Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Mutation screening of multiple genes in Spanish patients with autosomal recessive retinitis pigmentosa by targeted resequencing.

Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP) is a heterogeneous group of inherited retinal dystrophies characterised ultimately by the loss of photoreceptor cells. RP is the leading cause of visual loss in individuals younger than 60 years, with a prevalence of about 1 in 4000. The molecular genetic diagnosis of autosomal recessive RP (arRP) is challenging due to the large genetic and clinical heterogeneity. Traditional methods for sequencing arRP genes are often laborious and not easily available and a screening technique that enables the rapid detection of the genetic cause would be very helpful in the clinical practice. The goal of this study was to develop and apply microarray-based resequencing technology capable of detecting both known and novel mutations on a single high-throughput platform. Hence, the coding regions and exon/intron boundaries of 16 arRP genes were resequenced using microarrays in 102 Spanish patients with clinical diagnosis of arRP. All the detected variations were confirmed by direct sequencing and potential pathogenicity was assessed by functional predictions and frequency in controls. For validation purposes 4 positive controls for variants consisting of previously identified changes were hybridized on the array. As a result of the screening, we detected 44 variants, of which 15 are very likely pathogenic detected in 14 arRP families (14%). Finally, the design of this array can easily be transformed in an equivalent diagnostic system based on targeted enrichment followed by next generation sequencing.

Scoring Methods for Ordinal Multidimensional Forced-Choice Items

In most psychological tests and questionnaires, a test score is obtained bytaking the sum of the item scores. In virtually all cases where the test orquestionnaire contains multidimensional forced-choice items, this traditionalscoring method is also applied. We argue that the summation of scores obtained with multidimensional forced-choice items produces uninterpretabletest scores. Therefore, we propose three alternative scoring methods: a weakand a strict rank preserving scoring method, which both allow an ordinalinterpretation of test scores; and a ratio preserving scoring method, whichallows a proportional interpretation of test scores. Each proposed scoringmethod yields an index for each respondent indicating the degree to whichthe response pattern is inconsistent. Analysis of real data showed that withrespect to rank preservation, the weak and strict rank preserving methodresulted in lower inconsistency indices than the traditional scoring method;with respect to ratio preservation, the ratio preserving scoring method resulted in lower inconsistency indices than the traditional scoring method

Validation of the spanish version of the multiple sclerosis international quality of life (musiqol) questionnaire

BACKGROUND: The Multiple Sclerosis International Quality Of Life (MusiQoL) questionnaire, a 31-item, multidimensional, self-administrated questionnaire that is available in 14 languages including Spanish, has been validated using a large international sample. We investigated the validity and reliability of the Spanish version of MusiQoL in Spain. METHODS: Consecutive patients with different types and severities of multiple sclerosis (MS) were recruited from 22 centres across Spain. All patients completed the MusiQoL questionnaire, the 36-Item Short Form (SF-36) health survey, and a symptoms checklist at baseline and 21 days later. External validity, internal consistency, reliability and reproducibility were tested. RESULTS: A total of 224 Spanish patients were evaluated. Dimensions of MusiQoL generally demonstrated a high internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha: 0.70-0.92 for all but two MusiQoL domain scores). External validity testing revealed that the MusiQoL index score correlated significantly with all SF-36 dimension scores (Pearson's correlation: 0.46-0.76), reproducibility was satisfactory (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.60-0.91), acceptability was high, and the time taken to complete the 31-item questionnaire was reasonable (mean [standard deviation]: 9.8 [11.8] minutes). CONCLUSIONS: The Spanish version of the MusiQoL questionnaire appears to be a valid and reliable instrument for measuring quality of life in patients with MS in Spain and constitutes a useful instrument to measure health-related quality of life in the clinical setting.

Multiple sclerosis risk variant HLA-DRB1*1501 associates with high expression of DRB1 gene in different human populations.

The human leukocyte antigen (HLA) DRB1*1501 has been consistently associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) in nearly all populations tested. This points to a specific antigen presentation as the pathogenic mechanism though this does not fully explain the disease association. The identification of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) for genes in the HLA locus poses the question of the role of gene expression in MS susceptibility. We analyzed the eQTLs in the HLA region with respect to MS-associated HLA-variants obtained from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We found that the Tag of DRB1*1501, rs3135388 A allele, correlated with high expression of DRB1, DRB5 and DQB1 genes in a Caucasian population. In quantitative terms, the MS-risk AA genotype carriers of rs3135388 were associated with 15.7-, 5.2- and 8.3-fold higher expression of DQB1, DRB5 and DRB1, respectively, than the non-risk GG carriers. The haplotype analysis of expression-associated variants in a Spanish MS cohort revealed that high expression of DRB1 and DQB1 alone did not contribute to the disease. However, in Caucasian, Asian and African American populations, the DRB1*1501 allele was always highly expressed. In other immune related diseases such as type 1 diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, ulcerative colitis, asthma and IgA deficiency, the best GWAS-associated HLA SNPs were also eQTLs for different HLA Class II genes. Our data suggest that the DR/DQ expression levels, together with specific structural properties of alleles, seem to be the causal effect in MS and in other immunopathologies rather than specific antigen presentation alone.

