Epidemiologic aspects of the malaria transmission cycle in an area of very low incidence in Brazil

Abstract Background Extra-Amazonian autochthonous Plasmodium vivax infections have been reported in mountainous regions surrounded by the Atlantic Forest in Espírito Santo state, Brazil. Methods Sixty-five patients and 1,777 residents were surveyed between April 2001 and March 2004. Laboratory methods included thin and thick smears, multiplex-PCR, immunofluorescent assay (IFA) against P. vivax and Plasmodium malariae crude blood-stage antigens and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for antibodies against the P. vivax-complex (P. vivax and variants) and P. malariae/Plasmodium brasilianum circumsporozoite-protein (CSP) antigens. Results Average patient age was 35.1 years. Most (78.5%) were males; 64.6% lived in rural areas; 35.4% were farmers; and 12.3% students. There was no relevant history of travel. Ninety-five per cent of the patients were experiencing their first episode of malaria. Laboratory data from 51 patients were consistent with P. vivax infection, which was determined by thin smear. Of these samples, 48 were assayed by multiplex-PCR. Forty-five were positive for P. vivax, confirming the parasitological results, while P. malariae was detected in one sample and two gave negative results. Fifty percent of the 50 patients tested had IgG antibodies against the P. vivax-complex or P. malariae CSP as determined by ELISA. The percentages of residents with IgM and IgG antibodies detected by IFA for P. malariae, P. vivax and Plasmodium falciparum who did not complain of malaria symptoms at the time blood was collected were 30.1% and 56.5%, 6.2% and 37.7%, and 13.5% and 13%, respectively. The same sera that reacted to P. vivax also reacted to P. malariae. The following numbers of samples were positive in multiplex-PCR: 23 for P. vivax; 15 for P. malariae; 9 for P. falciparum and only one for P. falciparum and P. malariae. All thin and thick smears were negative. ELISA against CSP antigens was positive in 25.4%, 6.3%, 10.7% and 15.1% of the samples tested for "classical" P. vivax (VK210), VK247, P. vivax-like and P. malariae, respectively. Anopheline captures in the transmission area revealed only zoophilic and exophilic species. Conclusion The low incidence of malaria cases, the finding of asymptomatic inhabitants and the geographic separation of patients allied to serological and molecular results raise the possibility of the existence of a simian reservoir in these areas.

Ecological aspects of the sandfly fauna (Diptera, Psychodidae) in an American cutaneous leishmaniasis endemic area under the influence of hydroelectric plants in Paranapanema river, State of Paraná, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: An epidemiological study was undertaken to identify determinant factors in the occurrence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in areas under the influence of hydroelectric plants in Paranapanema river, State of Paraná, Brazil. The ecological aspects of the phlebotomine fauna were investigated. METHODS: Sandflies were sampled with automatic light traps from February 2004 to June 2006 at 25 sites in the urban and rural areas of Itambaracá, and in Porto Almeida and São Joaquim do Pontal. RESULTS: A total of 3,187 sandflies of 15 species were captured. Nyssomyia neivai predominated (34.4%), followed by Pintomyia pessoai (32.6%), Migonemyia migonei (11.6%), Nyssomyia whitmani (8.8%), and Pintomyia fischeri (2.7%), all implicated in the transmission of Leishmania. Males predominated for Ny. neivai, and females for the other vector species, with significant statistical differences (p < 0.001). Nyssomyia neivai, Pi. pessoai, Ny. whitmani, Brumptomyia brumpti, Mg. migonei, and Pi. fischeri presented the highest values for the Standardized Species Abundance Index (SSAI). The highest frequencies and diversities were found in the preserved forest in Porto Almeida, followed by forests with degradation in São Joaquim do Pontal and Vila Rural. CONCLUSIONS: Sandflies were captured in all localities, with the five vectors predominating. Ny. neivai had its highest frequencies in nearby peridomestic environments and Pi. pessoai in areas of preserved forests. The highest SSAI values of Ny. neivai and Pi. pessoai reflect their wider dispersion and higher frequencies compared with other species, which seems to indicate that these two species may be transmitting leishmaniasis in the area.

