Trimestralización y conciliación de magnitudes económicas : una ampliación del método Chow-Lin

Una de las herramientas estadísticas más importantes para el seguimiento y análisis de la evolución de la actividad económica a corto plazo es la disponibilidad de estimaciones de la evolución trimestral de los componentes del PIB, en lo que afecta tanto a la oferta como a la demanda. La necesidad de disponer de esta información con un retraso temporal reducido hace imprescindible la utilización de métodos de trimestralización que permitan desagregar la información anual a trimestral. El método más aplicado, puesto que permite resolver este problema de manera muy elegante bajo un enfoque estadístico de estimador óptimo, es el método de Chow-Lin. Pero este método no garantiza que las estimaciones trimestrales del PIB en lo que respecta a la oferta y a la demanda coincidan, haciendo necesaria la aplicación posterior de algún método de conciliación. En este trabajo se desarrolla una ampliación multivariante del método de Chow-Lin que permite resolver el problema de la estimación de los valores trimestrales de manera óptima, sujeta a un conjunto de restricciones. Una de las aplicaciones potenciales de este método, que hemos denominado método de Chow-Lin restringido, es precisamente la estimación conjunta de valores trimestrales para cada uno de los componentes del PIB en lo que afecta tanto a la demanda como a la oferta condicionada a que ambas estimaciones trimestrales del PIB sean iguales, evitando así la necesidad de aplicar posteriormente métodos de conciliación

Prognostic value of continuous eeg monitoring during therapeutic hypothermia in patients with coma after cardiac arrest

INTRODUCTION: Continuous EEG (cEEG) is increasingly used to monitor brain function in neuro-ICU patients. However, its value in patients with coma after cardiac arrest (CA), particularly in the setting of therapeutic hypothermia (TH), is only beginning to be elucidated. The aim of this study was to examine whether cEEG performed during TH may predict outcome. METHODS: From April 2009 to April 2010, we prospectively studied 34 consecutive comatose patients treated with TH after CA who were monitored with cEEG, initiated during hypothermia and maintained after rewarming. EEG background reactivity to painful stimulation was tested. We analyzed the association between cEEG findings and neurologic outcome, assessed at 2 months with the Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). RESULTS: Continuous EEG recording was started 12 ± 6 hours after CA and lasted 30 ± 11 hours. Nonreactive cEEG background (12 of 15 (75%) among nonsurvivors versus none of 19 (0) survivors; P < 0.001) and prolonged discontinuous "burst-suppression" activity (11 of 15 (73%) versus none of 19; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with mortality. EEG seizures with absent background reactivity also differed significantly (seven of 15 (47%) versus none of 12 (0); P = 0.001). In patients with nonreactive background or seizures/epileptiform discharges on cEEG, no improvement was seen after TH. Nonreactive cEEG background during TH had a positive predictive value of 100% (95% confidence interval (CI), 74 to 100%) and a false-positive rate of 0 (95% CI, 0 to 18%) for mortality. All survivors had cEEG background reactivity, and the majority of them (14 (74%) of 19) had a favorable outcome (CPC 1 or 2). CONCLUSIONS: Continuous EEG monitoring showing a nonreactive or discontinuous background during TH is strongly associated with unfavorable outcome in patients with coma after CA. These data warrant larger studies to confirm the value of continuous EEG monitoring in predicting prognosis after CA and TH.

Monitoring nitrogen nutrition in cotton

Both N excess and deficiency may affect cotton yield and quality. It would therefore be useful to base the N management fertilization on the monitoring of the nutritional status. This study investigated the correlations among the following determination methods of the N nutritional status of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L., var. Latifolia): chlorophyll readings (SPAD-502®, Minolta), specific-ion nitrate meter (Nitrate Meter C-141, Horiba-Cardy®), and laboratory analysis (conventional foliar diagnosis). Samples were taken weekly from two weeks before flowering to the fifth week after the first flower. The experiment was conducted on the Fazenda Santa Tereza, Itapeva, State of São Paulo, Brazil. The crop was fertilized with 40 kg ha-1 N at planting and 0, 30, 60, 90, and 120 kg ha-1 of side-dressed N. The range of leaf N contents reported as adequate for samples taken 80-90 days after plant emergence (traditional foliar diagnosis) may be used as reference from the beginning of flowering when the plant is not stressed. Specific-ion nitrate meter readings can be used as a nutritional indicator of cotton nutrition from one week after pinhead until the third week of flowering. In this case, plants are well-nourished when readings exceed 8,000 mg L-1 NO3-. The chlorophyll meter can also be used to estimate the nutritional status of cotton from the third week of flowering. In this case the readings should be above 48 in well-nourished plants.

Monitoring drug therapy.

