Non-normal real estate return distributions by property type in the U.K.

Investment risk models with infinite variance provide a better description of distributions of individual property returns in the IPD database over the period 1981 to 2003 than Normally distributed risk models, which mirrors results in the U.S. and Australia using identical methodology. Real estate investment risk is heteroscedastic, but the Characteristic Exponent of the investment risk function is constant across time yet may vary by property type. Asset diversification is far less effective at reducing the impact of non-systematic investment risk on real estate portfolios than in the case of assets with Normally distributed investment risk. Multi-risk factor portfolio allocation models based on measures of investment codependence from finite-variance statistics are ineffectual in the real estate context.

The effectiveness of non-executive directors in Chinese state-owned enterprises

Purpose – The primary aim of this paper is to examine whether boards of directors with independent members function as effective corporate governance mechanisms in Chinese State-Owned Enterprises(SOEs), by analysing four characteristics of non-executive directors (NEDs) that impact on their effectiveness, namely their degree of independence, information, incentive, and competence. Design/methodology/approach – Being exploratory in nature, the research uses qualitative methods for data collection. It is based on an interpretivist perspective of social sciences, analysing and explaining the factors that influence the effectiveness of NEDs. Findings – The findings indicate that the NED system is weak in China as a result of the concentrated ownership structure, unique business culture, intervention of controlling shareholders and the lack of understanding of the benefits brought by NEDs. Research limitations/implications – The paper examines the salient features of and challenges to the system of NEDs of SOEs in present-day China. It provides an understanding of how the various perceptions of the board, gathered from in-depth interviews of corporate directors, leads to new interpretations of board effectiveness. The research, however, is limited owing to a relatively small sample size and the sensitive nature of the information collected. Originality/value – The study aims to fill gaps in the literature and contribute to it by assessing the “real” views and perceptions of NEDs in China in an institutional environment significantly different from that of the USA, the UK and other western economies.

Comparing hypotheses about competition in the food system

A procedure is presented for comparing hypotheses about competition that makes no parametric assumptions about cost and demand functions, can be implemented with a modicum of data, and relies on Bayesian comparisons of non-nested hypotheses. The methodology is applied to data on five of the major U.S. food industries

(PDF, 406 KB) On L3 acquisition and phonological permeability: a new test case for debates on the mental representation of non-native phonological systems

The goal of this article is to make an epistemological and theoretical contribution to the nascent field of third language (L3) acquisition and show how examining L3 development can offer a unique view into longstanding debates within L2 acquisition theory. We offer the Phonological Permeability Hypothesis (PPH), which maintains that examining the development of an L3/Ln phonological system and its effects on a previously acquired L2 phonological system can inform contemporary debates regarding the mental constitution of postcritical period adult phonological acquisition. We discuss the predictions and functional significance of the PPH for adult SLA and multilingualism studies, detailing a methodology that examines the effects of acquiring Brazilian Portuguese on the Spanish phonological systems learned before and after the so-called critical period (i.e., comparing simultaneous versus successive adult English-Spanish bilinguals learning Brazilian Portuguese as an L3).

Managing non-standard international experience: evidence from a Finnish company

Purpose – This paper extends the increasing debates about the role of international experience through mechanisms other than standard expatriation packages, in particular through the use of short-term assignments. It explores the different forms of short-term assignments (project work, commuter assignments, virtual international working and development assignments) and the different sets of positive and negative implications these can have for the company and the individuals concerned. The integration-differentiation debate is reflected here as elsewhere in IHRM, with the company moving towards greater centralization and control of its use of these assignments. Design/methodology/approach – Since the research is exploratory, we adopted a qualitative approach to get a more in-depth understanding on the realities the corporations and the assignees are facing. The study was implemented through a single case study setting in which the data were collected by interviewing (n=20) line managers, human resource management (HRM) staff and assignees themselves. In addition corporate documentation and other materials were reviewed. Findings – The present case study provides evidence about the characteristics of short-term assignments as well as the on the management of such assignments. The paper identifies various benefits and challenges involved in the use of short-term assignments both from the perspectives of the company and assignees. Furthermore, the findings support the view that a recent increase in the popularity of short-term assignments has not been matched by the development of HRM policies for such assignments. Research limitations/implications – As a single case study, limitations in the generalizability of the findings should be kept in mind. More large-scale research evidence is needed around different forms of international assignments beyond standard expatriation in order to fully capture the realities faced by international HRM specialists Practical implications – The paper identifies many challenges but also benefits of using short-term assignments. The paper reports in-depth findings on HR development needs that organizations face when expanding the use of such assignments. Social implications – The paper identifies many challenges but also benefits of using short-term assignments. The paper reports in-depth findings on HR development needs that organizations face when expanding the use of such assignments. Originality/value – Empirical research on short-term assignments is still very limited. In that way the paper provides much needed in-depth evidence on why such assignments are used, what challenges are involved in the use of such assignments and what kinds of HR-development needs are involved.

