Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

Clarifying the Quadrennial Needs Study Process, December 1993

The Quadrennial Needs Study was developed to assist in the identification of highway needs and the distribution of road funds in Iowa among the various highway entities. During the period 1978 to 1990, the process has seen large shifts in needs and associated funding distribution in individual counties with no apparent reasons. This study investigated the reasons for such shifts. The study identified program inputs that can result in major shifts in needs either up or down from minor changes in the input values. The areas of concern were identified as the condition ratings for roads and structures, traffic volume and mix counts, and the assignment of construction cost areas. Eight counties exhibiting the large shifts (greater than 30%) in needs over time were used to test the sensitivity of the variables. A ninth county was used as the base line for the study. Recommendations are identified for improvements in the process of data collection in the areas of road and structure condition--rating, traffic, and in the assignment of construction cost areas. Advice is also offered in how to account for changes in jurisdiction between successive studies. Maintenance cost area assignment and levels of maintenance service are identified as requiring additional detailed research.

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Neurogenic subventricular zone stem/progenitor cells are notch1-dependent in their active but not quiescent state.

The adult mammalian forebrain contains neural stem/progenitor cells (NSCs) that generate neurons throughout life. As in other somatic stem cell systems, NSCs are proposed to be predominantly quiescent and proliferate only sporadically to produce more committed progeny. However, quiescence has recently been shown not to be an essential criterion for stem cells. It is not known whether NSCs show differences in molecular dependence based on their proliferation state. The subventricular zone (SVZ) of the adult mouse brain has a remarkable capacity for repair by activation of NSCs. The molecular interplay controlling adult NSCs during neurogenesis or regeneration is not clear but resolving these interactions is critical in order to understand brain homeostasis and repair. Using conditional genetics and fate mapping, we show that Notch signaling is essential for neurogenesis in the SVZ. By mosaic analysis, we uncovered a surprising difference in Notch dependence between active neurogenic and regenerative NSCs. While both active and regenerative NSCs depend upon canonical Notch signaling, Notch1-deletion results in a selective loss of active NSCs (aNSCs). In sharp contrast, quiescent NSCs (qNSCs) remain after Notch1 ablation until induced during regeneration or aging, whereupon they become Notch1-dependent and fail to fully reinstate neurogenesis. Our results suggest that Notch1 is a key component of the adult SVZ niche, promoting maintenance of aNSCs, and that this function is compensated in qNSCs. Therefore, we confirm the importance of Notch signaling for maintaining NSCs and neurogenesis in the adult SVZ and reveal that NSCs display a selective reliance on Notch1 that may be dictated by mitotic state.

Monte Carlo simulation of kilovolt electron transport in solids

A Monte Carlo procedure to simulate the penetration and energy loss of low¿energy electron beams through solids is presented. Elastic collisions are described by using the method of partial waves for the screened Coulomb field of the nucleus. The atomic charge density is approximated by an analytical expression with parameters determined from the Dirac¿Hartree¿Fock¿Slater self¿consistent density obtained under Wigner¿Seitz boundary conditions in order to account for solid¿state effects; exchange effects are also accounted for by an energy¿dependent local correction. Elastic differential cross sections are then easily computed by combining the WKB and Born approximations to evaluate the phase shifts. Inelastic collisions are treated on the basis of a generalized oscillator strength model which gives inelastic mean free paths and stopping powers in good agreement with experimental data. This scattering model is accurate in the energy range from a few hundred eV up to about 50 keV. The reliability of the simulation method is analyzed by comparing simulation results and experimental data from backscattering and transmission measurements.

Elastic scattering of fast electrons and positrons by atoms

Elastic scattering of relativistic electrons and positrons by atoms is considered in the framework of the static field approximation. The scattering field is expressed as a sum of Yukawa terms to allow the use of various approximations. Accurate phase shifts have been computed by combining Bühring¿s power-series method with the WKB and Born approximations. This combined procedure allows the evaluation of differential cross sections for kinetic energies up to several tens of MeV. Numerical results are used to analyze the validity of several approximate methods, namely the first- and second-order Born approximations and the screened Mott formula, which are frequently adopted as the basis of multiple scattering theories and Monte Carlo simulations of electron and positron transport.

Parvalbumin interneurons mediate neuronal circuitry-neurogenesis coupling in the adult hippocampus.

Using immunohistology, electron microscopy, electrophysiology and optogenetics, we found that proliferating adult mouse hippocampal neural precursors received immature GABAergic synaptic inputs from parvalbumin-expressing interneurons. Recently shown to suppress adult quiescent neural stem cell activation, parvalbumin interneuron activation promoted newborn neuronal progeny survival and development. Our results suggest a niche mechanism involving parvalbumin interneurons that couples local circuit activity to the diametric regulation of two critical early phases of adult hippocampal neurogenesis.

Retrospective feasibility study of simultaneous integrated boost in cervical cancer using Tomotherapy: the impact of organ motion and tumor regression.

