Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January-April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models

We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate model simulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulation and European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations. Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHO-G and HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better asses documentary data in a quantitative way.

The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750

Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.

PM(10) remote sensing from geostationary SEVIRI and polar-orbiting MODIS sensors over the complex terrain of the European Alpine region

The subject of this study is to investigate the capability of spaceborne remote sensing data to predict ground concentrations of PM10 over the European Alpine region using satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from the geostationary Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) and the polar-orbiting MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The spatial and temporal resolutions of these aerosol products (10 km and 2 measurements per day for MODIS, ∼ 25 km and observation intervals of 15 min for SEVIRI) permit an evaluation of PM estimation from space at different spatial and temporal scales. Different empirical linear relationships between coincident AOD and PM10 observations are evaluated at 13 ground-based PM measurement sites, with the assumption that aerosols are vertically homogeneously distributed below the planetary Boundary Layer Height (BLH). The BLH and Relative Humidity (RH) variability are assessed, as well as their impact on the parameterization. The BLH has a strong influence on the correlation of daily and hourly time series, whilst RH effects are less clear and smaller in magnitude. Despite its lower spatial resolution and AOD accuracy, SEVIRI shows higher correlations than MODIS (rSEV∼ 0.7, rMOD∼ 0.6) with regard to daily averaged PM10. Advantages from MODIS arise only at hourly time scales in mountainous locations but lower correlations were found for both sensors at this time scale (r∼ 0.45). Moreover, the fraction of days in 2008 with at least one satellite observation was 27% for SEVIRI and 17% for MODIS. These results suggest that the frequency of observations plays an important role in PM monitoring, while higher spatial resolution does not generally improve the PM estimation. Ground-based Sun Photometer (SP) measurements are used to validate the satellite-based AOD in the study region and to discuss the impact of aerosols' micro-physical properties in the empirical models. A lower error limit of 30 to 60% in the PM10 assessment from space is estimated in the study area as a result of AOD uncertainties, variability of aerosols properties and the heterogeneity of ground measurement sites. It is concluded that SEVIRI has a similar capacity to map PM as sensors on board polar-orbiting platforms, with the advantage of a higher number of observations. However, the accuracy represents a serious limitation to the applicability of satellites for ground PM mapping, especially in mountainous areas.

Validation of a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth retrieval algorithm over Central Europe

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) carried on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Meteorological Operational Satellite (MetOp) polar orbiting satellites is the only instrument offering more than 25 years of satellite data to analyse aerosols on a daily basis. The present study assessed a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth τa retrieval over land for Europe. The algorithm might also be applied to other parts of the world with similar surface characteristics like Europe, only the aerosol properties would have to be adapted to a new region. The initial approach used a relationship between Sun photometer measurements from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the satellite data to post-process the retrieved τa. Herein a quasi-stand-alone procedure, which is more suitable for the pre-AERONET era, is presented. In addition, the estimation of surface reflectance, the aerosol model, and other processing steps have been adapted. The method's cross-platform applicability was tested by validating τa from NOAA-17 and NOAA-18 AVHRR at 15 AERONET sites in Central Europe (40.5° N–50° N, 0° E–17° E) from August 2005 to December 2007. Furthermore, the accuracy of the AVHRR retrieval was related to products from two newer instruments, the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) on board the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Aqua/Terra. Considering the linear correlation coefficient R, the AVHRR results were similar to those of MERIS with even lower root mean square error RMSE. Not surprisingly, MODIS, with its high spectral coverage, gave the highest R and lowest RMSE. Regarding monthly averaged τa, the results were ambiguous. Focusing on small-scale structures, R was reduced for all sensors, whereas the RMSE solely for MERIS substantially increased. Regarding larger areas like Central Europe, the error statistics were similar to the individual match-ups. This was mainly explained with sampling issues. With the successful validation of AVHRR we are now able to concentrate on our large data archive dating back to 1985. This is a unique opportunity for both climate and air pollution studies over land surfaces.

