK506-binding protein-like (FKBPL) has established roles as an anti-tumor protein, with a therapeutic peptide based on this protein, ALM201, shortly entering phase I/II clinical trials. Here, we evaluated FKBPL's prognostic ability in primary breast cancer tissue, represented on tissue microarrays (TMA) from 3277 women recruited into five independent retrospective studies, using immunohistochemistry (IHC). In a meta-analysis, FKBPL levels were a significant predictor of BCSS; low FKBPL levels indicated poorer breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-1.49, p < 0.001). The prognostic impact of FKBPL remained significant after adjusting for other known prognostic factors (HR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.07-1.45, p = 0.004). For the sub-groups of 2365 estrogen receptor (ER) positive patients and 1649 tamoxifen treated patients, FKBPL was significantly associated with BCSS (HR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.13-1.58, p < 0.001, and HR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.04-1.49, p = 0.02, respectively). A univariate analysis revealed that FKBPL was also a significant predictor of relapse free interval (RFI) within the ER positive patient group, but it was only borderline significant within the smaller tamoxifen treated patient group (HR = 1.32 95% CI 1.05-1.65, p = 0.02 and HR = 1.23 95% CI 0.99-1.54, p = 0.06, respectively). The data suggests a role for FKBPL as a prognostic factor for BCSS, with the potential to be routinely evaluated within the clinic.

Prognostic significance of minichromosome maintenance proteins in breast cancer

A role for the minichromosome maintenance (MCM) proteins in cancer initiation and progression is slowly emerging. Functioning as a complex to ensure a single chromosomal replication per cell cycle, the six family members have been implicated in several neoplastic disease states, including breast cancer. Our study aim to investigate the prognostic significance of these proteins in breast cancer. We studied the expression of MCMs in various datasets and the associations of the expression with clinicopathological parameters. When considered alone, high level MCM4 overexpression was only weakly associated with shorter survival in the combined breast cancer patient cohort (n = 1441, Hazard Ratio = 1.31; 95% Confidence Interval = 1.11-1.55; p = 0.001). On the other hand, when we studied all six components of the MCM complex, we found that overexpression of all MCMs was strongly associated with shorter survival in the same cohort (n = 1441, Hazard Ratio = 1.75; 95% Confidence Interval = 1.31-2.34; p <0.001), suggesting these MCM proteins may cooperate to promote breast cancer progression. Indeed, their expressions were significantly correlated with each other in these cohorts. In addition, we found that increasing number of overexpressed MCMs was associated with negative ER status as well as treatment response. Together, our findings are reproducible in seven independent breast cancer cohorts, with 1441 patients, and suggest that MCM profiling could potentially be used to predict response to treatment and prognosis in breast cancer patients.

Slopes of Avian Species-Area Relationships, Human Population Density, and Environmental Factors

There is increasing interest in how humans influence spatial patterns in biodiversity. One of the most frequently noted and marked of these patterns is the increase in species richness with area, the species-area relationship (SAR). SARs are used for a number of conservation purposes, including predicting extinction rates, setting conservation targets, and identifying biodiversity hotspots. Such applications can be improved by a detailed understanding of the factors promoting spatial variation in the slope of SARs, which is currently the subject of a vigorous debate. Moreover, very few studies have considered the anthropogenic influences on the slopes of SARs; this is particularly surprising given that in much of the world areas with high human population density are typically those with a high number of species, which generates conservation conflicts. Here we determine correlates of spatial variation in the slopes of species-area relationships, using the British avifauna as a case study. Whilst we focus on human population density, a widely used index of human activities, we also take into account (1) the rate of increase in habitat heterogeneity with increasing area, which is frequently proposed to drive SARs, (2) environmental energy availability, which may influence SARs by affecting species occupancy patterns, and (3) species richness. We consider environmental variables measured at both local (10 km x 10 km) and regional (290 km x 290 km) spatial grains, but find that the former consistently provides a better fit to the data. In our case study, the effect of species richness on the slope SARs appears to be scale dependent, being negative at local scales but positive at regional scales. In univariate tests, the slope of the SAR correlates negatively with human population density and environmental energy availability, and positively with the rate of increase in habitat heterogeneity. We conducted two sets of multiple regression analyses, with and without species richness as a predictor. When species richness is included it exerts a dominant effect, but when it is excluded temperature has the dominant effect on the slope of the SAR, and the effects of other predictors are marginal.

Bird diversity and environmental gradients in Britain:a test of the species-energy hypothesis

1. We tested the species diversity-energy hypothesis using the British bird fauna. This predicts that temperature patterns should match diversity patterns. We also tested the hypothesis that the mechanism operates directly through effects of temperature on thermoregulatory loads; this further predicts that seasonal changes in temperature cause matching changes in patterns of diversity, and that species' body mass is influential.

