Forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty using VAR models with short- and long-term economic restrictions: a Monte-Carlo study

Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and Monte-Carlo simulation methods we investigate the potential gains for forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty of two commonly used restrictions arising from economic relationships. The Örst reduces parameter space by imposing long-term restrictions on the behavior of economic variables as discussed by the literature on cointegration, and the second reduces parameter space by imposing short-term restrictions as discussed by the literature on serial-correlation common features (SCCF). Our simulations cover three important issues on model building, estimation, and forecasting. First, we examine the performance of standard and modiÖed information criteria in choosing lag length for cointegrated VARs with SCCF restrictions. Second, we provide a comparison of forecasting accuracy of Ötted VARs when only cointegration restrictions are imposed and when cointegration and SCCF restrictions are jointly imposed. Third, we propose a new estimation algorithm where short- and long-term restrictions interact to estimate the cointegrating and the cofeature spaces respectively. We have three basic results. First, ignoring SCCF restrictions has a high cost in terms of model selection, because standard information criteria chooses too frequently inconsistent models, with too small a lag length. Criteria selecting lag and rank simultaneously have a superior performance in this case. Second, this translates into a superior forecasting performance of the restricted VECM over the VECM, with important improvements in forecasting accuracy ñreaching more than 100% in extreme cases. Third, the new algorithm proposed here fares very well in terms of parameter estimation, even when we consider the estimation of long-term parameters, opening up the discussion of joint estimation of short- and long-term parameters in VAR models.

The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson-generalized gamma regression model with long-term survivors

In this paper, we proposed a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest following the Conway-Maxwell distribution and the time for the event to follow the generalized gamma distribution. This distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, bathtub and unimodal-shaped including some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Some appropriate matrices are derived in order to evaluate local influence on the estimates of the parameters by considering different perturbations, and some global influence measurements are also investigated. Finally, data set from the medical area is analysed.

Maxillary osteosarcoma in a young patient undergoing postorthodontic treatment follow-up: The importance of ongoing oral examinations

Osteosarcoma is a common primary malignant tumor in long bones; it generally occurs in young adults. It is considered infrequent in the head and neck regions, where it is usually associated with poor outcomes and rates of survival. From a histopathologic point of view, osteosarcomas are commonly classified as osteoblastic, chondroblastic, or fibroblastic, although several unusual microscopic subtypes have also been reported. The purpose of this article was to present a case report of a maxillary chondroblastic osteosarcoma involving the maxillary sinus and the maxilla of a young woman who was diagnosed during early postorthodontic treatment follow-up. Treatment, prosthetic rehabilitation, and follow-up details are provided. Most importantly, this patient shows the importance of complete and systematic oral examinations during any routine dental treatment. (Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop 2011;139:845-8)

Hardness of heat-polymerized acrylic resins after disinfection and long-term water immersion

Statement of the problem. In selecting a disinfectant for dental prostheses, compatibility between the disinfectant and the type of denture base material must be considered to avoid adverse effects on the hardness of the acrylic resin.Purpose. This study investigated the hardness of 2 denture base resins after disinfection and long-term water immersion.Material and methods. Thirty-two disk-shaped specimens (13 mm in diameter and 8 mm thick) were fabricated from each resin (Lucitone 550 and QC-20), polished, stored in water at 37degreesC for 48 hours, and submitted to hardness tests (Vickers hardness number [VHN]) before disinfection. Disinfection methods included scrubbing with 4% chlorhexidine gluconate for 1 minute, immersion for 10 minutes in I of the tested disinfectant Solutions (n=8) (3.78% sodium perborate, 4% chlorhexidine gluconate, or 1% sodium hypochorite), and immersion in water for 3 minutes. The disinfection procedures were repeated 4 times, and 12 hardness measurements were made on each specimen. Control specimens (not disinfected) were stored in water for 56 minutes. Hardness tests (VHN) were also performed after 15, 30, 60, 90, and 120 days of storage in water. Statistical analyses of data were conducted with a repeated measures 3-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey post-hoc test (alpha=.05).Results. Mean values +/- SD for Lucitone 550 (16.52 +/- 0.94 VHN) and QC-20 (9.61 +/- 0.62 VHN) demonstrated a significant (P<.05) decrease in hardness after disinfection, regardless of material and disinfectant solutions used (Lucitone 550: 15.25 +/- 0.74; QC-20: 8.09 +/- 0.39). However, this effect was reversed after 15 days of storage in water. Both materials exhibited a continuous increase (P<.05) in hardness values for up to 60 days of water storage, after which no significant change was observed.Conclusion. Within the limitations of this in vitro study, QC-20 and Lucitone 550 specimens exhibited significantly lower hardness values after disinfection regardless of the disinfectant solution used.

