Evaluation of the accuracy of multilevel analysis parameter estimates for intra-cluster correlation in correlated binary data

Many studies in biostatistics deal with binary data. Some of these studies involve correlated observations, which can complicate the analysis of the resulting data. Studies of this kind typically arise when a high degree of commonality exists between test subjects. If there exists a natural hierarchy in the data, multilevel analysis is an appropriate tool for the analysis. Two examples are the measurements on identical twins, or the study of symmetrical organs or appendages such as in the case of ophthalmic studies. Although this type of matching appears ideal for the purposes of comparison, analysis of the resulting data while ignoring the effect of intra-cluster correlation has been shown to produce biased results.^ This paper will explore the use of multilevel modeling of simulated binary data with predetermined levels of correlation. Data will be generated using the Beta-Binomial method with varying degrees of correlation between the lower level observations. The data will be analyzed using the multilevel software package MlwiN (Woodhouse, et al, 1995). Comparisons between the specified intra-cluster correlation of these data and the estimated correlations, using multilevel analysis, will be used to examine the accuracy of this technique in analyzing this type of data. ^

Book Review: Public Service Media and Policy in Europe

Much has happened in the past fifty years, and the broadcasting system and in fact the entire media landscape have changed in many significant ways. Yet, the debate on the role of public service media and the involvement of the state in them still perseveres. It has indeed been reinvigorated due to the tectonic shifts in media production, distribution, access and consumption caused by digital technologies in general, and the Internet in particular. The gist of the debates has however curiously remained almost the same and is still focused on a set of economic arguments that call for state intervention in public media, and not unimportantly, on the various political interpretations of these economic arguments. In Europe, the debate has another essential core too, as Public Service Broadcasting (PSB) has been traditionally entrusted to serve some higher goals intrinsically related to key democratic and cultural processes. Accordingly, PSB in Western Europe has developed as the core media institution at the national level and has become deeply embedded in many facets of the nation’s economic, political, social and cultural life. Against the backdrop of PSB’s history, its vital tasks in society, as well as the dramatic changes brought about by the digitally networked environment, the question on the future of PSB and its transition into Public Service Media (PSM) is very interesting, to say the least, and highly challenging at the same time. The book by Karen Donders, Public Service Media and Policy in Europe (Palgrave, 2012), makes an essential contribution to these complex debates, and more importantly, adds some new value to an otherwise saturated discourse.

Seasonal Deuterium Excess in a Tien Shan Ice Core: Influence of Moisture Transport and Recycling in Central Asia

Stable water isotope (delta(18)O, deltaD) data from a high elevation (5100 masl) ice core recovered from the Tien Shan Mountains, Kyrgyzstan, display a seasonal cycle in deuterium excess (d = deltaD - 8* delta(18)O) related to changes in the regional hydrologic cycle during 1994 - 2000. While there is a strong correlation (r(2) = 0.98) between delta(18)O and dD in the ice core samples, the regression slope (6.9) and mean d value (23.0) are significantly different than the global meteoric water line values. The resulting time-series ice core d profile contains distinct winter maxima and summer minima, with a yearly d amplitude of similar to 15 - 20parts per thousand. Local-scale processes that may affect d values preserved in the ice core are not consistent with the observed seasonal variability. Data from Central Asian monitoring sites in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) have similar seasonal d changes. We suggest that regional-scale hydrological conditions, including seasonal changes in moisture source, transport, and recycling in the Caspian/ Aral Sea region, are responsible for the observed spatial and temporal d variability.

A 12,000 Year Record of Explosive Volcanism in the Siple Dome Ice Core, West Antarctica

Air mass trajectories in the Southern Hemisphere provide a mechanism for transport to and deposition of volcanic products on the Antarctic ice sheet from local volcanoes and from tropical and subtropical volcanic centers. This study extends the detailed record of Antarctic, South American, and equatorial volcanism over the last 12,000 years using continuous glaciochemical series developed from the Siple Dome A (SDMA) ice core, West Antarctica. The largest volcanic sulfate spike ( 280 mu g/L) occurs at 5881 B. C. E. Other large signals with unknown sources are observed around 325 B. C. E. ( 270 mu g/L) and 2818 B. C. E. ( 191 mu g/L). Ages of several large equatorial or Southern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions are synchronous with many sulfate peaks detected in the SDMA volcanic ice chemistry record. The microprobe "fingerprinting'' of glass shards in the SDMA core points to the following Antarctic volcanic centers as sources of tephra found in the SDMA core: Balenny Island, Pleiades, Mount Berlin, Mount Takahe, and Mount Melbourne as well as Mount Hudson and possibly Mount Burney volcanoes of South America. Identified volcanic sources provide an insight into the poorly resolved transport history of volcanic products from source volcanoes to the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Variability in Accumulation Rates from GPR Profiling on the West Antarctic Plateau

