An oracle approach for interaction neighborhood estimation in random fields

We consider the problem of interaction neighborhood estimation from the partial observation of a finite number of realizations of a random field. We introduce a model selection rule to choose estimators of conditional probabilities among natural candidates. Our main result is an oracle inequality satisfied by the resulting estimator. We use then this selection rule in a two-step procedure to evaluate the interacting neighborhoods. The selection rule selects a small prior set of possible interacting points and a cutting step remove from this prior set the irrelevant points. We also prove that the Ising models satisfy the assumptions of the main theorems, without restrictions on the temperature, on the structure of the interacting graph or on the range of the interactions. It provides therefore a large class of applications for our results. We give a computationally efficient procedure in these models. We finally show the practical efficiency of our approach in a simulation study.

Insulin and leptin relations in obesity: a multimedia approach

Obesity has been recognized as a worldwide public health problem. It significantly increases the chances of developing several diseases, including Type II diabetes. The roles of insulin and leptin in obesity involve reactions that can be better understood when they are presented step by step. The aim of this work was to design software with data from some of the most recent publications on obesity, especially those concerning the roles of insulin and leptin in this metabolic disturbance. The most notable characteristic of this software is the use of animations representing the cellular response together with the presentation of recently discovered mechanisms on the participation of insulin and leptin in processes leading to obesity. The software was field tested in the Biochemistry of Nutrition web-based course. After using the software and discussing its contents in chatrooms, students were asked to answer an evaluation survey about the whole activity and the usefulness of the software within the learning process. The teaching assistants (TA) evaluated the software as a tool to help in the teaching process. The students' and TAs' satisfaction was very evident and encouraged us to move forward with the software development and to improve the use of this kind of educational tool in biochemistry classes.

Historical carbon emissions and uptake from the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon

Tropical ecosystems play a large and complex role in the global carbon cycle. Clearing of natural ecosystems for agriculture leads to large pulses of CO(2) to the atmosphere from terrestrial biomass. Concurrently, the remaining intact ecosystems, especially tropical forests, may be sequestering a large amount of carbon from the atmosphere in response to global environmental changes including climate changes and an increase in atmospheric CO(2). Here we use an approach that integrates census-based historical land use reconstructions, remote-sensing-based contemporary land use change analyses, and simulation modeling of terrestrial biogeochemistry to estimate the net carbon balance over the period 1901-2006 for the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, which is one of the most rapidly changing agricultural frontiers in the world. By the end of this period, we estimate that of the state`s 925 225 km(2), 221 092 km(2) have been converted to pastures and 89 533 km(2) have been converted to croplands, with forest-to-pasture conversions being the dominant land use trajectory but with recent transitions to croplands increasing rapidly in the last decade. These conversions have led to a cumulative release of 4.8 Pg C to the atmosphere, with similar to 80% from forest clearing and 20% from the clearing of cerrado. Over the same period, we estimate that the residual undisturbed ecosystems accumulated 0.3 Pg C in response to CO2 fertilization. Therefore, the net emissions of carbon from Mato Grosso over this period were 4.5 Pg C. Net carbon emissions from Mato Grosso since 2000 averaged 146 Tg C/yr, on the order of Brazil`s fossil fuel emissions during this period. These emissions were associated with the expansion of croplands to grow soybeans. While alternative management regimes in croplands, including tillage, fertilization, and cropping patterns promote carbon storage in ecosystems, they remain a small portion of the net carbon balance for the region. This detailed accounting of a region`s carbon balance is the type of foundation analysis needed by the new United Nations Collaborative Programmme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

