Long-term variations in the magnetic field of the Sun and possible implications for terrestrial climate

Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" or "open" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation is reflected in studies of the heliospheric field using isotopes deposited in ice sheets and meteorites by the action of galactic comic rays. The variation has also been reproduced using a model that demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. The cosmic ray flux at energies > 3 GeV is found to have decayed by about 15% during the 20(th) century (and by about 4% at > 13 GeV). We show that the changes in the open flux do reflect changes in the photospheric and sub-surface field which offers an explanation of why open flux appears to be a good proxy for solar irradiance extrapolation. Correlations between F-s, solar cycle length, L, and 11-year smoothed sunspot number, R-11, explain why the various irradiance reconstructions for the last 150 years are similar in form. Possible implications of the inferred changes in cosmic ray flux and irradiance for global temperatures on Earth are discussed.

The day the solar wind nearly died

On 11 May 1999, the density of the solar wind dropped almost to zero. Space scientists are now giving their first reports of this rare opportunity to study the complex relationship between the Sun and Earth.

Dawn-dusk asymmetry in particles of solar wind origin within the magnetosphere

Solar wind/magnetosheath plasma in the magnetosphere can be identified using a component that has a higher charge state, lower density and, at least soon after their entry into the magnetosphere, lower energy than plasma from a terrestrial source. We survey here observations taken over 3 years of He2+ ions made by the Magnetospheric Ion Composition Sensor (MICS) of the Charge and Mass Mgnetospheric Ion Composition Experiment (CAMMICE) instrument aboard POLAR. The occurrence probability of these solar wind ions is then plotted as a function of Magnetic Local Time (MLT) and invariant latitude (3) for various energy ranges. For all energies observed by MICS (1.8–21.4 keV) and all solar wind conditions, the occurrence probabilities peaked around the cusp region and along the dawn flank. The solar wind conditions were filtered to see if this dawnward asymmetry is controlled by the Svalgaard-Mansurov effect (and so depends on the BY component of the interplanetary magnetic field, IMF) or by Fermi acceleration of He2+ at the bow shock (and so depends on the IMF ratio BX/BY ). It is shown that the asymmetry remained persistently on the dawn flank, suggesting it was not due to effects associated with direct entry into the magnetosphere. This asymmetry, with enhanced fluxes on the dawn flank, persisted for lower energy ions (below a “cross-over” energy of about 23 keV) but reversed sense to give higher fluxes on the dusk flank at higher energies. This can be explained by the competing effects of gradient/curvature drifts and the convection electric field on ions that are convecting sunward on re-closed field lines. The lower-energy He2+ ions E × B drift dawnwards as they move earthward, whereas the higher energy ions curvature/gradient drift towards dusk. The convection electric field in the tail is weaker for northward IMF. Ions then need less energy to drift to the dusk flank, so that the cross-over energy, at which the asymmetry changes sense, is reduced.

The Sun-Earth connection in time scales from years to decades and centuries

The Sun-Earth connection is studied using long-term measurements from the Sun and from the Earth. The auroral activity is shown to correlate to high accuracy with the smoothed sunspot numbers. Similarly, both geomagnetic activity and global surface temperature anomaly can be linked to cyclic changes in the solar activity. The interlinked variations in the solar magnetic activity and in the solar irradiance cause effects that can be observed both in the Earth's biosphere and in the electromagnetic environment. The long-term data sets suggest that the increase in geomagnetic activity and surface temperatures are related (at least partially) to longer-term solar variations, which probably include an increasing trend superposed with a cyclic behavior with a period of about 90 years.

Solar wind control of magnetospheric energy content: substorm quenching and multiple onsets

In this paper we report coordinated multispacecraft and ground-based observations of a double substorm onset close to Scandinavia on November 17, 1996. The Wind and the Geotail spacecraft, which were located in the solar wind and the subsolar magnetosheath, respectively, recorded two periods of southward directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). These periods were separated by a short northward IMF excursion associated with a solar wind pressure pulse, which compressed the magnetosphere to such a degree that Geotail for a short period was located outside the bow shock. The first period of southward IMF initiated a substorm growth. phase, which was clearly detected by an array of ground-based instrumentation and by Interball in the northern tail lobe. A first substorm onset occurred in close relation to the solar wind pressure pulse impinging on the magnetopause and almost simultaneously with the northward turning of the IMF. However, this substorm did not fully develop. In clear association with the expansion of the magnetosphere at the end of the pressure pulse, the auroral expansion was stopped, and the northern sky cleared. We will present evidence that the change in the solar wind dynamic pressure actively quenched the energy available for any further substorm expansion. Directly after this period, the magnetometer network detected signatures of a renewed substorm growth phase, which was initiated by the second southward turning of the IMF and which finally lead to a second, and this time complete, substorm intensification. We have used our multipoint observations in order to understand the solar wind control of the substorm onset and substorm quenching. The relative timings between the observations on the various satellites and on the ground were used to infer a possible causal relationship between the solar wind pressure variations and consequent substorm development. Furthermore, using a relatively simple algorithm to model the tail lobe field and the total tail flux, we show that there indeed exists a close relationship between the relaxation of a solar wind pressure pulse, the reduction of the tail lobe field, and the quenching of the initial substorm.

