A capture-recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 x 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture-recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture-recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

Reproducibility of a short semi-quantitative food group questionnaire and its performance in estimating nutrient intake compared with a 7-day diet diary in the Million Women Study

Objectives: To assess the short- and long-term reproducibility of a short food group questionnaire, and to compare its performance for estimating nutrient intakes in comparison with a 7-day diet diary. Design: Participants for the reproducibility study completed the food group questionnaire at two time points, up to 2 years apart. Participants for the performance study completed both the food group questionnaire and a 7-day diet diary a few months apart. Reproducibility was assessed by kappa statistics and percentage change between the two questionnaires; performance was assessed by kappa statistics, rank correlations and percentages of participants classified into the same and opposite thirds of intake. Setting: A random sample of participants in the Million Women Study, a population-based prospective study in the UK. Subjects: In total, 12 221 women aged 50-64 years. Results: in the reproducibility study, 75% of the food group items showed at least moderate agreement for all four time-point comparisons. Items showing fair agreement or worse tended to be those where few respondents reported eating them more than once a week, those consumed in small amounts and those relating to types of fat consumed. Compared with the diet diary, the food group questionnaire showed consistently reasonable performance for the nutrients carbohydrate, saturated fat, cholesterol, total sugars, alcohol, fibre, calcium, riboflavin, folate and vitamin C. Conclusions: The short food group questionnaire used in this study has been shown to be reproducible over time and to perform reasonably well for the assessment of a number of dietary nutrients.

The influence of larval density, food availability and habitat longevity on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

Despite long-standing interest in the forms and mechanisms of density dependence, these are still imperfectly understood. However, in a constant environment an increase in density must reduce per capita resource availability, which in turn leads to reduced survival, fecundity and somatic growth rate. Here we report two population experiments examining the density dependent responses under controlled conditions of an important indicator species, Chironomus riparius. The first experiment was run for 35 weeks and was started at low density with replicate populations being fed three different rations. Increased ration reduced generation time and increased population growth rate (pgr) but had no effect on survival, fecundity and female body weight in the first generation. In the second generation there was a six-fold increase in generation time, presumably due to the greatly reduced per capita resource availability as the estimated initial densities of the second generation were 300 times greater than the first. Juvenile survival to emergence, fecundity, adult body weight and pgr declined by 90%, 75%, 35% and 99%, respectively. These large between-generation effects may have obscured the effects of the threefold variation in ration, as only survival to emergence significantly increased with ration in the second generation. These results suggest that some chironomid larvae survive a reduction in resource availability by growing more slowly. In the ephemeral habitats sometimes occupied by C. riparius, the effects of population density may depend crucially on the longevity of the environment. A second experiment was therefore performed to measure pgr from six different starting densities over an eight-week period. The relationship between pgr and density was concave, viewed from above. At densities above 16 larvae per cm(2), less than 1% of the population emerged and no offspring were produced. Under the conditions of experiment 2 - an 8-week habitat lifespan carrying capacity was estimated as 8 larvae per cm(2).

Nutrient gene interactions in lipid metabolism

Purpose of review To summarize recent findings relating to the impact of dietary fat composition on whole body lipid metabolism, and common gene variants on the blood lipid response to dietary fat change. Recent findings In recent years a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of polyunsaturated fat (PUFA) intake on the regulation of transcription factors involved in lipogenesis and fatty acid and lipoprotein metabolism has emerged. The evidence is suggestive of a greater potency of the long chain n-3 PUFA eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), and in particular their oxidative products, relative to n-6 Pi In the area of nutrigenetics a number of common gene variants have been identified which may be important determinants of the blood lipid response to altered dietary fat composition. However, confirmation of associations in independent cohorts, and an understanding of the size effect of individual or combinations of genotypes, is often lacking. Summary Although in the future, genotyping holds the potential as a public health tool to target and personalize dietary advice, nutrigenetics is a relatively new science, and further research is needed to address the existing inconsistencies and knowledge gaps.

Effects of restricted water availability and increased temperature on the grain filling, drying and quality of winter wheat

Experiments in controlled environments examined the effects of the timing and severity of drought, and increased temperature, on grain development of Hereward winter wheat. Environmental effects on grain specific weight, protein content, Hagberg Falling Number, SDS-sedimentation volume, and sulphur content were also studied. Drought and increased temperature applied before the end of grain filling shortened the grain filling period and reduced grain yield, mean grain weight and specific weight. Grain filling was most severely affected by drought between days 1-14 after anthesis. Protein content was increased by stresses before the end of grain growth, because nitrogen harvest index was less severely affected than was dry matter harvest index. Hagberg Falling Number was increased to the greatest extent by stresses applied 15-28 days after anthesis. Treatment effects on grain sulphur content were similar to those on protein content, such that N:S ratio was not significantly affected by drought nor temperature stresses. The effects of restricted water on grain yield and quality were linearly related to soil moisture between 44 and about 73% field capacity (FC) from days 15-28. Drought stress (but not temperature stress) before the end of grain filling decreased SDS-sedimentation volume relative to drought applied later. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gene-nutrient interactions in the metabolic syndrome: single nucleotide polymorphisms in ADIPOQ and ADIPOR1 interact with plasma saturated fatty acids to modulate insulin resistance