Drug development has improved over recent decades, with refinements in analytical techniques, population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modelling and simulation, and new biomarkers of efficacy and tolerability. Yet this progress has not yielded improvements in individualization of treatment and monitoring, owing to various obstacles: monitoring is complex and demanding, many monitoring procedures have been instituted without critical assessment of the underlying evidence and rationale, controlled clinical trials are sparse, monitoring procedures are poorly validated and both drug manufacturers and regulatory authorities take insufficient account of the importance of monitoring. Drug concentration and effect data should be increasingly collected, analyzed, aggregated and disseminated in forms suitable for prescribers, along with efficient monitoring tools and evidence-based recommendations regarding their best use. PK-PD observations should be collected for both novel and established critical drugs and applied to observational data, in order to establish whether monitoring would be suitable. Methods for aggregating PK-PD data in systematic reviews should be devised. Observational and intervention studies to evaluate monitoring procedures are needed. Miniaturized monitoring tests for delivery at the point of care should be developed and harnessed to closed-loop regulated drug delivery systems. Intelligent devices would enable unprecedented precision in the application of critical treatments, i.e. those with life-saving efficacy, narrow therapeutic margins and high interpatient variability. Pharmaceutical companies, regulatory agencies and academic clinical pharmacologists share the responsibility of leading such developments, in order to ensure that patients obtain the greatest benefit and suffer the least harm from their medicines.

Monitoring Children with Risk Factors. 2008

The Iowa EHDI High-Risk Monitoring Protocol is based on the Joint Committee on Infant Hearing 2007 position statement. Emphasis is placed on follow-up as deemed appropriate by the primary health care provider and audiologist. The Iowa protocol describes the follow-up process for children with risk factors.

Prospective monitoring of a CD4+ CD25high CD45RO+ CD127high T-cell population after first kidney transplantation following thymoglobulin or basiliximab induction

Background: Recent data have suggested that a population of CD4+ CD25high T cells, phenotypically characterized by the expression of CD45RO and CD127, is significantly expanded in stable liver and kidney transplant recipients and represents alloreactive T cells. Induction therapies may have an impact on this alloreactive T cell population. In this study, we prospectively analyzed CD4+ CD25high CD45RO+ CD127high T cells after induction with either thymoglobulin or basiliximab. Patients and methods: A total of twenty-seven kidney transplant recipients were prospectively enrolled; 14 received thymoglobulin induction followed by a 4-day course of steroids with tacrolimus and mycophenolate mofetil («thymo group»), and 13 received basiliximab induction followed by standard triple immunosuppression (tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil and prednisone) («BSX group»). Phenotypical analysis by flow cytometry of the expression of CD25, CD45RO and CD127 on peripheral CD4+ T cells was performed at 0, 3 and 6 months after transplantation. Twenty-four healthy subjects (HS) were studied as controls. Results: There were no differences in baseline characteristics between the groups; at 6 months, patient survival (100%), graft survival (100%), serum creatinine (thymo group versus BSX group: 129 versus 125 micromol/l) and acute rejection (2/14 versus 2/13) were not significantly different. Thymo induction produced a prolonged CD4 T cell depletion. As compared to pre-transplantation values, an expansion of the alloreactive T cell population was observed at 3 months in both thymo (mean: from 6.38% to 14.72%) and BSX (mean: from 8.01% to 18.42%) groups. At 6 months, the alloreactive T cell population remained significantly expanded in the thymo group (16.92 ± 2.87%) whereas it tended to decrease in the BSX group (10.22 ± 1.38%). Conclusion: Overall, our results indicate that the expansion of alloreactive T cells occurs rapidly after transplantation in patients receiving either thymo or BSX induction. Whether differences at later timepoints or whether different IS regimens may modify this alloreactive population remains to be studied.

Optimal generalized quantum measurements for arbitrary spin systems

Positive-operator-valued measurements on a finite number of N identically prepared systems of arbitrary spin J are discussed. Pure states are characterized in terms of Bloch-like vectors restricted by a SU(2J+1) covariant constraint. This representation allows for a simple description of the equations to be fulfilled by optimal measurements. We explicitly find the minimal positive-operator-valued measurement for the N=2 case, a rigorous bound for N=3, and set up the analysis for arbitrary N.

Optimal Usage of De-Icing Chemicals when Scraping Ice, November 2003

One of the challenges that faces the winter maintainer is how much chemical to apply to the road under given conditions. Insufficient chemical can lead to the road surface becoming slick, and the road thus becoming unsafe. In all likelihood, additional applications will have to be made, requiring additional effort and use of resources. However, too much chemical can also be bad. While an excess of chemical will ensure (in most circumstances) that a safe road condition is achieved, it may also result in a substantial waste of chemical (with associated costs for this waste) and in ancillary damage to the road itself and to the surrounding environment. Ideally, one should apply what might be termed the “goldilocks” amount of chemical to the road: Not too much, and not too little, but just right. Of course the reality of winter maintenance makes achieving the “goldilocks” application rate somewhat of a fairy tale. In the midst of a severe storm, when conditions are poor and getting worse, the last thing on a plow operator’s mind is a minute adjustment in the amount of chemical being applied to the road. However, there may be considerable benefit and substantial savings to be achieved if chemical applications can be optimized to some degree, so that wastage is minimized without compromising safety. The goal of this study was to begin to develop such information through a series of laboratory studies in which the force needed to scrape ice from concrete blocks was measured, under a variety of chemical application conditions.

