Biased representation of disturbance rates in the roadside sampling frame in boreal forests: implications for monitoring design

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is the principal source of data to inform researchers about the status of and trend for boreal forest birds. Unfortunately, little BBS coverage is available in the boreal forest, where increasing concern over the status of species breeding there has increased interest in northward expansion of the BBS. However, high disturbance rates in the boreal forest may complicate roadside monitoring. If the roadside sampling frame does not capture variation in disturbance rates because of either road placement or the use of roads for resource extraction, biased trend estimates might result. In this study, we examined roadside bias in the proportional representation of habitat disturbance via spatial data on forest “loss,” forest fires, and anthropogenic disturbance. In each of 455 BBS routes, the area disturbed within multiple buffers away from the road was calculated and compared against the area disturbed in degree blocks and BBS strata. We found a nonlinear relationship between bias and distance from the road, suggesting forest loss and forest fires were underrepresented below 75 and 100 m, respectively. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance was overrepresented at distances below 500 m and underrepresented thereafter. After accounting for distance from road, BBS routes were reasonably representative of the degree blocks they were within, with only a few strata showing biased representation. In general, anthropogenic disturbance is overrepresented in southern strata, and forest fires are underrepresented in almost all strata. Similar biases exist when comparing the entire road network and the subset sampled by BBS routes against the amount of disturbance within BBS strata; however, the magnitude of biases differed. Based on our results, we recommend that spatial stratification and rotating panel designs be used to spread limited BBS and off-road sampling effort in an unbiased fashion and that new BBS routes be established where sufficient road coverage exists.

The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability

The impact of systematic model errors on a coupled simulation of the Asian Summer monsoon and its interannual variability is studied. Although the mean monsoon climate is reasonably well captured, systematic errors in the equatorial Pacific mean that the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is rather poorly represented in the GCM. A system of ocean-surface heat flux adjustments is implemented in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in order to reduce the systematic biases. In this version of the GCM, the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly the lag-lead relationships in which weak monsoons precede the peak of El Nino. In part this is related to changes in the characteristics of El Nino, which has a more realistic evolution in its developing phase. A stronger ENSO amplitude in the new model version also feeds back to further strengthen the teleconnection. These results have important implications for the use of coupled models for seasonal prediction of systems such as the monsoon, and suggest that some form of flux correction may have significant benefits where model systematic error compromises important teleconnections and modes of interannual variability.

Air-earth current density measurements at Lerwick; implications for seasonality in the global electric circuit

Atmospheric electricity measurements were made at Lerwick Observatory in the Shetland Isles (60°09′N, 1°08′W) during most of the 20th century. The Potential Gradient (PG) was measured from 1926 to 84 and the air-earth conduction current (Jc) was measured during the final decade of the PG measurements. Daily Jc values (1978–1984) observed at 15 UT are presented here for the first time, with independently-obtained PG measurements used to select valid data. The 15 UT Jc (1978–1984) spans 0.5–9.5 pA/m2, with median 2.5 pA/m2; the columnar resistance at Lerwick is estimated as 70 PΩm2. Smoke measurements confirm the low pollution properties of the site. Analysis of the monthly variation of Lerwick Jc data shows that winter (DJF) Jc is significantly greater than the summer (JJA) Jc by 20%. The Lerwick atmospheric electricity seasonality differs from the global lightning seasonality, but Jc has a similar seasonal phasing to that observed in Nimbostratus clouds globally, suggesting a role for non-thunderstorm rain clouds in the seasonality of the global circuit.

Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.

The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management

A review of the implications of climate change for freshwater resources, based on Chapter 4 of Working Group 2, IPCC.

