The development of a scale to measure concepts of schizophrenia: experience among Brazilian psychiatrists

INTRODUCTION: Among psychiatric disorders schizophrenia is often said to be the condition with the most disputed definition.The Bleulerian and Schneiderian approaches have given rise to diagnostic formulations that have varied with time and place. Controversies over the concept of schizophrenia were examined within European/North American settings in the early 1970s but little has since been reported on the views of psychiatrists in developing countries. In Brazil both concepts are referred to in the literature. A scale was developed to measure adherence to Bleulerian and Schneiderian concepts among psychiatrists working in S. Paulo. METHODOLOGY: A self-reported questionnaire comprising seventeen visual analogue-scale statements related to Bleulerian and Schneiderian definitions of Shizophrenia, plus sociodemographic and training characteristics, was distributed to a non-randomised sample of 150 psychiatrists. The two sub-scales were assessed by psychometric methods for internal consistency, sub-scale structure and test-retest reliability. Items selected according to internal consistency were examined by a two-factor model exploratory factor analysis. Intraclass correlation coefficients described the stability of the scale. RESULTS: Replies were received from 117 psychiatrists (mean age 36 (SD 7.9)), 74% of whom were made and 26% female. The Schneiderian scale showed better overall internal consistency than the Bleulerian scale. Intra-class correlation coefficients for test-retest comparisons were between 0.5 and 0.7 for Schneiderian items and 0.2 and 0.7 for Bleulerian items. There was no negative association between Bleulerian and Schneiderian scale scores, suggesting that respondents may hold both concepts. Place of training was significantly associated with the respondent's opinion; disagreement with a Bleulerian standpoint predominated for those trained at the University of S. Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: The less satisfactory reliability for the Bleulerian sub-scale limits confidence in the whole scale but on the other hand this questionnaire contributes to the understanding of the controversy over Bleulerian and Schneiderian models for conceptualisation of schizophrenia, the former requiring more inference and therefore being prone to unreliability.

Model risk in the pricing of exotic options

The growth experimented in recent years in both the variety and volume of structured products implies that banks and other financial institutions have become increasingly exposed to model risk. In this article we focus on the model risk associated with the local volatility (LV) model and with the Variance Gamma (VG) model. The results show that the LV model performs better than the VG model in terms of its ability to match the market prices of European options. Nevertheless, both models are subject to significant pricing errors when compared with the stochastic volatility framework.

Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

A implementação do Balanced Scorecard nos trabalhos de auditoria interna e o seu contributo para a estratégia organizacional - caso do sector público: autarquia local

Mestrado em Auditoria

Avaliação preliminar do potencial eólico com recurso a um modelo de Mesoescala

Mestrado em Engenharia Química. Ramo optimização energética na indústria química.

Análise da perceção da reforma do estado, ao nível da administração local, na Região Autónoma dos Açores

Dissertação de Mestrado em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais.

Paranoia in the General Population : a revised version of the General Paranoia Scale for Adults

Background: Paranoid ideation has been regarded as a cognitive and a social process used as a defence against perceived threats. According to this perspective, paranoid ideation can be understood as a process extending across the normal-pathological continuum. Methods: In order to refine the construct of paranoid ideation and to validate a measure of paranoia, 906 Portuguese participants from the general population and 91 patients were administered the General Paranoia Scale (GPS), and two conceptual models (one - and tridimensional) were compared through confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Results: Results from the CFA of the GPS confirmed a different model than the one-dimensional model proposed by Fenigstein and Vanable, which com-prised three dimensions (mistrust thoughts, persecutory ideas, and self-deprecation). This alternative model presented a better fit and increased sensitivity when compared with the one-dimensional model. Further data analysis of the scale revealed that the GPS is an adequate assessment tool for adults, with good psychometric characteristics and high internal consistency. Conclusion: The model proposed in the current work leads to further refinements and enrichment of the construct of paranoia in different populations, allowing the assessment of three dimensions of paranoia and the risk of clinical paranoia in a single measure for the general population.

Paranoia in the General Population : a revised version of the General Paranoia Scale for adolescents

The aim of the current study was to validate the General Paranoia Scale for Portuguese Adolescents population (GPS-A). This scale assesses the paranoid ideation in non-clinical population. Results from a confirmatory factor analysis of the scale on 1218 youths confirmed an alternative model to the one-dimensional model proposed by Fenigstein and Vanable (1992) comprising three different dimensions (Mistrust thoughts, persecutory ideas and depreciation). This alternative model presented a good fit: χ2 (162)= 727.200, p = .000; CFI = .925; RMSEA = .054, P(rmsea ≤0.05) = .000; PCFI = .788; AIC = 863.200. All items presented adequate factor loadings (λij ≥0.5) and individual reliability ((λij)2 ≥0.25). Further data analysis on the scale revealed that the GPS-A is an adequate assessment tool for adolescents, with good psychometric characteristics and high internal consistency.

Controlo preditivo distribuído para conforto térmico em edifícios

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Automação e Electrónica Industrial

Adding local priority-based dispatching mechanisms to P-NET networks: a fixed priority approach

In this paper we address the real-time capabilities of P-NET, which is a multi-master fieldbus standard based on a virtual token passing scheme. We show how P-NET’s medium access control (MAC) protocol is able to guarantee a bounded access time to message requests. We then propose a model for implementing fixed prioritybased dispatching mechanisms at each master’s application level. In this way, we diminish the impact of the first-come-first-served (FCFS) policy that P-NET uses at the data link layer. The proposed model rises several issues well known within the real-time systems community: message release jitter; pre-run-time schedulability analysis in non pre-emptive contexts; non-independence of tasks at the application level. We identify these issues in the proposed model and show how results available for priority-based task dispatching can be adapted to encompass priority-based message dispatching in P-NET networks.

Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

Climatology of the Iberia coastal low-level wind jet: weather research forecasting model high-resolution results

Coastal low-level jets (CLLJ) are a low-tropospheric wind feature driven by the pressure gradient produced by a sharp contrast between high temperatures over land and lower temperatures over the sea. This contrast between the cold ocean and the warm land in the summer is intensified by the impact of the coastal parallel winds on the ocean generating upwelling currents, sharpening the temperature gradient close to the coast and giving rise to strong baroclinic structures at the coast. During summertime, the Iberian Peninsula is often under the effect of the Azores High and of a thermal low pressure system inland, leading to a seasonal wind, in the west coast, called the Nortada (northerly wind). This study presents a regional climatology of the CLLJ off the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, based on a 9km resolution downscaling dataset, produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, forced by 19 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2007). The simulation results show that the jet hourly frequency of occurrence in the summer is above 30% and decreases to about 10% during spring and autumn. The monthly frequencies of occurrence can reach higher values, around 40% in summer months, and reveal large inter-annual variability in all three seasons. In the summer, at a daily base, the CLLJ is present in almost 70% of the days. The CLLJ wind direction is mostly from north-northeasterly and occurs more persistently in three areas where the interaction of the jet flow with local capes and headlands is more pronounced. The coastal jets in this area occur at heights between 300 and 400 m, and its speed has a mean around 15 m/s, reaching maximum speeds of 25 m/s.

Moisture recycling in the Iberian Peninsula from a regional climate simulation: spatiotemporal analysis and impact on the precipitation regime

The contribution of the evapotranspiration from a certain region to the precipitation over the same area is referred to as water recycling. In this paper, we explore the spatiotemporal links between the recycling mechanism and the Iberian rainfall regime. We use a 9 km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting simulation of 18 years (1990-2007) to compute local and regional recycling ratios over Iberia, at the monthly scale, through both an analytical and a numerical recycling model. In contrast to coastal areas, the interior of Iberia experiences a relative maximum of precipitation in spring, suggesting a prominent role of land-atmosphere interactions on the inland precipitation regime during this period of the year. Local recycling ratios are the highest in spring and early summer, coinciding with those areas where this spring peak of rainfall represents the absolute maximum in the annual cycle. This confirms that recycling processes are crucial to explain the Iberian spring precipitation, particularly over the eastern and northeastern sectors. Average monthly recycling values range from 0.04 in December to 0.14 in June according to the numerical model and from 0.03 in December to 0.07 in May according to the analytical procedure. Our analysis shows that the highest values of recycling are limited by the coexistence of two necessary mechanisms: (1) the availability of sufficient soil moisture and (2) the occurrence of appropriate synoptic configurations favoring the development of convective regimes. The analyzed surplus of rainfall in spring has a critical impact on agriculture over large semiarid regions of the interior of Iberia.

Brazilian version of the Quality of Care Scale: the perspective of people with disabilities

OBJECTIVE To analyze evidence of the validity and reliability of a Brazilian Portuguese version of the Quality of Care Scale from the perspective of people with physical and intellectual disabilities.METHODS There were 162 people with physical disabilities and 156 with intellectual disabilities from Porto Alegre and metropolitan region, who participated in the study in 2008. Classical psychometrics was used to independently analyze the two samples. Hypotheses for evidence of criterion validity (concurrent type) were tested with the Mann-Whitney test for non-normal distributions. Principal components analysis was used to explore factorial models. Evidence of reliability was calculated with Cronbach alpha for the scales and subscales. Test-retest reliability was analyzed for individuals with intellectual disabilities through intra-class correlation coefficient and the Willcoxon test.RESULTS The principal components in the group with physical disabilities replicated the original model presented as a solution to the international project data. Evidence of discriminant validity and test-retest reliability was found.CONCLUSIONS The transcultural factor model found within the international sample project seems appropriate for the samples investigated in this study, especially the physical disabilities group. Depression, pain, satisfaction with life and disability may play a mediating role in the evaluation of quality of care. Additional research is needed to add to evidence of the validity of the instruments.

A sensitivity study of the WRF model in wind simulation for an area of high wind energy

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in wind simulation was evaluated under different numerical and physical options for an area of Portugal, located in complex terrain and characterized by its significant wind energy resource. The grid nudging and integration time of the simulations were the tested numerical options. Since the goal is to simulate the near-surface wind, the physical parameterization schemes regarding the boundary layer were the ones under evaluation. Also, the influences of the local terrain complexity and simulation domain resolution on the model results were also studied. Data from three wind measuring stations located within the chosen area were compared with the model results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation Error and Bias. Wind speed histograms, occurrences and energy wind roses were also used for model evaluation. Globally, the model accurately reproduced the local wind regime, despite a significant underestimation of the wind speed. The wind direction is reasonably simulated by the model especially in wind regimes where there is a clear dominant sector, but in the presence of low wind speeds the characterization of the wind direction (observed and simulated) is very subjective and led to higher deviations between simulations and observations. Within the tested options, results show that the use of grid nudging in simulations that should not exceed an integration time of 2 days is the best numerical configuration, and the parameterization set composed by the physical schemes MM5–Yonsei University–Noah are the most suitable for this site. Results were poorer in sites with higher terrain complexity, mainly due to limitations of the terrain data supplied to the model. The increase of the simulation domain resolution alone is not enough to significantly improve the model performance. Results suggest that error minimization in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and choosing a suitable numerical and physical configuration for the region of interest together with the use of high resolution terrain data, if available.