Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type

Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).

Who gets the high quality jobs ten years after compulsory school?

Good work quality is crucial for employee well-being and health. Indicators of work quality are, among others, aspects of one’s work organization and learning opportunities. Based on the Job-Demands Control model we investigate if a) young employees are confronted with different combinations of job characteristics, b) cluster membership is predicted through socio-demographic and educational factors as well as positive self-evaluations and health, and c) cluster membership leads to different associations with job-related and general well-being. Based on TREE (Transition from Education to Employment) data we found three clusters of job characteristics, i.e. high resources – low demands, medium resources – medium demands, and low resources – high demands. Likelihood to be in a more favourable group was higher for females and young employees who reported more positive self-evaluations and higher learning efforts after compulsory school. Young employees in more favourable groups also reported higher levels of job-related and general well-being.

The trouble with quality filtering based on relative Cramér-Rao lower bounds.

Cramér Rao Lower Bounds (CRLB) have become the standard for expression of uncertainties in quantitative MR spectroscopy. If properly interpreted as a lower threshold of the error associated with model fitting, and if the limits of its estimation are respected, CRLB are certainly a very valuable tool to give an idea of minimal uncertainties in magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS), although other sources of error may be larger. Unfortunately, it has also become standard practice to use relative CRLB expressed as a percentage of the presently estimated area or concentration value as unsupervised exclusion criterion for bad quality spectra. It is shown that such quality filtering with widely used threshold levels of 20% to 50% CRLB readily causes bias in the estimated mean concentrations of cohort data, leading to wrong or missed statistical findings-and if applied rigorously-to the failure of using MRS as a clinical instrument to diagnose disease characterized by low levels of metabolites. Instead, absolute CRLB in comparison to those of the normal group or CRLB in relation to normal metabolite levels may be more useful as quality criteria. Magn Reson Med, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Graphical Model-Based Vertebra Identification from X-Ray Image(s)

Automated identification of vertebrae from X-ray image(s) is an important step for various medical image computing tasks such as 2D/3D rigid and non-rigid registration. In this chapter we present a graphical model-based solution for automated vertebra identification from X-ray image(s). Our solution does not ask for a training process using training data and has the capability to automatically determine the number of vertebrae visible in the image(s). This is achieved by combining a graphical model-based maximum a posterior probability (MAP) estimate with a mean-shift based clustering. Experiments conducted on simulated X-ray images as well as on a low-dose low quality X-ray spinal image of a scoliotic patient verified its performance.

CODE’s new solar radiation pressure model for GNSS orbit determination

The Empirical CODE Orbit Model (ECOM) of the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), which was developed in the early 1990s, is widely used in the International GNSS Service (IGS) community. For a rather long time, spurious spectral lines are known to exist in geophysical parameters, in particular in the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) and in the estimated geocenter coordinates, which could recently be attributed to the ECOM. These effects grew creepingly with the increasing influence of the GLONASS system in recent years in the CODE analysis, which is based on a rigorous combination of GPS and GLONASS since May 2003. In a first step we show that the problems associated with the ECOM are to the largest extent caused by the GLONASS, which was reaching full deployment by the end of 2011. GPS-only, GLONASS-only, and combined GPS/GLONASS solutions using the observations in the years 2009–2011 of a global network of 92 combined GPS/GLONASS receivers were analyzed for this purpose. In a second step we review direct solar radiation pressure (SRP) models for GNSS satellites. We demonstrate that only even-order short-period harmonic perturbations acting along the direction Sun-satellite occur for GPS and GLONASS satellites, and only odd-order perturbations acting along the direction perpendicular to both, the vector Sun-satellite and the spacecraft’s solar panel axis. Based on this insight we assess in the third step the performance of four candidate orbit models for the future ECOM. The geocenter coordinates, the ERP differences w. r. t. the IERS 08 C04 series of ERPs, the misclosures for the midnight epochs of the daily orbital arcs, and scale parameters of Helmert transformations for station coordinates serve as quality criteria. The old and updated ECOM are validated in addition with satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations and by comparing the orbits to those of the IGS and other analysis centers. Based on all tests, we present a new extended ECOM which substantially reduces the spurious signals in the geocenter coordinate z (by about a factor of 2–6), reduces the orbit misclosures at the day boundaries by about 10 %, slightly improves the consistency of the estimated ERPs with those of the IERS 08 C04 Earth rotation series, and substantially reduces the systematics in the SLR validation of the GNSS orbits.