Long-term accumulation and microdistribution of uranium in the bone and marrow of beagle dog

The accumulation and microdistribution of uranium in the bone and marrow of Beagle dogs were determined by both neutron activation and neutron-fission analysis. The experiment started immediately after the weaning period, lasting till maturity. Two animal groups were fed daily with uranyl nitrate at concentrations of 20 and 100 mug(-1) food. of the two measuring techniques, uranium accumulated along the marrow as much as in the bone, contrary to the results obtained with single, acute doses. The role played by this finding for the evaluation of radiobiological long-term risks is discussed. It was demonstrated, by means of a biokinetical approach, that the long-term accumulation of uranium in bone and marrow could be described by a piling up of single dose daily incorporation.

Cauda equina syndrome after spinal tetracaine: Electromyographic evaluation-20 years follow-up

CAUDA equina syndrome (CES) has long been recognized as a rare complication of spinal anesthesia.(1) CES has been described after administration of spinal anesthetics with lidocaine(2) and bupivacaine.(3) In 1991,(4) CES was reported after continuous spinal anesthesia with 1% tetracaine. In 1980, at our university hospital, six adult female patients underwent perineal gynecologic surgery using a spinal anesthetic of 2 ml tetracaine, 1.2%, in 10% glucose. The concentration of the injected tetracaine was unknown by the anesthetists. In all cases, lumbar puncture was performed at the L3-L4 interspace with a disposable spinal needle while the patients were in the sitting position. CES was first diagnosed 72 h or later postoperatively; previous diagnosis was not possible because patients had an indwelling urethral catheter. The diagnosis of CES was confirmed in all patients. During the past year, after institutional approval and informed consent, clinical, magnetic resonance imaging, electromyographic examinations, and conduction studies were performed in three of the above patients. Examinations were not possible on the other three patients because one had recently died, another could not be located, and the third refused to participate. T1 and T2 magnetic resonance image readings were obtained with Gadolinium contrast from a 0.5 Tesla General Electric apparatus (General Electric, Tokyo, Japan). Bilateral sensory and motor conduction studies of the sciatic nerve branches were obtained using a two-channel Nihon-Kohden Neuropack 2 (Nihom-Kohden Corporation, Tokyo, Japan). Electromyography was performed in accordance with conventional techniques.(5,6)

Metabolic adaptations induced by long-term fasting in quails

After up to 21 days without food, adult male quails (Coturnix coturnix japonica) lost about 45% of the initial body weight (100-150 g). As in naturally fast-adapted and larger birds, three phases were identified during prolonged fasting in quails. Phase I lasted 2-3 days and was characterized by a rapid decrease in the rate of body weight loss and high fat mobilization. Phase II was longer and characterized by a slow and steady decline in the rates of body weight loss and of nitrogen excretion. The third (critical) period was marked by an abrupt increase in the rates of body weight loss and of nitrogen excretion. Despite their small size, the duration of phase II in quails was relatively long, a clear advantage for the study of the relationships between the several metabolic events that occur during this crucial adaptative period. Also, the beginning of phase III could be precisely determined. Changes in blood glucose, plasma FFA and triacylglycerols levels, as well as in liver and carcass lipid content were similar to those found in other species of birds. Therefore, quails seem to be a suitable model to investigate the biochemical mechanisms involved in the metabolic adjustments to prolonged food deprivation in non fasting-adapted birds. © 1995.