ESR and EISCAT observations of the response of the cusp and cleft to IMF orientation changes

We report observations of the cusp/cleft ionosphere made on December 16th 1998 by the EISCAT (European incoherent scatter) VHF radar at Tromso and the EISCAT Svalbard radar (ESR). We compare them with observations of the dayside auroral luminosity, as seen by meridian scanning photometers at Ny Alesund and of HF radar backscatter, as observed by the CUTLASS radar. We study the response to an interval of about one hour when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), monitored by the WIND and ACE spacecraft, was southward. The cusp/cleft aurora is shown to correspond to a spatially extended region of elevated electron temperatures in the VHF radar data. Initial conditions were characterised by a northward-directed IMF and cusp/cleft aurora poleward of the ESR. A strong southward turning then occurred, causing an equatorward motion of the cusp/cleft aurora. Within the equatorward expanding, southward-IMF cusp/cleft, the ESR observed structured and elevated plasma densities and ion and electron temperatures. Cleft ion fountain upflows were seen in association with elevated ion temperatures and rapid eastward convection, consistent with the magnetic curvature force on newly opened held lines for the observed negative IMF B-y. Subsequently, the ESR beam remained immediately poleward of the main cusp/cleft and a sequence of poleward-moving auroral transients passed over it. After the last of these, the ESR was in the polar cap and the radar observations were characterised by extremely low ionospheric densities and downward field-aligned flows. The IMF then turned northward again and the auroral oval contracted such that the ESR moved back into the cusp/cleft region. For the poleward-retreating northward-IMF cusp/cleft, the convection flows were slower, upflows were weaker and the electron density and temperature enhancements were less structured. Following the northward turning, the bands of high electron temperature and cusp/cleft aurora bifurcated, consistent with both subsolar and lobe reconnection taking place simultaneously. The present paper describes the large-scale behaviour of the ionosphere during this interval, as observed by a powerful combination of instruments. Two companion papers, by Lockwood et al. (2000) and Thorolfsson et al. (2000), both in this issue, describe the detailed behaviour of the poleward-moving transients observed during the interval of southward B-z, and explain their morphology in the context of previous theoretical work.

Simultaneous optical and radar signatures of poleward-moving auroral forms

Dayside poleward moving auroral forms (PMAFs) were detected between 06:30 and 07:00 UT on December 16, 1998, by the meridian scanning photometer and the all-sky camera at Ny Alesund, Svalbard. Simultaneous SuperDARN HF radar measurements permitted the study of the associated ionospheric velocity pattern. A good general agreement is observed between the location and movement of velocity enhancements (flow channels) and the PMAFs. Clear signatures of equatorward flow were detected in the vicinity of PMAFs. This flow is believed to be the signature of a return flow outside the reconnected Aux tube, as predicted by the Southwood model. The simulated signatures of this model reproduce globally the measured signatures, and differences with the experimental data can be explained by the simplifications of the model. Proposed schemes of the flow modification due to the presence of several flow channels and the modification of cusp and region 1 field-aligned currents at the time of sporadic reconnection events are shown to fit well with the observations.

Plasma structure within poleward-moving cusp/cleft auroral transients: EISCAT Svalbard radar observations and an explanation in terms of large local time extent of events

We report high-resolution observations of the southward-IMF cusp/cleft ionosphere made on December 16th 1998 by the EISCAT (European incoherent scatter) Svalbard radar (ESR), and compare them with observations of dayside auroral luminosity, as seen at a wavelength of 630 nm by a meridian scanning photometer at Ny Alesund, and of plasma flows, as seen by the CUTLASS (co-operative UK twin location auroral sounding system) Finland HF radar. The optical data reveal a series of poleward-moving transient red-line (630 nm) enhancements, events that have been associated with bursts in the rate of magnetopause reconnection generating new open flux. The combined observations at this time have strong similarities to predictions of the effects of soft electron precipitation modulated by pulsed reconnection, as made by Davis and Lockwood (1996); however, the effects of rapid zonal flow in the ionosphere, caused by the magnetic curvature force on the newly opened field lines, are found to be a significant additional factor. In particular, it is shown how enhanced plasma loss rates induced by the rapid convection can explain two outstanding anomalies of the 630 nm transients, namely how minima in luminosity form between the poleward-moving events and how events can re-brighten as they move poleward. The observations show how cusp/cleft aurora and transient poleward-moving auroral forms appear in the ESR data and the conditions which cause enhanced 630 nm emission in the transients: they are an important first step in enabling the ESR to identify these features away from the winter solstice when supporting auroral observations are not available.