Simulation of sugarcane residue decomposition and aboveground growth

Due to the worldwide increase in demand for biofuels, the area cultivated with sugarcane is expected to increase. For environmental and economic reasons, an increasing proportion of the areas are being harvested without burning, leaving the residues on the soil surface. This periodical input of residues affects soil physical, chemical and biological properties, as well as plant growth and nutrition. Modeling can be a useful tool in the study of the complex interactions between the climate, residue quality, and the biological factors controlling plant growth and residue decomposition. The approach taken in this work was to parameterize the CENTURY model for the sugarcane crop, to simulate the temporal dynamics of aboveground phytomass and litter decomposition, and to validate the model through field experiment data. When studying aboveground growth, burned and unburned harvest systems were compared, as well as the effect of mineral fertilizer and organic residue applications. The simulations were performed with data from experiments with different durations, from 12 months to 60 years, in Goiana, TimbaA(0)ba and Pradpolis, Brazil; Harwood, Mackay and Tully, Australia; and Mount Edgecombe, South Africa. The differentiation of two pools in the litter, with different decomposition rates, was found to be a relevant factor in the simulations made. Originally, the model had a basically unlimited layer of mulch directly available for decomposition, 5,000 g m(-2). Through a parameter optimization process, the thickness of the mulch layer closer to the soil, more vulnerable to decomposition, was set as 110 g m(-2). By changing the layer of mulch at any given time available for decomposition, the sugarcane residues decomposition simulations where close to measured values (R (2) = 0.93), contributing to making the CENTURY model a tool for the study of sugarcane litter decomposition patterns. The CENTURY model accurately simulated aboveground carbon stalk values (R (2) = 0.76), considering burned and unburned harvest systems, plots with and without nitrogen fertilizer and organic amendment applications, in different climates and soil conditions.

DISTRIBUTION OF CAPYBARAS IN AN AGROECOSYSTEM, SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL, BASED ON ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING

Southeastern Brazil has seen dramatic landscape modifications in recent decades, due to expansion of agriculture and urban areas; these changes have influenced the distribution and abundance of vertebrates. We developed predictive models of ecological and spatial distributions of capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) using ecological niche modeling. Most Occurrences of capybaras were in flat areas with water bodies Surrounded by sugarcane and pasture. More than 75% of the Piracicaba River basin was estimated as potentially habitable by capybara. The models had low omission error (2.3-3.4%), but higher commission error (91.0-98.5%); these ""model failures"" seem to be more related to local habitat characteristics than to spatial ones. The potential distribution of capybaras in the basin is associated with anthropogenic habitats, particularly with intensive land use for agriculture.

A new approach for in vitro bioassay to measure tannin biological effects based on a gas production technique

The aim of this paper was to study a method based on gas production technique to measure the biological effects of tannins on rumen fermentation. Six feeds were used as fermentation substrates in a semi-automated gas method: feed A - aroeira (Astronium urundeuva); feed B - jurema preta (Mimosa hostilis), feed C - sorghum grains (Sorghum bicolor); feed D - Tifton-85 (Cynodon sp.); and two others prepared mixing 450 g sorghum leaves, 450 g concentrate (maize and soybean meal) and 100 g either of acacia (Acacia mearnsii) tannin extract (feed E) or quebracho (Schinopsis lorentzii) tannin extract (feed F) per kg (w:w). Three assays were carried out to standardize the bioassay for tannins. The first assay compared two binding agents (polyethylene glycol - PEG - and polyvinyl polypirrolidone - PVPP) to attenuate the tannin effects. The complex formed by PEG and tannins showed to be more stable than PVPP and tannins. Then, in the second assay, PEG was used as binding agent, and this assay was done to evaluate levels of PEG (0, 500, 750, 1000 and 1250 mg/g DM) to minimize the tannin effect. All the tested levels of PEG produced a response to evaluate tannin effects but the best response was for dose of 1000 mg/g DM. Using this dose of PEG, the final assay was carried out to test three compounds (tannic acid, quebracho extract and acacia extract) to establish a curve of biological equivalent effect of tannins. For this, five levels of each compound were added to I g of a standard feed (Lucerne hay). The equivalent effect showed not to be directly related to the chemical analysis for tannins. It was shown that different sources of tannins had different activities or reactivities. The curves of biological equivalence can provide information about tannin reactivity and its use seems to be important as an additional factor for chemical analysis. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous optimization by neuro-genetic approach for analysis of plant materials by laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

