922 resultados para Number development
Resumo:
Computers have dramatically changed the way we live, conduct business, and deliver education. They have infiltrated the Bahamian public school system to the extent that many educators now feel the need for a national plan. The development of such a plan is a challenging undertaking, especially in developing countries where physical, financial, and human resources are scarce. This study assessed the situation with regard to computers within the Bahamian public school system, and provided recommended guidelines to the Bahamian government based on the results of a survey, the body of knowledge about trends in computer usage in schools, and the country's needs. ^ This was a descriptive study for which an extensive review of literature in areas of computer hardware, software, teacher training, research, curriculum, support services and local context variables was undertaken. One objective of the study was to establish what should or could be relative to the state-of-the-art in educational computing. A survey was conducted involving 201 teachers and 51 school administrators from 60 randomly selected Bahamian public schools. A random stratified cluster sampling technique was used. ^ This study used both quantitative and qualitative research methodologies. Quantitative methods were used to summarize the data about numbers and types of computers, categories of software available, peripheral equipment, and related topics through the use of forced-choice questions in a survey instrument. Results of these were displayed in tables and charts. Qualitative methods, data synthesis and content analysis, were used to analyze the non-numeric data obtained from open-ended questions on teachers' and school administrators' questionnaires, such as those regarding teachers' perceptions and attitudes about computers and their use in classrooms. Also, interpretative methodologies were used to analyze the qualitative results of several interviews conducted with senior public school system's officials. Content analysis was used to gather data from the literature on topics pertaining to the study. ^ Based on the literature review and the data gathered for this study a number of recommendations are presented. These recommendations may be used by the government of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas to establish policies with regard to the use of computers within the public school system. ^
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Highways are generally designed to serve a mixed traffic flow that consists of passenger cars, trucks, buses, recreational vehicles, etc. The fact that the impacts of these different vehicle types are not uniform creates problems in highway operations and safety. A common approach to reducing the impacts of truck traffic on freeways has been to restrict trucks to certain lane(s) to minimize the interaction between trucks and other vehicles and to compensate for their differences in operational characteristics. ^ The performance of different truck lane restriction alternatives differs under different traffic and geometric conditions. Thus, a good estimate of the operational performance of different truck lane restriction alternatives under prevailing conditions is needed to help make informed decisions on truck lane restriction alternatives. This study develops operational performance models that can be applied to help identify the most operationally efficient truck lane restriction alternative on a freeway under prevailing conditions. The operational performance measures examined in this study include average speed, throughput, speed difference, and lane changes. Prevailing conditions include number of lanes, interchange density, free-flow speeds, volumes, truck percentages, and ramp volumes. ^ Recognizing the difficulty of collecting sufficient data for an empirical modeling procedure that involves a high number of variables, the simulation approach was used to estimate the performance values for various truck lane restriction alternatives under various scenarios. Both the CORSIM and VISSIM simulation models were examined for their ability to model truck lane restrictions. Due to a major problem found in the CORSIM model for truck lane modeling, the VISSIM model was adopted as the simulator for this study. ^ The VISSIM model was calibrated mainly to replicate the capacity given in the 2000 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for various free-flow speeds under the ideal basic freeway section conditions. Non-linear regression models for average speed, throughput, average number of lane changes, and speed difference between the lane groups were developed. Based on the performance models developed, a simple decision procedure was recommended to select the desired truck lane restriction alternative for prevailing conditions. ^
