Does ‘better’ discounting lead to ‘worse’ outcomes in long-run decisions? The dilemma of hyperbolic discounting

The shortcomings of conventional discounting, especially in the context of long-run environmental problems, have been extensively discussed in the literature. Recently, hyperbolic discounting, i. e. discounting at declining instead of constant discount rates, has attracted a lot of interest among both scientists and politicians. Although there are compelling arguments for employing hyperbolic discounting, there are also pitfalls, which have to be pointed out. In this paper I show that the problem of time-inconsistency, an inherent characteristics of hyperbolic discounting, leads to a potential clash between economic efficiency and intergenerational equity. As an example, I refer to the weak progress in the controlling of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto protocol. As the problem of time-inconsistency cannot be solved on economic grounds alone, there is a need for an intergenerational moral commitment.

Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

Serial correlation of extreme midlatitude cyclones observed at the storm track exits is explained by deviations from a Poisson process. To model these deviations, we apply fractional Poisson processes (FPPs) to extreme midlatitude cyclones, which are defined by the 850 hPa relative vorticity of the ERA interim reanalysis during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Extremes are defined by a 99% quantile threshold in the grid-point time series. In general, FPPs are based on long-term memory and lead to non-exponential return time distributions. The return times are described by a Weibull distribution to approximate the Mittag–Leffler function in the FPPs. The Weibull shape parameter yields a dispersion parameter that agrees with results found for midlatitude cyclones. The memory of the FPP, which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis, provides an independent estimate for the shape parameter. Thus, the analysis exhibits a concise framework of the deviation from Poisson statistics (by a dispersion parameter), non-exponential return times and memory (correlation) on the basis of a single parameter. The results have potential implications for the predictability of extreme cyclones.

Reduction in Northward Incursions of the South Asian Monsoon Since ~1400 AD Inferred from a Mt. Everest Ice Core

A highly resolved Mt. Everest ice core reveals a decrease in marine and increase in continental air masses related to relatively high summer surface pressure over Mongolia, and reduction in northward incursions of the summer South Asian monsoon since similar to 1400 AD. Previously published proxy records from lower sites south of the Himalayas indicate strengthening of the monsoon since this time. These regional differences are consistent with a south north seesaw in convective activity in the Asian monsoon region, and reflect a southward shift in the mean summer position of the monsoon trough since similar to 1400 AD. The change in monsoonal circulation at 1400 AD is synchronous with a reduction in solar irradiance and the onset of the LIA. This demonstrates a hemispheric scale circulation reorganization at this time, and the potential for future large shifts in monsoonal circulation.

Sedimentary Metal Bioavailability Determined By the Digestive Constraints of Marine Deposit Feeders: Gut Retention Time and Dissolved Amino Acids

Contaminant metals bound to sediments are subject to considerable solubilization during passage of the sediments through the digestive systems of deposit feeders. We examined the kinetics of this process, using digestive fluids extracted from deposit feeders Arenicola marina and Parastichopus californicus and then incubated with contaminated sediments. Kinetics are complex, with solubilization followed occasionally by readsorption onto the sediment. In general, solubilization kinetics are biphasic, with an initial rapid step followed by a slower reaction. For many sediment-organism combinations, the reaction will not reach a steady state or equilibrium within the gut retention time (GRT) of the organisms, suggesting that metal bioavailability in sediments is a time-dependent parameter. Experiments with commercial protein solutions mimic the kinetic patterns observed with digestive fluids, which corroborates our previous study that complexation by dissolved amino acids (AA) in digestive fluids leads to metal solubilization (Chen & Mayer 1998b; Environ Sci Technol 32:770-778). The relative importance of the fast and slow reactions appears to depend on the ratio of ligands in gut fluids to the amount of bound metal in sediments. High ligand to solid metal ratios result in more metals released in fast reactions and thus higher lability of sedimentary metals. Multiple extractions of a sediment with digestive fluid of A. marina confirm the potential importance of incomplete reactions within a single deposit-feeding event, and make clear that bioavailability to a single animal is Likely different from that to a community of organisms. The complex kinetic patterns lead to the counterintuitive prediction that toxification of digestive enzymes by solubilized metals will occur more readily in species that dissolve less metals.

