Analysis of contagion from the constant conditional correlation model with Markov regime switching

Over the last decades, the analysis of the transmissions of international nancial events has become the subject of many academic studies focused on multivariate volatility models volatility. The goal of this study is to evaluate the nancial contagion between stock market returns. The econometric approach employed was originally presented by Pelletier (2006), named Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation (RSDC). This methodology involves the combination of Constant Conditional Correlation Model (CCC) proposed by Bollerslev (1990) with Markov Regime Switching Model suggested by Hamilton and Susmel (1994). A modi cation was made in the original RSDC model, the introduction of the GJR-GARCH model formulated in Glosten, Jagannathan e Runkle (1993), on the equation of the conditional univariate variances to allow asymmetric e ects in volatility be captured. The database was built with the series of daily closing stock market indices in the United States (SP500), United Kingdom (FTSE100), Brazil (IBOVESPA) and South Korea (KOSPI) for the period from 02/01/2003 to 09/20/2012. Throughout the work the methodology was compared with others most widespread in the literature, and the model RSDC with two regimes was de ned as the most appropriate for the selected sample. The set of results provide evidence for the existence of nancial contagion between markets of the four countries considering the de nition of nancial contagion from the World Bank called very restrictive. Such a conclusion should be evaluated carefully considering the wide diversity of de nitions of contagion in the literature.

Mudanças de regimes na função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil : uma abordagem utilizando Markov Regime Switching

O presente trabalho busca identificar a ocorrência, duração e probabilidades de transição de diferentes regimes na condução da política monetária no Brasil a partir da implantação do sistema de metas de inflação em 1999. A estimação da função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil é realizada a partir de uma Regra de Taylor forward looking para uma economia aberta, onde utilizamos a metodologia Markov Regime Switching para caracterizar de forma endógena os diferentes regimes de política monetária. Os resultados obtidos indicam a ocorrência de três regimes distintos de política monetária a partir da implantação do sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil. O primeiro regime ocorre durante 21% do período estudado e se caracteriza pela não aderência ao princípio de Taylor e discricionariedade da autoridade monetária, que reage demonstrando maior sensibilidade ao hiato do produto. O segundo regime é o de maior duração, ocorre durante 67% do período estudado, e se caracteriza pela aderência ao princípio de Taylor e equilíbrio nos pesos atribuídos pelo Banco Central tanto ao hiato do produto como ao desvio das expectativas de inflação com relação à meta. Já o terceiro regime ocorre durante 12% do período estudado e se caracteriza não somente pela aderência ao princípio de Taylor, como também por uma maior aversão ao desvio das expectativas de inflação com relação à meta.

Why join a carbon club?: a study of the banks participating in the Brazilian “Business for Climate Platform”

Why do firms that present low levels of (direct) carbon emissions participate in “carbon clubs”, which have the goal of managing and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? In order to answer this question, we collected data from both primary and secondary sources from firms operating in the Brazilian banking sector, which are members of the Businesses for Climate Platform (Plataforma Empresas pelo Clima e EPC). We first looked for answers in the institutional theory and resource based view of the firm (RBV). By confronting the arguments presented by these streams of scientific enquiry with empirical data, we worked on theory testing. In particular, we analyzed the institutional pressures and resources and capabilities of the focus companies, in order to understand the rationales for proactive sustainability management. We found evidences of the arguments presented by both the institutional theory and the RBV. By studying an industry that is not a frequent subject to research on socio-environmental issues e for not being considered of high impact e in an emerging market economy, the research contributes to both the further development of the institutional theory and the advancement of sustainability management in corporations.

An online platform for real-time sensor data collection, visualization, and sharing

Sharing sensor data between multiple devices and users can be^challenging for naive users, and requires knowledge of programming and use of different communication channels and/or development tools, leading to non uniform solutions. This thesis proposes a system that allows users to access sensors, share sensor data and manage sensors. With this system we intent to manage devices, share sensor data, compare sensor data, and set policies to act based on rules. This thesis presents the design and implementation of the system, as well as three case studies of its use.