In-situ, satellite measurement and model evidence on the dominant regional contribution to fine particulate matter levels in the Paris Megacity

A detailed characterization of air quality in the megacity of Paris (France) during two 1-month intensive campaigns and from additional 1-year observations revealed that about 70% of the urban background fine particulate matter (PM) is transported on average into the megacity from upwind regions. This dominant influence of regional sources was confirmed by in situ measurements during short intensive and longer-term campaigns, aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from ENVISAT, and modeling results from PMCAMx and CHIMERE chemistry transport models. While advection of sulfate is well documented for other megacities, there was surprisingly high contribution from long-range transport for both nitrate and organic aerosol. The origin of organic PM was investigated by comprehensive analysis of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), radiocarbon and tracer measurements during two intensive campaigns. Primary fossil fuel combustion emissions constituted less than 20%in winter and 40%in summer of carbonaceous fine PM, unexpectedly small for a megacity. Cooking activities and, during winter, residential wood burning are the major primary organic PM sources. This analysis suggests that the major part of secondary organic aerosol is of modern origin, i.e., from biogenic precursors and from wood burning. Black carbon concentrations are on the lower end of values encountered in megacities worldwide, but still represent an issue for air quality. These comparatively low air pollution levels are due to a combination of low emissions per inhabitant, flat terrain, and a meteorology that is in general not conducive to local pollution build-up. This revised picture of a megacity only being partially responsible for its own average and peak PM levels has important implications for air pollution regulation policies.

Impact of platelet rich plasma and adipose stem cells on lymphangiogenesis in a murine tail lymphedema model.

BACKGROUND Lymphedema is an underdiagnosed pathology which in industrialized countries mainly affects cancer patients that underwent lymph node dissection and/or radiation. Currently no effective therapy is available so that patients' life quality is compromised by swellings of the concerned body region. This unfortunate condition is associated with body imbalance and subsequent osteochondral deformations and impaired function as well as with an increased risk of potentially life threatening soft tissue infections. METHODS The effects of PRP and ASC on angiogenesis (anti-CD31 staining), microcirculation (Laser Doppler Imaging), lymphangiogenesis (anti-LYVE1 staining), microvascular architecture (corrosion casting) and wound healing (digital planimetry) are studied in a murine tail lymphedema model. RESULTS Wounds treated by PRP and ASC healed faster and showed a significantly increased epithelialization mainly from the proximal wound margin. The application of PRP induced a significantly increased lymphangiogenesis while the application of ASC did not induce any significant change in this regard. CONCLUSIONS PRP and ASC affect lymphangiogenesis and lymphedema development and might represent a promising approach to improve regeneration of lymphatic vessels, restore disrupted lymphatic circulation and treat or prevent lymphedema alone or in combination with currently available lymphedema therapies.

Does the use of mobile devices (tablets and smartphones) affect survey quality and choice behaviour in web surveys?

Web surveys are becoming increasingly popular in survey research including stated preference surveys. Compared with face-to-face, telephone and mail surveys, web surveys may contain a different and new source of measurement error and bias: the type of device that respondents use to answer the survey questions. This is the first study that tests whether the use of mobile devices, tablets or smartphones, affects survey characteristics and stated preferences in a web-based choice experiment. The web survey on expanding renewable energy production in Germany was carried out with 3182 respondents, of which 12% used a mobile device. Propensity score matching is used to account for selection bias in the use of mobile devices for survey completion. We find that mobile device users spent more time than desktop/laptop users to answer the survey. Yet, desktop/laptop users and mobile device users do not differ in acquiescence tendency as an indicator of extreme response patterns. For mobile device users only, we find a negative correlation between screen size and interview length and a positive correlation between screen size and acquiescence tendency. In the choice experiment data, we do not find significant differences in the tendency to choose the status quo option and scale between both subsamples. However, some of the estimates of implicit prices differ, albeit not in a unidirectional fashion. Model results for mobile device users indicate a U-shaped relationship between error variance and screen size. Together, the results suggest that using mobile devices is not detrimental to survey quality.