Background: Progression of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is determined by genetic and environmental factors. Gene-environment interactions may be important in modulating the susceptibility to the development of MetS traits. Objective: Gene-nutrient interactions were examined in MetS subjects to determine interactions between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the adiponectin gene (ADIPOQ) and its receptors (ADIPOR1 and ADIPOR2) and plasma fatty acid composition and their effects on MetS characteristics. Design: Plasma fatty acid composition, insulin sensitivity, plasma adiponectin and lipid concentrations, and ADIPOQ, ADIPOR1, and ADIPOR2 SNP genotypes were determined in a cross-sectional analysis of 451 subjects with the MetS who participated in the LIPGENE (Diet, Genomics, and the Metabolic Syndrome: an Integrated Nutrition, Agro-food, Social, and Economic Analysis) dietary intervention study and were repeated in 1754 subjects from the LIPGENE-SU.VI.MAX (SUpplementation en VItamines et Mineraux AntioXydants) case-control study (http://www.ucd.ie/lipgene). Results: Single SNP effects were detected in the cohort. Triacylglycerols, nonesterified fatty acids, and waist circumference were significantly different between genotypes for 2 SNPs (rs266729 in ADIPOQ and rs10920533 in ADIPOR1). Minor allele homozygotes for both of these SNPs were identified as having degrees of insulin resistance, as measured by the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, that were highly responsive to differences in plasma saturated fatty acids (SFAs). The SFA-dependent association between ADIPOR1 rs10920533 and insulin resistance was replicated in cases with MetS from a separate independent study, which was an association not present in controls. Conclusions: A reduction in plasma SFAs could be expected to lower insulin resistance in MetS subjects who are minor allele carriers of rs266729 in ADIPOQ and rs10920533 in ADIPOR1. Personalized dietary advice to decrease SFA consumption in these individuals may be recommended as a possible therapeutic measure to improve insulin sensitivity. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.

ACC2 gene polymorphisms, metabolic syndrome, and gene-nutrient interactions with dietary fat.

Acetyl-CoA carboxylase β (ACC2) plays a key role in fatty acid synthesis and oxidation pathways. Disturbance of these pathways is associated with impaired insulin responsiveness and metabolic syndrome (MetS). Gene-nutrient interactions may affect MetS risk. This study determined the relationship between ACC2 polymorphisms (rs2075263, rs2268387, rs2284685, rs2284689, rs2300453, rs3742023, rs3742026, rs4766587, and rs6606697) and MetS risk, and whether dietary fatty acids modulate this in the LIPGENE-SU.VI.MAX study of MetS cases and matched controls (n = 1754). Minor A allele carriers of rs4766587 had increased MetS risk (OR 1.29 [CI 1.08, 1.58], P = 0.0064) compared with the GG homozygotes, which may in part be explained by their increased body mass index (BMI), abdominal obesity, and impaired insulin sensitivity (P < 0.05). MetS risk was modulated by dietary fat intake (P = 0.04 for gene-nutrient interaction), where risk conferred by the A allele was exacerbated among individuals with a high-fat intake (>35% energy) (OR 1.62 [CI 1.05, 2.50], P = 0.027), particularly a high intake (>5.5% energy) of n-6 polyunsaturated fat (PUFA) (OR 1.82 [CI 1.14, 2.94], P = 0.01; P = 0.05 for gene-nutrient interaction). Saturated and monounsaturated fat intake did not modulate MetS risk. Importantly, we replicated some of these findings in an independent cohort. In conclusion, the ACC2 rs4766587 polymorphism influences MetS risk, which was modulated by dietary fat, suggesting novel gene-nutrient interactions.

A nutrient increment method for reducing bias in global biogeochemical models

Assimilation of physical variables into coupled physical/biogeochemical models poses considerable difficulties. One problem is that data assimilation can break relationships between physical and biological variables. As a consequence, biological tracers, especially nutrients, are incorrectly displaced in the vertical, resulting in unrealistic biogeochemical fields. To prevent this, we present the idea of applying an increment to the nutrient field within a data assimilating model to ensure that nutrient-potential density relationships are maintained within a water column during assimilation. After correcting the nutrients, it is assumed that other biological variables rapidly adjust to the corrected nutrient fields. We applied this method to a 17 year run of the 2° NEMO ocean-ice model coupled to the PlankTOM5 ecosystem model. Results were compared with a control with no assimilation, and with a model with physical assimilation but no nutrient increment. In the nutrient incrementing experiment, phosphate distributions were improved both at high latitudes and at the equator. At midlatitudes, assimilation generated unrealistic advective upwelling of nutrients within the boundary currents, which spread into the subtropical gyres resulting in more biased nutrient fields. This result was largely unaffected by the nutrient increment and is probably due to boundary currents being poorly resolved in a 2° model. Changes to nutrient distributions fed through into other biological parameters altering primary production, air-sea CO2 flux, and chlorophyll distributions. These secondary changes were most pronounced in the subtropical gyres and at the equator, which are more nutrient limited than high latitudes.

