Estimating Bayesian decision problems with heterogeneous priors

In many areas of economics there is a growing interest in how expertise andpreferences drive individual and group decision making under uncertainty. Increasingly, we wish to estimate such models to quantify which of these drive decisionmaking. In this paper we propose a new channel through which we can empirically identify expertise and preference parameters by using variation in decisionsover heterogeneous priors. Relative to existing estimation approaches, our \Prior-Based Identification" extends the possible environments which can be estimated,and also substantially improves the accuracy and precision of estimates in thoseenvironments which can be estimated using existing methods.

The functions of sleep.

Here we report on The Satellite Symposium on Sleep Function that was held in Lausanne during 6(th) FENS forum and brought together neuroscientists from basic and clinical sleep research. We illustrate the principal questions that arose during this interdisciplinary gathering and introduce the contents of nine review articles on aspects of sleep that are contained in this Special Issue of the European Journal of Neuroscience.

Effect of Emotion and Personality on Deviation from Purely Rational Decision-Making

Human decision-making has consistently demonstrated deviation from "pure" rationality. Emotions are a primary driver of human actions and the current study investigates how perceived emotions and personality traits may affect decision-making during the Ultimatum Game (UG). We manipulated emotions by showing images with emotional connotation while participants decided how to split money with a second player. Event-related potentials (ERPs) from scalp electrodes were recorded during the whole decision-making process. We observed significant differences in the activity of central and frontal areas when participants offered money with respect to when they accepted or rejected an offer. We found that participants were more likely to offer a higher amount of money when making their decision in association with negative emotions. Furthermore, participants were more likely to accept offers when making their decision in association with positive emotions. Honest, conscientious, and introverted participants were more likely to accept offers. Our results suggest that factors others than a rational strategy may predict economic decision-making in the UG.

Econometrics and decision making: Effects of presentation mode

Much of empirical economics involves regression analysis. However, does thepresentation of results affect economists ability to make inferences for decision makingpurposes? In a survey, 257 academic economists were asked to make probabilisticinferences on the basis of the outputs of a regression analysis presented in a standardformat. Questions concerned the distribution of the dependent variable conditional onknown values of the independent variable. However, many respondents underestimateduncertainty by failing to take into account the standard deviation of the estimatedresiduals. The addition of graphs did not substantially improve inferences. On the otherhand, when only graphs were provided (i.e., with no statistics), respondents weresubstantially more accurate. We discuss implications for improving practice in reportingresults of regression analyses.

Functions of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPAR) in skin homeostasis.

The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPAR) are ligand-activated transcription factors that belong to the nuclear hormone receptor family. Three isotypes (PPAR alpha, PPAR beta or delta, and PPAR gamma) with distinct tissue distributions and cellular functions have been found in vertebrates. All three PPAR isotypes are expressed in rodent and human skin. They were initially investigated for a possible function in the establishment of the permeability barrier in skin because of their known function in lipid metabolism in other cell types. In vitro studies using specific PPAR agonists and in vivo gene disruption approaches in mice indeed suggest an important contribution of PPAR alpha in the formation of the epidermal barrier and in sebocyte differentiation. The PPAR gamma isotype plays a role in stimulating sebocyte development and lipogenesis, but does not appear to contribute to epidermal tissue differentiation. The third isotype, PPAR beta, regulates the late stages of sebaceous cell differentiation, and is the most effective isotype in stimulating lipid production in these cells, both in rodents and in humans. In addition, PPAR beta activation has pro-differentiating effects in keratinocytes under normal and inflammatory conditions. Finally, preliminary studies also point to a potential role of PPAR in hair follicle growth and in melanocyte differentiation. By their diverse biological effects on cell proliferation and differentiation in the skin, PPAR agonists or antagonists may offer interesting opportunities for the treatment of various skin disorders characterized by inflammation, cell hyperproliferation, and aberrant differentiation.

Contractual allocation of decision rights and incentives: The case of automobile distribution

We analyze empirically the allocation of rights and monetary incentives in automobile franchise contracts. These contracts substantially restrict the decision rights of dealers and grant manufacturers extensive contractual completion and enforcement powers, converting the manufacturers, de facto, in a sort of quasi-judiciary instance. Variation in the allocation of decision rights andincentive intensity is explained by the incidence of moral hazard in the relation. In particular, when the cost of dealer moral hazard is higher and the risk of manufactureropportunism is lower, manufacturers enjoy more discretion in determining the performance required from their dealers and in using mechanisms such as monitoring, termination and monetary incentives to ensure such performance is provided. We also explore the existence of interdependencies between the different elements of the system. and find some complementarities between completion and termination rights, and between monitoring rights and the intensity of incentives.

Riesz-Nágy singular functions revisited

In 1952 F. Riesz and Sz.Nágy published an example of a monotonic continuous function whose derivative is zero almost everywhere, that is to say, a singular function. Besides, the function was strictly increasing. Their example was built as the limit of a sequence of deformations of the identity function. As an easy consequence of the definition, the derivative, when it existed and was finite, was found to be zero. In this paper we revisit the Riesz-N´agy family of functions and we relate it to a system for real numberrepresentation which we call (t, t-1) expansions. With the help of these real number expansions we generalize the family. The singularity of the functions is proved through some metrical properties of the expansions used in their definition which also allows us to give a more precise way of determining when the derivative is 0 or infinity.

