An Italian job: the need for collective wage bargaining reform. Bruegel Policy Brief ISSUE 2016/11 - JULY 2016

Highlights: Since the mid-1990s, Italy has been characterised by a lack of labour productivity growth, combinedwith a 60 percent growth in labour costs, 20 percentage points above euro-area average consumer price growth. As a consequence, Italy has become less competitive compared to its euro-area partners, the profitability of its firms has dropped and real GDP-per-capita has flatlined. • At the root of the substantial discrepancy between wages and productivity is Italy’s system of centralised wage bargaining which, in many ways, is designed without regard for the underlying industrial structure and geographical heterogeneity of the Italian economy.This has fostered perverse incentives and imbalances within Italy. • Collective wage bargaining, and in particular the determination of base salaries, should be moved from the national to the regional level for all contracts, in the public and private sectors.The Mezzogiorno,which might superficially be seen as losing out from this policy, would actually gain the most in competitiveness terms. • Furthermore, measures should be taken so that, in the long run, the Italian industrial structure evolves into a less fragmented small-company-based economy. This firm consolidation would likely expand the use of firm-level agreements and performance payments, and would improve Italy’s productivity and competitiveness overall.

Desempenho de longo prazo de IPOs no Brasil: um estudo para o período de 2004 a 2015

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o desempenho de longo prazo das empresas que abrem o capital no Brasil. Os fenômenos de (1) valorização no primeiro dia de negócios pós-IPO (underpricing) seguido de (2) desempenho inferior ao mercado no longo prazo (long-run underperformance) foram amplamente documentados em trabalhos de outros autores. O foco do estudo está em verificar a persistência dessa baixa performance quando alongamos o período de avaliação para 5 anos. Adicionalmente, o estudo pretende entender que fatores são determinantes no desempenho destas ações no longo prazo. O trabalho analisa 128 IPOs ocorridos no período de 2004 a 2012 na Bovespa. Os resultados apontam para evidências estatisticamente significantes de underpricing. Este underpricing foi mais acentuado entre os anos de 2004 a 2008, período precursor da crise financeira do subprime. Quando se analisa a performance de longo prazo os resultados apontam que a carteira de IPOs apresentou performance abaixo do mercado até o 29° mês. Os IPOs lançados no período pré-crise do subprime tiveram performance abaixo do mercado após 3 anos, enquanto que os IPOs lançados no pós-crise tiveram retorno acima do mercado para 3 e 5 anos. Não foi identificada a persistência da baixa performance dos IPOs além do 29° mês. Três variáveis principais mostraram significância na explicação dos retornos de longo prazo: (1) o período de lançamento das ações, (2) o percentual de alocação de investidores estrangeiros, (3) e a reputação do coordenador da oferta. Os IPOs lançados no período pós-crise do subprime observaram melhor performance no longo prazo. Também apresentaram melhor performance os IPOs com maior presença de investidor estrangeiro. Adicionalmente, existe uma relação inversa entre a reputação do coordenador líder da oferta e a performance de longo prazo.

Health Care Reform or More Affordable Health Care?

This article investigates the impact on the U.S. economy of making health care more affordable. We compare health care cost reductions with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) using a rich life cycle general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. We found that all policies were able to reduce uninsured population, but the PPACA was the most effective: in the long run, less than 5% of Americans would remain uninsured. Cost reductions alleviated the government budget, while tax hikes were needed to finance the reform. Feasible cost reductions are less welfare improving than the PPACA.

Essays on the Effects of Corporate Taxation

Cette thèse est une collection de trois articles en macroéconomie et finances publiques. Elle développe des modèles d'Equilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique pour analyser les implications macroéconomiques des politiques d'imposition des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Le premier chapitre analyse les mécanismes de transmission à l'économie, des effets d'un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Dans une économie constituée d'un gouvernement, d'une firme représentative et d'un ménage représentatif, j'élabore un théorème de l'équivalence ricardienne avec l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Plus particulièrement, j'établis que si les marchés financiers sont parfaits, un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises qui ne change pas la valeur présente de l'impôt total auquel l'entreprise est assujettie sur toute sa durée de vie n'a aucun effet réel sur l'économie si l'état utilise un impôt forfaitaire. Ensuite, en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits, je montre qu'une une baisse temporaire de l'impôt forfaitaire sur le profit des entreprises stimule l'investissement parce qu'il réduit temporairement le coût marginal de l'investissement. Enfin, mes résultats indiquent que si l'impôt est proportionnel au profit des entreprises, l'anticipation de taxes élevées dans le futur réduit le rendement espéré de l'investissement et atténue la stimulation de l'investissement engendrée par la réduction d'impôt. Le deuxième chapitre est écrit en collaboration avec Rui Castro. Dans cet article, nous avons quantifié les effets sur les décisions individuelles d'investis-sement et de production des entreprises ainsi que sur les agrégats macroéconomiques, d'une baisse temporaire de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Dans un modèle où les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs de productivité idiosyncratiques, nous avons d'abord établi que le rationnement de crédit affecte plus les petites (jeunes) entreprises que les grandes entreprises. Pour des entreprises de même taille, les entreprises les plus productives sont celles qui souffrent le plus du manque de liquidité résultant des imperfections du marché financier. Ensuite, nous montré que pour une baisse de 1 dollar du revenu de l'impôt, l'investissement et la production augmentent respectivement de 26 et 3,5 centimes. L'effet cumulatif indique une augmentation de l'investissement et de la production agrégés respectivement de 4,6 et 7,2 centimes. Au niveau individuel, nos résultats indiquent que la politique stimule l'investissement des petites entreprises, initialement en manque de liquidité, alors qu'elle réduit l'investissement des grandes entreprises, initialement non contraintes. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la réforme de l'imposition des revenus d'entreprise proposée par le Trésor américain en 1992. La proposition de réforme recommande l'élimination des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital et l'imposition d'une seule taxe sur le revenu des entreprises. Pour ce faire, j'ai eu recours à un modèle dynamique stochastique d'équilibre général avec marchés financiers imparfaits dans lequel les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs idiosyncratiques de productivité. Les résultats indiquent que l'abolition des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital réduisent les distorsions dans les choix d'investissement des entreprises, stimule l'investissement et entraîne une meilleure allocation du capital. Mais pour être financièrement soutenable, la réforme nécessite un relèvement du taux de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises de 34\% à 42\%. Cette hausse du taux d'imposition décourage l'accumulation du capital. En somme, la réforme engendre une baisse de l'accumulation du capital et de la production respectivement de 8\% et 1\%. Néanmoins, elle améliore l'allocation du capital de 20\%, engendrant des gains de productivité de 1.41\% et une modeste augmentation du bien être des consommateurs.