lsochronal layers in firn detected with ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and dated using results from ice-core analyses are used to calculate accumulation rates along a 100 km across-flow profile in West Antarctica. Accumulation rates are shown to be highly variable over short distances. Elevation measurements from global positioning system surveys show that accumulation rates derived from shallow horizons correlate well with surface undulations, which implies that wind redistribution of snow is the leading cause of this variability. Temporal changes in accumulation rate over 25-185 year intervals are smoothed to along-track length scales comparable to surface undulations in order to identify trends in accumulation that are likely related to changes in climate. Results show that accumulation rates along this profile have decreased in recent decades, which is consistent with core-derived time series of annual accumulation rates measured at the two ends of the radar profile. These results suggest that temporal variability observed in accumulation-rate records from ice cores and GPR profiles can be obscured by spatial influences, although it is possible to resolve temporal signals if the effects of local topography and ice flow are quantified and removed.

Oxygen Isotopic and Soluble Ionic Composition of a Shallow Firn Core, Inilchek Glacier, Central Tien Shan

Oxygen isotopic and soluble ionic measurements made on snow-pit (2 in depth) and firn-core (12.4 m depth samples recovered from the accumulation zone 5100 m) of Inilchek glacier 43degrees N, 79degrees E) provide information on recent (1992-98) climatic and environmental conditions in the central Tien Shan region of central Asia. The combined 14.4 m snow-pit/firn-core profile lies within the firn zone, arid contains only one observed melt feature (10 m temperature = - 12 degreesC), Although some post-depositional attenuation of the sub-seasonal delta(18)O record is possible, annual cycles are apparent throughout the isotope profile. We therefore use the preserved delta(18)O record to establish a depth/age scale for the core. Mean delta(18)O values for the entire core and for summer periods are consistent with delta(18)O/temperature observations, and suggest the delta(18)O record provides a means to reconstruct past changes in summer surface temperature at the site. Major-ion (Na(+), K(+), Mg(2+), Ca(2+), NH(4)(+), Cl(-), NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-)) data from the core demonstrate the dominant influence of dust deposition on the soluble chemistry at the site, arid indicate significant interannual variability in atmospheric-dust loading during the 1900s. Anthropogenic impacts oil NH(4)(+) concentrations are observed at the site, and suggest a summer increase in atmospheric NH(4)(+) that may be related to regional agricultural (nitrogen-rich fertilizer use activities.

A 700-Year Record of Atmospheric Circulation Developed from the Law Dome Ice Core, East Antarctica

A 700-year, high-resolution, multivariate ice core record from Dome Summit South (DSS) (66degrees46'S, 112degrees48'E; 1370 m), Law Dome, is used to investigate sea level pressure (SLP) variability in the region of East Antarctica. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the first EOF (LDEOF1) of the combined glaciochemical, oxygen isotope ratio, and accumulation rate record from DSS represents most of the variability in sea salt seen in the record. LDEOF1 is positively correlated (at least 95% confidence level) to instrumental June mean SLP across most of East Antarctica. Over the last 700 years, LDEOF1 levels at Law Dome were the highest during the nineteenth century, suggesting an increase in intensification of winter circulation during this period. The Law Dome DSS oxygen isotope ratio series also indicates that the nineteenth century had the coldest winters of any century in the record. In contrast, LDEOF1 levels were the lowest at Law Dome during the eighteenth century, suggesting a significant shift in the patterns and/or intensity of East Antarctic atmospheric circulation between the eighteenth and the nineteenth centuries. The LDEOF1 sea salt record is characterized by significant decadal-scale variability with a strong 25-year periodic structure.

