The theory of runs with application to drought predictions

The primary interest was in predicting the distribution runs in a sequence of Bernoulli trials. Difference equation techniques were used to express the number of runs of a given length k in n trials under three assumptions (1) no runs of length greater than k, (2) no runs of length less than k, (3) no other assumptions about the length of runs. Generating functions were utilized to obtain the distributions of the future number of runs, future number of minimum run lengths and future number of the maximum run lengths unconditional on the number of successes and failures in the Bernoulli sequence. When applying the model to Texas hydrology data, the model provided an adequate fit for the data in eight of the ten regions. Suggested health applications of this approach to run theory are provided. ^

Bayesian estimation of multilevel item response model with missing data

This study proposed a novel statistical method that modeled the multiple outcomes and missing data process jointly using item response theory. This method follows the "intent-to-treat" principle in clinical trials and accounts for the correlation between outcomes and missing data process. This method may provide a good solution to chronic mental disorder study. ^ The simulation study demonstrated that if the true model is the proposed model with moderate or strong correlation, ignoring the within correlation may lead to overestimate of the treatment effect and result in more type I error than specified level. Even if the within correlation is small, the performance of proposed model is as good as naïve response model. Thus, the proposed model is robust for different correlation settings if the data is generated by the proposed model.^

UNDERSTANDING INTERRUPTIONS IN HEALTHCARE: DEVELOPING A MODEL

Developing a Model Interruption is a known human factor that contributes to errors and catastrophic events in healthcare as well as other high-risk industries. The landmark Institute of Medicine (IOM) report, To Err is Human, brought attention to the significance of preventable errors in medicine and suggested that interruptions could be a contributing factor. Previous studies of interruptions in healthcare did not offer a conceptual model by which to study interruptions. As a result of the serious consequences of interruptions investigated in other high-risk industries, there is a need to develop a model to describe, understand, explain, and predict interruptions and their consequences in healthcare. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a model grounded in the literature and to use the model to describe and explain interruptions in healthcare. Specifically, this model would be used to describe and explain interruptions occurring in a Level One Trauma Center. A trauma center was chosen because this environment is characterized as intense, unpredictable, and interrupt-driven. The first step in developing the model began with a review of the literature which revealed that the concept interruption did not have a consistent definition in either the healthcare or non-healthcare literature. Walker and Avant’s method of concept analysis was used to clarify and define the concept. The analysis led to the identification of five defining attributes which include (1) a human experience, (2) an intrusion of a secondary, unplanned, and unexpected task, (3) discontinuity, (4) externally or internally initiated, and (5) situated within a context. However, before an interruption could commence, five conditions known as antecedents must occur. For an interruption to take place (1) an intent to interrupt is formed by the initiator, (2) a physical signal must pass a threshold test of detection by the recipient, (3) the sensory system of the recipient is stimulated to respond to the initiator, (4) an interruption task is presented to recipient, and (5) the interruption task is either accepted or rejected by v the recipient. An interruption was determined to be quantifiable by (1) the frequency of occurrence of an interruption, (2) the number of times the primary task has been suspended to perform an interrupting task, (3) the length of time the primary task has been suspended, and (4) the frequency of returning to the primary task or not returning to the primary task. As a result of the concept analysis, a definition of an interruption was derived from the literature. An interruption is defined as a break in the performance of a human activity initiated internal or external to the recipient and occurring within the context of a setting or location. This break results in the suspension of the initial task by initiating the performance of an unplanned task with the assumption that the initial task will be resumed. The definition is inclusive of all the defining attributes of an interruption. This is a standard definition that can be used by the healthcare industry. From the definition, a visual model of an interruption was developed. The model was used to describe and explain the interruptions recorded for an instrumental case study of physicians and registered nurses (RNs) working in a Level One Trauma Center. Five physicians were observed for a total of 29 hours, 31 minutes. Eight registered nurses were observed for a total of 40 hours 9 minutes. Observations were made on either the 0700–1500 or the 1500-2300 shift using the shadowing technique. Observations were recorded in the field note format. The field notes were analyzed by a hybrid method of categorizing activities and interruptions. The method was developed by using both a deductive a priori classification framework and by the inductive process utilizing line-byline coding and constant comparison as stated in Grounded Theory. The following categories were identified as relative to this study: Intended Recipient - the person to be interrupted Unintended Recipient - not the intended recipient of an interruption; i.e., receiving a phone call that was incorrectly dialed Indirect Recipient – the incidental recipient of an interruption; i.e., talking with another, thereby suspending the original activity Recipient Blocked – the intended recipient does not accept the interruption Recipient Delayed – the intended recipient postpones an interruption Self-interruption – a person, independent of another person, suspends one activity to perform another; i.e., while walking, stops abruptly and talks to another person Distraction – briefly disengaging from a task Organizational Design – the physical layout of the workspace that causes a disruption in workflow Artifacts Not Available – supplies and equipment that are not available in the workspace causing a disruption in workflow Initiator – a person who initiates an interruption Interruption by Organizational Design and Artifacts Not Available were identified as two new categories of interruption. These categories had not previously been cited in the literature. Analysis of the observations indicated that physicians were found to perform slightly fewer activities per hour when compared to RNs. This variance may be attributed to differing roles and responsibilities. Physicians were found to have more activities interrupted when compared to RNs. However, RNs experienced more interruptions per hour. Other people were determined to be the most commonly used medium through which to deliver an interruption. Additional mediums used to deliver an interruption vii included the telephone, pager, and one’s self. Both physicians and RNs were observed to resume an original interrupted activity more often than not. In most interruptions, both physicians and RNs performed only one or two interrupting activities before returning to the original interrupted activity. In conclusion the model was found to explain all interruptions observed during the study. However, the model will require an even more comprehensive study in order to establish its predictive value.