2. We defined four assemblages using migration status (residents or visitors) and season (summer or winter distribution). Records of species' presence/absence in a total of 2362, 10 x 10-km, quadrats covering most of Britain were used, together with a wide selection of habitat, topographic and seasonal climatic data.

3. We fitted a logistic regression model to each species' distribution using the environmental data. We then combined these individual species models mathematically to form a diversity model. Analysis of this composite model revealed that summer temperature was the factor most strongly associated with diversity.

4. Although the species-energy hypothesis was supported, the direct mechanism, predicting an important role for body mass and matching seasonal patterns of change between diversity and temperature, was not supported.

5. However, summer temperature is the best overall explanation for bird diversity patterns in Britain. It is a better predictor of winter diversity than winter temperature. Winter diversity is predicted more precisely from environmental factors than summer diversity.

6. Climate change is likely to influence the diversity of different areas to different extents; for resident species, low diversity areas may respond more strongly as climate change progresses. For winter visitors, higher diversity areas may respond more strongly, while summer visitors are approximately neutral.

Deriving meteorological variables across Africa for the study and control of vector-borne disease:a comparison of remote sensing and spatial interpolation of climate

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the utility of remote sensing (RS) using meteorological satellites sensors and spatial interpolation (SI) of data from meteorological stations, for the prediction of spatial variation in monthly climate across continental Africa in 1990. Information from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and atmospheric moisture. Cold cloud duration (CCD) data derived from the High Resolution Radiometer (HRR) onboard the European Meteorological Satellite programme's (EUMETSAT) Meteosat satellite series were also used as a RS proxy measurement of rainfall. Temperature, atmospheric moisture and rainfall surfaces were independently derived from SI of measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member stations of Africa. These meteorological station data were then used to test the accuracy of each methodology, so that the appropriateness of the two techniques for epidemiological research could be compared. SI was a more accurate predictor of temperature, whereas RS provided a better surrogate for rainfall; both were equally accurate at predicting atmospheric moisture. The implications of these results for mapping short and long-term climate change and hence their potential for the study anti control of disease vectors are considered. Taking into account logistic and analytical problems, there were no clear conclusions regarding the optimality of either technique, but there was considerable potential for synergy.

The validity of critical thinking tests for predicting degree performance: A longitudinal study

This study explored the validity of using critical thinking tests to predict final psychology degree marks over and above that already predicted by traditional admission exams (A-levels). Participants were a longitudinal sample of 109 psychology students from a university in the United Kingdom. The outcome measures were: total degree marks; and end of year marks. The predictor measures were: university admission exam results (A-levels); critical thinking test scores (skills & dispositions); and non-verbal intelligence scores. Hierarchical regressions showed A-levels significantly predicted 10% of the final degree score and the 11-item measure of ‘Inference skills’ from the California Critical Thinking Skills Test significantly predicted an additional 6% of degree outcome variance. The findings from this study should inform decisions about the precise measurement constructs included in aptitude tests used in the higher education admission process.

A sting in the spit: widespread cross-infection of multiple RNA viruses across wild and managed bees

Declining populations of bee pollinators are a cause of concern, with major repercussions for biodiversity loss and food security. RNA viruses associated with honeybees represent a potential threat to other insect pollinators, but the extent of this threat is poorly understood. This study aims to attain a detailed understanding of the current and ongoing risk of emerging infectious disease (EID) transmission between managed and wild pollinator species across a wide range of RNA viruses. Within a structured large-scale national survey across 26 independent sites, we quantify the prevalence and pathogen loads of multiple RNA viruses in co-occurring managed honeybee (Apis mellifera) and wild bumblebee (Bombus spp.) populations. We then construct models that compare virus prevalence between wild and managed pollinators. Multiple RNA viruses associated with honeybees are widespread in sympatric wild bumblebee populations. Virus prevalence in honeybees is a significant predictor of virus prevalence in bumblebees, but we remain cautious in speculating over the principle direction of pathogen transmission. We demonstrate species-specific differences in prevalence, indicating significant variation in disease susceptibility or tolerance. Pathogen loads within individual bumblebees may be high and in the case of at least one RNA virus, prevalence is higher in wild bumblebees than in managed honeybee populations. Our findings indicate widespread transmission of RNA viruses between managed and wild bee pollinators, pointing to an interconnected network of potential disease pressures within and among pollinator species. In the context of the biodiversity crisis, our study emphasizes the importance of targeting a wide range of pathogens and defining host associations when considering potential drivers of population decline.

Prescription contraception use: a cross-sectional population study of psychosocial determinants

Objective: Many forms of contraception are available on prescription only for example, the oral contraceptive pill (OCP) and long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs). In this analysis we aim to identify key determinants of prescription contraceptive use.