Sea Level Pressure Variability Over the Southern Indian Ocean Inferred from a Glaciochemical Record in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica

A 250-year, high-resolution, multivariate ice core record from LGB65 (70degrees50'07"S, 77degrees04'29"E; 1850 m asl), Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL), is used to investigate sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the southern Indian Ocean (SIO). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the first EOF (EOF1) of the glaciochemical record from LGB65 represents most of the variability in sea salt throughout the 250-year record. EOF1 is negatively correlated (95% confidence level and higher) to instrumental mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at Kerguelen and New Amsterdam islands, SIO. On the basis of comparison with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, strong correlations were found between sea-salt variations and a quasi-stationary low that lies to the north of Prydz Bay, SIO. Comparison with a 250-year-long summer transpolar index (STPI) inferred from sub-Antarctic tree ring records reveals strong coherency. Decadal-scale SLP variability over SIO suggests shifting of the polar vortex. Prominent decadal-scale deepening of the southern Indian Ocean low (SIOL) exists circa 1790, 1810, 1835, 1860, 1880, 1900, and 1940 A. D., continuously after the 1970s, and prominent weakening circa 1750, 1795, 1825, 1850, 1870, 1890, 1910, and 1955 A. D. The LGB65 sea-salt record is characterized by significant decadal-scale variability with a strong similar to21-year periodic structure (99.9% confidence level). The relationship between LGB65 sea salt and solar irradiance changes shows that this periodicity is possibly the solar Hale cycle ( 22 years).

NGRIP CH4 concentration from 120 to 10 kyr before present and its relation to a δ15N temperature reconstruction from the same ice core

During the last glacial cycle, Greenland temperature showed many rapid temperature variations, the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. The past atmospheric methane concentration closely followed these temperature variations, which implies that the warmings recorded in Greenland were probably hemispheric in extent. Here we substantially extend and complete the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) methane record from the Preboreal Holocene (PB) back to the end of the last interglacial period with a mean time resolution of 54 yr. We relate the amplitudes of the methane increases associated with DO events to the amplitudes of the local Greenland NGRIP temperature increases derived from stable nitrogen isotope (δ15N) measurements, which have been performed along the same ice core (Kindler et al., 2014). We find the ratio to oscillate between 5 parts per billion (ppb) per °C and 18 ppb °C−1 with the approximate frequency of the precessional cycle. A remarkably high ratio of 25.5 ppb °C−1 is reached during the transition from the Younger Dryas (YD) to the PB. Analysis of the timing of the fast methane and temperature increases reveals significant lags of the methane increases relative to NGRIP temperature for DO events 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15, 19, and 20. These events generally have small methane increase rates and we hypothesize that the lag is caused by pronounced northward displacement of the source regions from stadial to interstadial. We further show that the relative interpolar concentration difference (rIPD) of methane is about 4.5% for the stadials between DO events 18 and 20, which is in the same order as in the stadials before and after DO event 2 around the Last Glacial Maximum. The rIPD of methane remains relatively stable throughout the full last glacial, with a tendency for elevated values during interstadial compared to stadial periods.

Temperature and precipitation signal in two Alpine ice cores over the period 1961-2001

Water stable isotope ratios and net snow accumulation in ice cores are commonly interpreted as temperature or precipitation proxies. However, only in a few cases has a direct calibration with instrumental data been attempted. In this study we took advantage of the dense network of observations in the European Alpine region to rigorously test the relationship of the annual and seasonal resolved proxy data from two highly resolved ice cores with local temperature and precipitation. We focused on the time period 1961–2001 with the highest amount and quality of meteorological data and the minimal uncertainty in ice core dating (±1 year). The two ice cores were retrieved from the Fiescherhorn glacier (northern Alps, 3900 m a.s.l.), and Grenzgletscher (southern Alps, 4200 m a.s.l.). A parallel core from the Fiescherhorn glacier allowed assessing the reproducibility of the ice core proxy data. Due to the orographic barrier, the two flanks of the Alpine chain are affected by distinct patterns of precipitation. The different location of the two glaciers therefore offers a unique opportunity to test whether such a specific setting is reflected in the proxy data. On a seasonal scale a high fraction of δ18O variability was explained by the seasonal cycle of temperature (~60% for the ice cores, ~70% for the nearby stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation – GNIP). When the seasonality is removed, the correlations decrease for all sites, indicating that factors other than temperature such as changing moisture sources and/or precipitation regimes affect the isotopic signal on this timescale. Post-depositional phenomena may additionally modify the ice core data. On an annual scale, the δ18O/temperature relationship was significant at the Fiescherhorn, whereas for Grenzgletscher this was the case only when weighting the temperature with precipitation. In both cases the fraction of interannual temperature variability explained was ~20%, comparable to the values obtained from the GNIP stations data. Consistently with previous studies, we found an altitude effect for the δ18O of −0.17‰/100 m for an extended elevation range combining data of the two ice core sites and four GNIP stations. Significant correlations between net accumulation and precipitation were observed for Grenzgletscher during the entire period of investigation, whereas for Fiescherhorn this was the case only for the less recent period (1961–1977). Local phenomena, probably related to wind, seem to partly disturb the Fiescherhorn accumulation record. Spatial correlation analysis shows the two glaciers to be influenced by different precipitation regimes, with the Grenzgletscher reflecting the characteristic precipitation regime south of the Alps and the Fiescherhorn accumulation showing a pattern more closely linked to northern Alpine stations.

