Price sensitivity to tourism activities: looking for determinant factors

The literature contains evidence that there is a marked heterogeneity in price responses to tourism products, leading to a great variety of tourist sensitivities to price. Thus the role price plays is complex, and a particularly challenging aspect of this complexity is that its effect is not unambiguous, thereby negating the idea that the demand for tourism products and tourist activities can always be regarded as demand for ordinary goods. This article identifies and explains, as a novelty for the tourism industry, price sensitivities to tourism activities individual by individual. The operative formalization uses a mixed logit model to estimate the individual sensitivities to price, and then a regression analysis is applied to detect their determinants. The empirical application finds that motivations, influenced by age, and length of stay with a non-linear effect, are explanatory factors of tourists’ price sensitivity to activities.

Calmness modulus of linear semi-infinite programs

Our main goal is to compute or estimate the calmness modulus of the argmin mapping of linear semi-infinite optimization problems under canonical perturbations, i.e., perturbations of the objective function together with continuous perturbations of the right-hand side of the constraint system (with respect to an index ranging in a compact Hausdorff space). Specifically, we provide a lower bound on the calmness modulus for semi-infinite programs with unique optimal solution which turns out to be the exact modulus when the problem is finitely constrained. The relationship between the calmness of the argmin mapping and the same property for the (sub)level set mapping (with respect to the objective function), for semi-infinite programs and without requiring the uniqueness of the nominal solution, is explored, too, providing an upper bound on the calmness modulus of the argmin mapping. When confined to finitely constrained problems, we also provide a computable upper bound as it only relies on the nominal data and parameters, not involving elements in a neighborhood. Illustrative examples are provided.

Calmness of the Feasible Set Mapping for Linear Inequality Systems

In this paper we deal with parameterized linear inequality systems in the n-dimensional Euclidean space, whose coefficients depend continuosly on an index ranging in a compact Hausdorff space. The paper is developed in two different parametric settings: the one of only right-hand-side perturbations of the linear system, and that in which both sides of the system can be perturbed. Appealing to the backgrounds on the calmness property, and exploiting the specifics of the current linear structure, we derive different characterizations of the calmness of the feasible set mapping, and provide an operative expresion for the calmness modulus when confined to finite systems. In the paper, the role played by the Abadie constraint qualification in relation to calmness is clarified, and illustrated by different examples. We point out that this approach has the virtue of tackling the calmness property exclusively in terms of the system’s data.

Robust solutions to multi-objective linear programs with uncertain data

In this paper we examine multi-objective linear programming problems in the face of data uncertainty both in the objective function and the constraints. First, we derive a formula for the radius of robust feasibility guaranteeing constraint feasibility for all possible scenarios within a specified uncertainty set under affine data parametrization. We then present numerically tractable optimality conditions for minmax robust weakly efficient solutions, i.e., the weakly efficient solutions of the robust counterpart. We also consider highly robust weakly efficient solutions, i.e., robust feasible solutions which are weakly efficient for any possible instance of the objective matrix within a specified uncertainty set, providing lower bounds for the radius of highly robust efficiency guaranteeing the existence of this type of solutions under affine and rank-1 objective data uncertainty. Finally, we provide numerically tractable optimality conditions for highly robust weakly efficient solutions.

Game theory and programming; National Science Foundation summer mathematics institute notes.

Bibliography: leaves [87]-[88]

Searching oligo sets of human chromosome 12 using evolutionary strategies

DNA Microarray is a powerful tool to measure the level of a mixed population of nucleic acids at one time, which has great impact in many aspects of life sciences research. In order to distinguish nucleic acids with very similar composition by hybridization, it is necessary to design microarray probes with high specificities and sensitivities. Highly specific probes correspond to probes having unique DNA sequences; whereas highly sensitive probes correspond to those with melting temperature within a desired range and having no secondary structure. The selection of these probes from a set of functional DNA sequences (exons) constitutes a computationally expensive discrete non-linear search problem. We delegate the search task to a simple yet effective Evolution Strategy algorithm. The computational efficiency is also greatly improved by making use of an available bioinformatics tool.