Trade Costs, Quality, and The Skill Premium

We develop a monopolistic competition model with nonhomothetic factor input bundles where increasing quality requires increasing use of skilled workers. As a result more skill abundant countries export higher quality, higher priced goods. Using a multicountry dataset we test and confirm the findings in Schott (2004) of a positive effect of skill abundance on unit values identified with US data. We extend the core model with per unit trade costs leading to the Washington-apples effect that goods shipped over larger distance are of higher quality. The combination of high-quality goods being relatively skill intensive with the Washington-apples effect implies that countries at a larger distance from their trading partners display a higher skill premium. Simulating our model we find that a doubling of distance of a country relative to all its trading partners raises the skill premium in a country by about 2.3 percent.

A Simple Model of Credit Rationing with Information Externalities

Credit-rationing model similar to Stiglitz and Weiss [1981] is combined with the information externality model of Lang and Nakamura [1993] to examine the properties of mortgage markets characterized by both adverse selection and information externalities. In a credit-rationing model, additional information increases lenders ability to distinguish risks, which leads to increased supply of credit. According to Lang and Nakamura, larger supply of credit leads to additional market activities and therefore, greater information. The combination of these two propositions leads to a general equilibrium model. This paper describes properties of this general equilibrium model. The paper provides another sufficient condition in which credit rationing falls with information. In that, external information improves the accuracy of equity-risk assessments of properties, which reduces credit rationing. Contrary to intuition, this increased accuracy raises the mortgage interest rate. This allows clarifying the trade offs associated with reduced credit rationing and the quality of applicant pool.

Impact of a modified dietary plan on the health related quality of life of minority participants in the Women's Healthy Eating and Living (WHEL) Study

Advances in medical technology, in genetics, and in clinical research have led to early detection of cancer, precise diagnosis, and effective treatment modalities. Decline in cancer incidence and mortality due to cancer has led to increased number of long-term survivors. However, the ethnic minority population has not experienced this decline and still continues to carry a disparate proportion of the cancer burden. Majority of the clinical research including survivorship studies have recruited and continue to recruit a convenient sample of middle- to upper-class Caucasian survivors. Thus, minorities are underrepresented in cancer research in terms of both clinical studies and in health related quality of life (HRQOL) studies. ^ Life style and diet have been associated with increased risk of breast cancer. High vegetable low fat diet has been shown to reduce recurrence of breast cancer and early death. The Women's Healthy Eating and Living Study is an ongoing multi-site randomized controlled trial that is evaluating the high-vegetable low fat diet in reducing the recurrence of breast cancer and early death. The purpose of this dissertation was to (1) compare the impact of the modified diet on the HRQOL during the first 12-month period on specific Minorities and matched Caucasians; (2) identify predictors that significantly impact the HRQOL of the study participants; and (3) using the structural equation modeling assess the impact of nutrition on the HRQOL of the intervention group participants. Findings suggest that there are no significant differences in change in HRQOL between Minorities and Caucasians; between Minorities in the intervention group and those in the comparison group; and between women in the intervention group and those in the comparison group. Minority indicator variable and Intervention/Comparison group indicator variable were not found to be good predictors of HRQOL. Although the structural equation models suggested viable representation of the relationship between the antecedent variables, the mediating variables and the two outcome variables, the impact of nutrition was not statistically significant to be included in the model. This dissertation, by analyzing the HRQOL of minorities in the WHEL Study, attempted to add to the knowledge base specific to minority cancer survivors. ^