Analyzing diffuse scattering with supercomputers

Two new approaches to quantitatively analyze diffuse diffraction intensities from faulted layer stacking are reported. The parameters of a probability-based growth model are determined with two iterative global optimization methods: a genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The results are compared with those from a third global optimization method, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm [Storn & Price (1997). J. Global Optim. 11, 341–359]. The algorithm efficiencies in the early and late stages of iteration are compared. The accuracy of the optimized parameters improves with increasing size of the simulated crystal volume. The wall clock time for computing quite large crystal volumes can be kept within reasonable limits by the parallel calculation of many crystals (clones) generated for each model parameter set on a super- or grid computer. The faulted layer stacking in single crystals of trigonal three-pointedstar- shaped tris(bicylco[2.1.1]hexeno)benzene molecules serves as an example for the numerical computations. Based on numerical values of seven model parameters (reference parameters), nearly noise-free reference intensities of 14 diffuse streaks were simulated from 1280 clones, each consisting of 96 000 layers (reference crystal). The parameters derived from the reference intensities with GA, PSO and DE were compared with the original reference parameters as a function of the simulated total crystal volume. The statistical distribution of structural motifs in the simulated crystals is in good agreement with that in the reference crystal. The results found with the growth model for layer stacking disorder are applicable to other disorder types and modeling techniques, Monte Carlo in particular.

Spring temperature variability and eutrophication history inferred from sedimentary pigments in the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie, north-eastern Poland, AD 1907–2008

Varved lake sediments are excellent natural archives providing quantitative insights into climatic and environmental changes at very high resolution and chronological accuracy. However, due to the multitude of responses within lake ecosystems it is often difficult to understand how climate variability interacts with other environmental pressures such as eutrophication, and to attribute observed changes to specific causes. This is particularly challenging during the past 100 years when multiple strong trends are superposed. Here we present a high-resolution multi-proxy record of sedimentary pigments and other biogeochemical data from the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie (Masurian Lake District, north-eastern Poland, 54°N–22°E, 120 m a.s.l.) spanning AD 1907 to 2008. Lake Żabińskie exhibits biogeochemical varves with highly organic late summer and winter layers separated by white layers of endogenous calcite precipitated in early summer. The aim of our study is to investigate whether climate-driven changes and anthropogenic changes can be separated in a multi-proxy sediment data set, and to explore which sediment proxies are potentially suitable for long quantitative climate reconstructions. We also test if convoluted analytical techniques (e.g. HPLC) can be substituted by rapid scanning techniques (visible reflectance spectroscopy VIS-RS; 380–730 nm). We used principal component analysis and cluster analysis to show that the recent eutrophication of Lake Żabińskie can be discriminated from climate-driven changes for the period AD 1907–2008. The eutrophication signal (PC1 = 46.4%; TOC, TN, TS, Phe-b, high TC/CD ratios total carotenoids/chlorophyll-a derivatives) is mainly expressed as increasing aquatic primary production, increasing hypolimnetic anoxia and a change in the algal community from green algae to blue-green algae. The proxies diagnostic for eutrophication show a smooth positive trend between 1907 and ca 1980 followed by a very rapid increase from ca. 1980 ± 2 onwards. We demonstrate that PC2 (24.4%, Chl-a-related pigments) is not affected by the eutrophication signal, but instead is sensitive to spring (MAM) temperature (r = 0.63, pcorr < 0.05, RMSEP = 0.56 °C; 5-yr filtered). Limnological monitoring data (2011–2013) support this finding. We also demonstrate that scanning visible reflectance spectroscopy (VIS-RS) data can be calibrated to HPLC-measured chloropigment data and be used to infer concentrations of sedimentary Chl-a derivatives {pheophytin a + pyropheophytin a}. This offers the possibility for very high-resolution (multi)millennial-long paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Eco-Evolutionary Spatial Dynamics. Rapid Evolution and Isolation Explain Food Web Persistence