Studying changes in life circumstances and personality: It's about time

Most theories of personality development posit that changes in life circumstances (e.g. due to major life events) can lead to changes in personality, but few studies have examined the exact time course of these changes. In this article, we argue that time needs to be considered explicitly in theories and empirical studies on personality development. We discuss six notions on the role of time in personality development. First, people can differ before the event. Second, change can be non-linear and discontinuous. Third, change can be reversible. Fourth, change can occur before the event. Fifth, control groups are needed to disentangle age-related and event-related changes. Sixth, we need to move beyond examining single major life events and study the effects of non-normative events, non-events, multiple events, and minor events on personality. We conclude by summarizing the methodological and theoretical implications of these notions.

Head Reduction Osteotomy With Additional Containment Surgery Improves Sphericity and Containment and Reduces Pain in Legg-Calvé-Perthes Disease.

BACKGROUND Severe femoral head deformities in the frontal plane such as hips with Legg-Calvé-Perthes disease (LCPD) are not contained by the acetabulum and result in hinged abduction and impingement. These rare deformities cannot be addressed by resection, which would endanger head vascularity. Femoral head reduction osteotomy allows for reshaping of the femoral head with the goal of improving head sphericity, containment, and hip function. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES Among hips with severe asphericity of the femoral head, does femoral head reduction osteotomy result in (1) improved head sphericity and containment; (2) pain relief and improved hip function; and (3) subsequent reoperations or complications? METHODS Over a 10-year period, we performed femoral head reduction osteotomies in 11 patients (11 hips) with severe head asphericities resulting from LCPD (10 hips) or disturbance of epiphyseal perfusion after conservative treatment of developmental dysplasia (one hip). Five of 11 hips had concomitant acetabular containment surgery including two triple osteotomies, two periacetabular osteotomies (PAOs), and one Colonna procedure. Patients were reviewed at a mean of 5 years (range, 1-10 years), and none was lost to followup. Mean patient age at the time of head reduction osteotomy was 13 years (range, 7-23 years). We obtained the sphericity index (defined as the ratio of the minor to the major axis of the ellipse drawn to best fit the femoral head articular surface on conventional anteroposterior pelvic radiographs) to assess head sphericity. Containment was assessed evaluating the proportion of patients with an intact Shenton's line, the extrusion index, and the lateral center-edge (LCE) angle. Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score and range of motion (flexion, internal/external rotation in 90° of flexion) were assessed to measure pain and function. Complications and reoperations were identified by chart review. RESULTS At latest followup, femoral head sphericity (72%; range, 64%-81% preoperatively versus 85%; range, 73%-96% postoperatively; p = 0.004), extrusion index (47%; range, 25%-60% versus 20%; range, 3%-58%; p = 0.006), and LCE angle (1°; range, -10° to 16° versus 26°; range, 4°-40°; p = 0.0064) were improved compared with preoperatively. With the limited number of hips available, the proportion of an intact Shenton's line (64% versus 100%; p = 0.087) and the overall Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score (14.5; range, 12-16 versus 15.7; range, 12-18; p = 0.072) remained unchanged at latest followup. The Merle d'Aubigné-Postel pain subscore improved (3.5; range, 1-5 versus 5.0; range, 3-6; p = 0.026). Range of motion was not observed to have improved with the numbers available (p ranging from 0.513 to 0.778). In addition to hardware removal in two hips, subsequent surgery was performed in five of 11 hips to improve containment after a mean interval of 2.3 years (range, 0.2-7.5 years). Of those, two hips had triple osteotomy, one hip a combined triple and valgus intertrochanteric osteotomy, one hip an intertrochanteric varus osteotomy, and one hip a PAO with a separate valgus intertrochanteric osteotomy. No avascular necrosis of the femoral head occurred. CONCLUSIONS Femoral head reduction osteotomy can improve femoral head sphericity. Improved head containment in these hips with an often dysplastic acetabulum requires additional acetabular containment surgery, ideally performed concomitantly. This can result in reduced pain and avascular necrosis seems to be rare. With the number of patients available, function did not improve. Therefore, future studies should use more precise instruments to evaluate clinical outcome and include longer followup to confirm joint preservation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Level IV, therapeutic study.