A retrospective serologic survey of hantavirus infections in the county of Cássia dos Coqueiros, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, hantavirus infections producing severe diseases have obtained an increased attention from public health authorities from the countries of Eurasia to the Americas. Brazil has reported 1,300 cases of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) from 1993 to 2010, with about 80 of them occurring in the northeast of the State of São Paulo, with 48% fatality rate. Araraquara virus was the causative agent of HCPS in the region. Considering that hantaviruses causing human disease in the Americas were unknown until 1993, we have looked for hantavirus infections in the population of Cássia dos Coqueiros county, northeast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, before this time. This county has about 2,800 inhabitants and an economy based on agriculture, including cultivation of Brachiaria decumbens grass. The grass seeds are an important rodent attraction, facilitating transmission of hantavirus to man. Four HCPS cases were reported so far in the county. METHODS: In this study, 1,876 sera collected from 1987 to 1990 were tested for IgG to hantavirus by IgG-ELISA, using the N recombinant protein of Araraquara virus as antigen. RESULTS: Positive results were observed in 89 (4.7%) samples, which were all collected in 1987. The positivity among urban inhabitants was 5.3%, compared with 4.3% among those living in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that hantavirus infections occurred in Cássia dos Coqueiros, completely unrecognized, even before hantaviruses were described in the Americas.

Survey of Trachoma within School Students in the State of Roraima, Brazil

Purpose: Trachoma, a blinding conjunctivitis, is the result of repeated infection with Chlamydia trachomatis. There are no recent data for the state of Roraima, Brazil, where it was thought that trachoma no longer existed. These data are derived from school children sampled in this state, with additional data collected from the contacts of children with trachoma. Design: A population-based cross-sectional study with random sampling of students in grades 1 through 4 of all public schools within municipalities where the human development index was less than the national average in 2003. The sample was stratified according to population size. Participants: A sample size of 7200 was determined and a total of 6986 (93%) students were examined, along with an additional 2152 contacts. Methods: All students were examined for trachoma according to World Health Organization criteria. Demographic data and contact information also was collected. The family and school contacts of students with trachoma then were located and examined. Main Outcome Measures: Prevalence and grade of trachoma, age, gender, race, and municipality location. Results: The overall prevalence of trachoma was 4.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.7%–5.3%), but there were municipalities within the state where the prevalence of inflammatory trachoma was more than 10%. The prevalence was greater in rural areas (4.9%; 95% CI, 3.7%–6.0%) compared with urban areas (3.9%; 95% CI, 2.9%–4.9%). Living in indigenous communities was associated with trachoma (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.9 –2.6). An additional 2152 contacts were examined, and the overall trachoma prevalence was 9.3% (95% CI, 8.1–10.5). Conclusions: Trachoma continues to exist in Roraima, Brazil, where there are municipalities with a significant prevalence of disease. The indigenous population is highly mobile, crossing state and international borders, raising the possibility of trachoma in neighboring countries. Trachoma prevalence among the contacts of students with trachoma was higher than the school population, highlighting the importance of contact tracing.

Prevalência de tracoma entre escolares brasileiros

OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência e descrever a distribuição do tracoma entre escolares em municípios brasileiros. MÉTODOS: Estudo de corte transversal, usando amostragem por conglomerados, da população escolar dos municípios brasileiros com Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano-Municipal menor que a média nacional. O inquérito de prevalência de tracoma foi realizado pelo Ministério da Saúde entre 2002 e 2007. Foram selecionados 119.531 alunos de 2.270 escolas localizadas em 1.156 municípios. Os alunos foram submetidos ao exame ocular externo, com lupa (2,5X), para detecção de sinais clínicos de tracoma segundo critérios da OMS. Estimou-se a prevalência de tracoma segundo estado e em nível nacional, e seus respectivos intervalos de 95% de confi ança. Para a comparação de variáveis categóricas foram usados os testes do Qui-quadrado e do Qui-quadrado de tendência linear. RESULTADOS: Foram detectados 6.030 casos de tracoma, resultando em prevalência de 5,0% (IC95% 4,5;5,4). Não foi encontrada diferença signifi cante entre os sexos. A prevalência de tracoma foi de 8,2% entre menores de cinco anos de idade, diminuindo nas faixas etárias mais altas (p < 0,01). Houve diferença signifi cante entre as prevalências de tracoma na zona urbana e rural, 4,3% versus 6,2%, respectivamente (p < 0,01). Foram detectados casos em 901 municípios (77,7% da amostra), em todas as regiões do País. Em 36,8% dos municípios selecionados a prevalência foi superior a 5%. CONCLUSÕES: O estudo mostra que o tracoma é um importante problema de saúde pública no Brasil, contradizendo a crença de que a endemia estaria controlada no País. O inquérito realizado apresenta uma linha de base para avaliação das intervenções planejadas com vistas ao alcance da meta mundial de certifi cação da eliminação do tracoma como causa de cegueira no Brasil, até 2020.