Adaptive phase measurements in linear optical quantum computation

Photon counting induces an effective non-linear optical phase shift in certain states derived by linear optics from single photons. Although this non-linearity is non-deterministic, it is sufficient in principle to allow scalable linear optics quantum computation (LOQC). The most obvious way to encode a qubit optically is as a superposition of the vacuum and a single photon in one mode-so-called 'single-rail' logic. Until now this approach was thought to be prohibitively expensive (in resources) compared to 'dual-rail' logic where a qubit is stored by a photon across two modes. Here we attack this problem with real-time feedback control, which can realize a quantum-limited phase measurement on a single mode, as has been recently demonstrated experimentally. We show that with this added measurement resource, the resource requirements for single-rail LOQC are not substantially different from those of dual-rail LOQC. In particular, with adaptive phase measurements an arbitrary qubit state a alpha/0 > + beta/1 > can be prepared deterministically.

Analytical solutions of linear finite- and small-strain one-dimensional consolidation

Analytical solutions are presented for linear finite-strain one-dimensional consolidation of initially unconsolidated soil layers with surcharge loading for both one- and two-way drainage. These solutions complement earlier solutions for initially unconsolidated soil layers without surcharge and initially normally consolidated soil layers with surcharge. Small-strain solutions for the consolidation of initially unconsolidated soil layers with surcharge loading are also presented, and the relationship between the earlier solutions for initially unconsolidated soil without surcharge and the corresponding small-strain solutions, which was not addressed in the earlier work, is clarified. The new solutions for initially unconsolidated soil with surcharge loading can be applied to the analysis of low stress consolidation tests and to the partial validation of numerical solutions of non-linear finite-strain consolidation. They also clarify a formerly perplexing aspect of finite-strain solution charts first noted in numerical solutions. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

A D-optimal designed population pharmacokinetic study of itraconazole capsules and solution in adults with cystic fibrosis