Effects of a latency period between pre-stimulation and teat cup attachment and periodic vacuum reduction on milking characteristics and teat condition in dairy cows

The goal of the present study was to examine the suitability of a short pre-stimulation (P) for 15 s followed by a latency period (L) of 30 s before cluster attachment for machine milking. In addition we tested the effect of a periodic reduction of the vacuum under the teat (VR) during the massage phase from 43 kPa to 12-15 kPa on milking characteristics and teat tissue condition. The study was carried out in 9 cows in a cross-over design. Animals were milked twice daily, and each of the 4 treatment combinations was used for six subsequent milkings (P+L vs. continuous P, and standard pulsation vs. VR, respectively). Milk flow was recorded during all experimental milkings. Longitudinal ultrasound cross sections of the teat were performed by B-mode ultrasound after the last milking of each treatment at 0, 5, and 15 min after the end of milking, respectively. None of the evaluated milking characteristics (total milk yield, main milking time, peak flow rate, average milk flow) differed between treatments. Teat measures as obtained by ultrasound cross sections showed no significant difference if individual treatments were compared at the three time points individually. However, teat wall thickness (TWT) tended to be smaller in VR vs. non-VR treatments at 5 min after milking (P=0·05). In conclusion, teat preparation consisting of a short stimulation followed by a latency period represents a similarly efficient pre-stimulation as a continuous pre-stimulation. VR seems to reduce the load on the teat tissue during milking and thus reduces the development of oedema and hence a less pronounced increase of TWT while milking characteristics are similar with or without VR.

Evaluation of treatment response after chemoembolisation (TACE) in hepatocellular carcinoma using real time image fusion of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and computed tomography (CT)--preliminary results.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate treatment response of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) with a new real-time imaging fusion technique of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) with multi-slice detection computed tomography (CT) in comparison to conventional post-interventional follow-up. MATERIAL AND METHODS 40 patients with HCC (26 male, ages 46-81 years) were evaluated 24 hours after TACE using CEUS with ultrasound volume navigation and image fusion with CT compared to non-enhanced CT and follow-up contrast-enhanced CT after 6-8 weeks. Reduction of tumor vascularization to less than 25% was regarded as "successful" treatment, whereas reduction to levels >25% was considered as "partial" treatment response. Homogenous lipiodol retention was regarded as successful treatment in non-enhanced CT. RESULTS Post-interventional image fusion of CEUS with CT was feasible in all 40 patients. In 24 patients (24/40), post-interventional image fusion with CEUS revealed residual tumor vascularity, that was confirmed by contrast-enhanced CT 6-8 weeks later in 24/24 patients. In 16 patients (16/40), post-interventional image fusion with CEUS demonstrated successful treatment, but follow-up CT detected residual viable tumor (6/16). Non-enhanced CT did not identify any case of treatment failure. Image fusion with CEUS assessed treatment efficacy with a specificity of 100%, sensitivity of 80% and a positive predictive value of 1 (negative predictive value 0.63). CONCLUSIONS Image fusion of CEUS with CT allows a reliable, highly specific post-interventional evaluation of embolization response with good sensitivity without any further radiation exposure. It can detect residual viable tumor at early state, resulting in a close patient monitoring or re-therapy.

Displaced supracondylar humeral fractures: influence of delay of surgery on the incidence of open reduction, complications and outcome.

BACKGROUND Closed reduction and pinning is the accepted treatment choice for dislocated supracondylar humeral fractures in children (SCHF). Rates of open reduction, complications and outcome are reported to be dependent on delay of surgery. We investigated whether delay of surgery had influence on the incidence of open reduction, complications and outcome of surgical treatment of SCHFs in the authors' institution. METHODS Three hundred and forty-one children with 343 supracondylar humeral fractures (Gartland II: 144; Gartland III: 199) who underwent surgery between 2000 and 2009 were retrospectively analysed. The group consisted of 194 males and 149 females. The average age was 6.3 years. Mean follow-up was 6.2 months. Time interval between trauma and surgical intervention was determined using our institutional database. Clinical and radiographical data were collected for each group. Influence of delay of treatment on rates of open reduction, complications and outcome was calculated using logistic regression analysis. Furthermore, patients were grouped into 4 groups of delay (<6 h, n = 166; 6-12 h, n = 95; 12-24 h, n = 68; >24 h, n = 14) and the aforementioned variables were compared among these groups. RESULTS The incidence of open procedures in 343 supracondylar humeral fractures was 2.6 %. Complication rates were similar to the literature (10.8 %) primarily consisting of transient neurological impairments (9.0 %) which all were fully reversible by conservative treatment. Poor outcome was seen in 1.7 % of the patients. Delay of surgical treatment had no influence on rates of open surgery (p = 0.662), complications (p = 0.365) or poor outcome (p = 0.942). CONCLUSIONS In this retrospective study delay of treatment of SCHF did not have significant influence on the incidence of open reduction, complications, and outcome. Therefore, in SCHF with sufficient blood perfusion and nerve function, elective treatment is reasonable to avoid surgical interventions in the middle of the night which are stressful and wearing both for patients and for surgeons. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE III (retrospective comparative study).