Heat island simulations in Londrina city, Brazil

This work aims to study the urban heat island on North region of Parana state, Brazil and the influence of land use and urban settlements on the intensity and frequency of occurrence of these events. Through atmospheric modeling whith WRF/Chem model two simulations were made with different land and use files, one with the original land use another obtained from a composition of MODIS-Landsat imagery. The simulations showed good skills compared to observed data. Urban areas presented higher temperatures. Landsat land use has represented better urban heat islands (UHI), the gradient between urban and rural areas was well demonstrated and the correlation coefficient was above 0.92. The model underestimated the maximum values and overestimated the minimum compared with observed data in both simulations.

Politiche di sviluppo e questione etnica. La cooperazione italiana IN Bosnia Erzegovina

The globalization process of the last twenty years has changed the world through international flows of people, policies and practices. International cooperation to development is a part of that process and brought International Organizations (IOs) and Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs) from the West to the rest of the world. In my thesis I analyze the Italian NGOs that worked in Bosnia Herzegovina (BH) to understand which development projects they realized and how they faced the ethnic issue that characterized BH. I consider the relation shaped between Italian NGOs and Bosnian civil society as an object of ethnic interests. In BH, once part of former Yugoslavia, the transition from the communist regime to a democratic country has not been completed. BH’s social conditions are characterized by strong ethnic divisions. The legacy of the early 1990s crisis was a phenomenon of ethnic identities created before the war and that still endure today. The Dayton Peace Agreement signed in 1995 granted the peace and reinforced the inter-ethnic hate between the newly recognized three principal ethnicities: Serbs, Croats and Bosniak. Through the new constitution, the institutions were characterized by division at every level, from the top to the bottom of society. Besides it was the first constitution ever written and signed outside the own country; that was the root of the state of exception that characterized BH. Thus ethnic identities culture survived through the international political involvement. At the same time ethnic groups that dominated the political debate clashed with the international organization’s democratic purpose to build a multicultural and democratic state. Ethnic and also religious differences were the instruments for a national statement that might cause the transition and development projects failure. Fifteen years later social fragmentation was still present and it established an atmosphere of daily cultural violence. Civil society suffered this condition and attended to recreate the ethnic fragmentation in every day life. Some cities became physically divided and other cities don’t tolerated the minority presence. In rural areas, the division was more explicit, from village to village, without integration. In my speech, the anthropology for development – the derivative study from applied anthropology – constitutes the point of view that I used to understand how ethnic identities still influenced the development process in BH. I done ethnographic research about the Italian cooperation for development projects that were working there in 2007. The target of research were the Italian NGOs that created a relation with Bosnian civil society; they were almost twenty divided in four main field of competences: institutional building, education, agriculture and democratization. I assumed that NGOs work needed a deep study because the bottom of society is the place where people could really change their representation and behavior. Italian NGOs operated in BH with the aim of creating sustainable development. They found cultural barricade that both institutions and civil society erected when development projects have been applied. Ethnic and religious differences were stressed to maintain boundaries and fragmented power. Thus NGOs tried to negotiate development projects by social integration. I found that NGOs worked among ethnic groups by pursuing a new integration. They often gained success among people; civil society was ready to accept development projects and overcome differences. On the other hand NGOs have been limited by political level that sustained the ethnic talk and by their representation of Bosnian issue. Thus development policies have been impeded by ethnic issue and by cooperation practices established on a top down perspective. Paradoxically, since international community has approved the political ethnic division within DPA, then the willing of development followed by funding NGOs cooperation projects was not completely successful.

