Optimal Abandonment of Coal-Fired Stations in the EU

36 p.

Valuation of wind energy projects: A real options approach

27 p.

Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies

23 p.

Evaluation of Two Alternative Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies: A Stochastic Model

30 p.

The equivalent conductance of solutions of picric acid

Picric acid possesses the property, which is rare among strong electrolytes, of having a convenient distribution ratio between water and certain organic solvents such as benzene, chloroform, etc. Because of this property, picric acid offers peculiar advantages for studying the well known deviations of strong electrolytes from the law of mass action, for; by means of distribution experiments, the activities of picric acid in various aqueous solutions may be compared.

In order to interpret the results of such distribution experiments, it is necessary to know the degree of ionization of picric acid in aqueous solutions.

At least three series of determinations of the equivalent conductance of picric acid have been published, but the results are not concordant; and therefore, the degree of ionization cannot be calculated with any degree of certainty.

The object of the present investigation was to redetermine the conductance of picric acid solutions in order to obtain satisfactory data from which the degrees of ionization of its solutions might be calculated.

Incremental Control Synthesis for Robotics in the Presence of Temporal Logic Specifications

This thesis presents methods for incrementally constructing controllers in the presence of uncertainty and nonlinear dynamics. The basic setting is motion planning subject to temporal logic specifications. Broadly, two categories of problems are treated. The first is reactive formal synthesis when so-called discrete abstractions are available. The fragment of linear-time temporal logic (LTL) known as GR(1) is used to express assumptions about an adversarial environment and requirements of the controller. Two problems of changes to a specification are posed that concern the two major aspects of GR(1): safety and liveness. Algorithms providing incremental updates to strategies are presented as solutions. In support of these, an annotation of strategies is developed that facilitates repeated modifications. A variety of properties are proven about it, including necessity of existence and sufficiency for a strategy to be winning. The second category of problems considered is non-reactive (open-loop) synthesis in the absence of a discrete abstraction. Instead, the presented stochastic optimization methods directly construct a control input sequence that achieves low cost and satisfies a LTL formula. Several relaxations are considered as heuristics to address the rarity of sampling trajectories that satisfy an LTL formula and demonstrated to improve convergence rates for Dubins car and single-integrators subject to a recurrence task.

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC), and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC) price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

Using productivity and susceptibility indices to assess the vulnerability of United States fish stocks to overfishing

Assessing the vulnerability of stocks to fishing practices in U.S. federal waters was recently highlighted by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as an important factor to consider when 1) identifying stocks that should be managed and protected under a fishery management plan; 2) grouping data-poor stocks into relevant management complexes; and 3) developing precautionary harvest control rules. To assist the regional fishery management councils in determining vulnerability, NMFS elected to use a modified version of a productivity and susceptibility analysis (PSA) because it can be based on qualitative data, has a history of use in other fisheries, and is recommended by several organizations as a reasonable approach for evaluating risk. A number of productivity and susceptibility attributes for a stock are used in a PSA and from these attributes, index scores and measures of uncertainty are computed and graphically displayed. To demonstrate the utility of the resulting vulnerability evaluation, we evaluated six U.S. fisheries targeting 162 stocks that exhibited varying degrees of productivity and susceptibility, and for which data quality varied. Overall, the PSA was capable of differentiating the vulnerability of stocks along the gradient of susceptibility and productivity indices, although fixed thresholds separating low-, moderate-, and highly vulnerable species were not observed. The PSA can be used as a flexible tool that can incorporate regional-specific information on fishery and management activity.

Training in fisheries planning and management: the case of the Southern African Development Community nations

This paper presents an evaluation of the 15-week course on Training in Fisheries Planning and Management being offered at the University of Namibia since 1991. This course includes instruction in fisheries technology, fisheries biology, fisheries law and law of the sea, fisheries economics, fisheries sociology, environment impact assessment, planning and management, the logical framework approach to planning and computer literacy. The participats in the course have rated the various elements in a range of 2.9 to 4.7 out of a maximum of 5 points.