A New Approach for Automatic Removal of Movement Artifacts in Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Time Series by Means of Acceleration Data

Abstract: Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) enables the non-invasive measurement of changes in hemodynamics and oxygenation in tissue. Changes in light-coupling due to movement of the subject can cause movement artifacts (MAs) in the recorded signals. Several methods have been developed so far that facilitate the detection and reduction of MAs in the data. However, due to fixed parameter values (e.g., global threshold) none of these methods are perfectly suitable for long-term (i.e., hours) recordings or were not time-effective when applied to large datasets. We aimed to overcome these limitations by automation, i.e., data adaptive thresholding specifically designed for long-term measurements, and by introducing a stable long-term signal reconstruction. Our new technique (“acceleration-based movement artifact reduction algorithm”, AMARA) is based on combining two methods: the “movement artifact reduction algorithm” (MARA, Scholkmann et al. Phys. Meas. 2010, 31, 649–662), and the “accelerometer-based motion artifact removal” (ABAMAR, Virtanen et al. J. Biomed. Opt. 2011, 16, 087005). We describe AMARA in detail and report about successful validation of the algorithm using empirical NIRS data, measured over the prefrontal cortex in adolescents during sleep. In addition, we compared the performance of AMARA to that of MARA and ABAMAR based on validation data.

Radiation dose reduction in postoperative computed position control of cochlear implant electrodes in lambs - An experimental study

OBJECTIVE Cochlear implants (CI) are standard treatment for prelingually deafened children and postlingually deafened adults. Computed tomography (CT) is the standard method for postoperative imaging of the electrode position. CT scans accurately reflect electrode depth and position, which is essential prior to use. However, routine CT examinations expose patients to radiation, which is especially problematic in children. We examined whether new CT protocols could reduce radiation doses while preserving diagnostic accuracy. METHODS To investigate whether electrode position can be assessed by low-dose CT protocols, a cadaveric lamb model was used because the inner ear morphology is similar to humans. The scans were performed at various volumetric CT dose-indexes CTDIvol)/kV combinations. For each constant CTDIvol the tube voltage was varied (i.e., 80, 100, 120 and 140kV). This procedure was repeated at different CTDIvol values (21mGy, 11mGy, 5.5mGy, 2.8mGy and 1.8mGy). To keep the CTDIvol constant at different tube voltages, the tube current values were adjusted. Independent evaluations of the images were performed by two experienced and blinded neuroradiologists. The criteria diagnostic usefulness, image quality and artifacts (scaled 1-4) were assessed in 14 cochlear-implanted cadaveric lamb heads with variable tube voltages. RESULTS Results showed that the standard CT dose could be substantially reduced without sacrificing diagnostic accuracy of electrode position. The assessment of the CI electrode position was feasible in almost all cases up to a CTDIvol of 2-3mGy. The number of artifacts did not increase for images within this dose range as compared to higher dosages. The extent of the artifacts caused by the implanted metal-containing CI electrode does not depend on the radiation dose and is not perceptibly influenced by changes in the tube voltage. Summarizing the evaluation of the CI electrode position is possible even at a very low radiation dose. CONCLUSIONS CT imaging of the temporal bone for postoperative electrode position control of the CI is possible with a very low and significantly radiation dose. The tube current-time product and voltage can be reduced by 50% without increasing artifacts. Low-dose postoperative CT scans are sufficient for localizing the CI electrode.

Towards clinical computed ultrasound tomography in echo-mode: Dynamic range artefact reduction

Computed ultrasound tomography in echo-mode (CUTE) allows imaging the speed of sound inside tissue using hand-held pulse-echo ultrasound. This technique is based on measuring the changing local phase of beamformed echoes when changing the transmit beam steering angle. Phantom results have shown a spatial resolution and contrast that could qualify CUTE as a promising novel diagnostic modality in combination with B-mode ultrasound. Unfortunately, the large intensity range of several tens of dB that is encountered in clinical images poses difficulties to echo phase tracking and results in severe artefacts. In this paper we propose a modification to the original technique by which more robust echo tracking can be achieved, and we demonstrate in phantom experiments that dynamic range artefacts are largely eliminated. Dynamic range artefact reduction also allowed for the first time a clinical implementation of CUTE with sufficient contrast to reproducibly distinguish the different speed of sound in different tissue layers of the abdominal wall and the neck.