Modelling methodology and forecast failure

We analyse by simulation the impact of model-selection strategies (sometimes called pre-testing) on forecast performance in both constant-and non-constant-parameter processes. Restricted, unrestricted and selected models are compared when either of the first two might generate the data. We find little evidence that strategies such as general-to-specific induce significant over-fitting, or thereby cause forecast-failure rejection rates to greatly exceed nominal sizes. Parameter non-constancies put a premium on correct specification, but in general, model-selection effects appear to be relatively small, and progressive research is able to detect the mis-specifications.

Bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations as non-linearity tests and tools for exchange rate forecasting

This paper proposes and implements a new methodology for forecasting time series, based on bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations. It is shown that the forecasting technique arises as a natural extension of, and as a complement to, existing univariate and multivariate non-linearity tests. The formulations are essentially modified autoregressive or vector autoregressive models respectively, which can be estimated using ordinary least squares. The techniques are applied to a set of high-frequency exchange rate returns, and their out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared to that of other time series models

Enhanced affective brain representations of chocolate in cravers vs. non-cravers

To examine the neural circuitry involved in food craving, in making food particularly appetitive and thus in driving wanting and eating, we used fMRI to measure the response to the flavour of chocolate, the sight of chocolate and their combination in cravers vs. non-cravers. Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) analyses showed that the sight of chocolate produced more activation in chocolate cravers than non-cravers in the medial orbitofrontal cortex and ventral striatum. For cravers vs. non-cravers, a combination of a picture of chocolate with chocolate in the mouth produced a greater effect than the sum of the components (i.e. supralinearity) in the medial orbitofrontal cortex and pregenual cingulate cortex. Furthermore, the pleasantness ratings of the chocolate and chocolate-related stimuli had higher positive correlations with the fMRI blood oxygenation level-dependent signals in the pregenual cingulate cortex and medial orbitofrontal cortex in the cravers than in the non-cravers. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show that there are differences between cravers and non-cravers in their responses to the sensory components of a craved food in the orbitofrontal cortex, ventral striatum and pregenual cingulate cortex, and that in some of these regions the differences are related to the subjective pleasantness of the craved foods. Understanding individual differences in brain responses to very pleasant foods helps in the understanding of the mechanisms that drive the liking for specific foods and thus intake of those foods.

Probability functions to build composite indicators: a methodology to measure environmental impacts of genetically modified crops

There is an on-going debate on the environmental effects of genetically modified crops to which this paper aims to contribute. First, data on environmental impacts of genetically modified (GM) and conventional crops are collected from peer-reviewed journals, and secondly an analysis is conducted in order to examine which crop type is less harmful for the environment. Published data on environmental impacts are measured using an array of indicators, and their analysis requires their normalisation and aggregation. Taking advantage of composite indicators literature, this paper builds composite indicators to measure the impact of GM and conventional crops in three dimensions: (1) non-target key species richness, (2) pesticide use, and (3) aggregated environmental impact. The comparison between the three composite indicators for both crop types allows us to establish not only a ranking to elucidate which crop is more convenient for the environment but the probability that one crop type outperforms the other from an environmental perspective. Results show that GM crops tend to cause lower environmental impacts than conventional crops for the analysed indicators.

An unstructured CVFEM and moving interface algorithm for non-Newtonian Hele-Shaw flows in injection molding

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel unstructured simulation approach for injection molding processes described by the Hele-Shaw model. Design/methodology/approach - The scheme involves dual dynamic meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset. The quasi-static pressure solution in each timestep for this evolving unstructured mesh system is approximated using a control volume finite element method formulation coupled to a corresponding modified volume of fluid method. The flow is considered to be isothermal and non-Newtonian. Findings - Supporting numerical tests and performance studies for polystyrene described by Carreau, Cross, Ellis and Power-law fluid models are conducted. Results for the present method are shown to be comparable to those from other methods for both Newtonian fluid and polystyrene fluid injected in different mold geometries. Research limitations/implications - With respect to the methodology, the background pointset infers a mesh that is dynamically reconstructed here, and there are a number of efficiency issues and improvements that would be relevant to industrial applications. For instance, one can use the pointset to construct special bases and invoke a so-called ""meshless"" scheme using the basis. This would require some interesting strategies to deal with the dynamic point enrichment of the moving front that could benefit from the present front treatment strategy. There are also issues related to mass conservation and fill-time errors that might be addressed by introducing suitable projections. The general question of ""rate of convergence"" of these schemes requires analysis. Numerical results here suggest first-order accuracy and are consistent with the approximations made, but theoretical results are not available yet for these methods. Originality/value - This novel unstructured simulation approach involves dual meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset: local active dual patches are constructed ""on-the-fly"" for each ""active point"" to form a dynamic virtual mesh of active elements that evolves with the moving interface.