Signalling, mating success and paternal investment in sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus): A theoretical model

I present an optimisation model that links paternal investment, male display and female choice. Although deviced for sticklebacks, it readily applies to other fish with male guarding behaviour. It relies on a few basic assumptions on the ways hatching success depends on paternal investment and clutch size, and male survival on paternal investment and signaling. Paternal investment is here a state-dependent decision, and signal a condition-dependent handicap by which males inform females of how much they are willing to invest. Series of predictions are derived on female and male breeding strategies, including optimal levels of signaling and paternal investment as functions of clutch size, own condition, and residual reproductive value, as well as alternative strategies such as egg kleptoparasitism. Some predictions already have empirical support, for which the present model provides new interpretations. Other might readily be tested, e.g. by simple clutch-size manipulations.

Nonlinear models and small sample performance of the generalized method of moments

In this paper I explore the issue of nonlinearity (both in the datageneration process and in the functional form that establishes therelationship between the parameters and the data) regarding the poorperformance of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in small samples.To this purpose I build a sequence of models starting with a simple linearmodel and enlarging it progressively until I approximate a standard (nonlinear)neoclassical growth model. I then use simulation techniques to find the smallsample distribution of the GMM estimators in each of the models.

The impact of gender composition on team performance and decision-making: Evidence from the field

We investigate whether the gender composition of teams affect theireconomic performance. We study a large business game, played in groups ofthree, where each group takes the role of a general manager. There are twoparallel competitions, one involving undergraduates and the other involvingMBAs. Our analysis shows that teams formed by three women aresignificantly outperformed by any other gender combination, both at theundergraduate and MBA levels. Looking across the performancedistribution, we find that for undergraduates, three women teams areoutperformed throughout, but by as much as 10pp at the bottom and by only1pp at the top. For MBAs, at the top, the best performing group is two menand one woman. The differences in performance are explained bydifferences in decision-making. We observe that three women teams are lessaggressive in their pricing strategies, invest less in R&D, and invest more insocial sustainability initiatives, than any other gender combination teams.Finally, we find support for the hypothesis that it is poor work dynamicsamong the three women teams that drives the results.

Unique and conserved functions of B cell-activating factor of the TNF family (BAFF) in the chicken.

The chicken represents the best-characterized animal model for B cell development in the so-called gut-associated lymphoid tissue (GALT) and the molecular processes leading to B cell receptor diversification in this species are well investigated. However, the mechanisms regulating B cell development and homeostasis in GALT species are largely unknown. Here we investigate the role played by the avian homologue of B cell-activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family (BAFF). Flow cytometric analysis showed that the receptor for chicken B cell-activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family (chBAFF) is expressed by mature and immature B cells. Unlike murine and human BAFF, chBAFF is primarily produced by B cells both in peripheral lymphoid organs and in the bursa of Fabricius, the chicken's unique primary lymphoid organ. In vitro and in vivo studies revealed that chBAFF is required for mature B cell survival. In addition, in vivo neutralization with a decoy receptor led to a reduction of the size and number of B cell follicles in the bursa, demonstrating that, in contrast to humans and mice, in chickens BAFF is also required for the development of immature B cells. Collectively, we show that chBAFF has phylogenetically conserved functions in mature B cell homeostasis but displays unique and thus far unknown properties in the regulation of B cell development in birds.

Development and validation of a clinical decision rule for the diagnosis of influenza.

INTRODUCTION: A clinical decision rule to improve the accuracy of a diagnosis of influenza could help clinicians avoid unnecessary use of diagnostic tests and treatments. Our objective was to develop and validate a simple clinical decision rule for diagnosis of influenza. METHODS: We combined data from 2 studies of influenza diagnosis in adult outpatients with suspected influenza: one set in California and one in Switzerland. Patients in both studies underwent a structured history and physical examination and had a reference standard test for influenza (polymerase chain reaction or culture). We randomly divided the dataset into derivation and validation groups and then evaluated simple heuristics and decision rules from previous studies and 3 rules based on our own multivariate analysis. Cutpoints for stratification of risk groups in each model were determined using the derivation group before evaluating them in the validation group. For each decision rule, the positive predictive value and likelihood ratio for influenza in low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, and the percentage of patients allocated to each risk group, were reported. RESULTS: The simple heuristics (fever and cough; fever, cough, and acute onset) were helpful when positive but not when negative. The most useful and accurate clinical rule assigned 2 points for fever plus cough, 2 points for myalgias, and 1 point each for duration <48 hours and chills or sweats. The risk of influenza was 8% for 0 to 2 points, 30% for 3 points, and 59% for 4 to 6 points; the rule performed similarly in derivation and validation groups. Approximately two-thirds of patients fell into the low- or high-risk group and would not require further diagnostic testing. CONCLUSION: A simple, valid clinical rule can be used to guide point-of-care testing and empiric therapy for patients with suspected influenza.

Social value orientation as a moral intuition: Decision-making in the dictator game

We studied the decision making process in the Dictator Game and showed that decisions are the result of a two-step process. In a first step, decision makers generate an automatic, intuitive proposal. Given sufficient motivation and cognitive resources, they adjust this in a second, more deliberated phase. In line with the social intuitionist model, we show that one s Social Value Orientation determines intuitive choice tendencies in the first step, and that this effect is mediated by the dictator s perceived interpersonal closeness with the receiver. Self-interested concerns subsequently leadto a reduction of donation size in step 2. Finally, we show that increasing interpersonal closeness can promote pro-social decision-making.