Formation of Phosphatidylethanol and Its Subsequent Elimination During an Extensive Drinking Experiment Over 5 Days

BACKGROUND: For almost 30 years, phosphatidylethanol (PEth) has been known as a direct marker of alcohol consumption. This marker stands for consumption in high amounts and for a longer time period, but it has been also detected after 1 high single intake of ethanol (EtOH). The aim of this study was to obtain further information about the formation and elimination of PEth 16:0/18:1 by simulating extensive drinking. METHODS: After 3 weeks of alcohol abstinence, 11 test persons drank an amount of EtOH leading to an estimated blood ethanol concentration of 1 g/kg on each of 5 successive days. After the drinking episode, they stayed abstinent for 16 days with regular blood sampling. PEth 16:0/18:1 analysis was performed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (high-performance liquid chromatography 1100 system and QTrap 2000 triple quadrupole linear ion trap mass spectrometer. Values of blood alcohol were obtained using a standardized method with headspace gas chromatography flame ionization detector. RESULTS: Maximum measured concentrations of EtOH were 0.99 to 1.83 g/kg (mean 1.32 g/kg). These values were reached 1 to 3 hours after the start of drinking (mean 1.9 hours). For comparison, 10 of 11 volunteers had detectable PEth 16:0/18:1 values 1 hour after the start of drinking, ranging from 45 to 138 ng/ml PEth 16:0/18:1. Over the following days, concentrations of PEth 16:0/18:1 increased continuously and reached the maximum concentrations of 74 to 237 ng/ml between days 3 and 6. CONCLUSIONS: This drinking experiment led to measurable PEth concentrations. However, PEth 16:0/18:1 concentrations stayed rather low compared with those of alcohol abusers from previous studies.

Impact of measurement errors on the determination of the linear modulus of human meniscal attachments

For the development of meniscal substitutes and related finite element models it is necessary to know the mechanical properties of the meniscus and its attachments. Measurement errors can falsify the determination of material properties. Therefore the impact of metrological and geometrical measurement errors on the determination of the linear modulus of human meniscal attachments was investigated. After total differentiation the error of the force (+0.10%), attachment deformation (−0.16%), and fibre length (+0.11%) measurements almost annulled each other. The error of the cross-sectional area determination ranged from 0.00%, gathered from histological slides, up to 14.22%, obtained from digital calliper measurements. Hence, total measurement error ranged from +0.05% to −14.17%, predominantly affected by the cross-sectional area determination error. Further investigations revealed that the entire cross-section was significantly larger compared to the load-carrying collagen fibre area. This overestimation of the cross-section area led to an underestimation of the linear modulus of up to −36.7%. Additionally, the cross-sections of the collagen-fibre area of the attachments significantly varied up to +90% along their longitudinal axis. The resultant ratio between the collagen fibre area and the histologically determined cross-sectional area ranged between 0.61 for the posterolateral and 0.69 for the posteromedial ligament. The linear modulus of human meniscal attachments can be significantly underestimated due to the use of different methods and locations of cross-sectional area determination. Hence, it is suggested to assess the load carrying collagen fibre area histologically, or, alternatively, to use the correction factors proposed in this study.

Tumor budding score based on 10 high-power fields is a promising basis for a standardized prognostic scoring system in stage II colorectal cancer

Tumor budding is recognized by the World Health Organization as an additional prognostic factor in colorectal cancer but remains unreported in diagnostic work due to the absence of a standardized scoring method. This study aims to assess the most prognostic and reproducible scoring systems for tumor budding in colorectal cancer. Tumor budding on pancytokeratin-stained whole tissue sections from 105 well-characterized stage II patients was scored by 3 observers using 7 methods: Hase, Nakamura, Ueno, Wang (conventional and rapid method), densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power fields. The predictive value for clinicopathologic features, the prognostic significance, and interobserver variability of each scoring method was analyzed. Pancytokeratin staining allowed accurate evaluation of tumor buds. Interobserver agreement for 3 observers was excellent for densest high-power field (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.83) and 10 densest high-power fields (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.91). Agreement was moderate to substantial for the conventional Wang method (κ = 0.46-0.62) and moderate for the rapid method (κ = 0.46-0.58). For Nakamura, moderate agreement (κ = 0.41-0.52) was reached, whereas concordance was fair to moderate for Ueno (κ = 0.39-0.56) and Hase (κ = 0.29-0.51). The Hase, Ueno, densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power field methods identified a significant association of tumor budding with tumor border configuration. In multivariate analysis, only tumor budding as evaluated in densest high-power field and 10 densest high-power fields had significant prognostic effects on patient survival (P < .01), with high prognostic accuracy over the full 10-year follow-up. Scoring tumor buds in 10 densest high-power fields is a promising method to identify stage II patients at high risk for recurrence in daily diagnostics; it is highly reproducible, accounts for heterogeneity, and has a strong predictive value for adverse outcome.