Ionospheric measurements of relative coronal brightness during the total solar eclipses of 11 August, 1999 and 9 July, 1945

Swept-frequency (1-10 MHz) ionosonde measurements were made at Helston, Cornwall (50 degrees 06'N, 5 degrees 18'W) during the total solar eclipse on August 11, 1999. Soundings were made every three minutes. We present a method for estimating the percentage of the ionising solar radiation which remains unobscured at any time during the eclipse by comparing the variation of the ionospheric E-layer with the behaviour of the layer during a control day. Application to the ionosonde date for II August, 1999, shows that the flux of solar ionising radiation fell to a minimum of 25 +/- 2% of the value before and after the eclipse. For comparison, the same technique was also applied to measurements made during the total solar eclipse of 9 July, 1945, at Sormjole (63 degrees 68'N, 20 degrees 20'E) and yielded a corresponding minimum of 16 +/- 2%. Therefore the method can detect variations in the fraction of solar emissions that originate from the unobscured corona and chromosphere. We discuss the differences between these two eclipses in terms of the nature of the eclipse, short-term fluctuations, the sunspot cycle and the recently-discovered long-term change in the coronal magnetic field.

A multipoint study of a substorm occurring on 7 December, 1992, and its theoretical implications

On 7 December 1992, a moderate substorm was observed by a variety of satellites and ground-based instruments. Ionospheric flows were monitored near dusk by the Goose Bay HF radar and near midnight by the EISCAT radar. The observed flows are compared here with magnetometer observations by the IMAGE array in Scandinavia and the two Greenland chains, the auroral distribution observed by Freja and the substorm cycle observations by the SABRE radar, the SAMNET magnetometer array and LANL geosynchronous satellites. Data from Galileo Earth-encounter II are used to estimate the IMF B-z component. The data presented show that the substorm onset electrojet at midnight was confined to closed field lines equatorward of the preexisting convection reversal boundaries observed in the dusk and midnight regions. No evidence of substantial closure of open flux was detected following this substorm onset. Indeed the convection reversal boundary on the duskside continued to expand equatorward after onset due to the continued presence of strong southward IMF, such that growth and expansion phase features were simultaneously present. Clear indications of closure of open flux were not observed until a subsequent substorm intensification 25 min after the initial onset. After this time, the substorm auroral bulge in the nightside hours propagated well poleward of the pre-existing convection reversal boundary, and strong flow perturbations were observed by the Goose Bay radar, indicative of flows driven by reconnection in the tail.

Solar causes of the long-term increase in geomagnetic activity

We analyze the causes of the century-long increase in geomagnetic activity, quantified by annual means of the aa index, using observations of interplanetary space, galactic cosmic rays, the ionosphere, and the auroral electrojet, made during the last three solar cycles. The effects of changes in ionospheric conductivity, the Earth's dipole tilt, and magnetic moment are shown to be small; only changes in near-Earth interplanetary space make a significant contribution to the long-term increase in activity. We study the effects of the interplanetary medium by applying dimensional analysis to generate the optimum solar wind-magnetosphere energy coupling function, having an unprecedentedly high correlation coefficient of 0.97. Analysis of the terms of the coupling function shows that the largest contributions to the drift in activity over solar cycles 20-22 originate from rises in the average interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, solar wind concentration, and speed; average IMF orientation has grown somewhat less propitious for causing geomagnetic activity. The combination of these factors explains almost all of the 39% rise in aa observed over the last three solar cycles. Whereas the IMF strength varies approximately in phase with sunspot numbers, neither its orientation nor the solar wind density shows any coherent solar cycle variation. The solar wind speed peaks strongly in the declining phase of even-numbered cycles and can be identified as the chief cause of the phase shift between the sunspot numbers and the aa index. The rise in the IMF magnitude, the largest single contributor to the drift in geomagnetic activity, is shown to be caused by a rise in the solar coronal magnetic field, consistent with a rise in the coronal source field, modeled from photospheric observations, and an observed decay in cosmic ray fluxes.

Coherent EISCAT Svalbard Radar spectra from the dayside cusp/cleft and their implications for transient field-aligned currents

Naturally enhanced incoherent scatter spectra from the vicinity of the dayside cusp/cleft, interpreted as being due to plasma turbulence driven by short bursts of intense field-aligned current, are compared with high-resolution narrow-angle auroral images and meridian scanning photometer data. Enhanced spectra have been observed on many occasions in association with nightside aurora, but there has been only one report of such spectra seen in the cusp/cleft region. Narrow-angle images show considerable change in the aurora on timescales shorter than the 10-s radar integration period, which could explain spectra observed with both ion lines simultaneously enhanced. Enhanced radar spectra are generally seen inside or beside regions of 630-nm auroral emission, indicative of sharp F region conductivity gradients, but there appears also to be a correlation with dynamic, small-scale auroral forms of order 100 m and less in width.