Towards a Better Modelling and Assessment of Construction Risk: Insights from a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.

A three dimensional finite volume approach to the thermo-mechanical modelling of the shape casting of metals

This paper presents a three dimensional, thermos-mechanical modelling approach to the cooling and solidification phases associated with the shape casting of metals ei. Die, sand and investment casting. Novel vortex-based Finite Volume (FV) methods are described and employed with regard to the small strain, non-linear Computational Solid Mechanics (CSM) capabilities required to model shape casting. The CSM capabilities include the non-linear material phenomena of creep and thermo-elasto-visco-plasticity at high temperatures and thermo-elasto-visco-plasticity at low temperatures and also multi body deformable contact with which can occur between the metal casting of the mould. The vortex-based FV methods, which can be readily applied to unstructured meshes, are included within a comprehensive FV modelling framework, PHYSICA. The additional heat transfer, by conduction and convection, filling, porosity and solidification algorithms existing within PHYSICA for the complete modelling of all shape casting process employ cell-centred FV methods. The termo-mechanical coupling is performed in a staggered incremental fashion, which addresses the possible gap formation between the component and the mould, and is ultimately validated against a variety of shape casting benchmarks.

Modelling inter-body contacts in a multiphysics framework

Abstract not available.

Solar magnetic carpet III: coronal modelling of synthetic magnetograms

This article is the third in a series working towards the construction of a realistic, evolving, non-linear force-free coronal-field model for the solar magnetic carpet. Here, we present preliminary results of 3D time-dependent simulations of the small-scale coronal field of the magnetic carpet. Four simulations are considered, each with the same evolving photospheric boundary condition: a 48-hour time series of synthetic magnetograms produced from the model of Meyer et al. ( Solar Phys. 272, 29, 2011). Three simulations include a uniform, overlying coronal magnetic field of differing strength, the fourth simulation includes no overlying field. The build-up, storage, and dissipation of magnetic energy within the simulations is studied. In particular, we study their dependence upon the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field and the strength of the overlying coronal field. We also consider where energy is stored and dissipated within the coronal field. The free magnetic energy built up is found to be more than sufficient to power small-scale, transient phenomena such as nanoflares and X-ray bright points, with the bulk of the free energy found to be stored low down, between 0.5 - 0.8 Mm. The energy dissipated is currently found to be too small to account for the heating of the entire quiet-Sun corona. However, the form and location of energy-dissipation regions qualitatively agree with what is observed on small scales on the Sun. Future MHD modelling using the same synthetic magnetograms may lead to a higher energy release.

In silico metabolic modelling of Saccharomyces cerevisiae for the overproduction of succinate using OptKnock and OptGene

Succinate is a naturally occurring metabolite in organism’s cell and is industrially important chemical with various applications in food and pharmaceutical industry. It is also widely used to produce bio-degradable plastics, surfactants, detergents etc. In last decades, emphasis has been given to bio-based chemical production using industrial biotechnology route rather than fossil-based production considering sustainability and environment friendly economy. In this thesis I am presenting a computational model for silico metabolic engineering of Saccharomyces cerevisiae for large scale production of succinate. For metabolic modelling, I have used OptKnock and OptGene optimization algorithms to identify the reactions to delete from the genome-scale metabolic model of S. cerevisiae to overproduce succinate by coupling with organism’s growth. Both OptKnock and OptGene proposed numerous straightforward and non-intuitive deletion strategies when number of constraints including growth constraint to the model were applied. The most interesting strategy identified by both algorithms was deletion combination of pyruvate decarboxylase and Ubiquinol:ferricytochrome c reductase(respiratory enzyme) reactions thereby also suggesting anaerobic fermentation of the organism in glucose medium. Such strategy was never reported earlier for growth-coupled succinate production in S.cerevisiae.

Design, modelling, simulation and integration of cyber physical systems: methods and applications

The main drivers for the development and evolution of Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) are the reduction of development costs and time along with the enhancement of the designed products. The aim of this survey paper is to provide an overview of different types of system and the associated transition process from mechatronics to CPS and cloud-based (IoT) systems. It will further consider the requirement that methodologies for CPS-design should be part of a multi-disciplinary development process within which designers should focus not only on the separate physical and computational components, but also on their integration and interaction. Challenges related to CPS-design are therefore considered in the paper from the perspectives of the physical processes, computation and integration respectively. Illustrative case studies are selected from different system levels starting with the description of the overlaying concept of Cyber Physical Production Systems (CPPSs). The analysis and evaluation of the specific properties of a sub-system using a condition monitoring system, important for the maintenance purposes, is then given for a wind turbine.