Farm tourism: a cross-country empirical study in Germany and Italy

PROBLEM In the last few years farm tourism or agritourism as it is also referred to has enjoyed increasing success because of its generally acknowledged role as a promoter of economic and social development of rural areas. As a consequence, a plethora of studies have been dedicated to this tourist sector, focusing on a variety of issues. Nevertheless, despite the difficulties of many farmers to orient their business towards potential customers, the contribution of the marketing literature has been moderate. PURPOSE This dissertation builds upon studies which advocate the necessity of farm tourism to innovate itself according to the increasingly demanding needs of customers. Henceforth, the purpose of this dissertation is to critically evaluate the level of professionalism reached in the farm tourism market within a marketing approach. METHODOLOGY This dissertation is a cross-country perspective incorporating the marketing of farm tourism studied in Germany and Italy. Hence, the marketing channels of this tourist sector are examined both from the supply and the demand side by means of five exploratory studies. The data collection has been conducted in the timeframe of 2006 to 2009 in manifold ways (online survey, catalogues of industry associations, face-to-face interviews, etc.) according to the purpose of the research of each study project. The data have been analyzed using multivariate statistical analysis. FINDINGS A comprehensive literature review provides the state of the art of the main differences and similarities of farm tourism in the two countries of study. The main findings contained in the empirical chapters provide insights on many aspects of agritourism including how the expectations of farm operators and customers differ, which development scenarios of farm tourism are more likely to meet individuals’ needs, how new technologies can impact the demand for farm tourism, etc. ORIGINALITY/VALUE The value of this study is in the investigation of the process by which farmers’ participation in the development of this sector intersects with consumer consumption patterns. Focusing on this process should allow farm operators and others including related businesses to more efficiently allocate resources.

Biomass Gasification - Process analysis and dimensioning aspects for downdraft units and gas cleaning lines