Association between symptoms and quality of life in patients with schizophrenia: a pooled analysis of changes over time

Quality of life is an important outcome in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia. It has been suggested that patients' quality of life ratings (referred to as subjective quality of life, SQOL) might be too heavily influenced by symptomatology to be a valid independent outcome criterion. There has been only limited evidence on the association of symptom change and changes in SQOL over time. This study aimed to examine the association between changes in symptoms and in SQOL among patients with schizophrenia. A pooled data set was obtained from eight longitudinal studies that had used the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) for measuring psychiatric symptoms and either the Lancashire Quality of Life Profile or the Manchester Short Assessment of Quality of Life for assessing SQOL. The sample comprised 886 patients with schizophrenia. After controlling for heterogeneity of findings across studies using linear mixed models, a reduction in psychiatric symptoms was associated with improvements in SQOL scores. In univariate analyses, changes in all BPRS subscales were associated with changes in SQOL scores. In a multivariate model, only associations between changes in the BPRS depression/anxiety and hostility subscales and changes in SQOL remained significant, with 5% and 0.5% of the variance in SQOL changes being attributable to changes in depression/anxiety and hostility respectively. All BPRS subscales together explained 8.5% of variance. The findings indicate that SQOL changes are influenced by symptom change, in particular in depression/anxiety. The level of influence is limited and may not compromise using SQOL as an independent outcome measure.

Stable virulence levels in the HIV epidemic of Switzerland over two decades

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the virulence of HIV-1 has been changing since its introduction into Switzerland. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study of HIV-1 infected individuals with well-characterized pre-therapy disease history. METHODS: To minimize the effect of recently imported viruses and ethnicity-associated host factors, the analysis was restricted to the white, north-west-European majority population of the cohort. Virulence was characterized by the decline slope of the CD4 cell count (n = 817 patients), the decline slope of the CD4:CD8 ratio (n = 815 patients) and the viral setpoint (n = 549 patients) in untreated patients with sufficient data points. Linear regression models were used to detect correlations between the date of diagnosis (ranging between 1984 and 2003) and the virulence markers, controlling for gender, exposure category, age and CD4 cell count at entry. RESULTS: We found no correlation between any of the virulence markers and the date of diagnosis. Inspection of short-term trends confirmed that virulence has fluctuated around a stable level over time. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of long-term time trends in the virulence markers indicates that HIV-1 is not evolving towards increasing or decreasing virulence at a perceptible rate. Both highly virulent and attenuated strains have apparently been unable to spread at the population level. This result suggests that either the evolution of virulence may be slow or inhibited due to evolutionary constraints, or HIV-1 may have already evolved to optimal virulence in the human host.

The long-term mechanical integrity of non-reinforced PEEK-OPTIMA polymer for demanding spinal applications: experimental and finite-element analysis

Polyetheretherketone (PEEK) is a novel polymer with potential advantages for its use in demanding orthopaedic applications (e.g. intervertebral cages). However, the influence of a physiological environment on the mechanical stability of PEEK has not been reported. Furthermore, the suitability of the polymer for use in highly stressed spinal implants such as intervertebral cages has not been investigated. Therefore, a combined experimental and analytical study was performed to address these open questions. A quasi-static mechanical compression test was performed to compare the initial mechanical properties of PEEK-OPTIMA polymer in a dry, room-temperature and in an aqueous, 37 degrees C environment (n=10 per group). The creep behaviour of cylindrical PEEK polymer specimens (n=6) was measured in a simulated physiological environment at an applied stress level of 10 MPa for a loading duration of 2000 hours (12 weeks). To compare the biomechanical performance of different intervertebral cage types made from PEEK and titanium under complex loading conditions, a three-dimensional finite element model of a functional spinal unit was created. The elastic modulus of PEEK polymer specimens in a physiological environment was 1.8% lower than that of specimens tested at dry, room temperature conditions (P<0.001). The results from the creep test showed an average creep strain of less than 0.1% after 2000 hours of loading. The finite element analysis demonstrated high strain and stress concentrations at the bone/implant interface, emphasizing the importance of cage geometry for load distribution. The stress and strain maxima in the implants were well below the material strength limits of PEEK. In summary, the experimental results verified the mechanical stability of the PEEK-OPTIMA polymer in a simulated physiological environment, and over extended loading periods. Finite element analysis supported the use of PEEK-OPTIMA for load-bearing intervertebral implants.

