The debt, the stock market and the state-owned enterprises. The sources of chaos on the Chinese financial markets. OSW Commentary NUMBER 201/16.03.2016

The government’s extensive programme for stimulating the economy has enabled China to maintain high economic growth after the global financial crisis in 2008. However, this success has come at the price of a number of negative economic phenomena and the consequences they have had are the major challenge for the government today. The vast programme of investments in infrastructure, construction and fixed assets, which has been the main source of economic growth over the past few years, has caused a rapid increase in China’s debt from 158% of GDP in 2007 to 282% in 2014. Along with the local governments in charge of implementing the programme, the Chinese sector of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been heavily burdened by the stimulation policy. The sector’s profitability has fallen, its indebtedness has increased and management problems have been revealed.

Factors influencing the number needed to excise: excision rates of pigmented lesions by general practitioners

Objective: To identify doctor and patient characteristics associated with excision of benign versus malignant pigmented skin lesions. Design, setting and participants: Retrospective audit of data on 4741 pigmented skin lesions excised from November 1998 to February 2000 by 468 general practitioners (39% response rate) from 223 practices in Perth, WA. (The data used were from the baseline period of a randomised controlled trial of a diagnostic aid for pigmented skin lesions.) Main outcome measure: The number needed to treat (NNT), defined as the number of pigmented lesions needed to be excised to identify one melanoma, in relation to demographic characteristics of GPs and patients. Results: Relatively more benign lesions were excised per melanoma (NNT = 83) in the youngest patients (aged 10-19 years) compared with the oldest (aged greater than or equal to 70) (NNT = 11) (P [trend]

Better prediction of protein contact number using a support vector regression analysis of amino acid sequence

Background: Protein tertiary structure can be partly characterized via each amino acid's contact number measuring how residues are spatially arranged. The contact number of a residue in a folded protein is a measure of its exposure to the local environment, and is defined as the number of C-beta atoms in other residues within a sphere around the C-beta atom of the residue of interest. Contact number is partly conserved between protein folds and thus is useful for protein fold and structure prediction. In turn, each residue's contact number can be partially predicted from primary amino acid sequence, assisting tertiary fold analysis from sequence data. In this study, we provide a more accurate contact number prediction method from protein primary sequence. Results: We predict contact number from protein sequence using a novel support vector regression algorithm. Using protein local sequences with multiple sequence alignments (PSI-BLAST profiles), we demonstrate a correlation coefficient between predicted and observed contact numbers of 0.70, which outperforms previously achieved accuracies. Including additional information about sequence weight and amino acid composition further improves prediction accuracies significantly with the correlation coefficient reaching 0.73. If residues are classified as being either contacted or non-contacted, the prediction accuracies are all greater than 77%, regardless of the choice of classification thresholds. Conclusion: The successful application of support vector regression to the prediction of protein contact number reported here, together with previous applications of this approach to the prediction of protein accessible surface area and B-factor profile, suggests that a support vector regression approach may be very useful for determining the structure-function relation between primary sequence and higher order consecutive protein structural and functional properties.

Does nephron number matter in the development of kidney disease?

The total number of nephrons in normal human kidneys varies over a 10-fold range. This variation in total nephron number leads us to question whether low nephron number increases the risk of renal disease in adulthood. This review considers the available evidence in humans linking low nephron number/reduced nephron endowment and the susceptibility to renal disease. Total nephron number in humans has been directly correlated with birth weight and inversely correlated with age, mean glomerular volume, and hypertension. Low nephron number may be the result of suboptimal nephrogenesis during kidney development and/or loss of nephrons once nephrogenesis has been completed. Low nephron number is frequently, but not always, associated with hypertrophy of remaining glomeruli. This compensatory hypertrophy has also been associated with a greater susceptibility for kidney disease. Three human studies have reported reduced nelphron number in subjects with a history of hypertension. This correlation has been observed in White Europeans, White Americans (but not African Americans) and Australian Aborigines. Studies in additional populations are required, as well as a greater understanding of the fetal environmental and genetic determinants of low nephron number.

Number and type of substances in alcohol and drug-related completed suicides in an Australian sample

Background: The association between substance use and suicide is well-established, but evidence is scant regarding the relationship between the number, type, and level of substances and other risk factors in completed suicide across the lifespan. Aims: To examine the relationship between social/demographic characteristics and the number, type, and level of drugs present in an unrestricted age sample of completed suicides in Australia. Method: An analysis was undertaken of 893 substance-related suicides using data from the Government Statistician's Office for the years 1989-1992. Results: The number and type of substances present in suicide victims was related to the individual's gender, age, marital status, employment status, and method of suicide. Blood alcohol level was significantly different between the methods of suicide, but was unrelated to demographic characteristics of the individual. The level of antidepressants and minor tranquilizers in the individuals was also unrelated to demographic characteristics. Conclusion: Examination of the type and number of substances present in completed suicides is an important component in creating profiles of potential suicide victims.

A general Approach to Methods with a Sparse Jacobian for Solving Nonlinear Systems of Equations

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 65H10.

PCR-Based Analysis of Mitochondrial DNA Copy Number, Mitochondrial DNA Damage, and Nuclear DNA Damage.