Design: Cross-sectional population survey. Data on sociodemographic indices, concerns about the OCP and perceived barriers to access were collected.

Setting: Data set constructed from a representative population-based telephone survey of community dwelling adults in the Republic of Ireland (RoI)

Participants: 1515 women aged between 18 and 45 years

Main outcome measure: Self-reported user of the OCP or LARCs (intrauterine contraception, contraceptive injections or subdermal contraceptive implants) in the previous 12 months.

Results: For at least some of the previous year, 35% had used the OCP and 14% had used LARCs, while 3% had used two or more of these methods. OCP users were significantly younger, more likely to be unmarried and had higher income than non-users. Overall, 68% agreed with the statement ‘that taking a break from long-term use of the contraceptive pill is a good idea’ and 37% agreed with the statement that ‘the OCP has dangerous side effects’ and this was the strongest predictor variable of non-use of the OCP. Intrauterine contraception users were significantly older, more likely to be married and had lower income than non-users. Injections or subdermal contraceptive implant users were significantly younger, less likely to be married, had lower income and were less likely to agree that taking a break from long-term use of the pill is a good idea than non-users.

Conclusions: Prescription contraceptive use is sociodemographically patterned, with LARCs in particular being associated with lower incomes in the RoI. Concerns about the safety of the OCP remain prevalent and are important and modifiable determinants of contraceptive-related behaviour.

Children's use of interventions to learn causal structure

Children aged between 5 and 8 years freely intervened on a three-variable causal system, with their task being to discover whether it was a common-cause structure or one of two causal chains. From 6-7 years, children were able to use information from their interventions to correctly disambiguate the structure of a causal chain. We used a Bayesian model to examine children’s interventions on the system; this showed that with development children became more efficient in producing the interventions needed to disambiguate the causal structure and that the quality of interventions, as measured by their informativeness, improved developmentally. The latter measure was a significant predictor of children’s correct inferences about the causal structure. A second experiment showed that levels of performance were not reduced in a task in which children did not select and carry out interventions themselves, indicating no advantage for self-directed learning. However, children’s performance was not related to intervention quality in these circumstances, suggesting that children learn in a different way when they carry out interventions themselves.

Predictors of numeracy performance in undergraduate psychology, nursing and medical students

Psychology, nursing and medicine are undergraduate degrees that require students to attain a level of numerical competence for graduation. Yet, the numeracy aspect of these courses is often actively disliked and poorly performed. This study's aim was to identify what factors most strongly predict performance in such courses. Three hundred and twenty-five undergraduate students from these three disciplines were given measures of numeracy performance, maths anxiety, maths attitudes and various demographic and educational variables. From these data three separate path analysis models were formed, showing the predictive effects of affective, demographic and educational variables on numeracy performance. Maths anxiety was the strongest affective predictor for psychology and nursing students, with motivation being more important for medical students. Across participant groups, pre-university maths qualifications were the strongest demographic/educational predictor of performance. The results can be used to suggest ways to improve performance in students having difficulty with numeracy-based modules.

The association between subgingival periodontal pathogens and systemic inflammation

Aim To investigate associations between periodontal disease pathogens and levels of systemic inflammation measured by C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods A representative sample of dentate 60-70-year-old men in Northern Ireland had a comprehensive periodontal examination. Men taking statins were excluded. Subgingival plaque samples were analysed by quantitative real time PCR to identify the presence of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Treponema denticola and Tannerella forsythia. High-sensitivity CRP (mg/l) was measured from fasting blood samples. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed using log-transformed CRP concentration as the dependent variable, with the presence of each periodontal pathogen as predictor variables, with adjustment for various potential confounders. Results A total of 518 men (mean age 63.6 SD 3.0 years) were included in the analysis. Multiple regression analysis showed that body mass index (p < 0.001), current smoking (p < 0.01), the detectable presence of P. gingivalis (p < 0.01) and hypertension (p = 0.01), were independently associated with an increased CRP. The detectable presence of P. gingivalis was associated with a 20% (95% confidence interval 4-35%) increase in CRP (mg/l) after adjustment for all other predictor variables. Conclusion In these 60-70-year-old dentate men, the presence of P. gingivalis in subgingival plaque was significantly associated with a raised level of C-reactive protein.