Dynamic multi-partitioning for parallel finite element applications

The central product of the DRAMA (Dynamic Re-Allocation of Meshes for parallel Finite Element Applications) project is a library comprising a variety of tools for dynamic re-partitioning of unstructured Finite Element (FE) applications. The input to the DRAMA library is the computational mesh, and corresponding costs, partitioned into sub-domains. The core library functions then perform a parallel computation of a mesh re-allocation that will re-balance the costs based on the DRAMA cost model. We discuss the basic features of this cost model, which allows a general approach to load identification, modelling and imbalance minimisation. Results from crash simulations are presented which show the necessity for multi-phase/multi-constraint partitioning components.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

A scale variational principle of Herglotz

The Herglotz problem is a generalization of the fundamental problem of the calculus of variations. In this paper, we consider a class of non-differentiable functions, where the dynamics is described by a scale derivative. Necessary conditions are derived to determine the optimal solution for the problem. Some other problems are considered, like transversality conditions, the multi-dimensional case, higher-order derivatives and for several independent variables.

Performance assessment of a vertical axis turbine in a marine current flume tank and CFD modelling

As advances in numerical modelling techniques support the increased confidence in predictions from computer simulations, the need remains to have experimental verification built into the design process. This paper outlines the experimental investigation carried out on a shielded vertical axis turbine in a marine environment. The experiments consist of performance measurements and the use of particle image velocimetry on a small scale device in a marine current flume. The results demonstrate that the performance of the device can be modelled numerically; in particular, the results show that the numerical model used can correctly predict the increase in performance with Reynolds number.

Ecoviability for small-scale fisheries in the context of food security constraints

This paper applies a stochastic viability approach to a tropical small-scale fishery, offering a theoretical and empirical example of ecosystem-based fishery management approach that accounts for food security. The model integrates multi-species, multi-fleet and uncertainty as well as profitability, food production, and demographic growth. It is calibrated over the period 2006–2010 using monthly catch and effort data from the French Guiana's coastal fishery, involving thirteen species and four fleets. Using projections at the horizon 2040, different management strategies and scenarios are compared from a viability viewpoint, thus accounting for biodiversity preservation, fleet profitability and food security. The analysis shows that under certain conditions, viable options can be identified which allow fishing intensity and production to be increased to respond to food security requirements but with minimum impacts on the marine resources.

Informing Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) with numerical modelling: A case-study on shellfish aquaculture in Malpeque Bay (Eastern Canada)

A moratorium on further bivalve leasing was established in 1999–2000 in Prince Edward Island (Canada). Recently, a marine spatial planning process was initiated explore potential mussel culture expansion in Malpeque Bay. This study focuses on the effects of a projected expansion scenario on productivity of existing leases and available suspended food resources. The aim is to provide a robust scientific assessment using available datasets and three modelling approaches ranging in complexity: (1) a connectivity analysis among culture areas; (2) a scenario analysis of organic seston dynamics based on a simplified biogeochemical model; and (3) a scenario analysis of phytoplankton dynamics based on an ecosystem model. These complementary approaches suggest (1) new leases can affect existing culture both through direct connectivity and through bay-scale effects driven by the overall increase in mussel biomass, and (2) a net reduction of phytoplankton within the bounds of its natural variation in the area.

Wind turbine rotor blade monitoring using digital image correlation: a comparison to aeroelastic simulations of a multi-megawatt wind turbine

Optical full-field measurement methods such as Digital Image Correlation (DIC) provide a new opportunity for measuring deformations and vibrations with high spatial and temporal resolution. However, application to full-scale wind turbines is not trivial. Elaborate preparation of the experiment is vital and sophisticated post processing of the DIC results essential. In the present study, a rotor blade of a 3.2 MW wind turbine is equipped with a random black-and-white dot pattern at four different radial positions. Two cameras are located in front of the wind turbine and the response of the rotor blade is monitored using DIC for different turbine operations. In addition, a Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) system is used in order to measure the wind conditions. Wind fields are created based on the LiDAR measurements and used to perform aeroelastic simulations of the wind turbine by means of advanced multibody codes. The results from the optical DIC system appear plausible when checked against common and expected results. In addition, the comparison of relative out-of-plane blade deflections shows good agreement between DIC results and aeroelastic simulations.