Because of the role that DNA damage and depletion play in human disease, it is important to develop and improve tools to assess these endpoints. This unit describes PCR-based methods to measure nuclear and mitochondrial DNA damage and copy number. Long amplicon quantitative polymerase chain reaction (LA-QPCR) is used to detect DNA damage by measuring the number of polymerase-inhibiting lesions present based on the amount of PCR amplification; real-time PCR (RT-PCR) is used to calculate genome content. In this unit, we provide step-by-step instructions to perform these assays in Homo sapiens, Mus musculus, Rattus norvegicus, Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila melanogaster, Danio rerio, Oryzias latipes, Fundulus grandis, and Fundulus heteroclitus, and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of these assays.

Electrochemistry of Heteroleptic Tris(phthalocyaninato) Rare Earth(III) Complexes

The electrochemical characteristics of a series of heteroleptic tris(phthalocyaninato) complexes with identical rare earths or mixed rare earths (Pc)M(OOPc)M(OOPc) [M = Eu...Lu, Y; H2Pc = unsubstituted phthalocyanine, H2(OOPc) = 3,4,12,13,21,22,30,31-octakis(octyloxy)phthalocyanine] and (Pc)Eu(OOPc)Er(OOPc) have been recorded and studied comparatively by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) in CH2Cl2 containing 0.1 M tetrabutylammonium perchlorate (TBAP). Up to five quasi-reversible one-electron oxidations and four one-electron reductions have been revealed. The half-wave potentials of the first, second and fifth oxidations depend on the size of the metal center, but the fifth changes in the opposite direction to that of the first two. Moreover, the difference in redox potentials of the first oxidation and first reduction for (Pc)M(OOPc)M(OOPc), 0.85−0.98 V, also decreases linearly along with decreasing rare earth ion radius, clearly showing the rare earth ion size effect and indicating enhanced π−π interactions in the triple-deckers connected by smaller lanthanides. This order follows the red-shift seen in the lowest energy band of triple-decker compounds. The electronic differences between the lanthanides and yttrium are more apparent for triple-decker sandwich complexes than for the analogous double-deckers. By comparing triple-decker, double-decker and mononuclear [ZnII] complexes containing the OOPc ligand, the HOMO−LUMO gap has been shown to contract approximately linearly with the number of stacked phthalocyanine ligands.

On the zeros of the Abelian integrals for a class of Liénard systems

A planar polynomial differential system has a finite number of limit cycles. However, finding the upper bound of the number of limit cycles is an open problem for the general nonlinear dynamical systems. In this paper, we investigated a class of Liénard systems of the form x'=y, y'=f(x)+y g(x) with deg f=5 and deg g=4. We proved that the related elliptic integrals of the Liénard systems have at most three zeros including multiple zeros, which implies that the number of limit cycles bifurcated from the periodic orbits of the unperturbed system is less than or equal to 3.

Geographic Variation of Notified Ross River Virus Infections in Queensland, Australia, 1985-1996

The spatial and temporal variations of Ross River virus infections reported in Queensland, Australia, between 1985 and 1996 were studied by using the Geographic Information System. The notified cases of Ross River virus infection came from 489 localities between 1985 and 1988, 805 between 1989 and 1992, and 1,157 between 1993 and 1996 (chi2(df = 2) = 680.9; P < 0.001). There was a marked increase in the number of localities where the cases were reported by 65 percent for the period of 1989-1992 and 137 percent for 1993-1996, compared with that for 1985-1988. The geographic distribution of the notified Ross River virus cases has expanded in Queensland over recent years. As Ross River virus disease has impacted considerably on tourism and industry, as well as on residents of affected areas, more research is required to explore the causes of the geographic expansion of the notified Ross River virus infections.

Experimental studies on comparison of microwave curing and thermal curing of epoxy resins used for alternative mould materials

In this present work attempts have been made to study the glass transition temperature of alternative mould materials by using both microwave heating and conventional oven heating. In this present work three epoxy resins, namely R2512, R2515 and R2516, which are commonly used for making injection moulds have been used in combination with two hardeners H2403 and H2409. The magnetron microwave generator used in this research is operating at a frequency of 2.45 GHz with a hollow rectangular waveguide. In order to distinguish the effects between the microwave and conventional heating, a number of experiments were performed to test their mechanical properties such as tensile and flexural strengths. Additionally, differential scanning calorimeter technique was implemented to measure the glass transition temperature on both microwave and conventional heating. This study provided necessary evidences to establish that microwave heated mould materials resulted with higher glass transition temperature than the conventional heating. Finally, attempts were also made to study the microstructure of microwave-cured materials by using a scanning electron microscope in order to analyze the morphology of cured specimens.