Airliner cabin air quality exposure assessment

The airliner cabin environment and its effects on occupant health have not been fully characterized. This dissertation is: (1) A review of airliner environmental control systems (ECSs) that modulate the ventilation, temperature, relative humidity (RH), and barometric pressure (PB) of the cabin environment---variables related to occupant comfort and health. (2) A review and assessment of the methods and findings of key cabin air quality (CAQ) investigations. Several significant deficiencies impede the drawing of inferences about CAQ, e.g., lack of detail about investigative methods, differences in methods between investigations, limited assessment of CAQ variables, small sample sizes, and technological deficiencies of data collection. (3) A comprehensive evaluation of the methods used in the subsequent NIOSH-FAA Airliner CAQ Exposure Assessment Feasibility Study (STUDY) in which this author participated. A number of problems were identified which limit the usefulness of the data. (4) An analysis of the reliable 10-flight STUDY data. Univariate and multivariate methods applied to CO2 (a surrogate for air contaminants), temperature, RH, and PB, in association with percent passenger load, ventilation system, flight duration, airliner body type, and measurement location within the cabin, revealed neither the measured values nor their variability exceeded established health-based exposure limits. Regression analyses suggest CO2, temperature, and RH were affected by percent passenger load. In-flight measurements of CO2 and RH were relatively independent of ventilation system type or flight duration. Cabin temperature was associated with percent passenger load, ventilation system type, and flight duration. (5) A synthesis of the implications of the airliner ECS and cabin O2 environment on occupant health. A model was developed to predict consequences of the airliner cabin pressure altitude 8,000 ft limit and resulting model-estimated PO2 on cardiopulmonary status. Based on the PB, altitude, and environmental data derived from the 10 STUDY flights, the predicted PaO2 of adults with COPD, or elderly adults with or without COPD, breathing ambient cabin air could be < 55 mm Hg (SaO2 < 88%). Reduction in cabin PB found in the STUDY flights could aggravate various medical conditions and require the use of in-flight supplemental O2. ^

Interrelationships between the structural and functional aspects of social relationships, comorbidity and health related quality of life in breast cancer survivors

It is widely acknowledged in theoretical and empirical literature that social relationships, comprising of structural measures (social networks) and functional measures (perceived social support) have an undeniable effect on health outcomes. However, the actual mechanism of this effect has yet to be clearly understood or explicated. In addition, comorbidity is found to adversely affect social relationships and health related quality of life (a valued outcome measure in cancer patients and survivors). ^ This cross sectional study uses selected baseline data (N=3088) from the Women's Healthy Eating and Living (WHEL) study. Lisrel 8.72 was used for the latent variable structural equation modeling. Due to the ordinal nature of the data, Weighted Least Squares (WLS) method of estimation using Asymptotic Distribution Free covariance matrices was chosen for this analysis. The primary exogenous predictor variables are Social Networks and Comorbidity; Perceived Social Support is the endogenous predictor variable. Three dimensions of HRQoL, physical, mental and satisfaction with current quality of life were the outcome variables. ^ This study hypothesizes and tests the mechanism and pathways between comorbidity, social relationships and HRQoL using latent variable structural equation modeling. After testing the measurement models of social networks and perceived social support, a structural model hypothesizing associations between the latent exogenous and endogenous variables was tested. The results of the study after listwise deletion (N=2131) mostly confirmed the hypothesized relationships (TLI, CFI >0.95, RMSEA = 0.05, p=0.15). Comorbidity was adversely associated with all three HRQoL outcomes. Strong ties were negatively associated with perceived social support; social network had a strong positive association with perceived social support, which served as a mediator between social networks and HRQoL. Mental health quality of life was the most adversely affected by the predictor variables. ^ This study is a preliminary look at the integration of structural and functional measures of social relationships, comorbidity and three HRQoL indicators using LVSEM. Developing stronger social networks and forming supportive relationships is beneficial for health outcomes such as HRQoL of cancer survivors. Thus, the medical community treating cancer survivors as well as the survivor's social networks need to be informed and cognizant of these possible relationships. ^

Revising the National Ambient Air Quality Standards: The integration of science and policy

