906 resultados para Métodos para a tomada de decisão


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This study presents the development of a business plan to assist in decision making. The feasibility of a new plant capable of producing a polymer known as naphthalene sulfonate is being studied. CSN National Steel Company operates in several areas and encourages employees to seek innovation, supports and assists in the development of this project. This study also discusses entrepreneurship and its expansion into the enterprise corporate entrepreneurship. Explaining the importance and the role in large companies. The business plan is a great tool and demonstrated, mainly in the marketing plan, evidences of project feasibility

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With the increase of stakeholders and consequently increase of amount of nancial transaction the study of news investment strategies in the stock market with data mining techniques has been the target of important researches. It allows that great historical data base to be processed and analysed looking for pattern that can be used to take a decision in investments. With the idea of getting pro t more than the real indexs' gain, we propose a strategy method of transactions using rules built by algorithm classi cation. For that, diary historical data of Ibovespa index and Petrobras stocks are organized and processed to nding the most important attribute that act decisively when taking a investment decision.To test the accuracy of proposed rules, a non real portfolio management is created, showing the decisions' performance over the real index and stocks' performance. Following the proposed rules, the results show that the strategy of investment give me back a high return that Stock market's return. The exclusive characteristics of algorithms maximize the gain inside the analysed time allowing to determine the techniques' return and the number of the days necessary to double the initial investment. The best classi er applied on the time series and its use on the propose investments strategy will demand 104 days to double the initial capital

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Among the flow, the flows have the highest destructive potential, may cause disasters with a very high number of victims, as recorded in the events Caraguatatuba (SP) and the Serra das Araras (RJ) in 1967; Valeu do Rio Figueira, in Timbé do Sul (SC) between 1995 and 1996; Vale do Itajaí in Santa Catarina, in 2008, Teresópolis, Petrópolis and Nova Friburgo (RJ), in December 2010 and January 2011. This project aimed to prioritize the main determinants of inducing processes of debris flows by applying the method of decision making AHP (Analytical Hierarch Process). Therefore, the following stages of work were defined: research of the major factors of debris flows, questionnaire design method for application of AHP expert on the subject, analysis of the results obtained from calculating the ratio of consistency and preparation of proposal for hierarchical of conditions for debris flows. From the surveys it was possible to establish a relationship of conditions according to the scale of work, defining three levels: regional (1:250,000 to 1:100,000), Semi-Detail (1:50,000 to 1:25,000) and Detail (1: 10,000 or higher). The factors found were: concentration time, the flood wave, rain, landslide susceptibility (slope), drainage and development in the deposition. The project analyzed the results obtained from the questionnaires, which allowed the ranking of the constraints, contributing to weight constraints in studies of multicriteria mapping of susceptibility to the occurrence of debris flows. The study showed that the most of the analyzed datas were inconsistent because of the different opinion of the judges

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With the imposition of the suspension of production and subsequent banning of incandescent light bulbs will be necessary to replace it by other more energy-efficient. Although the main alternative is the compact fluorescent lamp, the environmental impact caused by it due to incorrect disposal and the amount of harmonics included in the network resulting in losses related to the quality of electric power system makes them sought new alternatives for lighting systems that are efficient and have low environmental impact. In this context, the LED (Lighting Emitting Diode), based on solid-state components, is presented as an option for new projects and replacement of existing lighting. In this work we studied aspects of energy, environmental and economic impacts of a possible replacement of conventional lighting systems for new technology. From laboratory tests and surveys of the costs of different types of lamps used for residential lighting, we performed a comparative analysis considering energy and economic aspects which showed that the LED technology, but has a high initial investment, it is best when power quality and environmental preservation are relevant factors in decision making for the choice of technology to be used in the lighting system

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Through observation of production process of a Vale do Paraiba’s automobile industry, one can encounter in need of improvement related to large uncertainties and variations in the production environment, a fact that inspired the search for solutions that can respond quickly to these changes. This way, the paper describes the development of a flexible manufacturing model, which aims to optimize the process in an automotive sub-assembly industry of the Paraíba Valley. The main objective is to propose a method to promote viable alternatives to easing the assembly of parallel sub performed the assembly of cars. For the construction of the model was necessary to explore concepts of flexible manufacturing and making the data presented in literature, which were vital to ensure the development of the method. The concepts discussed are usually presented at an undergraduate degree in Engineering. Data compiled by the model are able to serve as a strategic benchmark for decision making by managers. Featuring alternative response variables and uncertainties of the organizational environment, a fact that facilitates the management of human resources and productive