Sexual selection in a tropical fruit fly : role of a plant derived chemical in mate choice

The specific mechanisms by which selective pressures affect individuals are often difficult to resolve. In tephritid fruit flies, males respond strongly and positively to certain plant derived chemicals. Sexual selection by female choice has been hypothesized as the mechanism driving this behaviour in certain species, as females preferentially mate with males that have fed on these chemicals. This hypothesis is, to date, based on studies of only very few species and its generality is largely untested. We tested the hypothesis on different spatial scales (small cage and seminatural field-cage) using the monophagous fruit fly, Bactrocera cacuminata. This species is known to respond to methyl eugenol (ME), a chemical found in many plant species and one upon which previous studies have focused. Contrary to expectation, no obvious female choice was apparent in selecting ME-fed males over unfed males as measured by the number of matings achieved over time, copulation duration, or time of copulation initiation. However, the number of matings achieved by ME-fed males was significantly greater than unfed males 16 and 32 days after exposure to ME in small cages (but not in a field-cage). This delayed advantage suggests that ME may not influence the pheromone system of B. cacuminata but may have other consequences, acting on some other fitness consequence (e.g., enhancement of physiology or survival) of male exposure to these chemicals. We discuss the ecological and evolutionary implications of our findings to explore alternate hypotheses to explain the patterns of response of dacine fruit flies to specific plant-derived chemicals.

Influence of host plant structure and microclimate on the abundance and behaviour of Tephritid fly

Microclimate and host plant architecture significantly influence the abundance and behavior of insects. However, most research in this field has focused at the invertebrate assemblage level, with few studies at the single-species level. Using wild Solanum mauritianum plants, we evaluated the influence of plant structure (number of leaves and branches and height of plant) and microclimate (temperature, relative humidity, and light intensity) on the abundance and behavior of a single insect species, the monophagous tephritid fly Bactrocera cacuminata (Hering). Abundance and oviposition behavior were signficantly influenced by the host structure (density of foliage) and associated microclimate. Resting behavior of both sexes was influenced positively by foliage density, while temperature positively influenced the numbers of resting females. The number of ovipositing females was positively influenced by temperature and negatively by relative humidity. Feeding behavior was rare on the host plant, as was mating. The relatively low explanatory power of the measured variables suggests that, in addition to host plant architecture and associated microclimate, other cues (e.g., olfactory or visual) could affect visitation and use of the larval host plant by adult fruit flies. For 12 plants observed at dusk (the time of fly mating), mating pairs were observed on only one tree. Principal component analyses of the plant and microclimate factors associated with these plants revealed that the plant on which mating was observed had specific characteristics (intermediate light intensity, greater height, and greater quantity of fruit) that may have influenced its selection as a mating site.

On Ordinal VC-Dimension and Some Notions of Complexity

We generalize the classical notion of Vapnik–Chernovenkis (VC) dimension to ordinal VC-dimension, in the context of logical learning paradigms. Logical learning paradigms encompass the numerical learning paradigms commonly studied in Inductive Inference. A logical learning paradigm is defined as a set W of structures over some vocabulary, and a set D of first-order formulas that represent data. The sets of models of ϕ in W, where ϕ varies over D, generate a natural topology W over W. We show that if D is closed under boolean operators, then the notion of ordinal VC-dimension offers a perfect characterization for the problem of predicting the truth of the members of D in a member of W, with an ordinal bound on the number of mistakes. This shows that the notion of VC-dimension has a natural interpretation in Inductive Inference, when cast into a logical setting. We also study the relationships between predictive complexity, selective complexity—a variation on predictive complexity—and mind change complexity. The assumptions that D is closed under boolean operators and that W is compact often play a crucial role to establish connections between these concepts. We then consider a computable setting with effective versions of the complexity measures, and show that the equivalence between ordinal VC-dimension and predictive complexity fails. More precisely, we prove that the effective ordinal VC-dimension of a paradigm can be defined when all other effective notions of complexity are undefined. On a better note, when W is compact, all effective notions of complexity are defined, though they are not related as in the noncomputable version of the framework.

High body mass index is not a barrier to physical activity: Analysis of international rugby players' anthropometric data

Recent data indicate that levels of overweight and obesity are increasing at an alarming rate throughout the world. At a population level (and commonly to assess individual health risk), the prevalence of overweight and obesity is calculated using cut-offs of the Body Mass Index (BMI) derived from height and weight. Similarly, the BMI is also used to classify individuals and to provide a notional indication of potential health risk. It is likely that epidemiologic surveys that are reliant on BMI as a measure of adiposity will overestimate the number of individuals in the overweight (and slightly obese) categories. This tendency to misclassify individuals may be more pronounced in athletic populations or groups in which the proportion of more active individuals is higher. This differential is most pronounced in sports where it is advantageous to have a high BMI (but not necessarily high fatness). To illustrate this point we calculated the BMIs of international professional rugby players from the four teams involved in the semi-finals of the 2003 Rugby Union World Cup. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) cut-offs for BMI, approximately 65% of the players were classified as overweight and approximately 25% as obese. These findings demonstrate that a high BMI is commonplace (and a potentially desirable attribute for sport performance) in professional rugby players. An unanswered question is what proportion of the wider population, classified as overweight (or obese) according to the BMI, is misclassified according to both fatness and health risk? It is evident that being overweight should not be an obstacle to a physically active lifestyle. Similarly, a reliance on BMI alone may misclassify a number of individuals who might otherwise have been automatically considered fat and/or unfit.