In such territories where food production is mostly scattered in several small / medium size or even domestic farms, a lot of heterogeneous residues are produced yearly, since farmers usually carry out different activities in their properties. The amount and composition of farm residues, therefore, widely change during year, according to the single production process periodically achieved. Coupling high efficiency micro-cogeneration energy units with easy handling biomass conversion equipments, suitable to treat different materials, would provide many important advantages to the farmers and to the community as well, so that the increase in feedstock flexibility of gasification units is nowadays seen as a further paramount step towards their wide spreading in rural areas and as a real necessity for their utilization at small scale. Two main research topics were thought to be of main concern at this purpose, and they were therefore discussed in this work: the investigation of fuels properties impact on gasification process development and the technical feasibility of small scale gasification units integration with cogeneration systems. According to these two main aspects, the present work was thus divided in two main parts. The first one is focused on the biomass gasification process, that was investigated in its theoretical aspects and then analytically modelled in order to simulate thermo-chemical conversion of different biomass fuels, such as wood (park waste wood and softwood), wheat straw, sewage sludge and refuse derived fuels. The main idea is to correlate the results of reactor design procedures with the physical properties of biomasses and the corresponding working conditions of gasifiers (temperature profile, above all), in order to point out the main differences which prevent the use of the same conversion unit for different materials. At this scope, a gasification kinetic free model was initially developed in Excel sheets, considering different values of air to biomass ratio and the downdraft gasification technology as particular examined application. The differences in syngas production and working conditions (process temperatures, above all) among the considered fuels were tried to be connected to some biomass properties, such elementary composition, ash and water contents. The novelty of this analytical approach was the use of kinetic constants ratio in order to determine oxygen distribution among the different oxidation reactions (regarding volatile matter only) while equilibrium of water gas shift reaction was considered in gasification zone, by which the energy and mass balances involved in the process algorithm were linked together, as well. Moreover, the main advantage of this analytical tool is the easiness by which the input data corresponding to the particular biomass materials can be inserted into the model, so that a rapid evaluation on their own thermo-chemical conversion properties is possible to be obtained, mainly based on their chemical composition A good conformity of the model results with the other literature and experimental data was detected for almost all the considered materials (except for refuse derived fuels, because of their unfitting chemical composition with the model assumptions). Successively, a dimensioning procedure for open core downdraft gasifiers was set up, by the analysis on the fundamental thermo-physical and thermo-chemical mechanisms which are supposed to regulate the main solid conversion steps involved in the gasification process. Gasification units were schematically subdivided in four reaction zones, respectively corresponding to biomass heating, solids drying, pyrolysis and char gasification processes, and the time required for the full development of each of these steps was correlated to the kinetics rates (for pyrolysis and char gasification processes only) and to the heat and mass transfer phenomena from gas to solid phase. On the basis of this analysis and according to the kinetic free model results and biomass physical properties (particles size, above all) it was achieved that for all the considered materials char gasification step is kinetically limited and therefore temperature is the main working parameter controlling this step. Solids drying is mainly regulated by heat transfer from bulk gas to the inner layers of particles and the corresponding time especially depends on particle size. Biomass heating is almost totally achieved by the radiative heat transfer from the hot walls of reactor to the bed of material. For pyrolysis, instead, working temperature, particles size and the same nature of biomass (through its own pyrolysis heat) have all comparable weights on the process development, so that the corresponding time can be differently depending on one of these factors according to the particular fuel is gasified and the particular conditions are established inside the gasifier. The same analysis also led to the estimation of reaction zone volumes for each biomass fuel, so as a comparison among the dimensions of the differently fed gasification units was finally accomplished. Each biomass material showed a different volumes distribution, so that any dimensioned gasification unit does not seem to be suitable for more than one biomass species. Nevertheless, since reactors diameters were found out quite similar for all the examined materials, it could be envisaged to design a single units for all of them by adopting the largest diameter and by combining together the maximum heights of each reaction zone, as they were calculated for the different biomasses. A total height of gasifier as around 2400mm would be obtained in this case. Besides, by arranging air injecting nozzles at different levels along the reactor, gasification zone could be properly set up according to the particular material is in turn gasified. Finally, since gasification and pyrolysis times were found to considerably change according to even short temperature variations, it could be also envisaged to regulate air feeding rate for each gasified material (which process temperatures depend on), so as the available reactor volumes would be suitable for the complete development of solid conversion in each case, without even changing fluid dynamics behaviour of the unit as well as air/biomass ratio in noticeable measure. The second part of this work dealt with the gas cleaning systems to be adopted downstream the gasifiers in order to run high efficiency CHP units (i.e. internal engines and micro-turbines). Especially in the case multi–fuel gasifiers are assumed to be used, weightier gas cleaning lines need to be envisaged in order to reach the standard gas quality degree required to fuel cogeneration units. Indeed, as the more heterogeneous feed to the gasification unit, several contaminant species can simultaneously be present in the exit gas stream and, as a consequence, suitable gas cleaning systems have to be designed. In this work, an overall study on gas cleaning lines assessment is carried out. Differently from the other research efforts carried out in the same field, the main scope is to define general arrangements for gas cleaning lines suitable to remove several contaminants from the gas stream, independently on the feedstock material and the energy plant size The gas contaminant species taken into account in this analysis were: particulate, tars, sulphur (in H2S form), alkali metals, nitrogen (in NH3 form) and acid gases (in HCl form). For each of these species, alternative cleaning devices were designed according to three different plant sizes, respectively corresponding with 8Nm3/h, 125Nm3/h and 350Nm3/h gas flows. Their performances were examined on the basis of their optimal working conditions (efficiency, temperature and pressure drops, above all) and their own consumption of energy and materials. Successively, the designed units were combined together in different overall gas cleaning line arrangements, paths, by following some technical constraints which were mainly determined from the same performance analysis on the cleaning units and from the presumable synergic effects by contaminants on the right working of some of them (filters clogging, catalysts deactivation, etc.). One of the main issues to be stated in paths design accomplishment was the tars removal from the gas stream, preventing filters plugging and/or line pipes clogging At this scope, a catalytic tars cracking unit was envisaged as the only solution to be adopted, and, therefore, a catalytic material which is able to work at relatively low temperatures was chosen. Nevertheless, a rapid drop in tars cracking efficiency was also estimated for this same material, so that an high frequency of catalysts regeneration and a consequent relevant air consumption for this operation were calculated in all of the cases. Other difficulties had to be overcome in the abatement of alkali metals, which condense at temperatures lower than tars, but they also need to be removed in the first sections of gas cleaning line in order to avoid corrosion of materials. In this case a dry scrubber technology was envisaged, by using the same fine particles filter units and by choosing for them corrosion resistant materials, like ceramic ones. Besides these two solutions which seem to be unavoidable in gas cleaning line design, high temperature gas cleaning lines were not possible to be achieved for the two larger plant sizes, as well. Indeed, as the use of temperature control devices was precluded in the adopted design procedure, ammonia partial oxidation units (as the only considered methods for the abatement of ammonia at high temperature) were not suitable for the large scale units, because of the high increase of reactors temperature by the exothermic reactions involved in the process. In spite of these limitations, yet, overall arrangements for each considered plant size were finally designed, so that the possibility to clean the gas up to the required standard degree was technically demonstrated, even in the case several contaminants are simultaneously present in the gas stream. Moreover, all the possible paths defined for the different plant sizes were compared each others on the basis of some defined operational parameters, among which total pressure drops, total energy losses, number of units and secondary materials consumption. On the basis of this analysis, dry gas cleaning methods proved preferable to the ones including water scrubber technology in al of the cases, especially because of the high water consumption provided by water scrubber units in ammonia adsorption process. This result is yet connected to the possibility to use activated carbon units for ammonia removal and Nahcolite adsorber for chloride acid. The very high efficiency of this latter material is also remarkable. Finally, as an estimation of the overall energy loss pertaining the gas cleaning process, the total enthalpy losses estimated for the three plant sizes were compared with the respective gas streams energy contents, these latter obtained on the basis of low heating value of gas only. This overall study on gas cleaning systems is thus proposed as an analytical tool by which different gas cleaning line configurations can be evaluated, according to the particular practical application they are adopted for and the size of cogeneration unit they are connected to.