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In 2004 two trading environment for contracts of purchase and of electricity energy were established, the Regulated Contracting Environment (RGE) and the Free Contracting Environment (FCE). In the first one, consumers can only buy their energy directly from local electricity distribution, and in the second one, consumers can choose their delivery, amount and type of energy that they will burn through bilateral contracts. Thus, before deciding to migrate to the FCE, it is necessary understanding the rules of marketing, the risk involved and the economic viability of the two markets so can determine which environment has more benefits to the consumer. This paper aims to offer tools to support takeover decision of potentially free costumers, who have the option to migrate to market in order to evaluate the benefits and disadvantages of each market. This paper has also considered the new rules of the third rate cycle, where consumers can opt for green tax. The methodology presented is based on calculations of spending with energy and the risk of flag in captive market and free market in one year

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Nos últimos tempos o futsal tem se desenvolvido muito rapidamente, modificando seu caráter amador e aumentando o número de participantes e de país que o praticam. Essas mudanças têm causado melhoras nas ações técnicas e táticas dos jogadores, além de aumento na rapidez do raciocínio para a tomada de decisão, além da forma física (necessidade de uma capacidade aeróbica e de uma massa muscular desenvolvidas para a melhora do desempenho em quadra). Um dos responsáveis pelo desenvolvimento do futsal foram os avanços na tecnologia que através de ferramentas específicas facilitam e auxiliam na evolução da equipe no decorrer dos treinamentos e jogos. Desta forma, as equipes conseguem controlar os aspectos técnicos, táticos, físicos e psicológicos que ocorrem com a equipe, podendo obter dados quantitativos e qualitativos que ajudam a alcançar melhor performance dos atletas e da equipe. Um exemplo destas ferramentas é o “scout”, o qual se mostra um instrumento viável para uma avaliação técnica e tática de uma equipe. Através desta ferramenta pode-se avaliar detalhes importantes do jogo como o número de finalizações (eficiência do ataque), local de finalização, número de desarmes, passes certos e errados, tanto da sua equipe como também da equipe adversária. Com isso, com o auxilio do “scout” independentemente da tecnologia que se utilize, mais avançadas como softwares específicos ou menos sofisticadas como planilhas de anotações, consegue-se além de realizar uma avaliação individual da condição técnica do atleta também analisar os sistemas de defesa e ataque de uma equipe.Assim, o objetivo deste estudo foi de verificar e comparar a relação de acerto e erro das ações de passe, desarme e finalização apresentado pelas equipes vencedoras e as perdedoras de partidas de futsal, vislumbrando...(Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo)

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Through observation of the production process industries today, one can encounter the needs of the large uncertainties related improvements and changes in the production environment, a fact that inspired the search for solutions that can respond quickly to these changes. Thus, this paper describes the review of implementation of TPM (total productivity management), which aims to optimize two distinct processes in the Vale do Paraíba´s pharmaceutical industry one of through the pillar of specific improvement. The main objective is to propose an efficient alternative to proposing loss management processes by identifying and eliminating the same in a systematic process. To develop this analysis was necessary to explore concepts of TPM and tools that help in taking data, identification and clarification of the phenomena that cause failures in the process, which were essential to ensure the development of the analysis. The concepts covered are usually presented during an undergraduate degree in Engineering. Data compiled by the analysis are able to serve as a strategic benchmark for decision making by managers, providing alternative response variables and uncertainty of the organizational environment, a fact that facilitates the management of human resources and productive

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The main objective of the presented study is the development of a predictive interval type-2 fuzzy inference system in order to estimate the mortality risk for a newborn, to be used as an auxiliary tool for decision making in medical centers where there is a lack of professionals for this purpose and, afterwards, to compare its performance to a type-1 fuzzy system. The input variables were chosen due to their acquisition ‘simplicity, not involving any invasive tests, such as blood tests or other specific tests. The variables are easily obtained in the first few minutes of life: birth weight, gestational age at delivery, 5-minute Apgar score and previous report of stillbirth. Databases from the DATASUS were used to validate the model. 1351 records from the city of São José dos Campos, a mid-sized city in the São Paulo state’s countryside, were considered in this study. Finally, an analysis using the ROC curve was performed to estimate the model’s accuracy