BACKGROUND: Whole pelvis intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) is increasingly being used to treat cervical cancer aiming to reduce side effects. Encouraged by this, some groups have proposed the use of simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) to target the tumor, either to get a higher tumoricidal effect or to replace brachytherapy. Nevertheless, physiological organ movement and rapid tumor regression throughout treatment might substantially reduce any benefit of this approach. PURPOSE: To evaluate the clinical target volume - simultaneous integrated boost (CTV-SIB) regression and motion during chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) for cervical cancer, and to monitor treatment progress dosimetrically and volumetrically to ensure treatment goals are met. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Ten patients treated with standard doses of CRT and brachytherapy were retrospectively re-planned using a helical Tomotherapy - SIB technique for the hypothetical scenario of this feasibility study. Target and organs at risk (OAR) were contoured on deformable fused planning-computed tomography and megavoltage computed tomography images. The CTV-SIB volume regression was determined. The center of mass (CM) was used to evaluate the degree of motion. The Dice's similarity coefficient (DSC) was used to assess the spatial overlap of CTV-SIBs between scans. A cumulative dose-volume histogram modeled estimated delivered doses. RESULTS: The CTV-SIB relative reduction was between 31 and 70%. The mean maximum CM change was 12.5, 9, and 3 mm in the superior-inferior, antero-posterior, and right-left dimensions, respectively. The CTV-SIB-DSC approached 1 in the first week of treatment, indicating almost perfect overlap. CTV-SIB-DSC regressed linearly during therapy, and by the end of treatment was 0.5, indicating 50% discordance. Two patients received less than 95% of the prescribed dose. Much higher doses to the OAR were observed. A multiple regression analysis showed a significant interaction between CTV-SIB reduction and OAR dose increase. CONCLUSIONS: The CTV-SIB had important regression and motion during CRT, receiving lower therapeutic doses than expected. The OAR had unpredictable shifts and received higher doses. The use of SIB without frequent adaptation of the treatment plan exposes cervical cancer patients to an unpredictable risk of under-dosing the target and/or overdosing adjacent critical structures. In that scenario, brachytherapy continues to be the gold standard approach.

Influence of the dipolar interactions in the magnetization reversal asymmetry of hard-soft magnetic ribbons

Partial crystallization of the metallic glass Co66Si16B12Fe4Mo2 was performed by annealing at temperatures between 500 and 540°C for 10-20 min, resulting in crystallite volume fractions of (0.7-5)×10¿3 and sizes of 50-100 nm. This two-phase alloy presents a remarkable feature: a hysteresis loop shift that can be tailored by simply premagnetizing the sample in the adequate magnetic field. Shifts as large as five times the coercive field have been obtained which make them interesting for application as magnetic cores in dc pulse transformers. The asymetrical magnetic reversal is explained in terms of the magnetic dipolar field interaction and the observed hysteresis loops have been satisfactorily simulated by a modification of Stoner-Wohlfarth¿s model of coherent rotations.

Loop bifurcation and magnetization rotation in exchange-biased Ni/FeF2

Exchange-biased Ni/FeF2 films have been investigated using vector coil vibrating-sample magnetometry as a function of the cooling field strength HFC . In films with epitaxial FeF2 , a loop bifurcation develops with increasing HFC as it divides into two sub-loops shifted oppositely from zero field by the same amount. The positively biased sub-loop grows in size with HFC until only a single positively shifted loop is found. Throughout this process, the negative and positive (sub)loop shifts maintain the same discrete value. This is in sharp contrast to films with twinned FeF2 where the exchange field gradually changes with increasing HFC . The transverse magnetization shows clear correlations with the longitudinal subloops. Interestingly, over 85% of the Ni reverses its magnetization by rotation, either in one step or through two successive rotations. These results are due to the single-crystal nature of the antiferromagnetic FeF2 , which breaks down into two opposite regions of large domains.

Microscopic origin of exchange bias in core/shell nanoparticles

We report the results of Monte Carlo simulations with the aim to clarify the microscopic origin of exchange bias in the magnetization hysteresis loops of a model of individual core/shell nanoparticles. Increase of the exchange coupling across the core/shell interface leads to an enhancement of exchange bias and to an increasing asymmetry between the two branches of the loops which is due to different reversal mechanisms. A detailed study of the magnetic order of the interfacial spins shows compelling evidence that the existence of a net magnetization due to uncompensated spins at the shell interface is responsible for both phenomena and allows to quantify the loop shifts directly in terms of microscopic parameters with striking agreement with the macroscopic observed values.