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The nation's freeway systems are becoming increasingly congested. A major contribution to traffic congestion on freeways is due to traffic incidents. Traffic incidents are non-recurring events such as accidents or stranded vehicles that cause a temporary roadway capacity reduction, and they can account for as much as 60 percent of all traffic congestion on freeways. One major freeway incident management strategy involves diverting traffic to avoid incident locations by relaying timely information through Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) devices such as dynamic message signs or real-time traveler information systems. The decision to divert traffic depends foremost on the expected duration of an incident, which is difficult to predict. In addition, the duration of an incident is affected by many contributing factors. Determining and understanding these factors can help the process of identifying and developing better strategies to reduce incident durations and alleviate traffic congestion. A number of research studies have attempted to develop models to predict incident durations, yet with limited success. ^ This dissertation research attempts to improve on this previous effort by applying data mining techniques to a comprehensive incident database maintained by the District 4 ITS Office of the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). Two categories of incident duration prediction models were developed: "offline" models designed for use in the performance evaluation of incident management programs, and "online" models for real-time prediction of incident duration to aid in the decision making of traffic diversion in the event of an ongoing incident. Multiple data mining analysis techniques were applied and evaluated in the research. The multiple linear regression analysis and decision tree based method were applied to develop the offline models, and the rule-based method and a tree algorithm called M5P were used to develop the online models. ^ The results show that the models in general can achieve high prediction accuracy within acceptable time intervals of the actual durations. The research also identifies some new contributing factors that have not been examined in past studies. As part of the research effort, software code was developed to implement the models in the existing software system of District 4 FDOT for actual applications. ^
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Crash reduction factors (CRFs) are used to estimate the potential number of traffic crashes expected to be prevented from investment in safety improvement projects. The method used to develop CRFs in Florida has been based on the commonly used before-and-after approach. This approach suffers from a widely recognized problem known as regression-to-the-mean (RTM). The Empirical Bayes (EB) method has been introduced as a means to addressing the RTM problem. This method requires the information from both the treatment and reference sites in order to predict the expected number of crashes had the safety improvement projects at the treatment sites not been implemented. The information from the reference sites is estimated from a safety performance function (SPF), which is a mathematical relationship that links crashes to traffic exposure. The objective of this dissertation was to develop the SPFs for different functional classes of the Florida State Highway System. Crash data from years 2001 through 2003 along with traffic and geometric data were used in the SPF model development. SPFs for both rural and urban roadway categories were developed. The modeling data used were based on one-mile segments that contain homogeneous traffic and geometric conditions within each segment. Segments involving intersections were excluded. The scatter plots of data show that the relationships between crashes and traffic exposure are nonlinear, that crashes increase with traffic exposure in an increasing rate. Four regression models, namely, Poisson (PRM), Negative Binomial (NBRM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB), were fitted to the one-mile segment records for individual roadway categories. The best model was selected for each category based on a combination of the Likelihood Ratio test, the Vuong statistical test, and the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The NBRM model was found to be appropriate for only one category and the ZINB model was found to be more appropriate for six other categories. The overall results show that the Negative Binomial distribution model generally provides a better fit for the data than the Poisson distribution model. In addition, the ZINB model was found to give the best fit when the count data exhibit excess zeros and over-dispersion for most of the roadway categories. While model validation shows that most data points fall within the 95% prediction intervals of the models developed, the Pearson goodness-of-fit measure does not show statistical significance. This is expected as traffic volume is only one of the many factors contributing to the overall crash experience, and that the SPFs are to be applied in conjunction with Accident Modification Factors (AMFs) to further account for the safety impacts of major geometric features before arriving at the final crash prediction. However, with improved traffic and crash data quality, the crash prediction power of SPF models may be further improved.