Pb-210-Ra-226 and Ra-228-Th-232 systematics in young arc lavas: implications for magma degassing and ascent rates

New data show that island arc rocks have (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) ratios which range from as low as 0.24 up to 2.88. In contrast, (Ra-22S/Th-232) appears always within error of I suggesting that the large Ra-226-excesses observed in arc rocks were generated more than 30 years ago. This places a maximum estimate on melt ascent velocities of around 4000 m/year and provides further confidence that the Ra-226 excesses reflect deep (source) processes rather than shallow level alteration or seawater contamination. Conversely, partial melting must have occurred more than 30 years prior to eruption. The Pb-210 deficits are most readily explained by protracted magma degassing. Using published numerical models, the data suggest that degassing occurred continuously for periods up to several decades just prior to eruption but no link with eruption periodicity was found. Longer periods are required if degassing is discontinuous, less than 100% efficient or if magma is recharged or stored after degassing. The long durations suggest much of this degassing occurs at depth with implications for the formation of hydrothermal and copper-porphyry systems. A suite of lavas erupted in 1985-1986 from Sangeang Api volcano in the Sunda arc are characterised by deficits of Pb-210 relative to Ra-226 from which 6-8 years of continuous Rn-222 degassing would be inferred from recent numerical models. These data also form a linear (Pb-210)/Pb-(Ra-226)/Pb array which might be interpreted as a 71-year isochron. However, the array passes through the origin suggesting displacement downwards from the equiline in response to degassing and so the slope of the array is inferred not to have any age significance. Simple modelling shows that the range of (Ra-226)/Pb ratios requires thousands of years to develop consistent with differentiation occurring in response to cooling at the base of the crust. Thus, degassing post-dated, and was not responsible for magma differentiation. The formation, migration and extraction of gas bubbles must be extremely efficient in mafic magma whereas the higher viscosity of more siliceous magmas retards the process and can lead to Pb-210 excesses. A possible negative correlation between (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) and SO2 emission rate requires further testing but may have implications for future eruptions. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Annual textural banding in Holocene estuarine silts, Severn Estuary Levels (SW Britain): patterns, cause and implications

A high-resolution textural study has been made of laminated and banded estuarine silts exposed intertidally at representative localities and horizons in the Holocene deposits of the Severn Estuary Levels. The laminae, on a submillimetre to millimetre scale, are sharp-based, graded couplets formed of a lower silty part overlain by a finer-textured clayey element. The centimetre- to decimetre-scale banding is formed of laminae in alternating, gradually intergrading sets of relatively coarse and relative fine-grained examples. At outcrop in the field, the banding is recognizable because the coarse sets prove to be recessive to varying degrees under the influence of weathering and current action. Independent evidence at two localities points toward an annual origin for the banding; at a third it arose during part of what appears to have been a relatively short period. Quantified physical arguments suggest that the textural banding is a response of suspended fine sediment to marked seasonal changes in sea temperature and windiness. The banded silts occur in four distinct stratigraphical contexts and record high deposition rates (order 0.01-0.1 m/yr). Because physical factors determine their textures, the silts potentially afford insights in all contexts into aspects of changing Holocene climatic conditions. In one context, the thickness of the bands points to high (order 0.01-0.1 m/yr) but comparatively short-lived (order 10s-100s yrs) rates of relative water-level rise. In the others, however, the banding has no implications for sea-level behaviour, and simply records gross environmental disequilibrium, for example, the recovery of mudflats/marshes after an erosional episode. Similarly, because on account of their rapid accumulation the banded silts preserve animal and human tracks and trackways especially well, they provide an archive of animal and human behaviour in the area during the Holocene.

Calcrete profile development in quaternary alluvial sequences, southeast Spain: Implications for using calcretes as a basis for landform chronologies

A detailed study of the morphology and micro-morphology of Quaternary alluvial calcrete profiles from the Sorbas Basin shows that calcretes may be morphologically simple or complex. The 'simple' profiles reflect pedogenesis occurring after alluvial terrace formation and consist of a single pedogenic horizon near the land surface. The 'complex' profiles reflect the occurrence of multiple calcrete events during terrace sediment aggradation and further periods of pedogenesis after terrace formation. These 'complex' calcrete profiles are consequently described as composite profiles. The exact morphology of the composite profiles depends upon: (1) the number of calcrete-forming events occurring during terrace sediment aggradation; (2) the amount of sediment accretion that occurs between each period of calcrete formation; and (3) the degree of pedogenesis after terrace formation. Simple calcrete profiles are most useful in establishing landform chronologies because they represent a single phase of pedogenesis after terrace formation. Composite profiles are more problematic. Pedogenic calcretes that form within them may inherit carbonate from calcrete horizons occurring lower down in the terrace sediments. In addition erosion may lead to the exhumation of older calcretes within the terrace sediment. Calcrete 'inheritance' may make pedogenic horizons appear more mature than they actually are and produce horizons containing carbonate embracing a range of ages. Calcrete exhumation exposes calcrete horizons whose morphology and radiometric ages are wholly unrelated to terrace surface age. Composite profiles are, therefore, only suitable for chronological studies if the pedogenic horizon capping the terrace sequence can be clearly distinguished from earlier calcrete-forming events. Thus, a detailed morphological/micro-morphological study is required before any chronological study is undertaken. This is the only way to establish whether particular calcrete profiles are suitable for dating purposes. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