Routine therapeutic drug monitoring in patients treated with 10-360 mg/day citalopram

From data collected during routine TDM, plasma concentrations of citalopram (CIT) and its metabolites demethylcitalopram (DCIT) and didemethylcitalopram (DDCIT) were measured in 345 plasma samples collected in steady-state conditions. They were from 258 patients treated with usual doses (20-60 mg/d) and from patients medicated with 80-360 mg/d CIT. Most patients had one or several comedications, including other antidepressants, antipsychotics, lithium, anticonvulsants, psychostimulants and somatic medications. Dose-corrected CIT plasma concentrations (C/D ratio) were 2.51 +/- 2.25 ng mL-1 mg-1 (n = 258; mean +/- SD). Patients >65 years had significantly higher dose-corrected CIT plasma concentrations (n = 56; 3.08 +/- 1.35 ng mL-1 mg-1) than younger patients (n = 195; 2.35 +/- 2.46 ng mL-1 mg-1) (P = 0.03). CIT plasma concentrations in the generally recommended dose range were [mean +/- SD, (median)]: 57 +/- 64 (45) ng/mL (10-20 mg/d; n = 64), 117 +/- 95 (91) ng/mL (21-60 mg/d; n = 96). At higher than usual doses, the following concentrations of CIT were measured: 61-120 mg/d CIT, 211 +/- 103 (190) ng/mL (n = 93); 121-200 mg/d: 339 +/- 143 (322) ng/mL (n = 70); 201-280 mg/d: 700 +/- 408 (565) ng/mL (n = 18); 281-360 mg/d: 888 +/- 620 (616) ng/mL (n = 4). When only one sample per patient (at the highest daily dose if repeated dosages) is considered, there is a linear and significant correlation (n = 48, r = 0.730; P < 0.001) between daily dose (10-200 mg/d) and CIT plasma concentrations. In experiments with dogs, DDCIT was reported to affect the QT interval when present at concentrations >300 ng/mL. In this study, DDCIT concentration reached 100 ng/mL in a patient treated with 280 mg/d CIT. Twelve other patients treated with 140-320 mg/d CIT had plasma concentrations of DDCIT within the range 52-73 ng/mL. In a subgroup comprised of patients treated with > or =160 mg/d CIT and with CIT plasma concentrations < or =300 ng/mL, and patients treated with < or =200 mg/d CIT and CIT plasma concentrations > or = 600 ng/mL, the enantiomers of CIT and DCIT were also analyzed. The highest S-CIT concentration measured in this subgroup was 327 ng/mL in a patient treated with 140 mg/d CIT, but the highest S-CIT concentration (632 ng/mL) was measured in patient treated with 360 mg/d CIT. In conclusion, there is a highly linear correlation between CIT plasma concentrations and CIT doses, well above the usual dose range.

Optimal growth strategies when mortality and production rates are size-dependent

Pontryagin's maximum principle from optimal control theory is used to find the optimal allocation of energy between growth and reproduction when lifespan may be finite and the trade-off between growth and reproduction is linear. Analyses of the optimal allocation problem to date have generally yielded bang-bang solutions, i.e. determinate growth: life-histories in which growth is followed by reproduction, with no intermediate phase of simultaneous reproduction and growth. Here we show that an intermediate strategy (indeterminate growth) can be selected for if the rates of production and mortality either both increase or both decrease with increasing body size, this arises as a singular solution to the problem. Our conclusion is that indeterminate growth is optimal in more cases than was previously realized. The relevance of our results to natural situations is discussed.

Monitoring tumor antigen specific T-cell responses in cancer patients and phase I clinical trials of peptide-based vaccination.

Numerous phase I and II clinical trials testing the safety and immunogenicity of various peptide vaccine formulations based on CTL-defined tumor antigens in cancer patients have been reported during the last 7 years. While specific T-cell responses can be detected in a variable fraction of immunized patients, an even smaller but significant fraction of these patients have objective tumor responses. Efficient therapeutic vaccination should aim at boosting naturally occurring antitumor T- and B-cell responses and at sustaining a large number of tumor antigen specific and fully functional effector T cells at tumor sites. Recent progress in our ability to quantitatively and qualitatively monitor tumor antigen specific CD8 T-cell responses will greatly help in making rapid progress in this field.