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This study explored the critical features of temporal synchrony for the facilitation of prenatal perceptual learning with respect to unimodal stimulation using an animal model, the bobwhite quail. The following related hypotheses were examined: (1) the availability of temporal synchrony is a critical feature to facilitate prenatal perceptual learning, (2) a single temporally synchronous note is sufficient to facilitate prenatal perceptual learning, with respect to unimodal stimulation, and (3) in situations where embryos are exposed to a single temporally synchronous note, facilitated perceptual learning, with respect to unimodal stimulation, will be optimal when the temporally synchronous note occurs at the onset of the stimulation bout. To assess these hypotheses, two experiments were conducted in which quail embryos were exposed to various audio-visual configurations of a bobwhite maternal call and tested at 24 hr after hatching for evidence of facilitated prenatal perceptual learning with respect to unimodal stimulation. Experiment 1 explored if intermodal equivalence was sufficient to facilitate prenatal perceptual learning with respect to unimodal stimulation. A Bimodal Sequential Temporal Equivalence (BSTE) condition was created that provided embryos with sequential auditory and visual stimulation in which the same amodal properties (rate, duration, rhythm) were made available across modalities. Experiment 2 assessed: (a) whether a limited number of temporally synchronous notes are sufficient for facilitated prenatal perceptual learning with respect to unimodal stimulation, and (b) whether there is a relationship between timing of occurrence of a temporally synchronous note and the facilitation of prenatal perceptual learning. Results revealed that prenatal exposure to BSTE was not sufficient to facilitate perceptual learning. In contrast, a maternal call that contained a single temporally synchronous note was sufficient to facilitate embryos’ prenatal perceptual learning with respect to unimodal stimulation. Furthermore, the most salient prenatal condition was that which contained the synchronous note at the onset of the call burst. Embryos’ prenatal perceptual learning of the call was four times faster in this condition than when exposed to a unimodal call. Taken together, bobwhite quail embryos’ remarkable sensitivity to temporal synchrony suggests that this amodal property plays a key role in attention and learning during prenatal development.
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A major consequence of contamination at the local level’s population as it relates to environmental health and environmental engineering is childhood lead poisoning. Environmental contamination is one of the pressing environmental concerns facing the world today. Current approaches often focus on large contaminated industrial size sites that are designated by regulatory agencies for site remediation. Prior to this study, there were no known published studies conducted at the local and smaller scale, such as neighborhoods, where often much of the contamination is present to remediate. An environmental health study of local lead-poisoning data in Liberty City, Little Haiti and eastern Little Havana in Miami-Dade County, Florida accounted for a disproportionately high number of the county’s reported childhood lead poisoning cases. An engineering system was developed and designed for a comprehensive risk management methodology that is distinctively applicable to the geographical and environmental conditions of Miami-Dade County, Florida. Furthermore, a scientific approach for interpreting environmental health concerns, while involving detailed environmental engineering control measures and methods for site remediation in contained media was developed for implementation. Test samples were obtained from residents and sites in those specific communities in Miami-Dade County, Florida (Gasana and Chamorro 2002). Currently lead does not have an Oral Assessment, Inhalation Assessment, and Oral Slope Factor; variables that are required to run a quantitative risk assessment. However, various institutional controls from federal agencies’ standards and regulation for contaminated lead in media yield adequate maximum concentration limits (MCLs). For this study an MCL of .0015 (mg/L) was used. A risk management approach concerning contaminated media involving lead demonstrates that the linkage of environmental health and environmental engineering can yield a feasible solution.
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The purpose of this study was to investigate the ontogeny of auditory learning via operant contingency in Northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus ) hatchlings and possible interaction between attention, orienting and learning during early development. Chicks received individual 5 min training sessions in which they received a playback of a bobwhite maternal call at a single delay following each vocalization they emitted. Playback was either from a single randomly chosen speaker or switched back and forth semi-randomly between two speakers during training. Chicks were tested 24 hrs later in a simultaneous choice test between the familiar and an unfamiliar maternal call. It was found that day-old chicks showed a significant time-specific decrement in auditory learning when trained with delays in the range of 470–910 ms between their vocalizations and call playback only when training involved two speakers. Two-day-old birds showed an even more sustained disruption of learning than day-old chicks, whereas three-day-old chicks showed a pattern of intermittent interference with their learning when trained at such delays. A similar but less severe decrement in auditory learning was found when chicks were provided with motor training in which playback was contingent upon chicks entering and exiting one of two colored squares placed on the floor of the arena. Chicks provided with playback of the call at randomly chosen delays each time they vocalized exhibited large fluctuations in their responsivity to the auditory stimulus as a function of delay—fluctuations which were correlated significantly with measures of chick learning, particularly at two-days-of-age. When playback was limited to a single location chicks no longer showed a time-specific disruption of their learning of the auditory stimulus. Sequential analyses revealed several patterns suggesting that an attentional process similar or analogous to attentional blink may have contributed both to the observed fluctuations in chick responsivity to the auditory stimulus as a function of delay and to the time-specific learning deficit shown by chicks provided with two-speaker training. The study highlights that learning can be substantially modulated by processes of orienting and attention and has a number of important implications for research within cognitive neuroscience, animal behavior and learning.