A simultaneous optimization strategy based on a neuro-genetic approach is proposed for selection of laser induced breakdown spectroscopy operational conditions for the simultaneous determination of macronutrients (Ca, Mg and P), micro-nutrients (B, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn), Al and Si in plant samples. A laser induced breakdown spectroscopy system equipped with a 10 Hz Q-switched Nd:YAG laser (12 ns, 532 nm, 140 mJ) and an Echelle spectrometer with intensified coupled-charge device was used. Integration time gate, delay time, amplification gain and number of pulses were optimized. Pellets of spinach leaves (NIST 1570a) were employed as laboratory samples. In order to find a model that could correlate laser induced breakdown spectroscopy operational conditions with compromised high peak areas of all elements simultaneously, a Bayesian Regularized Artificial Neural Network approach was employed. Subsequently, a genetic algorithm was applied to find optimal conditions for the neural network model, in an approach called neuro-genetic, A single laser induced breakdown spectroscopy working condition that maximizes peak areas of all elements simultaneously, was obtained with the following optimized parameters: 9.0 mu s integration time gate, 1.1 mu s delay time, 225 (a.u.) amplification gain and 30 accumulated laser pulses. The proposed approach is a useful and a suitable tool for the optimization process of such a complex analytical problem. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Zone trapping/merging zones in flow analysis: A novel approach for rapid assays involving relatively slow chemical reactions

A novel strategy for accomplishing zone trapping in flow analysis is proposed. The sample and the reagent solutions are simultaneously inserted into convergent carrier streams and the established zones merge together before reaching the detector, where the most concentrated portion of the entire sample zone is trapped. The main characteristics, potentialities and limitations of the strategy were critically evaluated in relation to an analogous flow system with zone stopping. When applied to the spectrophotometric determination of nitrite in river waters, the main figures of merit were maintained, exception made for the sampling frequency which was calculated as 189h(-1), about 32% higher relatively to the analogous system with zone stopping. The sample inserted volume can be increased up to 1.0 mL without affecting sampling frequency and no problems with pump heating or malfunctions were noted after 8-h operation of the system. In contrast to zone stopping, only a small portion of the sample zone is halted with zone trapping, leading to these beneficial effects. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multifractal regime transition in a modified minority game model

The search for more realistic modeling of financial time series reveals several stylized facts of real markets. In this work we focus on the multifractal properties found in price and index signals. Although the usual minority game (MG) models do not exhibit multifractality, we study here one of its variants that does. We show that the nonsynchronous MG models in the nonergodic phase is multifractal and in this sense, together with other stylized facts, constitute a better modeling tool. Using the structure function (SF) approach we detected the stationary and the scaling range of the time series generated by the MG model and, from the linear (non-linear) behavior of the SF we identified the fractal (multifractal) regimes. Finally, using the wavelet transform modulus maxima (WTMM) technique we obtained its multifractal spectrum width for different dynamical regimes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MODELING SCIENTIFIC AGENTS FOR A BETTER SCIENCE

Science is a fundamental human activity and we trust its results because it has several error-correcting mechanisms. It is subject to experimental tests that are replicated by independent parts. Given the huge amount of information available and the information asymetry between producers and users of knowledge, scientists have to rely on the reports of others. This makes it possible for social effects to influence the scientific community. Here, an Opinion Dynamics agent model is proposed to describe this situation. The influence of Nature through experiments is described as an external field that acts on the experimental agents. We will see that the retirement of old scientists can be fundamental in the acceptance of a new theory. We will also investigate the interplay between social influence and observations. This will allow us to gain insight in the problem of when social effects can have negligible effects in the conclusions of a scientific community and when we should worry about them.