Hudumia: a platform to support spontaneous volunteers' situational awareness, coordination and safety underemergency scenarios

Spontaneous volunteers always emerge under emergency scenarios and are vital to a successful community response, yet some uncertainty subsists around their role and its inherent acceptance by official entities under emergency scenarios. In our research we have identified that most of the spontaneous volunteers do have none or little support from official entities, hence they end up facing critical problems as situational awareness, safety instructions and guidance, motivation and group organization. We argue that official entities still play a crucial role and should change some of their behaviors regarding spontaneous volunteerism. We aim with this thesis to design a software architecture and a framework in order to implement a solution to support spontaneous volunteerism under emergency scenarios along with a set of guidelines for the design of open information management systems. Together with the collaboration from both citizens and emergency professionals we have been able to attain several important contributions, as the clear identification of the roles taken by both spontaneous volunteers and professionals, the importance of volunteerism in overall community response and the role which open collaborative information management systems have in the community volunteering efforts. These conclusions have directly supported the design guidelines of our software solution proposal. In what concerns to methodology, we first review literature on technologies support to emergencies and how spontaneous volunteers actually challenge these systems. Following, we have performed a field research where we have observed that the emerging of spontaneous volunteer’s efforts imposes new requirements for the design of such systems, which leaded to the creation of a cluster of design guidelines that supported our software solution proposal to address the volunteers’ requirements. Finally we have architected and developed an online open information management tool which has been evaluated via usability engineering methods, usability user tests and heuristic evaluations.

Breadcrumbs: location and context aware mobile platform for story sharing

With the current proliferation of sensor equipped mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets, location aware services are expanding beyond the mere efficiency and work related needs of users, evolving in order to incorporate fun, culture and the social life of users. Today people on the move have more and more connectivity and are expected to be able to communicate with their usual and familiar social networks. That means communications not only with their peers and colleagues, friends and family but also with unknown people that might share their interests, curiosities or happen to use the same social network. Through social networks, location aware blogging, cultural mobile applications relevant information is now available at specific geographical locations and open to feedback and conversations among friends as well as strangers. In fact, nowadays smartphone technologies aloud users to post and retrieve content while on the move, often relating to specific physical landmarks or locations, engaging and being engaged in conversations with strangers as much as their own social network. The use of such technologies and applications while on the move can often lead people to serendipitous discoveries and interactions. Throughout our thesis we are engaging on a two folded investigation: how can we foster and support serendipitous discoveries and what are the best interfaces for it? In fact, to read and write content while on the move is a cognitively intensive task. While the map serves the function of orienting the user, it also absorbs most of the user’s concentration. In order to address this kind of cognitive overload issue with Breadcrumbs we propose a 360 degrees interface that enables the user to find content around them by means of scanning the surrounding space with the mobile device. By using a loose metaphor of a periscope, harnessing the power of the smartphone sensors we designed an interactive interface capable of detecting content around the users and display it in the form of 2 dimensional bubbles which diameter depends on their distance from the users. Users will navigate the space in relation to the content that they are curious about, rather than in relation to the traditional geographical map. Through this model we envisage alleviating a certain cognitive overload generated by having to continuously confront a two dimensional map with the real three dimensional space surrounding the user, but also use the content as a navigational filter. Furthermore this alternative mean of navigating space might bring serendipitous discovery about places that user where not aware of or intending to reach. We hence conclude our thesis with the evaluation of the Breadcrumbs application and the comparison of the 360 degrees interface with a traditional 2 dimensional map displayed on the devise screen. Results from the evaluation are compiled in findings and insights for future use in designing and developing context aware mobile applications.

Thermochronology of the South American platform in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, through apatite fission tracks

The fission-track method (FTM) in apatite was applied to 45 samples collected in the Serra da Mantiqueira (Mantiqueira mountain range), the Serra do Mar (Mar mountain range), regions next to these mountain ranges and the coastal region between Ubatuba and Santos in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, to study the thermochronology of the South American Platform in southeast Brazil and its influence on Santos and Campos basins. The data presented in this work complement the previously presented data on the same region (Tello Saenz et al., 2003. J. S. Am. Earth Sci. 15, 765-774) with 31 new samples analyzed. The weighted mean of the corrected ages from high Mantiqueira (around 1000 m), (121 +/- 6) Ma, coincides with the South Atlantic opening. The fact that its thermal history starts at a relatively low temperature (similar to 80 degrees C) suggests that the age of similar to 120 Ma would be the formation age of Serra da Mantiqueira due to a rapid pulse, in which tracks had no time to be retained at the closure temperature, that is similar to 120 degrees C. The Serra do Mar presents a more complicated thermal history, with several reactivations indicated by the changes in the slope of its cooling curve. The thermal histories obtained in the regions next to these mountain ranges are compatible with the results mentioned above. The Santos Basin has unconformities that agree with changes in the slope thermal histories of the studied region. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rheological, Mechanical and Adhesive Properties of Surfactant-Containing Systems Designed as a Potential Platform for Topical Drug Delivery