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Smokeless powder additives are usually detected by their extraction from post-blast residues or unburned powder particles followed by analysis using chromatographic techniques. This work presents the first comprehensive study of the detection of the volatile and semi-volatile additives of smokeless powders using solid phase microextraction (SPME) as a sampling and pre-concentration technique. Seventy smokeless powders were studied using laboratory based chromatography techniques and a field deployable ion mobility spectrometer (IMS). The detection of diphenylamine, ethyl and methyl centralite, 2,4-dinitrotoluene, diethyl and dibutyl phthalate by IMS to associate the presence of these compounds to smokeless powders is also reported for the first time. A previously reported SPME-IMS analytical approach facilitates rapid sub-nanogram detection of the vapor phase components of smokeless powders. A mass calibration procedure for the analytical techniques used in this study was developed. Precise and accurate mass delivery of analytes in picoliter volumes was achieved using a drop-on-demand inkjet printing method. Absolute mass detection limits determined using this method for the various analytes of interest ranged between 0.03–0.8 ng for the GC-MS and between 0.03–2 ng for the IMS. Mass response graphs generated for different detection techniques help in the determination of mass extracted from the headspace of each smokeless powder. The analyte mass present in the vapor phase was sufficient for a SPME fiber to extract most analytes at amounts above the detection limits of both chromatographic techniques and the ion mobility spectrometer. Analysis of the large number of smokeless powders revealed that diphenylamine was present in the headspace of 96% of the powders. Ethyl centralite was detected in 47% of the powders and 8% of the powders had methyl centralite available for detection from the headspace sampling of the powders by SPME. Nitroglycerin was the dominant peak present in the headspace of the double-based powders. 2,4-dinitrotoluene which is another important headspace component was detected in 44% of the powders. The powders therefore have more than one headspace component and the detection of a combination of these compounds is achievable by SPME-IMS leading to an association to the presence of smokeless powders.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to develop an instrument to measure high school students’ perspectives on global awareness and attitudes toward social issues. The research questions that guided this study were: (a) Can acceptable validity and reliability estimates be established for an instrument developed to measure high schools students' global awareness? (b) Can acceptable validity and reliability estimates be established for an instrument developed to measure high schools students' attitudes towards global social issues? (c) What is the relationship between high school students’ GPA, race/ethnicity, gender, socio-economic status, parents’ education, getting the news, reading and listening habits, the number of classes taken in the social sciences, whether they speak a second language, and have experienced living in or visiting other countries, and their perception of global awareness and attitudes toward global social issues. ^ An ex post facto research design was used and the data were collected using a 4-part Likert-type survey. It was administered to 14 schools in the Miami-Dade County, Florida area to 704 students. A factor analysis with an orthogonal varimax rotation was vii used to select the factors that best represented the three constructs – global education, global citizenship, and global workforce. This was done to establish construct validity. Cronbach’s alpha was used to determine the reliability of the instrument. Descriptive statistics and a hierarchical multiple regression were used for the demographics to establish their relationship, if any, to the findings. ^ Key findings of the study were that reliable and valid estimates can be developed for the instrument. The multiple regression analysis for model 1 and 2 accounted for a variance of 3% and 5% for self-perceptions of global awareness (factor 1). The regression model also accounted for a 5% and 13% variance in the two models for attitudes toward global social issues (factor 2). The demographics that were statistically significant were: ethnicity, gender, SES, parents’ education, listening to music, getting the news, speaking a second language, GPA, classes taken in the social sciences, and visiting other countries. An important finding for the study was those attending public schools (as opposed to private schools) had more positive attitudes towards global social issues (factor 2) The statistics indicated that these students had taken history, economics, and social studies – a curriculum infused with global perspectives.^