Development and Characterization of an in vitro Four-species Anaerobic Dental Biofilm Model

Dental caries is the most common chronic disease worldwide. It is characterized by the demineralization of tooth enamel caused by acid produced by cariogenic dental bacteria growing on tooth surfaces, termed bacterial biofilms. Cariogenesis is a complex biological process that is influence by multiple factors and is not attributed to a sole causative agent. Instead, caries is associated with multispecies microbial biofilm communities composed of some bacterial species that directly influence the development of a caries lesion and other species that are seemingly benign but must contribute to the community in an uncharacterized way. Clinical analysis of dental caries and its microbial populations is challenging due to many factors including low sensitivity of clinical measurement tools, variability in saliva chemistry, and variation in the microbiota. Our laboratory has developed an in vitro anaerobic biofilm model for dental carries to facilitate both clinical and basic research-based analyses of the multispecies dynamics and individual factors that contribute to cariogenicity. The rational for development of this system was to improve upon the current models that lack key elements. This model places an emphasis on physiological relevance and ease of maintenance and reproducibility. The uniqueness of the model is based on integrating four critical elements: 1) a biofilm community composed of four distinct and representative species typically associated with dental caries, 2) a semi-defined synthetic growth medium designed to mimic saliva, 3) physiologically relevant biofilm growth substrates, and 4) a novel biofilm reactor device designed to facilitate the maintenance and analysis. Specifically, human tooth sections or hydroxyapatite discs embedded into poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) discs are incubated for an initial 24 hr in a static inverted removable substrate (SIRS) biofilm reactor at 37°C under anaerobic conditions in artificial saliva (CAMM) without sucrose in the presence of 1 X 106 cells/ml of each Actinomyces odontolyticus, Fusobacterium nucleatum, Streptococcus mutans, and Veillonella dispar. During days 2 and 3 the samples are maintained continually in CAMM with various exposures to 0.2% sucrose; all of the discs are transferred into fresh medium every 24 hr. To validate that this model is an appropriate in vitro representation of a caries-associated multispecies biofilm, research aims were designed to test the following overarching hypothesis: an in vitro anaerobic biofilm composed of four species (S. mutans, V. dispar, A. odontolyticus, and F. nucleatum) will form a stable biofilm with a community profile that changes in response to environmental conditions and exhibits a cariogenic potential. For these experiments the biofilms as described above were exposed on days 2 and 3 to either CAMM lacking sucrose (no sucrose), CAMM with 0.2% sucrose (constant sucrose), or were transferred twice a day for 1 hr each time into 0.2% sucrose (intermittent sucrose). Four types of analysis were performed: 1) fluorescence microscopy of biofilms stained with Syto 9 and hexidium idodine to determine the biofilm architecture, 2) quantitative PCR (qPCR) to determine the cell number of each species per cm2, 3) vertical scanning interferometry (VSI) to determine the cariogenic potential of the biofilms, and 4) tomographic pH imaging using radiometric fluorescence microscopy after exposure to pH sensitive nanoparticles to measure the micro-environmental pH. The qualitative and quantitative results reveal the expected dynamics of the community profile when exposed to different sucrose conditions and the cariogenic potential of this in vitro four-species anaerobic biofilm model, thus confirming its usefulness for future analysis of primary and secondary dental caries.

Behavioral decision making and the levels of change: An application of the transtheoretical model to prenatal smoking in low -income women