Monitoring of lineage-specific chimaerism allows early prediction of response following donor lymphocyte infusions for relapsed chronic myeloid leukaemia

Donor lymphocyte infusions (DLI) have been shown to enhance the graft-versus-leukaemia (GVL) effect and induce haematological and molecular remission in patients with relapsed CML following allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT). The potent donor cell-mediated cytolysis following DLI may lead to a short period of aplasia before the re-establishment of donor haematopoiesis. The absence of detectable donor cells in patients prior to DLI infusion may result in permanent aplasia in certain patients. We report on four patients who relapsed 1, 3, 6.5 and 7 years post-BMT for chronic phase CML and were treated with DLI from their original BMT donor. Polymorphic short tandem repeats (STRs) were used to assess haematological chimaerism both prior to and following DLI. At the time of relapse, STR-PCR indicated the presence of donor cells in all four patients, at levels ranging from 1-40%. A clinical and molecular response was seen in 4/4 patients following a short period of cytopenia and all patients remain in clinical remission with a follow-up of 2 months-3 years post-DLI. STR-PCR indicated that a response was occurring during the period of pancytopenia when metaphase analysis was unsuccessful. Lineage-specific analysis of the cellular response to DLI was monitored using STR-PCR of peripheral blood (PB) and bone marrow (BM) lymphocyte-enriched fractions and CD2-positive and -negative T cell fractions. In one patient BM and PB CD34-positive and -negative fractions were also assessed. A change in the ratio of donor:recipient cells in the PB lymphocyte fraction was the earliest molecular indication of an anti-leukaemic response. Subsequent conversion to donor chimaerism occurred in the other lineages and the granulocyte fraction was the last lineage to convert. In conclusion, lineage-specific STR-PCR permits detailed monitoring of subtle changes in donor/recipient cell dynamics in specific lineages following DLI during the crucial pancytopenic phase and may be a useful predictor of haematological response to DLI therapy.

An experimental evaluation of prediction models for the mechanical behavior of unreinforced, lime-mortar masonry under compression

This paper contributes to the understanding of lime-mortar masonry strength and deformation (which determine durability and allowable stresses/stiffness in design codes) by measuring the mechanical properties of brick bound with lime and lime-cement mortars. Based on the regression analysis of experimental results, models to estimate lime-mortar masonry compressive strength are proposed (less accurate for hydrated lime (CL90s) masonry due to the disparity between mortar and brick strengths). Also, three relationships between masonry elastic modulus and its compressive strength are proposed for cement-lime; hydraulic lime (NHL3.5 and 5); and hydrated/feebly hydraulic lime masonries respectively.

Disagreement between the experimental results and former mathematical prediction models (proposed primarily for cement masonry) is caused by a lack of provision for the significant deformation of lime masonry and the relative changes in strength and stiffness between mortar and brick over time (at 6 months and 1 year, the NHL 3.5 and 5 mortars are often stronger than the brick). Eurocode 6 provided the best predictions for the compressive strength of lime and cement-lime masonry based on the strength of their components. All models vastly overestimated the strength of CL90s masonry at 28 days however, Eurocode 6 became an accurate predictor after 6 months, when the mortar had acquired most of its final strength and stiffness.

The experimental results agreed with former stress-strain curves. It was evidenced that mortar strongly impacts masonry deformation, and that the masonry stress/strain relationship becomes increasingly non-linear as mortar strength lowers. It was also noted that, the influence of masonry stiffness on its compressive strength becomes smaller as the mortar hydraulicity increases.

HOXB13, RFX6 and prostate cancer risk

A new study shows that HOXB13 is preferentially recruited to the risk allele of a prostate cancer-associated SNP, enhancing the expression of RFX6, a driver of prostate cancer cell migration and predictor of disease progression. The work illustrates how a single risk locus contributes both to prostate cancer incidence and, through functional follow-up, to disease progression.

Forecasting invasions: resource use by mussels informs invasion patterns along the South African coast

Invasive species are often more able to rapidly and efficiently utilise resources than natives, and comparing per capita resource use at different resource densities among invaders and trophically analogous natives could allow for reliable predictions of invasiveness. In South Africa, invasion by the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis has transformed wave-exposed shores, negatively affecting native mussel species. Currently, South Africa is experiencing a second mussel invasion with the recent detection of the South American Semimytilus algosus. We tested per capita uptake of an algal resource by invading M. galloprovincialis, S. algosus, and the native Aulacomya atra at different algal concentrations and temperatures, representing the west and south coasts of South Africa, to examine whether their per capita resource use could be a predictor of their spread and subsequent invasiveness. Regardless of temperature, M. galloprovincialis was the most efficient consumer, significantly reducing algal cells compared to the other species when the resource was presented in both low and high starting densities. Furthermore, these findings aligned with a greater biomass of M. galloprovincialis on the shore in comparison with the other species. Resource use by the new invader S. algosus was dependent on the density of resource and, although this species was efficient at low algal concentrations at cooler temperatures, this pattern broke down at higher algal densities. This was once more reflected in lower biomass in surveys of this species along the cool west coast. We therefore forecast that S. algosus will be become established along the south coast; however, we also predict that M. galloprovincialis will maintain dominance on these shores.