One of the current challenges in evolutionary ecology is understanding the long-term persistence of contemporary-evolving predator–prey interactions across space and time. To address this, we developed an extension of a multi-locus, multi-trait eco-evolutionary individual-based model that incorporates several interacting species in explicit landscapes. We simulated eco-evolutionary dynamics of multiple species food webs with different degrees of connectance across soil-moisture islands. A broad set of parameter combinations led to the local extinction of species, but some species persisted, and this was associated with (1) high connectance and omnivory and (2) ongoing evolution, due to multi-trait genetic variability of the embedded species. Furthermore, persistence was highest at intermediate island distances, likely because of a balance between predation-induced extinction (strongest at short island distances) and the coupling of island diversity by top predators, which by travelling among islands exert global top-down control of biodiversity. In the simulations with high genetic variation, we also found widespread trait evolutionary changes indicative of eco-evolutionary dynamics. We discuss how the ever-increasing computing power and high-resolution data availability will soon allow researchers to start bridging the in vivo–in silico gap.

Zazen meditation and no-task resting EEG compared with LORETA intracortical source localization

Meditation is a self-induced and willfully initiated practice that alters the state of consciousness. The meditation practice of Zazen, like many other meditation practices, aims at disregarding intrusive thoughts while controlling body posture. It is an open monitoring meditation characterized by detached moment-to-moment awareness and reduced conceptual thinking and self-reference. Which brain areas differ in electric activity during Zazen compared to task-free resting? Since scalp electroencephalography (EEG) waveforms are reference-dependent, conclusions about the localization of active brain areas are ambiguous. Computing intracerebral source models from the scalp EEG data solves this problem. In the present study, we applied source modeling using low resolution brain electromagnetic tomography (LORETA) to 58-channel scalp EEG data recorded from 15 experienced Zen meditators during Zazen and no-task resting. Zazen compared to no-task resting showed increased alpha-1 and alpha-2 frequency activity in an exclusively right-lateralized cluster extending from prefrontal areas including the insula to parts of the somatosensory and motor cortices and temporal areas. Zazen also showed decreased alpha and beta-2 activity in the left angular gyrus and decreased beta-1 and beta-2 activity in a large bilateral posterior cluster comprising the visual cortex, the posterior cingulate cortex and the parietal cortex. The results include parts of the default mode network and suggest enhanced automatic memory and emotion processing, reduced conceptual thinking and self-reference on a less judgmental, i.e., more detached moment-to-moment basis during Zazen compared to no-task resting.

Fire in ice: two millennia of boreal forest fire history from the Greenland NEEM ice core

Biomass burning is a major source of greenhouse gases and influences regional to global climate. Pre-industrial fire-history records from black carbon, charcoal and other proxies provide baseline estimates of biomass burning at local to global scales spanning millennia, and are thus useful to examine the role of fire in the carbon cycle and climate system. Here we use the specific biomarker levoglucosan together with black carbon and ammonium concentrations from the North Greenland Eemian (NEEM) ice cores (77.49° N, 51.2° W; 2480 m a.s.l) over the past 2000 years to infer changes in boreal fire activity. Increases in boreal fire activity over the periods 1000–1300 CE and decreases during 700–900 CE coincide with high-latitude NH temperature changes. Levoglucosan concentrations in the NEEM ice cores peak between 1500 and 1700 CE, and most levoglucosan spikes coincide with the most extensive central and northern Asian droughts of the past millennium. Many of these multi-annual droughts are caused by Asian monsoon failures, thus suggesting a connection between low- and high-latitude climate processes. North America is a primary source of biomass burning aerosols due to its relative proximity to the Greenland Ice Cap. During major fire events, however, isotopic analyses of dust, back trajectories and links with levoglucosan peaks and regional drought reconstructions suggest that Siberia is also an important source of pyrogenic aerosols to Greenland.