Background: Oral itraconazole (ITRA) is used for the treatment of allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) because of its antifungal activity against Aspergillus species. ITRA has an active hydroxy-metabolite (OH-ITRA) which has similar antifungal activity. ITRA is a highly lipophilic drug which is available in two different oral formulations, a capsule and an oral solution. It is reported that the oral solution has a 60% higher relative bioavailability. The influence of altered gastric physiology associated with CF on the pharmacokinetics (PK) of ITRA and its metabolite has not been previously evaluated. Objectives: 1) To estimate the population (pop) PK parameters for ITRA and its active metabolite OH-ITRA including relative bioavailability of the parent after administration of the parent by both capsule and solution and 2) to assess the performance of the optimal design. Methods: The study was a cross-over design in which 30 patients received the capsule on the first occasion and 3 days later the solution formulation. The design was constrained to have a maximum of 4 blood samples per occasion for estimation of the popPK of both ITRA and OH-ITRA. The sampling times for the population model were optimized previously using POPT v.2.0.[1] POPT is a series of applications that run under MATLAB and provide an evaluation of the information matrix for a nonlinear mixed effects model given a particular design. In addition it can be used to optimize the design based on evaluation of the determinant of the information matrix. The model details for the design were based on prior information obtained from the literature, which suggested that ITRA may have either linear or non-linear elimination. The optimal sampling times were evaluated to provide information for both competing models for the parent and metabolite and for both capsule and solution simultaneously. Blood samples were assayed by validated HPLC.[2] PopPK modelling was performed using FOCE with interaction under NONMEM, version 5 (level 1.1; GloboMax LLC, Hanover, MD, USA). The PK of ITRA and OH‑ITRA was modelled simultaneously using ADVAN 5. Subsequently three methods were assessed for modelling concentrations less than the LOD (limit of detection). These methods (corresponding to methods 5, 6 & 4 from Beal[3], respectively) were (a) where all values less than LOD were assigned to half of LOD, (b) where the closest missing value that is less than LOD was assigned to half the LOD and all previous (if during absorption) or subsequent (if during elimination) missing samples were deleted, and (c) where the contribution of the expectation of each missing concentration to the likelihood is estimated. The LOD was 0.04 mg/L. The final model evaluation was performed via bootstrap with re-sampling and a visual predictive check. The optimal design and the sampling windows of the study were evaluated for execution errors and for agreement between the observed and predicted standard errors. Dosing regimens were simulated for the capsules and the oral solution to assess their ability to achieve ITRA target trough concentration (Cmin,ss of 0.5-2 mg/L) or a combined Cmin,ss for ITRA and OH-ITRA above 1.5mg/L. Results and Discussion: A total of 241 blood samples were collected and analysed, 94% of them were taken within the defined optimal sampling windows, of which 31% where taken within 5 min of the exact optimal times. Forty six per cent of the ITRA values and 28% of the OH-ITRA values were below LOD. The entire profile after administration of the capsule for five patients was below LOD and therefore the data from this occasion was omitted from estimation. A 2-compartment model with 1st order absorption and elimination best described ITRA PK, with 1st order metabolism of the parent to OH-ITRA. For ITRA the clearance (ClItra/F) was 31.5 L/h; apparent volumes of central and peripheral compartments were 56.7 L and 2090 L, respectively. Absorption rate constants for capsule (kacap) and solution (kasol) were 0.0315 h-1 and 0.125 h-1, respectively. Comparative bioavailability of the capsule was 0.82. There was no evidence of nonlinearity in the popPK of ITRA. No screened covariate significantly improved the fit to the data. The results of the parameter estimates from the final model were comparable between the different methods for accounting for missing data, (M4,5,6)[3] and provided similar parameter estimates. The prospective application of an optimal design was found to be successful. Due to the sampling windows, most of the samples could be collected within the daily hospital routine, but still at times that were near optimal for estimating the popPK parameters. The final model was one of the potential competing models considered in the original design. The asymptotic standard errors provided by NONMEM for the final model and empirical values from bootstrap were similar in magnitude to those predicted from the Fisher Information matrix associated with the D-optimal design. Simulations from the final model showed that the current dosing regimen of 200 mg twice daily (bd) would provide a target Cmin,ss (0.5-2 mg/L) for only 35% of patients when administered as the solution and 31% when administered as capsules. The optimal dosing schedule was 500mg bd for both formulations. The target success for this dosing regimen was 87% for the solution with an NNT=4 compared to capsules. This means, for every 4 patients treated with the solution one additional patient will achieve a target success compared to capsule but at an additional cost of AUD $220 per day. The therapeutic target however is still doubtful and potential risks of these dosing schedules need to be assessed on an individual basis. Conclusion: A model was developed which described the popPK of ITRA and its main active metabolite OH-ITRA in adult CF after administration of both capsule and solution. The relative bioavailability of ITRA from the capsule was 82% that of the solution, but considerably more variable. To incorporate missing data, using the simple Beal method 5 (using half LOD for all samples below LOD) provided comparable results to the more complex but theoretically better Beal method 4 (integration method). The optimal sparse design performed well for estimation of model parameters and provided a good fit to the data.

Bifurcations in the non-dissipative dynamics of ultra cold atoms

We present the first experimental observation of several bifurcations in a controllable non-linear Hamiltonian system. Dynamics of cold atoms are used to test predictions of non-linear, non-dissipative Hamiltonian dynamics.