Exploring the emission intensities of ICP OES aided by chemometrics in the geographical discrimination of mineral waters

A rapid method for classification of mineral waters is proposed. The discrimination power was evaluated by a novel combination of chemometric data analysis and qualitative multi-elemental fingerprints of mineral water samples acquired from different regions of the Brazilian territory. The classification of mineral waters was assessed using only the wavelength emission intensities obtained by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP OES), monitoring different lines of Al, B, Ba, Ca, Cl, Cu, Co, Cr, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, P, Pb, S, Sb, Si, Sr, Ti, V, and Zn, and Be, Dy, Gd, In, La, Sc and Y as internal standards. Data acquisition was done under robust (RC) and non-robust (NRC) conditions. Also, the combination of signal intensities of two or more emission lines for each element were evaluated instead of the individual lines. The performance of two classification-k-nearest neighbor (kNN) and soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA)-and preprocessing algorithms, autoscaling and Pareto scaling, were evaluated for the ability to differentiate between the various samples in each approach tested (combination of robust or non-robust conditions with use of individual lines or sum of the intensities of emission lines). It was shown that qualitative ICP OES fingerprinting in combination with multivariate analysis is a promising analytical tool that has potential to become a recognized procedure for rapid authenticity and adulteration testing of mineral water samples or other material whose physicochemical properties (or origin) are directly related to mineral content.

The production of school numbers (1871-1931): contributions to a critical approach to statistical sources in History of Education

This article intends to contribute to the reflection on the Educational Statistics as being source for the researches on History of Education. The main concern was to reveal the way Educational Statistics related to the period from 1871 to 1931 were produced, in central government. Official reports - from the General Statistics Directory - and Statistics yearbooks released by that department were analyzed and, on this analysis, recommendations and definitions to perform the works were sought. By rending problematic to the documental issues on Educational Statistics and their usual interpretations, the intention was to reduce the ignorance about the origin of the school numbers, which are occasionally used in current researches without the convenient critical exam.

Experimental chronic low-frequency resistance training produces skeletal muscle hypertrophy in the absence of muscle damage and metabolic stress markers

Volitional animal resistance training constitutes an important approach to modeling human resistance training. However, the lack of standardization protocol poses a frequent impediment to the production of skeletal muscle hypertrophy and the study of related physiological variables (i.e., cellular damage/inflammation or metabolic stress). Therefore, the purposes of the present study were: (1) to test whether a long-term and low frequency experimental resistance training program is capable of producing absolute increases in muscle mass; (2) to examine whether cellular damage/inflammation or metabolic stress is involved in the process of hypertrophy. In order to test this hypothesis, animals were assigned to a sedentary control (C, n = 8) or a resistance trained group (RT, n = 7). Trained rats performed 2 exercise sessions per week (16 repetitions per day) during 12 weeks. Our results demonstrated that the resistance training strategy employed was capable of producing absolute mass gain in both soleus and plantaris muscles (12%, p<0.05). Furthermore, muscle tumor necrosis factor (TNF-alpha) protein expression (soleus muscle) was reduced by 24% (p<0.01) in trained group when compared to sedentary one. Finally, serum creatine kinase (CK) activity and serum lactate concentrations were not affected in either group. Such information may have practical applications if reproduced in situations where skeletal muscle hypertrophy is desired but high mechanical stimuli of skeletal muscle and inflammation are not. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Electrodeposition of copper on titanium wires: Taguchi experimental design approach

Electrodeposition of thin copper layer was carried out on titanium wires in acidic sulphate bath. The influence of titanium surface preparation, cathodic current density, copper sulphate and sulphuric acid concentrations, electrical charge density and stirring of the solution on the adhesion of the electrodeposits was studied using the Taguchi statistical method. A L(16) orthogonal array with the six factors of control at two levels each and three interactions was employed. The analysis of variance of the mean adhesion response and signal-to-noise ratio showed the great influence of cathodic current density on adhesion. on the contrary, the other factors as well as the three investigated interactions revealed low or no significant effect. From this study optimized electrolysis conditions were defined. The copper electrocoating improved the electrical conductivity of the titanium wire. This shows that copper electrocoated titanium wires could be employed for both electrical purpose and mechanical reinforcement in superconducting magnets. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.