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Novel zero-current-switching PWM converters

This paper presents a new family of pulsewidth-modulated (PWM) converters, featuring soft commutation of the semiconductors at zero current (ZC) in the transistors and zero voltage (ZV) in the rectifiers, Besides operating at constant frequency and with reduced commutation losses, these new converters have output characteristics similar to the hard-switching-PWM counterpart, which means that there is no circulating reactive energy that would cause large conduction losses, the new family of zero-current-switching (ZCS)-PWM converters is suitable for high-power applications using insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBT's). The advantages of the new ZCS-PWM boast converter employing IGBT's, rated at 1.6 kW and operating at 20 kHz, are presented, This new ZCS operation can reduce the average total power dissipation in the semiconductors practically by half, when compared with the hard-switching method, This new ZCS-PWM boost converter is suitable for high-power applications using Ie;BT's in power-factor correction, the principle of operation, theoretical analysis, and experimental results of the new ZCS-PWM boost converter are provided in this paper to verify the performance of this new family of converters.

Power Factor Correction Boost Converter Based on the Three-State Switching Cell

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Candida spp.: manual identification (reference method) and automated identification (Vitek system platform)

Yeasts are becoming a common cause of nosocomial fungal infections that affect immunocompromised patients. Such infections can evolve into sepsis, whose mortality rate is high. This study aimed to evaluate the viability of Candida species identification by the automated system Vitek-Biomerieux (Durham, USA). Ninety-eight medical charts referencing the Candida spp. samples available for the study were retrospectively analyzed. The system Vitek-Biomerieux with Candida identification card is recommended for laboratory routine use and presents 80.6% agreement with the reference method. By separate analysis of species, 13.5% of C. parapsilosis samples differed from the reference method, while the Vitek system wrongly identified them as C. tropicalis, C. lusitaneae or as Candida albicans. C. glabrata presented a discrepancy of only one sample (25%), and was identified by Vitek as C. parapsilosis. C. guilliermondii also differed in only one sample (33.3%), being identified as Candida spp. All C. albicans, C. tropicalis and C. lusitaneae samples were identified correctly.

Switching control of sympathetic activity from forebrain to hindbrain in chronic dehydration

We investigated the mechanisms responsible for increased blood pressure and sympathetic nerve activity (SNA) caused by 2-3 days dehydration (DH) both in vivo and in situ preparations. In euhydrated (EH) rats, systemic application of the AT(1) receptor antagonist Losartan and subsequent pre-collicular transection (to remove the hypothalamus) significantly reduced thoracic (t) SNA. In contrast, in DH rats, Losartan, followed by pre-collicular and pontine transections, failed to reduce tSNA, whereas transection at the medulla-spinal cord junction massively reduced tSNA. In DH but not EH rats, selective inhibition of the commissural nucleus tractus solitarii (cNTS) significantly reduced tSNA. Comparable data were obtained in both in situ and in vivo (anaesthetized/conscious) rats and suggest that following chronic dehydration, the control of tSNA transfers from supra-brainstem structures (e. g. hypothalamus) to the medulla oblongata, particularly the cNTS. As microarray analysis revealed up-regulation of AP1 transcription factor JunD in the dehydrated cNTS, we tested the hypothesis that AP1 transcription factor activity is responsible for dehydration-induced functional plasticity. When AP1 activity was blocked in the cNTS using a viral vector expressing a dominant negative FosB, cNTS inactivation was ineffective. However, tSNA was decreased after pre-collicular transection, a response similar to that seen in EHrats. Thus, the dehydration-induced switch in control of tSNA from hypothalamus to cNTS seems to be mediated via activation of AP1 transcription factors in the cNTS. If AP1 activity is blocked in the cNTS during dehydration, sympathetic activity control reverts back to forebrain regions. This unique reciprocating neural structure-switching plasticity between brain centres emphasizes the multiple mechanisms available for the adaptive response to dehydration.

Bouchardia rosea, a vanishing brachiopod species of the Brazilian platform: taphonomy, historical ecology and conservation paleobiology

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Upper-mantle seismic anisotropy from SKS splitting in the South American stable platform: A test of asthenospheric flow models beneath the lithosphere

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)