Optimization of physical distribution problem in logistics management

Physical distribution plays an imporant role in contemporary logistics management. Both satisfaction level of of customer and competitiveness of company can be enhanced if the distribution problem is solved optimally. The multi-depot vehicle routing problem (MDVRP) belongs to a practical logistics distribution problem, which consists of three critical issues: customer assignment, customer routing, and vehicle sequencing. According to the literatures, the solution approaches for the MDVRP are not satisfactory because some unrealistic assumptions were made on the first sub-problem of the MDVRP, ot the customer assignment problem. To refine the approaches, the focus of this paper is confined to this problem only. This paper formulates the customer assignment problem as a minimax-type integer linear programming model with the objective of minimizing the cycle time of the depots where setup times are explicitly considered. Since the model is proven to be MP-complete, a genetic algorithm is developed for solving the problem. The efficiency and effectiveness of the genetic algorithm are illustrated by a numerical example.

A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks:an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia

Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

A performance assessment method for hospitals:the case of municipal hospitals in Angola

Over 60% of the recurrent budget of the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Angola is spent on the operations of the fixed health care facilities (health centres plus hospitals). However, to date, no study has been attempted to investigate how efficiently those resources are used to produce health services. Therefore the objectives of this study were to assess the technical efficiency of public municipal hospitals in Angola; assess changes in productivity over time with a view to analyzing changes in efficiency and technology; and demonstrate how the results can be used in the pursuit of the public health objective of promoting efficiency in the use of health resources. The analysis was based on a 3-year panel data from all the 28 public municipal hospitals in Angola. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a non-parametric linear programming approach, was employed to assess the technical and scale efficiency and productivity change over time using Malmquist index.The results show that on average, productivity of municipal hospitals in Angola increased by 4.5% over the period 2000-2002; that growth was due to improvements in efficiency rather than innovation. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Technical efficiency:efficiency, change, technical progress and productivity growth in the national health systems of continental African countries

In May 2006, the Ministers of Health of all the countries on the African continent, at a special session of the African Union, undertook to institutionalise efficiency monitoring within their respective national health information management systems. The specific objectives of this study were: (i) to assess the technical efficiency of National Health Systems (NHSs) of African countries for measuring male and female life expectancies, and (ii) to assess changes in health productivity over time with a view to analysing changes in efficiency and changes in technology. The analysis was based on a five-year panel data (1999-2003) from all the 53 countries of continental Africa. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) - a non-parametric linear programming approach - was employed to assess the technical efficiency. Malmquist Total Factor Productivity (MTFP) was used to analyse efficiency and productivity change over time among the 53 countries' national health systems. The data consisted of two outputs (male and female life expectancies) and two inputs (per capital total health expenditure and adult literacy). The DEA revealed that 49 (92.5%) countries' NHSs were run inefficiently in 1999 and 2000; 50 (94.3%), 48 (90.6%) and 47 (88.7%) operated inefficiently in 2001, 2002, and 2003 respectively. All the 53 countries' national health systems registered improvements in total factor productivity attributable mainly to technical progress. Fifty-two countries did not experience any change in scale efficiency, while thirty (56.6%) countries' national health systems had a Pure Efficiency Change (PEFFCH) index of less than one, signifying that those countries' NHSs pure efficiency contributed negatively to productivity change. All the 53 countries' national health systems registered improvements in total factor productivity, attributable mainly to technical progress. Over half of the countries' national health systems had a pure efficiency index of less than one, signifying that those countries' NHSs pure efficiency contributed negatively to productivity change. African countries may need to critically evaluate the utility of institutionalising Malmquist TFP type of analyses to monitor changes in health systems economic efficiency and productivity over time. African national health systems, per capita total health expenditure, technical efficiency, scale efficiency, Malmquist indices of productivity change, DEA

A note on DEA models in technology selection:an improvement of Karsak and Ahiska's approach

This paper introduces a compact form for the maximum value of the non-Archimedean in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models applied for the technology selection, without the need to solve a linear programming (LP). Using this method the computational performance the common weight multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) DEA model proposed by Karsak and Ahiska (International Journal of Production Research, 2005, 43(8), 1537-1554) is improved. This improvement is significant when computational issues and complexity analysis are a concern.