Un modello multicriteriale di supporto alla pianificazione territoriale finalizzato alla classificazione del territorio rurale e alla caratterizzazione dell’Impronta Agro ambientale delle aree agricole periurbane.

La ricerca proposta si pone l’obiettivo di definire e sperimentare un metodo per un’articolata e sistematica lettura del territorio rurale, che, oltre ad ampliare la conoscenza del territorio, sia di supporto ai processi di pianificazione paesaggistici ed urbanistici e all’attuazione delle politiche agricole e di sviluppo rurale. Un’approfondita disamina dello stato dell’arte riguardante l’evoluzione del processo di urbanizzazione e le conseguenze dello stesso in Italia e in Europa, oltre che del quadro delle politiche territoriali locali nell’ambito del tema specifico dello spazio rurale e periurbano, hanno reso possibile, insieme a una dettagliata analisi delle principali metodologie di analisi territoriale presenti in letteratura, la determinazione del concept alla base della ricerca condotta. E’ stata sviluppata e testata una metodologia multicriteriale e multilivello per la lettura del territorio rurale sviluppata in ambiente GIS, che si avvale di algoritmi di clustering (quale l’algoritmo IsoCluster) e classificazione a massima verosimiglianza, focalizzando l’attenzione sugli spazi agricoli periurbani. Tale metodo si incentra sulla descrizione del territorio attraverso la lettura di diverse componenti dello stesso, quali quelle agro-ambientali e socio-economiche, ed opera una sintesi avvalendosi di una chiave interpretativa messa a punto allo scopo, l’Impronta Agroambientale (Agro-environmental Footprint - AEF), che si propone di quantificare il potenziale impatto degli spazi rurali sul sistema urbano. In particolare obiettivo di tale strumento è l’identificazione nel territorio extra-urbano di ambiti omogenei per caratteristiche attraverso una lettura del territorio a differenti scale (da quella territoriale a quella aziendale) al fine di giungere ad una sua classificazione e quindi alla definizione delle aree classificabili come “agricole periurbane”. La tesi propone la presentazione dell’architettura complessiva della metodologia e la descrizione dei livelli di analisi che la compongono oltre che la successiva sperimentazione e validazione della stessa attraverso un caso studio rappresentativo posto nella Pianura Padana (Italia).