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This dissertation examines local governments' efforts to promote economic development in Latin America. The research uses a mixed method to explore how cities make decisions to innovate, develop, and finance economic development programs. First, this study provides a comparative analysis of decentralization policies in Argentina and Mexico as a means to gain a better understanding of the degree of autonomy exercised by local governments. Then, it analyzes three local governments each within the province of Santa Fe, Argentina and the State of Guanajuato, Mexico. The principal hypothesis of this dissertation is that if local governments collect more own-source tax revenue, they are more likely to promote economic development and thus, in turn, promote growth for their region. ^ By examining six cities, three of which are in Santa Fe—Rosario, Santa Fe (capital) and Rafaela—and three in Guanajuato—Leon, Guanajuato (capital) and San Miguel de Allende, this dissertation provides a better understanding of public finances and tax collection efforts of local governments in Latin America. Specific attention is paid to each city's budget authority to raise new revenue and efforts to promote economic development. The research also includes a large statistical dataset of Mexico's 2,454 municipalities and a regression analysis that evaluates local tax efforts on economic growth, controlling for population, territorial size, and the professional development. In order to generalize these results, the research tests these discoveries by using statistical data gathered from a survey administered to Latin American municipal officials. ^ The dissertation demonstrates that cities, which experience greater fiscal autonomy measured by the collection of more own-source revenue, are better able to stimulate effective economic development programs, and ultimately, create jobs within their communities. The results are bolstered by a large number of interviews, which were conducted with over 100 finance specialists, municipal presidents, and local authorities. The dissertation also includes an in-depth literature review on fiscal federalism, decentralization, debt financing and local development. It concludes with a discussion of the findings of the study and applications for the practice of public administration.^
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There are situations in which it is very important to quickly and positively identify an individual. Examples include suspects detained in the neighborhood of a bombing or terrorist incident, individuals detained attempting to enter or leave the country, and victims of mass disasters. Systems utilized for these purposes must be fast, portable, and easy to maintain. The goal of this project was to develop an ultra fast, direct PCR method for forensic genotyping of oral swabs. The procedure developed eliminates the need for cellular digestion and extraction of the sample by performing those steps in the PCR tube itself. Then, special high-speed polymerases are added which are capable of amplifying a newly developed 7 loci multiplex in under 16 minutes. Following the amplification, a postage stamp sized microfluidic device equipped with specially designed entangled polymer separation matrix, yields a complete genotype in 80 seconds. The entire process is rapid and reliable, reducing the time from sample to genotype from 1-2 days to under 20 minutes. Operation requires minimal equipment and can be easily performed with a small high-speed thermal-cycler, reagents, and a microfluidic device with a laptop. The system was optimized and validated using a number of test parameters and a small test population. The overall precision was better than 0.17 bp and provided a power of discrimination greater than 1 in 106. The small footprint, and ease of use will permit this system to be an effective tool to quickly screen and identify individuals detained at ports of entry, police stations and remote locations. The system is robust, portable and demonstrates to the forensic community a simple solution to the problem of rapid determination of genetic identity.