Evolution of proteins after whole-genome duplication

Evolution of proteins after whole-genome duplicationGene and genome duplication are considered major mechanisms in the creation of newfunctions in genomes, or in the refinement of networks by the division of function amongmore genes. In animals, the best demonstrated whole genome duplication occurred at theorigin of Teleost fishes. This makes fishes an ideal model to study the consequences ofgenome duplication, particularly since we have a good sampling of genome sequences,abundant functional information, and a very well studied outgroup: the tetrapodes (includinghuman). More specifically, I studied the consequences of duplication on proteins usingevolutionary models to infer adaptive events. I analysed the influence of positive selection invertebrate genes, by contrasting singleton genes and duplicated genes. The conclusion of theanalyses was threefold: (i) positive selection affects diverse phylogenetic branches anddiverse gene categories during vertebrate evolution; (ii) it concerns only a small proportion ofsites (1%-5%); and (iii) whole genome duplication had no detectable impact on theprevalence of this positive selection.I also studied evolution at the amino acid level with different methods to detect functionalshifts (covarion process and constant-but-different process). As in my previous research, Ifound similar numbers of functional shifts between duplicates and between orthologs.The accepted framework for studies of molecular evolution is that orthologs share the samefunction, whereas the function of paralogs diverges. This framework gives a special place togene duplication in evolution, as the main mechanism for generating novelty. With myprevious results showing that duplication and speciation are not so different, we investigatedthe literature to question the evidence for similar or divergent evolution of gene function afterduplication relative to speciation genes. This led us to propose a more rigorous design offuture studies of gene duplication.Finally, based on my automated protocol, we built a database of positive selection invertebrates' genes, Selectome. This database is freely available on the web and will helpfuture evolutionary as well as biochemical studies.

Toward synthetic combinatorial peptide libraries in positional scanning format (PS-SCL)-based identification of CD8+ Tumor-reactive T-Cell Ligands: a comparative analysis of PS-SCL recognition by a single tumor-reactive CD8+ cytolytic T-lymphocyte clone.

The use of synthetic combinatorial peptide libraries in positional scanning format (PS-SCL) has emerged recently as an alternative approach for the identification of peptides recognized by T lymphocytes. The choice of both the PS-SCL used for screening experiments and the method used for data analysis are crucial for implementing this approach. With this aim, we tested the recognition of different PS-SCL by a tyrosinase 368-376-specific CTL clone and analyzed the data obtained with a recently developed biometric data analysis based on a model of independent and additive contribution of individual amino acids to peptide antigen recognition. Mixtures defined with amino acids present at the corresponding positions in the native sequence were among the most active for all of the libraries. Somewhat surprisingly, a higher number of native amino acids were identifiable by using amidated COOH-terminal rather than free COOH-terminal PS-SCL. Also, our data clearly indicate that when using PS-SCL longer than optimal, frame shifts occur frequently and should be taken into account. Biometric analysis of the data obtained with the amidated COOH-terminal nonapeptide library allowed the identification of the native ligand as the sequence with the highest score in a public human protein database. However, the adequacy of the PS-SCL data for the identification for the peptide ligand varied depending on the PS-SCL used. Altogether these results provide insight into the potential of PS-SCL for the identification of CTL-defined tumor-derived antigenic sequences and may significantly implement our ability to interpret the results of these analyses.

EFFECT OF WATER AVAILABILITY ON SOIL MICROBIAL BIOMASS IN SECONDARY FOREST IN EASTERN AMAZONIA

Soil microbial biomass (SMB) plays an important role in nutrient cycling in agroecosystems, and is limited by several factors, such as soil water availability. This study assessed the effects of soil water availability on microbial biomass and its variation over time in the Latossolo Amarelo concrecionário of a secondary forest in eastern Amazonia. The fumigation-extraction method was used to estimate the soil microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen content (SMBC and SMBN). An adaptation of the fumigation-incubation method was used to determine basal respiration (CO2-SMB). The metabolic quotient (qCO2) and ratio of microbial carbon:organic carbon (CMIC:CORG) were calculated based on those results. Soil moisture was generally significantly lower during the dry season and in the control plots. Irrigation raised soil moisture to levels close to those observed during the rainy season, but had no significant effect on SMB. The variables did not vary on a seasonal basis, except for the microbial C/N ratio that suggested the occurrence of seasonal shifts in the structure of the microbial community.

The squeeze cell hypothesis for the activation of jasmonate synthesis in response to wounding

Jasmonates are lipid mediators that control defence gene expression in response to wounding and other environmental stresses. These small molecules can accumulate at distances up to several cm from sites of damage and this is likely to involve cell-to-cell jasmonate transport. Also, and independently of jasmonate synthesis, transport and perception, different long-distance wound signals that stimulate distal jasmonate synthesis are propagated at apparent speeds of several cmmin(-1) to tissues distal to wounds in a mechanism that involves clade 3 GLUTAMATE RECEPTOR-LIKE (GLR) genes. A search for jasmonate synthesis enzymes that might decode these signals revealed LOX6, a lipoxygenase that is necessary for much of the rapid accumulation of jasmonic acid at sites distal to wounds. Intriguingly, the LOX6 promoter is expressed in a distinct niche of cells that are adjacent to mature xylem vessels, a location that would make these contact cells sensitive to the release of xylem water column tension upon wounding. We propose a model in which rapid axial changes in xylem hydrostatic pressure caused by wounding travel through the vasculature and lead to slower, radially dispersed pressure changes that act in a clade 3 GLR-dependent mechanism to promote distal jasmonate synthesis.