Urban water demand model: the case study of Emilia Romagna (Italy)

Water is the driving force in nature. We use water for washing cars, doing laundry, cooking, taking a shower, but also to generate energy and electricity. Therefore water is a necessary product in our daily lives (USGS. Howard Perlman, 2013). The model that we created is based on the urban water demand computer model from the Pacific Institute (California). With this model we will forecast the future urban water use of Emilia Romagna up to the year of 2030. We will analyze the urban water demand in Emilia Romagna that includes the 9 provinces: Bologna, Ferrara, Forli-Cesena, Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Ravenna, Reggio Emilia and Rimini. The term urban water refers to the water used in cities and suburbs and in homes in the rural areas. This will include the residential, commercial, institutional and the industrial use. In this research, we will cover the water saving technologies that can help to save water for daily use. We will project what influence these technologies have to the urban water demand, and what it can mean for future urban water demands. The ongoing climate change can reduce the snowpack, and extreme floods or droughts in Italy. The changing climate and development patterns are expected to have a significant impact on water demand in the future. We will do this by conducting different scenario analyses, by combining different population projections, climate influence and water saving technologies. In addition, we will also conduct a sensitivity analyses. The several analyses will show us how future urban water demand is likely respond to changes in water conservation technologies, population, climate, water price and consumption. I hope the research can contribute to the insight of the reader’s thoughts and opinion.

Il cambiamento della ruralità nell'Unione Europea. Tipologie, evoluzione e risposte alle politiche

Obiettivo del lavoro è migliorare la lettura della ruralità europea. A fronte delle profonde trasformazioni avvenute, oggi non è più possibile analizzare i territori rurali adottando un mero approccio dicotomico che semplicemente li distingua dalle città. Al contrario, il lavoro integra l’analisi degli aspetti socio-economici con quella degli elementi territoriali, esaltando le principali dimensioni che caratterizzano le tante tipologie di ruralità oggi presenti in Europa. Muovendo dal dibattito sulla classificazione delle aree rurali, si propone dapprima un indicatore sintetico di ruralità che, adottando la logica fuzzy, considera congiuntamente aspetti demografici (densità), settoriali (rilevanza dell’attività agricola), territoriali e geografici (accessibilità e uso del suolo). Tale tecnica permette di ricostruire un continuum di gradi di ruralità, distinguendo così, all’interno dell’Unione Europea (circa 1.300 osservazioni), le aree più centrali da quelle progressivamente più rurali e periferiche. Successivamente, attraverso un’analisi cluster vengono individuate tipologie di aree omogenee in termini di struttura economica, paesaggio, diversificazione dell’attività agricola. Tali cluster risentono anche della distribuzione geografica delle aree stesse: vengono infatti distinti gruppi di regioni centrali da gruppi di regioni più periferiche. Tale analisi evidenzia soprattutto come il binomio ruralità-arretratezza risulti ormai superato: alcune aree rurali, infatti, hanno tratto vantaggio dalle trasformazioni che hanno interessato l’Unione Europea negli ultimi decenni (diffusione dell’ICT o sviluppo della manifattura). L’ultima parte del lavoro offre strumenti di analisi a supporto dell’azione politica comunitaria, analizzando la diversa capacità delle regioni europee di rispondere alle sfide lanciate dalla Strategia Europa 2020. Un’analisi in componenti principali sintetizza le principali dimensioni di tale performance regionale: i risultati sono poi riletti alla luce delle caratteristiche strutturali dei territori europei. Infine, una più diretta analisi spaziale dei dati permette di evidenziare come la geografia influenzi ancora profondamente la capacità dei territori di rispondere alle nuove sfide del decennio.