A groove-ploughing theory for the production of mega-scale glacial lineations, and implications for ice-stream mechanics

Mega-scale glacial lineations (MSGLs) are longitudinally aligned corrugations (ridge-groove structures 6-100 km long) in sediment produced subglacially. They are indicators of fast flow and a common signature of ice-stream beds. We develop a qualitative theory that accounts for their formation, and use numerical modelling, and observations of ice-stream beds to provide supporting evidence. Ice in contact with a rough (scale of 10-10(3) m) bedrock surface will mimic the form of the bed. Because of flow acceleration and convergence in ice-stream onset zones, the ice-base roughness elements experience transverse strain, transforming them from irregular bumps into longitudinally aligned keels of ice protruding downwards. Where such keels slide across a soft sedimentary bed, they plough through the sediments, carving elongate grooves, and deforming material up into intervening ridges. This explains MSGLs and has important implications for ice-stream mechanics. Groove ploughing provides the means to acquire new lubricating sediment and to transport large volumes of it downstream. Keels may provide basal drag in the force budget of ice streams, thereby playing a role in flow regulation and stability We speculate that groove ploughing permits significant ice-stream widening, thus facilitating high-magnitude ice discharge.

Exploring the spatial relations between soil properties and electro-magnetic induction (EMI) and the implications for management

The relations between soil electrical conductivity (ECa) and top- and sub-soil physical properties were examined for an arable field in England. The correlation coefficients between ECa and the soil particle size fractions were large and their cross variograms showed that the coregionalization was also strong. The coregionalization was stronger for the subsoil properties than for the topsoil, the reverse to the correlation coefficients. The relations between ECa and some soil properties, such as clay and water content, appear complex and emphasize that a map of ECa cannot substitute for sampling the soil.

Human exposure modelling for chemical risk assessment: a review of current approaches and research and policy implications

A wide variety of exposure models are currently employed for health risk assessments. Individual models have been developed to meet the chemical exposure assessment needs of Government, industry and academia. These existing exposure models can be broadly categorised according to the following types of exposure source: environmental, dietary, consumer product, occupational, and aggregate and cumulative. Aggregate exposure models consider multiple exposure pathways, while cumulative models consider multiple chemicals. In this paper each of these basic types of exposure model are briefly described, along with any inherent strengths or weaknesses, with the UK as a case study. Examples are given of specific exposure models that are currently used, or that have the potential for future use, and key differences in modelling approaches adopted are discussed. The use of exposure models is currently fragmentary in nature. Specific organisations with exposure assessment responsibilities tend to use a limited range of models. The modelling techniques adopted in current exposure models have evolved along distinct lines for the various types of source. In fact different organisations may be using different models for very similar exposure assessment situations. This lack of consistency between exposure modelling practices can make understanding the exposure assessment process more complex, can lead to inconsistency between organisations in how critical modelling issues are addressed (e.g. variability and uncertainty), and has the potential to communicate mixed messages to the general public. Further work should be conducted to integrate the various approaches and models, where possible and regulatory remits allow, to get a coherent and consistent exposure modelling process. We recommend the development of an overall framework for exposure and risk assessment with common approaches and methodology, a screening tool for exposure assessment, collection of better input data, probabilistic modelling, validation of model input and output and a closer working relationship between scientists and policy makers and staff from different Government departments. A much increased effort is required is required in the UK to address these issues. The result will be a more robust, transparent, valid and more comparable exposure and risk assessment process. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.