Resource availability and the persistence of seed-eating bird populations in agricultural landscapes – a mechanistic modelling approach

1. Reductions in resource availability, associated with land-use change and agricultural intensification in the UK and Europe, have been linked with the widespread decline of many farmland bird species over recent decades. However, the underlying ecological processes which link resource availability and population trends are poorly understood. 2. We construct a spatial depletion model to investigate the relationship between the population persistence of granivorous birds within the agricultural landscape and the temporal dynamics of stubble field availability, an important source of winter food for many of those species. 3. The model is capable of accurately predicting the distribution of a given number of finches and buntings amongst patches of different stubble types in an agricultural landscape over the course of a winter and assessing the relative value of different landscapes in terms of resource availability. 4. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model is relatively robust to estimates of energetic requirements, search efficiency and handling time but that daily seed survival estimates have a strong influence on model fit. Understanding resource dynamics in agricultural landscapes is highlighted as a key area for further research. 5. There was a positive relationship between the predicted number of bird days supported by a landscape over-winter and the breeding population trend for yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella, a species for which survival has been identified as the primary driver of population dynamics, but not for linnet Carduelis cannabina, a species for which productivity has been identified as the primary driver of population dynamics. 6. Synthesis and applications. We believe this model can be used to guide the effective delivery of over-winter food resources under agri-environment schemes and to assess the impacts on granivorous birds of changing resource availability associated with novel changes in land use. This could be very important in the future as farming adapts to an increasingly dynamic trading environment, in which demands for increased agricultural production must be reconciled with objectives for environmental protection, including biodiversity conservation.

Gene-nutrient interactions with dietary fat modulate the association between genetic variation of the ACSL1 gene and metabolic syndrome

Long-chain acyl CoA synthetase 1 (ACSL1) plays an important role in fatty acid metabolism and triacylglycerol (TAG) synthesis. Disturbance of these pathways may result in dyslipidemia and insulin resistance, hallmarks of the metabolic syndrome (MetS). Dietary fat is a key environmental factor that may interact with genetic determinants of lipid metabolism to affect MetS risk. We investigated the relationship between ACSL1 polymorphisms (rs4862417, rs6552828, rs13120078, rs9997745, and rs12503643) and MetS risk and determined potential interactions with dietary fat in the LIPGENE-SU.VI.MAX study of MetS cases and matched controls (n = 1,754). GG homozygotes for rs9997745 had increased MetS risk {odds ratio (OR) 1.90 [confidence interval (CI) 1.15, 3.13]; P = 0.01}, displayed elevated fasting glucose (P = 0.001) and insulin concentrations (P = 0.002) and increased insulin resistance (P = 0.03) relative to the A allele carriers. MetS risk was modulated by dietary fat, whereby the risk conferred by GG homozygosity was abolished among individuals consuming either a low-fat (<35% energy) or a high-PUFA diet (>5.5% energy). In conclusion, ACSL1 rs9997745 influences MetS risk, most likely via disturbances in fatty acid metabolism, which was modulated by dietary fat consumption, particularly PUFA intake, suggesting novel gene-nutrient interactions.

Effects of ammonia treatment and undegradable protein supplementation on nutrient digestion of sheep fed on wheat straw based diets.

A study was conducted to investigate the effects of wheat straw ammonisation and supplementation with a rumen undegradable protein (UDP) source on nutrient digestion and nitrogen balance by lambs while diets were supplemented with kibbled carob pods as energy source. Ammonisation increased the crude protein content of wheat straw by nearly 100% and decreased the contents of neutral detergent fibre and acid detergent fibre by 7% and 1.7% respectively. Treating the straw with ammonia resulted in significant (P<0.01) increase in nitrogen (N) intake and intakes of organic matter (OM) and dry matter (DM) tended toward significance (P<0.1). The UDP source had no effect (P>0.05) on DM and OM intakes but resulted in an increase (P<0.05) of N intakes. Both, ammonization and UDP supplementation increased (P<0.01) the DM, OM and N digestibility. In conclusion, the results of this study suggest that ammonisation and UDP supplementation is a practical dietary manipulation option to improve the nutritional status of ruminants fed on roughage-based diets.