Tipologia e diffusione delle produzioni ceramiche in Romagna tra XIII e XV secolo

In questo lavoro si è avuta la possibilità di studiare e confrontare i reperti ceramici provenienti da tre recenti scavi condotti nella zona della Romagna dall’Università di Bologna: il monastero di San Severo a Classe (RA), il castello di Rontana (Brisighella-RA) e la pieve di S. Reparata a Terra del Sole (FC). Si tratta di scavi ancora inediti differenti tra loro sia per connotazione distrettuale di appartenenza che per tipologia insediativa La cesura cronologica che si è preso in esame va dal XIII a XV secolo. Il XIII secolo corrisponde a un periodo in cui si assiste ad una riapertura dei trasporti a lunga distanza e si diffonde la tendenza al trasferimento dei saperi tecnici da Oriente verso Occidente, fenomeno che include l’introduzione di nuove tecnologie produttive in campo ceramico come l’ingobbio e la maiolica in diversi centri urbani. Si passa poi attraverso il XIV secolo, momento in cui alcune produzioni, come quella della maiolica, raggiungono la loro massima diffusione, con una diversificazione qualitativa dei prodotti, raggiungendo anche l’ambito rurale, e si assiste alla moltiplicazione dei centri di produzione. Si arriva così al XV secolo periodo in cui iniziano ad affermarsi dei veri e propri centri produttivi “industriali”, rappresentativi anche di una specializzazione regionale dei prodotti di qualità medio-alta. La possibilità di confrontare materiali di siti così differenti tra loro ha dato modo di sottolineare analogie e differenze anche tra città e campagna, in un territorio come quello romagnolo che ancora risente del peso della lunga tradizione antiquaria che ha caratterizzato gli studi fino al secolo scorso.

A new information fusion method for land-use classification using high resolution satellite imagery

Satellite image classification involves designing and developing efficient image classifiers. With satellite image data and image analysis methods multiplying rapidly, selecting the right mix of data sources and data analysis approaches has become critical to the generation of quality land-use maps. In this study, a new postprocessing information fusion algorithm for the extraction and representation of land-use information based on high-resolution satellite imagery is presented. This approach can produce land-use maps with sharp interregional boundaries and homogeneous regions. The proposed approach is conducted in five steps. First, a GIS layer - ATKIS data - was used to generate two coarse homogeneous regions, i.e. urban and rural areas. Second, a thematic (class) map was generated by use of a hybrid spectral classifier combining Gaussian Maximum Likelihood algorithm (GML) and ISODATA classifier. Third, a probabilistic relaxation algorithm was performed on the thematic map, resulting in a smoothed thematic map. Fourth, edge detection and edge thinning techniques were used to generate a contour map with pixel-width interclass boundaries. Fifth, the contour map was superimposed on the thematic map by use of a region-growing algorithm with the contour map and the smoothed thematic map as two constraints. For the operation of the proposed method, a software package is developed using programming language C. This software package comprises the GML algorithm, a probabilistic relaxation algorithm, TBL edge detector, an edge thresholding algorithm, a fast parallel thinning algorithm, and a region-growing information fusion algorithm. The county of Landau of the State Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany was selected as a test site. The high-resolution IRS-1C imagery was used as the principal input data.

Protocol for a population-based study of rheumatic heart disease prevalence and cardiovascular outcomes among schoolchildren in Nepal

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in developing countries. The reported prevalence rates of RHD are highly variable and mainly attributable to differences in the sensitivity of either clinical screening to detect advanced heart disease or echocardiographic evaluation where disease is diagnosed earlier across a continuous spectrum. The clinical significance of diagnosis of subclinical RHD by echocardiographic screening and early implementation of secondary prevention has not been clearly established. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The authors designed a cross-sectional survey to determine the prevalence of RHD in children from private and public schools between the age of 5 and 15 years in urban and rural areas of Eastern Nepal using both cardiac auscultation and echocardiographic evaluation. Children with RHD will be treated with secondary prevention and enrolled in a prospective cohort study. The authors will compare the prevalence rates by cardiac auscultation and echocardiography, determine risk factors associated with diagnosis and progression of RHD, investigate social and economic barriers for receiving adequate cardiac care and assess clinical outcomes with regular medical surveillance as a function of stage of disease at the time of diagnosis. Prospective clinical studies investigating the impact of secondary prevention for subclinical RHD on long-term clinical outcome will be of central relevance for future health resource utilisation in developing countries. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was considered ethically uncritical and was given an exempt status by the ethics committee at University of Bern, Switzerland. The study has been submitted to the National Nepal Health Research Council and was registered with http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01550068). The study findings will be reported in peer-reviewed publications. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01550068.