Long-term creatine supplementation improves the aerobic capacity of horses

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of long-term oral supplementation of creatine on the physiological responses to aerobic training. Twelve purebred Arabian horses were submitted to aerobic training for 90 days, with and without creatine supplementation which consisted of the daily administration of 75g of creatine monohydrate mixed into the ration for 90 days of training. Physical conditioning was conducted on a high performance treadmill and training intensity was stipulated by calculating the V 4 (velocity at which blood lactate reaches 4mmol L -1) determined monthly for each animal. The individual intensity of physical force at 80% of aerobic threshold was established. An incremental exercise test was used to set the individual V4. After a warm up period of 4 min at 4m s -1), the speed was increased at 2min intervals to 6, 8 and 10m s -1). The blood samples were collected 15s before the end of each step to determine the concentration of lactate, packed cell volume, hemoglobin and red cell values. The results demonstrated a significant increase (P<0.05) in V4 in the groups that received creatine supplementation for 60 days or more when compared to the animals without creatine supplememntation. The other hematological variables were similar to all groups. The results showed that the prolonged creatine supplementation may have a beneficial al effect on the equine athletic performance.

Brazilian network for the surveillance of maternal potentially life threatening morbidity and maternal near-miss and a multidimensional evaluation of their long term consequences

Background. It has been suggested that the study of women who survive life-threatening complications related to pregnancy (maternal near-miss cases) may represent a practical alternative to surveillance of maternal morbidity/mortality since the number of cases is higher and the woman herself is able to provide information on the difficulties she faced and the long-term repercussions of the event. These repercussions, which may include sexual dysfunction, postpartum depression and posttraumatic stress disorder, may persist for prolonged periods of time, affecting women's quality of life and resulting in adverse effects to them and their babies. Objective. The aims of the present study are to create a nationwide network of scientific cooperation to carry out surveillance and estimate the frequency of maternal near-miss cases, to perform a multicenter investigation into the quality of care for women with severe complications of pregnancy, and to carry out a multidimensional evaluation of these women up to six months. Methods/Design. This project has two components: a multicenter, cross-sectional study to be implemented in 27 referral obstetric units in different geographical regions of Brazil, and a concurrent cohort study of multidimensional analysis. Over 12 months, investigators will perform prospective surveillance to identify all maternal complications. The population of the cross-sectional component will consist of all women surviving potentially life-threatening conditions (severe maternal complications) or life-threatening conditions (the maternal near miss criteria) and maternal deaths according to the new WHO definition and criteria. Data analysis will be performed in case subgroups according to the moment of occurrence and determining cause. Frequencies of near-miss and other severe maternal morbidity and the association between organ dysfunction and maternal death will be estimated. A proportion of cases identified in the cross-sectional study will comprise the cohort of women for the multidimensional analysis. Various aspects of the lives of women surviving severe maternal complications will be evaluated 3 and 6 months after the event and compared to a group of women who suffered no severe complications in pregnancy. Previously validated questionnaires will be used in the interviews to assess reproductive function, posttraumatic stress, functional capacity, quality of life, sexual function, postpartum depression and infant development. © 2009 Cecatti et al.

Building long term strategies and public-private alliances for export development: the Finnish case

Includes Bibliography

Inclusion of the European Nordic model in the debate concerning social protection reform: the long-term development of Nordic welfare systems (1890-2005) and their transferability to Latin America in the twenty-first century

Includes bibliography

Long-term creatine supplementation improves muscular performance during resistance training in older women