Tooth loss over five years

Objectives: To assess the ability to predict tooth loss on the basis of clinical and radiographic parameters. Methods: Clinical and radiographic data from a five year prospective cohort were studied to identify cause of progressive tooth loss in older subjects. Results: 363 subjects with a baseline mean age of 67.1 years (S.D. + 4.7, range : 60-75), and 51.4% women were studied including 59.5% never smokers, and 33.0% current smokers. At baseline the subjects had, on average, 22.4 teeth (S.D. + 6.4). Self-assessed tooth loss risk was identified by 16.0 % of subjects while 34% of subjects lost teeth. Tooth loss due to caries was found in 24.7% (178 teeth), periodontitis in 15.4% (133 teeth), peri-apical lesions 5.9% (32 teeth), combined periodontal/peri-apical in 3.4% (18 teeth), and teeth irrational to treat in 7.5% (58 teeth) of the subjects. 122 of the extracted teeth (34%) should have been possible to save but were extracted. At year five severe caries, periodontitis, peri-apical lesions, periodontal/peri-apical, irrational to treat were found in 6.3%, 7.2%, 2.6%, 4.6%, and 1.2% of subjects, respectively. Signs of osteoporosis increased by 11.2 % (Klemetti index). Linear regression analysis failed to include smoking habits as being explanatory. Explanatory factors were researcher prediction of extraction needs, subject self assessment of risk and change in ostoporosis status (r2 = 0.39, ANOVA, F=22.6, p< 0.001). Conclusions: Caries and periodontitis are primary causes for extraction. Progressive osteoporosis is associated with tooth loss. Radiographs, and subjects self-assessment of risk for tooth loss are robust predictors.

A Diagnostic Test for the Mixing Distribution in a Generalised Linear Mixed Model

We introduce a diagnostic test for the mixing distribution in a generalised linear mixed model. The test is based on the difference between the marginal maximum likelihood and conditional maximum likelihood estimates of a subset of the fixed effects in the model. We derive the asymptotic variance of this difference, and propose a test statistic that has a limiting chi-square distribution under the null hypothesis that the mixing distribution is correctly specified. For the important special case of the logistic regression model with random intercepts, we evaluate via simulation the power of the test in finite samples under several alternative distributional forms for the mixing distribution. We illustrate the method by applying it to data from a clinical trial investigating the effects of hormonal contraceptives in women.

Safety of Active Implantable Devices during MRI Examinations: A Finite Element Analysis of an Implantable Pump

The goal of this study was to propose a general numerical analysis methodology to evaluate the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-safety of active implants. Numerical models based on the finite element (FE) technique were used to estimate if the normal operation of an active device was altered during MRI imaging. An active implanted pump was chosen to illustrate the method. A set of controlled experiments were proposed and performed to validate the numerical model. The calculated induced voltages in the important electronic components of the device showed dependence with the MRI field strength. For the MRI radiofrequency fields, significant induced voltages of up to 20 V were calculated for a 0.3T field-strength MRI. For the 1.5 and 3.0T MRIs, the calculated voltages were insignificant. On the other hand, induced voltages up to 11 V were calculated in the critical electronic components for the 3.0T MRI due to the gradient fields. Values obtained in this work reflect to the worst case situation which is virtually impossible to achieve in normal scanning situations. Since the calculated voltages may be removed by appropriate protection circuits, no critical problems affecting the normal operation of the pump were identified. This study showed that the proposed methodology helps the identification of the possible incompatibilities between active implants and MR imaging, and can be used to aid the design of critical electronic systems to ensure MRI-safety