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The mathematical models are critical to determine theoretical prices of options and analyze whether they are overrated or underrated. This information strongly influence in operations carried out by the investor. Therefore, it is necessary that the employee model present high degree of reliability and be consistent with the reality of investment to which it is intended. In this sense, this dissertation aims to apply the steps of mathematical modeling in the Pricing of options for decision making in the investment of a hydroelectric power plant. Was used a Monte Carlo simulation, with the Latin Hypercube Method, to determine the volatility of returns of the project. In order to validate the proposed model, compared to the results found by the Binomial Model, which is one of the models most used in this type of investment. The results reinforce the hypothesis that the mathematical modeling with the Binomial Model is critical to investment decision-making in hydroelectric power

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The optimal supply chain management (SCM) is considered by the companies a new frontier in order to gain efficiently competitive advantage. Through the SCM companies must define their competitive strategies by positioning inside the supply chain wich belongs both as suppliers and as consumers. The main objectives of SCM is integrate multiple suppliers to satisfy the market demand and make possible the synergies between the parts of the supply chain in order to better serve the consumer Meanwhile, selection, evaluation and development of suppliers play important roles in establishing an efficient supply chain. Thus, the SCM covers elements such as manufacturing, assembly, raw materials, and distribution to the final consumer. Due to the factors described, the focus of this paper is to present the Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) application as an appropriate and structured method for the supplier selection of a strategic line of low voltage transformers of a transformers industry and compare it with the selection process currently used by this industry, showing the advantages of applying a multiple criteria decision making method. In this study, the research methodology used was modeling and simulation

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Pós-graduação em Educação Escolar - FCLAR

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Este artigo descreve os trabalhos executados junto à região da sub-bacia crítica do Avanhandava e parte da Bacia Hidrográfica do Turvo Grande. Um conjunto de dados foi coletado in loco, por meio do trabalho de campo e desenvolvido um sistema computacional com recursos georreferenciados de apoio à gestão dos recursos hídricos. Como produto da interação entre o sistema computacional e o trabalho de campo, foi possível traçar a realidade atual de uso dos recursos hídricos e dar subsídios mais precisos para a tomada de decisão com relação às ações preventivas e de recuperação das regiões críticas, além do monitoramento constante e em tempo real.

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Wind power is a type of energy that is still not too explored in Brazil and, because of the lack of experience in projects of this size, there are still some problems during the stages of planning and execution of wind farms projects. One of these problems is related with the parts’ transportation logistics, since these parts are difficult to transport, because of their length, weight or shape. Furthermore, another aggravating factor is the lack of options regarding to the transportation modals that are available to do the route between the manufacture place and the project site. To help in the decision-making process about the ideal transportation configuration, aiming to reduce the dependence of the logistics’ coordinator, it was chosen to use he AHP method to compare some criteria that have influence in the modal’s choice process. The criteria, determined by the members of the company’s logistics’ department, are: transportation costs, transportation time and the risk of causing damages to the cargo. The results shown by this model, using theoretical background, that standardize the processes related to the modal’s choice

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In this work was developed a fuzzy computational model type-2 predictive interval, using the software of the type-2 fuzzy MATLAB toolbox, the final idea is to estimate the number of hospitalizations of patients with respiratory diseases. The interest in the creation of this model is to assist in decision makeshift hospital environment, where there are no medical or professional equipment available to provide the care that the population need. It began working with the study of fuzzy logic, the fuzzy inference system and fuzzy toolbox. Through a real database provided by the Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS) and Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Básico (CETESB), was possible to start the model. The analyzed database is composed of the number of patients admitted with respiratory diseases a day for the public hospital in São José dos Campos, during the year 2009 and by factors such as PM10, SO2, wind and humidity. These factors were analyzed as input variables and, through these, is possible to get the number of admissions a day, which is the output variable of the model. For data analysis we used the fuzzy control method type-2 Mamdani. In the following steps the performance developed in this work was compared with the performance of the same model using fuzzy logic type-1. Finally, the validity of the models was estimated by the ROC curve