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The extensive impact and consequences of the 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil drilling rig failure in the Gulf of Mexico, together with expanding drilling activities in the Cuban Exclusive Economic zone, have cast a spotlight on Cuban oil development. The threat of a drilling rig failure has evolved from being only hypothetical to a potential reality with the commencement of active drilling in Cuban waters. The disastrous consequences of a drilling rig failure in Cuban waters will spread over a number of vital interests of the US and of nations in the Caribbean in the general environs of Cuba. The US fishing and tourist industries will take major blows from a significant oil spill in Cuban waters. Substantial ecological damage and damage to beaches could occur for the US, Mexico, Haiti and other countries as well. The need exists for the US to have the ability to independently monitor the reality of Cuban oceanic oil development. The advantages of having an independent US early warning system providing essential real-time data on the possible failure of a drilling rig in Cuban waters are numerous. An ideal early warning system would timely inform the US that an event has occurred or is likely to occur in, essentially, real-time. Presently operating monitoring systems that could provide early warning information are satellite-based. Such systems can indicate the locations of both drilling rigs and operational drilling platforms. The system discussed/proposed in this paper relies upon low-frequency underwater sound. The proposed system can complement existing monitoring systems, which offer ocean-surface information, by providing sub-ocean surface, near-real time, information. This “integrated system” utilizes and combines (integrates) many different forms of information, some gathered through sub-ocean surface systems, and some through electromagnetic-based remote sensing (satellites, aircraft, unmanned arial vehicles), and other methods as well. Although the proposed integrated system is in the developmental stage, it is based upon well-established technologies.
Resumo:
In his discussion - Challenge To Managers: Changing Hotel Work from a Secondary Choice to Career Development - by Leonidas Chitiris, Lecturer in Management, Piraeus Graduate School of Industrial Studies, Athens, Greece, Chitiris marginally alludes at the outset: “Surveys and interviews with hotel employees in Greece with regard to why individuals work for hotels and to what extent their rationale to join the hotel industry affects hotel productivity revealed that the choice to work in hotels is a secondary preference and reflects the opportunity structure in the economy at any given time and the greater the number of those who work in hotels when there are no other employment opportunities, the less likely the chances for overall improved performance. Given the increase in the proportion of unskilled, unmotivated workers, the level of hotel productivity consequently decreases! The author interprets the findings in terms of the economic and employment conditions in the Greek hotel industry. To enhance the rationale of his thesis statement, Chitiris offers with citation: “Research on initial entry into the labor force has shown that new employees reflect idealized expectations and are frequently not very satisfied with their jobs and roles in the work settings.” Chitiris advances the thought even further by saying: “Research on job satisfaction, motivation, and production purports that management can initiate policies that develop job satisfaction and may improve productivity.” The author outlines components within the general category of the hotel industry to label and quantify exactly why there may be a lag between employee expectations and the delivery of a superior level of service. Please keep in mind that the information for this essay is underpinned by the hotel industry in Greece, exclusively. Demographic information is provided. One example of the many factors parsed in this hotel service discussion is the employee/guest relationship. “The quality of service in hotels is affected to a great extent by the number of guests a hotel employee has to serve,” Chitiris offers. Additionally, Chitiris’ characterization of the typical hotel employee in Greece is not flattering, but it is an informed and representative view of that lodging labor pool. The description in and of itself begs to explain at least some of why the hotel industry in Greece suffers a consequently diminished capacity of superior service. Ill equipped, under-educated, over-worked, and under-paid are how Chitiris describes most employees in the Hellenist hospitality field. Survey based studies, and formulaic indices are used to measure variables related to productivity; the results may be inconclusive industry wide, but are interesting nonetheless. Also, an appealing table gauges the reasons why hotel workers actually employ themselves in the lodging industry. Chirtiris finds that salary expectations do not rate all that high on the motivational chart and are only marginal when related to productivity. In closing, Chirtiris presents a 5-phase development plan hotels should look to in improving performance and productivity at their respective properties.
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America’s deficiency in mathematics can be benefitted by an emphasis in mathematics from an early age. An effective math curriculum for preschool should consist of the most important aspects of early childhood mathematics, including number writing and identification, one-to-one correspondence, cardinality, number comparison, ordinality, number sequence, and number bonds.
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In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency's safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.