Despite continued research and public health efforts to reduce smoking during pregnancy, prenatal cessation rates in the United States have decreased and the incidence of low birth weight has increased from 1985 to 1991. Lower socioeconomic status women who are at increased risk for poor pregnancy outcomes may be resistant to current intervention efforts during pregnancy. The purpose of this dissertation was to investigate the determinants of continued smoking and quitting among low-income pregnant women.^ Using data from cross-sectional surveys of 323 low-income pregnant smokers, the first study developed and tested measures of the pros and cons of smoking during pregnancy. The original decisional balance measure for smoking was compared with a new measure that added items thought to be more salient to the target population. Confirmatory factor analysis using structural equation modeling showed neither the original nor new measure fit the data adequately. Using behavioral science theory, content from interviews with the population, and statistical evidence, two 7-item scales representing the pros and cons were developed from a portion (n = 215) of the sample and successfully cross-validated on the remainder of the sample (n = 108). Logistic regression found only pros were significantly associated with continued smoking. In a discriminant function analysis, stage of change was significantly associated with pros and cons of smoking.^ The second study examined the structural relationships between psychosocial constructs representing some of the levels of and the pros and cons of smoking. The cross-sectional design mandates that statements made regarding prediction do not prove causation or directionality from the data or methods analysis. Structural equation modeling found the following: more stressors and family criticism were significantly more predictive of negative affect than social support; a bi-directional relationship was found between negative affect and current nicotine addiction; and negative affect, addiction, stressors, and family criticism were significant predictors of pros of smoking.^ The findings imply reversing the trend of decreasing smoking cessation during pregnancy may require supplementing current interventions for this population of pregnant smokers with programs addressing nicotine addiction, negative affect, and other psychosocial factors such as family functioning and stressors. ^

Work instability. Presentation of an empirical model about its psychological impact

Research on the impact that work instability has on workers has the limitation of assess the relations among different variables separately, without examining the possible mediation relationships that can exists between them. The aim of this article is to test a conceptual model of the mediating relations between the uneasiness due to work instability and the psychological impact, in the framework of interactive stress theory, conducting a Path Analysis. 191 workers participated on the study, with a mean age of 31 years-old (SD = 11). Results showed that the proposed model didn't fit to the data. Alternative models were explored, consistent with the original conceptual model and the empiric evidence. A new causal model is proposed, where Uneasiness due to Work Instability as an independent variable, Personal Strain and Personal Resources as intervenient variables, and Anger, Hopelessness, and Satisfaction as dependent ones. The theoretical and empirical importance of the resulting model is discussed.

Work instability. Presentation of an empirical model about its psychological impact

Research on the impact that work instability has on workers has the limitation of assess the relations among different variables separately, without examining the possible mediation relationships that can exists between them. The aim of this article is to test a conceptual model of the mediating relations between the uneasiness due to work instability and the psychological impact, in the framework of interactive stress theory, conducting a Path Analysis. 191 workers participated on the study, with a mean age of 31 years-old (SD = 11). Results showed that the proposed model didn't fit to the data. Alternative models were explored, consistent with the original conceptual model and the empiric evidence. A new causal model is proposed, where Uneasiness due to Work Instability as an independent variable, Personal Strain and Personal Resources as intervenient variables, and Anger, Hopelessness, and Satisfaction as dependent ones. The theoretical and empirical importance of the resulting model is discussed.

Work instability. Presentation of an empirical model about its psychological impact

Research on the impact that work instability has on workers has the limitation of assess the relations among different variables separately, without examining the possible mediation relationships that can exists between them. The aim of this article is to test a conceptual model of the mediating relations between the uneasiness due to work instability and the psychological impact, in the framework of interactive stress theory, conducting a Path Analysis. 191 workers participated on the study, with a mean age of 31 years-old (SD = 11). Results showed that the proposed model didn't fit to the data. Alternative models were explored, consistent with the original conceptual model and the empiric evidence. A new causal model is proposed, where Uneasiness due to Work Instability as an independent variable, Personal Strain and Personal Resources as intervenient variables, and Anger, Hopelessness, and Satisfaction as dependent ones. The theoretical and empirical importance of the resulting model is discussed.

Light-modulated responses of growth and photosynthetic performance to ocean acidification in the model diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum

Ocean acidification (OA) due to atmospheric CO2 rise is expected to influence marine primary productivity. In order to investigate the interactive effects of OA and light changes on diatoms, we grew Phaeodactylum tricornutum, under ambient (390 ppmv; LC) and elevated CO2 (1000 ppmv; HC) conditions for 80 generations, and measured its physiological performance under different light levels (60 µmol/m**2/s, LL; 200 µmol/m**2/s, ML; 460 µmol/m**2/s, HL) for another 25 generations. The specific growth rate of the HC-grown cells was higher (about 12-18%) than that of the LC-grown ones, with the highest under the ML level. With increasing light levels, the effective photochemical yield of PSII (Fv'/Fm') decreased, but was enhanced by the elevated CO2, especially under the HL level. The cells acclimated to the HC condition showed a higher recovery rate of their photochemical yield of PSII compared to the LC-grown cells. For the HC-grown cells, dissolved inorganic carbon or CO2 levels for half saturation of photosynthesis (K1/2 DIC or K1/2 CO2) increased by 11, 55 and 32%, under the LL, ML and HL levels, reflecting a light dependent down-regulation of carbon concentrating mechanisms (CCMs). The linkage between higher level of the CCMs down-regulation and higher growth rate at ML under OA supports the theory that the saved energy from CCMs down-regulation adds on to enhance the growth of the diatom.