CD40: Novel Association with Crohn's Disease and Replication in Multiple Sclerosis Susceptibility

Background: A functional polymorphism located at 21 from the start codon of the CD40 gene, rs1883832, was previously reported to disrupt a Kozak sequence essential for translation. It has been consistently associated with Graves’ disease risk in populations of different ethnicity and genetic proxies of this variant evaluated in genome-wide association studies have shown evidence of an effect in rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility. However, the protective allele associated with Graves’ disease or rheumatoid arthritis has shown a risk role in MS, an effect that we aimed to replicate in the present work. We hypothesized that this functional polymorphism might also show an association with other complex autoimmune condition such as inflammatory bowel disease, given the CD40 overexpression previously observed in Crohn’s disease (CD) lesions. Methodology: Genotyping of rs1883832C.T was performed in 1564 MS, 1102 CD and 969 ulcerative colitis (UC) Spanish patients and in 2948 ethnically matched controls by TaqMan chemistry. Principal Findings: The observed effect of the minor allele rs1883832T was replicated in our independent Spanish MS cohort [p= 0.025; OR (95% CI)= 1.12 (1.01–1.23)]. The frequency of the minor allele was also significantly higher in CD patients than in controls [p= 0.002; OR (95% CI)= 1.19 (1.06–1.33)]. This increased predisposition was not detected in UC patients [p= 0.5; OR (95% CI)= 1.04 (0.93–1.17)]. Conclusion: The impact of CD40 rs1883832 on MS and CD risk points to a common signaling shared by these autoimmune conditions

Usefulness of late enhancement MRI as diagnostic tool to differentiate myocardial infarction from myocarditis

Introduction: Residual pulmonary artery (PA) anomalies are a major concern after surgery for cono-truncal malformations. This study sought to assess residual PA anomalies using MRI/MRA. Methods: 43 MRI/MRA studies were performed in 37 patients after corrective surgery for cono-truncal malformations. MRI/MRA studies comprised spin-echo, cine, velocity-encoded and 3D Gadolinium-enhanced MRA sequences. Residual PA anomalies were searched in ail patients; angiographie data were available in 13 patients and a comparison with MRI/MRA was made. Results: 32/37 patients had postoperative anomalies of the pulmonary arterial tree. Left pulmonary artery stenosis was the most common finding (14/32), followed by stenosis at multiple sites (11/32). Isolated right pulmonary artery stenosis was rare (2/32). The median time interval between MRI/MRA and angiography in the 13 patients undergoing both types of studies was 54 days. The findings between the two examinations were identical regarding stenoses and collateral vessels. In 4 patients, the MRI/MRA study allowed to plan interventional catheterization with balloon dilatation and/or stenting of the obstructed arteries or co il-occlusion of systemic collaterals. Eleven patients had additional surgery based on MRI/MRA findings. Conclusions: Post-operative anomalies of the PA in cono-truncal malformations can reliably be detected with MRI/MRA. This technique allows planning of the intervention al or surgical procedure to correct the residual anomalies and may th us replace or precede catheterization during the follow-up of surgically corrected cono-truncal malformations.

Beyond the Transatlantic Divide: The Multiple Authorities of Standards in the Global Political Economy of Services

This paper explores the plurality of institutional environments in which standards for the service sector are expected to support the rise of a global knowledge-based economy. Despite the careful wording of the World Trade Organization (WTO), a whole range of international bodies still have the capacity to define technical specifications affecting how services are expected to be traded on worldwide basis. The analysis relies on global political economy approaches to extend to the area of service standards the assumption that the process of globalization is not opposing states and markets, but a joint expression of both of them including new patterns and agents of structural change through formal and informal power and regulatory practices. It analyses on a cross-institutional basis patterns of authority in the institutional setting of service standards in the context of the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO), the European Union, and the United States. In contrast to conventional views opposing the American system to the ISO/European framework, the paper questions the robustness of this opposition by showing that institutional developments of service standards are likely to face trade-offs and compromises across those systems and between two opposing models of standardisation.

Neuropsychiatrie de l'épilepsie, des accidents vasculaires cérébraux, de la maladie de Parkinson et de la sclérose en plaques [Neuropsychiatry of epilepsy, stroke, Parkinson's disease and multiple sclerosis]

L'étude du comportement au sens large fait partie intégrante de l'examen neurologique classique. Cet article présente une revue des manifestations comportementales et thymiques dans l'épilepsie, l'accident vasculaire cérébral, la maladie de Parkinson et la sclérose en plaques. The assessement of behavior is common part of the neurological examination. This article reviews the behavioral and mood manifestations in four classical syndroms: Epilepsy, stroke, Parkinson's disease and multiple sclerosis

Multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids for preterm birth (MACS): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: One course of antenatal corticosteroids reduces the risk of respiratory distress syndrome and neonatal death. Weekly doses given to women who remain undelivered after a single course may have benefits (less respiratory morbidity) or cause harm (reduced growth in utero). We aimed to find out whether multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids would reduce neonatal morbidity and mortality without adversely affecting fetal growth. METHODS: 1858 women at 25-32 weeks' gestation who remained undelivered 14-21 days after an initial course of antenatal corticosteroids and continued to be at high risk of preterm birth were randomly assigned to multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids (n=937) or placebo (n=921), every 14 days until week 33 or delivery, whichever came first. The primary outcome was a composite of perinatal or neonatal mortality, severe respiratory distress syndrome, intraventricular haemorrhage (grade III or IV), periventricular leucomalacia, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, or necrotising enterocolitis. Analysis was by intention to treat. All patients and caregivers were unaware of the treatment given. This trial is registered as number ISRCTN2654148. FINDINGS: Infants exposed to multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids had similar morbidity and mortality to those exposed to placebo (150 [12.9%] vs 143 [12.5%]). Those receiving multiple doses of corticosteroids also weighed less at birth than those exposed to placebo (2216 g vs 2330 g, p=0.0026), were shorter (44.5 cm vs 45.4 cm, p<0.001), and had a smaller head circumference (31.1 cm vs 31.7 cm, p<0.001). INTERPRETATION: Multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids, every 14 days, do not improve preterm-birth outcomes, and are associated with a decreased weight, length, and head circumference at birth. Therefore, this treatment schedule is not recommended. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

A compositional data analysis package for R providing multiple approaches

”compositions” is a new R-package for the analysis of compositional and positive data.It contains four classes corresponding to the four different types of compositional andpositive geometry (including the Aitchison geometry). It provides means for computation,plotting and high-level multivariate statistical analysis in all four geometries.These geometries are treated in an fully analogous way, based on the principle of workingin coordinates, and the object-oriented programming paradigm of R. In this way,called functions automatically select the most appropriate type of analysis as a functionof the geometry. The graphical capabilities include ternary diagrams and tetrahedrons,various compositional plots (boxplots, barplots, piecharts) and extensive graphical toolsfor principal components. Afterwards, ortion and proportion lines, straight lines andellipses in all geometries can be added to plots. The package is accompanied by ahands-on-introduction, documentation for every function, demos of the graphical capabilitiesand plenty of usage examples. It allows direct and parallel computation inall four vector spaces and provides the beginner with a copy-and-paste style of dataanalysis, while letting advanced users keep the functionality and customizability theydemand of R, as well as all necessary tools to add own analysis routines. A completeexample is included in the appendix

Potential risk factors for multiple sclerosis in Rio de Janeiro: a case-control study.

PURPOSE. To evaluate potential risk factors for the development of multiple sclerosis in Brazilian patients. METHOD. A case control study was carried out in 81 patients enrolled at the Department of Neurology of the Hospital da Lagoa in Rio de Janeiro, and 81 paired controls. A standardized questionnaire on demographic, social and cultural variables, and medical and family history was used. Statistical analysis was performed using descriptive statistics and conditional logistic regression models with the SPSS for Windows software program. RESULTS. Having standard vaccinations (vaccinations specified by the Brazilian government) (OR=16.2; 95% CI=2.3-115.2), smoking (OR=7.6; 95% CI=2.1-28.2), being single (OR=4.7; 95% CI=1.4-15.6) and eating animal brain (OR=3.4; 95% CI=1.2-9.8) increased the risk of developing MS. CONCLUSIONS. RESULTS of this study may contribute towards better awareness of the epidemiological characteristics of Brazilian patients with multiple sclerosis.

Freedom of choice of specialist physicians is important to Swiss resident: a cross-sectional study.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: To assess how important the possibility to choose specialist physicians is for Swiss residents and to determine which variables are associated with this opinion. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used data from the 2007 Swiss population-based health survey and included 13,642 non-institutionalised adults who responded to the telephone and paper questionnaires. The dependent variable included answers to the question "How important is it for you to be able to choose the specialist you would like to visit?" Independent variables included socio-demographics, health and past year healthcare use measures. Crude and adjusted logistic regressions for the importance of being able to choose specialist physicians were performed, accounting for the survey design. RESULTS: 45% of participants found it very important to be able to choose the specialist physician they wanted to visit. The answers "rather important", "rather not important" and "not important" were reported by 28%, 20% and 7% of respondents. Women, individuals in middle/high executive position, those with an ordinary insurance scheme, those reporting ≥2 chronic conditions or poorer subjective health, or those who had had ≥2 outpatient visits in the preceding year were more likely to find this choice very important. CONCLUSIONS: In 2007, almost half of all Swiss residents found it very important to be able to choose his/her specialist physician. The further development of physician networks or other chronic disease management initiatives in Switzerland, towards integrated care, need to pay attention to the freedom of choice of specialist physicians that Swiss residents value. Future surveys should provide information on access and consultations with specialist physicians.