This study examined the effects of long-term creatine supplementation combined with resistance training (RT) on the one-repetition maximum (1RM) strength, motor functional performance (e.g., 30-s chair stand, arm curl, and getting up from lying on the floor tests) and body composition (e.g., fat-free mass, muscle mass, and % body fat using DEXA scans) in older women. Eighteen healthy women (64.9 ± 5.0 years) were randomly assigned in a double-blind fashion to either a creatine (CR, N = 9) or placebo (PL, N = 9) group. Both groups underwent a 12-week RT program (3 days week-1), consuming an equivalent amount of either creatine (5.0 g day-1) or placebo (maltodextrin). After 12 week, the CR group experienced a greater (P < 0.05) increase (Δ%) in training volume (+164.2), and 1RM bench press (+5.1), knee extension (+3.9) and biceps curl (+8.8) performance than the PL group. Furthermore, CR group gained significantly more fat-free mass (+3.2) and muscle mass (+2.8) and were more efficient in performing submaximal-strength functional tests than the PL group. No changes (P > 0.05) in body mass or % body fat were observed from pre- to post-test in either group. These results indicate that long-term creatine supplementation combined with RT improves the ability to perform submaximal-strength functional tasks and promotes a greater increase in maximal strength, fat-free mass and muscle mass in older women. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

A 12-month follow-up of hypopigmentation after laser hair removal

Introduction: Laser hair removal is becoming an increasingly popular alternative to traditional methods such as shaving, waxing, among other methods. Semiconductor diode lasers are considered the most efficient light sources available and are especially well suited for clinical applications including hair reduction. The effectiveness of laser hair reduction depends on many variables, including the skin type of the patient. Material and Methods: A patient with Fitzpatrick Skin Type IV was submitted to laser hair removal of the arms with a high-power diode laser system with long pulses with a wavelength of 800 nm, a fluence of 40 J/cm2 and a pulse width of 20 ms. A 12-month follow-up assessment was performed and included photography and questionnaire. Results: Hypopigmentation was observed after a single laser hair removal section. After 6 months with the area totally covered, a gradual suntan with a sun screen lotion with an SPF of 15 was prescribed by the dermatologist. After 12 months of the initial treatment, a complete recovery of the hypopigmentation was achieved. Conclusion: Although a safe procedure, lasers for hair removal may be associated with adverse side effects including undesired pigment alterations. Before starting a laser hair removal treatment, patients seeking the eradication of hair should be informed that temporary, and possibly permanent, pigmentary changes may occur. © 2013 Informa UK, Ltd.

Randomized controlled clinical trial evaluating connective tissue graft plus resin-modified glass ionomer restoration for the treatment of gingival recession associated with non-carious cervical lesion: 2-year follow-up

Background: The aim of this clinical study is to evaluate the 2-year term results of gingival recession (GR) associated with non-carious cervical lesions (NCCLs) treated by connective tissue graft (CTG) alone or in combination with a resin-modified glass ionomer restoration (CTG+R). Methods: Thirty-six patients with Miller Class I buccal GR associated with NCCLs completed the follow-up. The defects were randomly assigned to receive either CTG or CTG+R. Bleeding on probing (BOP), probing depth (PD), relative GR, clinical attachment level (CAL), and cervical lesion height coverage were measured at baseline, 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years after treatment. Results: Both groups showed statistically significant gains in CAL and soft-tissue coverage. The differences between groups were not statistically significant in BOP, PD, relative GR, or CAL after 2 years. Cervical lesion height coverage was 79.31% ± 18.51% for CTG and 71.95% ± 13.25% for CTG+R (P >0.05). Estimated root coverage was 91.56% ± 11.74% for CTG and 93.29% ± 7.97% for CTG+R (P ≥0.05). Conclusions: Within the limits of the present study, it can be concluded that both procedures provide comparable soft tissue coverage after 2 years of follow-up.

Using Conservative Condylectomy for Management of a Large Osteochondroma of the Mandibular Condyle With 6-Year Follow- up

Osteochondroma is a hamartomatous proliferation of cartilaginous tissue, which is the most common benign tumor of the long bones, but is relatively rare in the maxillofacial region. Most cases of mandibular condylar osteochondroma manifest with facial asymmetry or malocclusion with limited temporomandibular joint movements. Several approaches for management of this lesion have been proposed, as conservative condylectomy technique. This procedure has been suggested a valid approach to minimize facial asymmetry, contributing to the recovery of occlusion associated with no local tumor recurrence, and without condylar reconstruction procedure. Therefore, this article aims to describe a clinical report of a true osteochondroma of the mandibular condyle in a 35-year-old patient who was successfully treated using conservative condylectomy procedure.