A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Comparison Of Demand Pattern Calibration In Water Distribution Networks With Geographic And Non-Geographic Parameterization

Demands are one of the most uncertain parameters in a water distribution network model. A good calibration of the model demands leads to better solutions when using the model for any purpose. A demand pattern calibration methodology that uses a priori information has been developed for calibrating the behaviour of demand groups. Generally, the behaviours of demands in cities are mixed all over the network, contrary to smaller villages where demands are clearly sectorised in residential neighbourhoods, commercial zones and industrial sectors. Demand pattern calibration has a final use for leakage detection and isolation. Detecting a leakage in a pattern that covers nodes spread all over the network makes the isolation unfeasible. Besides, demands in the same zone may be more similar due to the common pressure of the area rather than for the type of contract. For this reason, the demand pattern calibration methodology is applied to a real network with synthetic non-geographic demands for calibrating geographic demand patterns. The results are compared with a previous work where the calibrated patterns were also non-geographic.

Comportamento de fundações superficiais apoiadas em aterros estabilizados com resíduos industriais

Neste trabalho foi estudado o comportamento de fundações superficiais apoiadas em sistema de dupla camada, quando a superior é cimentada. O estudo consistiu-se de três etapas, chamadas de Etapa de Laboratório, Etapa Numérica e Etapa de Campo. Na Etapa de Laboratório foi verificada a viabilidade técnica de utilizar os resíduos industriais cinza pesada e cal de carbureto na estabilização de um solo residual de arenito botucatu. Estudou-se a reatividade da cinza pesada com a cal de carbureto, a influência da temperatura e do tempo de cura no desenvolvimento das reações pozolânicas, a influência de diferentes teores de resíduos na resistência à compressão simples, compressão diametral e durabilidade, objetivando definir uma mistura ótima e, ainda, o impacto ambiental da utilização da mistura ótima, através de ensaios de lixiviação e solubilização. Na Etapa Numérica foi estudado, através do Método dos Elementos Finitos, o comportamento de fundações superficiais apoiadas em dupla camada. O modelo utilizado para representar o comportamento do material cimentado e não-cimentado foi o elástico-plástico com critério de ruptura de Drucker-Prager e fluxo não-associado. Verificou-se, através de análise paramétrica, a influência da espessura da camada cimentada e do diâmetro da fundação, bem como a influência dos parâmetros dos materiais cimentado e não-cimentado na resposta carga x recalque de fundações superficiais. Na Etapa de Campo foram construídos aterros experimentais utilizando a mistura ótima determinada na Etapa de Laboratório e, sobre estes aterros, foram executados provas de carga de placas. A análise dos resultados obtidos nas três etapas levou às seguintes conclusões: é possível utilizar cinza pesada e cal de carbureto para estabilizar o solo residual de botucatu; o comportamento de fundações superficiais sobre solos cimentados é controlado pela relação espessura da camada cimentada diâmetro da fundação; os parâmetros ângulo de atrito e módulo de elasticidade da camada cimentada não influenciam os resultados de prova de carga; a ruptura da fundação é função de dois mecanismos progressivos, os quais são função das tensões de tração geradas na parte inferior da camada cimentada e das tensões cisalhantes existentes logo abaixo das bordas da fundação.

On the effects of non-tariff measures on Brazilian exports

This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating the effects of non-tariff measures on trade flows, based on the recent literature on gravity models. A two-stage Heckman selection model is applied to the case of Brazilian exports, where the second stage gravity equation is theoretically grounded on the seminal Melitz model of heterogeneous firms. This extended gravity equation highlights the role played by zero trade flows as well as firm heterogeneity in explaining bilateral trade among countries, two factors usually omitted in traditional gravity specifications found in previous literature. Last, it also proposes a economic rationale for the effects of NTM on trade flows, helping to shed some light on its main operating channels under a rather simple Cournot’s duopolistic competition framework.

On the effects of non tariff measures on Brazilian exports

This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating the effects of non-tariff measures on trade flows, based on the recent literature on gravity models. A two-stage Heckman selection model is applied to the case of Brazilian exports, where the second stage gravity equation is theoretically grounded on the seminal Melitz model of heterogeneous firms. This extended gravity equation highlights the role played by zero trade flows as well as firm heterogeneity in explaining bilateral trade among countries, two factors usually omitted in traditional gravity specifications found in previous literature. Last, it also proposes a economic rationale for the effects of NTM on trade flows, helping to shed some light on its main operating channels under a rather simple Cournot’s duopolistic competition framework