Learning Qualitative Models in the Presence of Noise

G. M. Coghill, S. M. Garrett and R. D. King (2002), Learning Qualitative Models in the Presence of Noise, QR'02 Workshop on Qualitative Reasoning

Volcanic air pollution and mortality in France 1783?1784

Grattan J.P., Rabartin, R., Self, S. & Thordarson, Th. 2005. Volcanic air pollution and mortality in France 1783-84. Comptes Rendu Geosciences. 641-651 This item is available in both English and French in the PDF file.

Invertebrates of ancient heavy metal spoil and smelting tip sites in southern Jordan: Thier distribution and use as bioindicators of metalliferous pollution derived from ancient sources

Pyatt, B. Amos, D. Grattan, J. Pyatt, A. Terrell-Nield, C. Invertebrates of ancient heavy metal spoil and smelting tip sites in southern Jordan: Thier distribution and use as bioindicators of metalliferous pollution derived from ancient sources. Journal of Arid Environments. 2002. 52 pp 53-62

Pollution and paradigms: lessons from Icelandic volcanism for continental flood basalt studies

Grattan, J. Pollution and paradigms: Lessons from Icelandic volcanism for continental flood basalt studies. Lithos. 2005. 79 pp 343-353

Geochemical evidence for atmospheric pollution derived from prehistoric copper mining at Copa hill, Cwmystwyth, mid-Wales. UK

Mighall, T. Abrahams, P. Grattan, J. Hayes, D. Timberlake, S. Forsyth, S. Geochemical evidence for atmospheric pollution derived from prehistoric copper mining at Copa Hill, Cwmystwyth, mid-Wales, UK. The Science of the Total Environment. 2002. 292 pp 69-80

The local and global dimensions of metalliferous pollution derived from a reconstruction of an eight thousand year record of copper smelting and mining at a desert-mountain frontier in southern Jordan

Grattan, J.P., Gilbertson, D.D., Hunt, C.O. (2007). The local and global dimensions of metaliferrous air pollution derived from a reconstruction of an 8 thousand year record of copper smelting and mining at a desert-mountain frontier in southern Jordan. Journal of Archaeological Science 34, 83-110

Littered with meaning: The problem of sign pollution in postmodern, post-structuralist, and ecocritical thought

Slocombe, W. (2005). Littered with meaning: The problem of sign pollution in postmodern, post-structuralist, and ecocritical thought. Textual Practice. 19 (4), 493-508. RAE2008

Exponential sensitivity of noise-driven switching in genetic networks

Cells are known to utilize biochemical noise to probabilistically switch between distinct gene expression states. We demonstrate that such noise-driven switching is dominated by tails of probability distributions and is therefore exponentially sensitive to changes in physiological parameters such as transcription and translation rates. However, provided mRNA lifetimes are short, switching can still be accurately simulated using protein-only models of gene expression. Exponential sensitivity limits the robustness of noise-driven switching, suggesting cells may use other mechanisms in order to switch reliably.

Statistical Properties of Single and Competing Non-Linear Fast-Slow Oscillators in Noise

Statistical properties offast-slow Ellias-Grossberg oscillators are studied in response to deterministic and noisy inputs. Oscillatory responses remain stable in noise due to the slow inhibitory variable, which establishes an adaptation level that centers the oscillatory responses of the fast excitatory variable to deterministic and noisy inputs. Competitive interactions between oscillators improve the stability in noise. Although individual oscillation amplitudes decrease with input amplitude, the average to'tal activity increases with input amplitude, thereby suggesting that oscillator output is evaluated by a slow process at downstream network sites.

Sequential anomaly detection in the presence of noise and limited feedback

This paper describes a methodology for detecting anomalies from sequentially observed and potentially noisy data. The proposed approach consists of two main elements: 1) filtering, or assigning a belief or likelihood to each successive measurement based upon our ability to predict it from previous noisy observations and 2) hedging, or flagging potential anomalies by comparing the current belief against a time-varying and data-adaptive threshold. The threshold is adjusted based on the available feedback from an end user. Our algorithms, which combine universal prediction with recent work on online convex programming, do not require computing posterior distributions given all current observations and involve simple primal-dual parameter updates. At the heart of the proposed approach lie exponential-family models which can be used in a wide variety of contexts and applications, and which yield methods that achieve sublinear per-round regret against both static and slowly varying product distributions with marginals drawn from the same exponential family. Moreover, the regret against static distributions coincides with the minimax value of the corresponding online strongly convex game. We also prove bounds on the number of mistakes made during the hedging step relative to the best offline choice of the threshold with access to all estimated beliefs and feedback signals. We validate the theory on synthetic data drawn from a time-varying distribution over binary vectors of high dimensionality, as well as on the Enron email dataset. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

Agglomeration effects in foreign direct investment and the pollution haven hypothesis

Does environmental regulation impair international competitiveness of pollution-intensive industries to the extent that they relocate to countries with less stringent regulation, turning those countries into "pollution havens"? We test this hypothesis using panel data on outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows of various industries in the German manufacturing sector and account for several econometric issues that have been ignored in previous studies. Most importantly, we demonstrate that externalities associated with FDI agglomeration can bias estimates away from finding a pollution haven effect if omitted from the analysis. We include the stock of inward FDI as a proxy for agglomeration and employ a GMM estimator to control for endogenous time-varying determinants of FDI flows. Furthermore, we propose a difference estimator based on the least polluting industry to break the possible correlation between environmental regulatory stringency and unobservable attributes of FDI recipients in the cross-section. When accounting for these issues we find robust evidence of a pollution haven effect for the chemical industry. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

High-fidelity, broadband stimulated-Brillouin-scattering-based slow light using fast noise modulation.

We demonstrate a 5-GHz-broadband tunable slow-light device based on stimulated Brillouin scattering in a standard highly-nonlinear optical fiber pumped by a noise-current-modulated laser beam. The noisemodulation waveform uses an optimized pseudo-random distribution of the laser drive voltage to obtain an optimal flat-topped gain profile, which minimizes the pulse distortion and maximizes pulse delay for a given pump power. In comparison with a previous slow-modulation method, eye-diagram and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) analysis show that this broadband slow-light technique significantly increases the fidelity of a delayed data sequence, while maintaining the delay performance. A fractional delay of 0.81 with a SNR of 5.2 is achieved at the pump power of 350 mW using a 2-km-long highly nonlinear fiber with the fast noise-modulation method, demonstrating a 50% increase in eye-opening and a 36% increase in SNR in the comparison.

Invariant measure selection by noise. An example

We consider a deterministic system with two conserved quantities and infinity many invariant measures. However the systems possess a unique invariant measure when enough stochastic forcing and balancing dissipation are added. We then show that as the forcing and dissipation are removed a unique limit of the deterministic system is selected. The exact structure of the limiting measure depends on the specifics of the stochastic forcing.

Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.