Transition from adolescence to adulthood in congenital heart disease - Many roads lead to Rome

More than 90% of children born with heart defects reach adulthood. They continue to require specialized medical care. In most countries, their care has to be transferred from the pediatric care environment to specialized adult clinics. This transfer of care usually occurs at a time when adolescents become young adults. Supporting adolescents and emerging adults with congenital heart disease through transition has been recognized as an important task of their treating teams in recent years. An environment where adolescents feel welcome and where education and patient participation are fostered is crucial. For an optimal transition process, patients, their families and all health care providers need to be involved. Different models for transition programs have emerged, depending on local policies and resources. The authors offer insight into established transition programs in Bern and Zurich, Switzerland. Advantages and challenges of different models of care and transition programs are presented.

Long-term evaluation of Class II subdivision treatment with unilateral maxillary first molar extraction

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the long-term effects of asymmetrical maxillary first molar (M1) extraction in Class II subdivision treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS Records of 20 Class II subdivision whites (7 boys, 13 girls; mean age, 13.0 years; SD, 1.7 years) consecutively treated with the Begg technique and M1 extraction, and 15 untreated asymmetrical Class II adolescents (4 boys, 11 girls; mean age, 12.2 years; SD, 1.3 years) were examined in this study. Cephalometric analysis and PAR assessment were carried out before treatment (T1), after treatment (T2), and on average 2.5 years posttreatment (T3) for the treatment group, and at similar time points and average follow-up of 1.8 years for the controls. RESULTS The adjusted analysis indicated that the maxillary incisors were 2.3 mm more retracted in relation to A-Pog between T1 and T3 (β  =  2.31; 95% CI; 0.76, 3.87), whereas the mandibular incisors were 1.3 mm more protracted (β  =  1.34; 95% CI; 0.09, 2.59), and 5.9° more proclined to the mandibular plane (β  =  5.92; 95% CI; 1.43, 10.41) compared with controls. The lower lip appeared 1.4 mm more protrusive relative to the subnasale-soft tissue-Pog line throughout the observation period in the treated adolescents (β  =  1.43; 95% CI; 0.18, 2.67). There was a significant PAR score reduction over the entire follow-up period in the molar extraction group (β  =  -6.73; 95% CI; -10.7, -2.7). At T2, 65% of the subjects had maxillary midlines perfectly aligned with the face. CONCLUSIONS Unilateral M1 extraction in asymmetrical Class II cases may lead to favorable occlusal outcomes in the long term without harming the midline esthetics and soft tissue profile.

Radiation dose in pneumatic reduction of ileo-colic intussusceptions--results from a single-institution study

BACKGROUND Air enema under fluoroscopy is a well-accepted procedure for the treatment of childhood intussusception. However, the reported radiation doses of pneumatic reduction with conventional fluoroscopy units have been high in decades past. OBJECTIVE To compare current radiation doses at our institution to past doses reported by others for fluoroscopic-guided pneumatic reduction of ileo-colic intussusception in children. MATERIALS AND METHODS Since 2007 radiologists and residents in our department who perform reduction of intussusceptions have received a radiation risk training. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 45 children (5 months-8 years) who underwent a total of 48 pneumatic reductions of ileo-colic intussusception between 2008 and 2012. We analyzed data for screening time and dose area product (DAP) and compared these data to those reported up to and including the year 2000. RESULTS Our mean screening time measured by the DAP-meter was 53.8 s (range 1-320 s, median 33.0 s). The mean DAP was 11.4 cGy ∙ cm(2) (range 1-145 cGy ∙ cm(2), median 5.45 cGy ∙ cm(2)). There was one bowel perforation, in a 1-year-old boy requiring surgical revision. Only three studies in the literature presented radiation exposure results on children who received pneumatic or hydrostatic reduction of intussusception under fluoroscopy. Screening times and dose area products in those studies, which were published in the 1990 s and in the year 2000, were substantially higher than those in our sample. CONCLUSION Low-frequency pulsed fluoroscopy and other dose-saving keys as well as the radiation risk training might have helped to improve the quality of the procedure in terms of radiation exposure.