Under the Clean Air Act, Congress granted discretionary decision making authority to the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This discretionary authority involves setting standards to protect the public's health with an "adequate margin of safety" based on current scientific knowledge. The Administrator of the EPA is usually not a scientist, and for the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for particulate matter (PM), the Administrator faced the task of revising a standard when several scientific factors were ambiguous. These factors included: (1) no identifiable threshold below which health effects are not manifested, (2) no biological basis to explain the reported associations between particulate matter and adverse health effects, and (3) no consensus among the members of the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) as to what an appropriate PM indicator, averaging period, or value would be for the revised standard. ^ This project recommends and demonstrates a tool, integrated assessment (IA), to aid the Administrator in making a public health policy decision in the face of ambiguous scientific factors. IA is an interdisciplinary approach to decision making that has been used to deal with complex issues involving many uncertainties, particularly climate change analyses. Two IA approaches are presented; a rough set analysis by which the expertise of CASAC members can be better utilized, and a flag model for incorporating the views of stakeholders into the standard setting process. ^ The rough set analysis can describe minimal and maximal conditions about the current science pertaining to PM and health effects. Similarly, a flag model can evaluate agreement or lack of agreement by various stakeholder groups to the proposed standard in the PM review process. ^ The use of these IA tools will enable the Administrator to (1) complete the NAAQS review in a manner that is in closer compliance with the Clean Air Act, (2) expand the input from CASAC, (3) take into consideration the views of the stakeholders, and (4) retain discretionary decision making authority. ^

Federally regulated institutional review boards: The aspects of a "model" IRB---Is the current system in need of a tune up or complete overhaul?

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs) are the primary gatekeepers for the protection of ethical standards of federally regulated research on human subjects in this country. This paper focuses on what general, broad measures that may be instituted or enhanced to exemplify a "model IRB". This is done by examining the current regulatory standards of federally regulated IRBs, not private or commercial boards, and how many of those standards have been found either inadequate or not generally understood or followed. The analysis includes suggestions on how to bring about changes in order to make the IRB process more efficient, less subject to litigation, and create standardized educational protocols for members. The paper also considers how to include better oversight for multi-center research, increased centralization of IRBs, utilization of Data Safety Monitoring Boards when necessary, payment for research protocol review, voluntary accreditation, and the institution of evaluation/quality assurance programs. ^ This is a policy study utilizing secondary analysis of publicly available data. Therefore, the research for this paper focuses on scholarly medical/legal journals, web information from the Department of Health and Human Services, Federal Drug Administration, and the Office of the Inspector General, Accreditation Programs, law review articles, and current regulations applicable to the relevant portions of the paper. ^ Two issues are found to be consistently cited by the literature as major concerns. One is a need for basic, standardized educational requirements across all IRBs and its members, and secondly, much stricter and more informed management of continuing research. There is no federally regulated formal education system currently in place for IRB members, except for certain NIH-based trials. Also, IRBs are not keeping up with research once a study has begun, and although regulated to do so, it does not appear to be a great priority. This is the area most in danger of increased litigation. Other issues such as voluntary accreditation and outcomes evaluation are slowing gaining steam as the processes are becoming more available and more sought after, such as JCAHO accrediting of hospitals. ^ Adopting the principles discussed in this paper should promote better use of a local IRBs time, money, and expertise for protecting the vulnerable population in their care. Without further improvements to the system, there is concern that private and commercial IRBs will attempt to create a monopoly on much of the clinical research in the future as they are not as heavily regulated and can therefore offer companies quicker and more convenient reviews. IRBs need to consider the advantages of charging for their unique and important services as a cost of doing business. More importantly, there must be a minimum standard of education for all IRB members in the area of the ethical standards of human research and a greater emphasis placed on the follow-up of ongoing research as this is the most critical time for study participants and may soon lead to the largest area for litigation. Additionally, there should be a centralized IRB for multi-site trials or a study website with important information affecting the trial in real time. There needs to be development of standards and metrics to assess the performance of the IRBs for quality assurance and outcome evaluations. The boards should not be content to run the business of human subjects' research without determining how well that function is actually being carried out. It is important that federally regulated IRBs provide excellence in human research and promote those values most important to the public at large.^