How much and what kind of entrepreneurial orientation is needed for family business continuity?

The present paper examines to what degree the Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) construct is prolific in explaining business activity of firms with a transgenerational outlook. In particular, we are challenging the fundamental claim by entrepreneurship scholars that the more entrepreneurial a firm is, hence the higher it scores in the five EO dimensions, the more successful it should be in the long-run.

Tim Biakabutuka UM Football, coach, 1995 vs Ohio St.

[Biakabutuka breaking tackle on long run]

Xingu, and other stories,

Xingu.--Coming home.--Autres temps ...--Kerfol.--The long run.--The triumph of night.--The choice.--Bunner sisters.

Lowell Perry, UM Football, 1950?

[annotation on verso: [Perry on his way for a TD after a long run."]

Essays on the Issue of Piracy in the Market of Information Goods

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Essays on Economic Impacts of Coral Bleaching: Evidence from Indonesia

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Aquaculture's Potential Impacts on Conservation of Wild Stocks and Biodiversity

Anderson theorizes that development of the aquaculture of a fish species (also captured in an open-access fishery) favours the conservation of its wild stocks, if competitive market conditions prevail. However, his theory is subject to significant limitations. While this is less so within his model, it is particularly so in an extended one outlined here. These other models allow for the possibility that aquaculture development can impact negatively on wild stocks thereby shifting the supply curve of the capture fishery, or raise the demand for the fish species subject both to aquaculture and capture. Such development can threaten wild fish stocks and their biodiversity. While aquaculture development could in principle have no impact on the biodiversity of wild stocks or even raise aquatic biodiversity overall, its impact in the long-term probably will be one of reducing aquatic diversity both in the wild and overall. The development of aquaculture does not automatically ensure long-term sustainability of fish and other aquatic supplies.

Outbound Travel Depends on Business Returns: Australian Evidence

In an earlier note, Collins and Tisdell (2002b) explored the possibility of a long-run relationship between Australian business returns and international business travel. Using annual data they found that such a relationship exists. The purpose of this study is to further examine this relationship using quarterly data for the time frame 1974:1 to 1999:4. In addition, previous studies on international business travel have offered some but not strong evidence for the existence of a positive relationship between the level of international business travel and real GDP of the origin country. This study suggests that the aggregate return on business investments is a better predictor of international business travel than GDP. The Engle-Granger and Johansen's maximum-likelihood cointegration procedures are used to show a long-term relationship exists between Australian outbound business travel and Australian business returns, but not with Real Australian GDP. Reasons for this relationship are discussed.

Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Equity market linkage and multinational trade accords: The case of NAFTA

This paper examines the impact of multinational trade accords on the degree of stock market linkage using NAFTA as a case study. Besides liberalizing trade among the U.S., Canada and Mexico, NAFTA has also sought to strengthen linkage among stock markets of these countries. If successful, this could lessen the appeal of asset diversification across the North American region and promote a higher degree of market efficiency. We assess the possible impact of NAFTA on market linkage using cross-correlations, multivariate price cointegrating systems, speed of convergence, and generalized variance decompositions of unexpected stock returns. The evidence proves robust and consistently indicates intensified equity market linkage since the NAFTA accord. The results also suggest that interdependent goods markets in the region are a primary reason behind the stronger equity market linkage observed in the post-NAFTA period. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Empirical investigation of investment behaviour in Australia's pastoral region

Optimal intertemporal investment behaviour of Australian pastoralists is modelled using panel data for the period 1979-1993. Results indicate that quasi-fixity of inputs of labour, capital, sheep numbers and cattle numbers is characteristic of production in the pastoral region. It takes about two years for labour, four years for capital and a little over two years for both sheep numbers and cattle numbers to adjust towards long-run optimal levels. Results also indicate that, after accounting for adjustment costs, own-price product supply and input demand responses are inelastic in both the short and long run.