Increasing the design strength of glass – fractography and stress testing

Brittleness is the unintended, but inevitable consequence of producing a transparent ceramic for architectural applications such as the soda-lime glass. Its tensile strength is particularly sensitive to surface imperfections, such as that from natural weathering and malicious damage. Although a significant amount of testing of new glass has been carried out, there has been surprisingly little testing on weathered glass. Due to the variable nature of the causes of surface damage, the lack of data on weathered glass leads to a considerable degree of uncertainty in the long-term strength of exposed glass. This paper presents the results of recent tests on weathered annealed glass which has been exposed to natural weathering for more than 20 years. The tests include experimental investigations using the co-axial ring setup as well as optical and atomic force microscopy of the glass surfaces. The experimental data from these tests is subsequently used to extend existing fracture mechanics-based models to predict the strength of weathered glass. It is shown that using an automated approach based directly on finite element analysis results can give an increase in effective design strength in the order of 70 to 100% when compared to maximum stress methods. It is also shown that by combining microscopy and strength test results, it is possible to quantitatively characterise the damage on glass surfaces.

Boundary effects on the vibration statistics of a random plate

This paper considers the estimation of statistics of displacement of a vibrating rectangular plate with random wave scatterers. The influence of uncertainty is investigated using point impedance theory. Coherent boundary effects are seen, which decrease when the number of scatterers increases. The boundary effect is investigated using images and the first side and corner reflections are found to be a minimum requirement to estimate the spatial correlation. Statistics for point driven response are investigated under the assumption that the statistics of the natural frequencies follow those of the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE). The estimates are compared with Monte Carlo simulation results, and they show good agreement. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The vibro-acoustic analysis of built-up systems using a hybrid method with parametric and non-parametric uncertainties

An existing hybrid finite element (FE)/statistical energy analysis (SEA) approach to the analysis of the mid- and high frequency vibrations of a complex built-up system is extended here to a wider class of uncertainty modeling. In the original approach, the constituent parts of the system are considered to be either deterministic, and modeled using FE, or highly random, and modeled using SEA. A non-parametric model of randomness is employed in the SEA components, based on diffuse wave theory and the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE), and this enables the mean and variance of second order quantities such as vibrational energy and response cross-spectra to be predicted. In the present work the assumption that the FE components are deterministic is relaxed by the introduction of a parametric model of uncertainty in these components. The parametric uncertainty may be modeled either probabilistically, or by using a non-probabilistic approach such as interval analysis, and it is shown how these descriptions can be combined with the non-parametric uncertainty in the SEA subsystems to yield an overall assessment of the performance of the system. The method is illustrated by application to an example built-up plate system which has random properties, and benchmark comparisons are made with full Monte Carlo simulations. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of lattice vibration on the effective mass of quasi-two-dimensional strong-coupling polaron

The effects of lattice vibration on the system in which the electron is weakly coupled with bulk longitudinal optical phonons and strongly coupled with interface optical phonons in an infinite quantum well were studied by using Tokuda' linear-combination operator and a modified LLP variational method. The expressions for the effective mass of the polaron in a quantum well QW as functions of the well's width and temperature were derived. In particular, the law of the change of the vibration frequency of the polaron changing with well' s width and temperature are obtained. Numerical results of the effective mass and the vibration frequency of the polaron for KI/AgCl/Kl QW show that the vibration frequency and the effective mass of the polaron decrease with increasing well's width and temperature, but the contribution of the interaction between the electron and the different branches of phonons to the effective mass and the vibration frequency and the change of their variation with the well's width and temperature are greatly different.

Experimental observation of negative lateral displacements of microwave beams transmitting through dielectric slabs

It was theoretically predicted that when a beam of light travels through a thin slab of optically denser medium in the air, the emerging beam from the slab will suffer a lateral displacement that is different from the prediction of geometrical optics, that is, the Snell's law of refraction and can be zero and negative as well as positive. These phenomena have been directly observed in microwave experiments in which large angles of incidence are chosen for the purpose of obtaining negative lateral displacements. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Negative lateral shift of a light beam transmitted through a dielectric slab and interaction of boundary effects

It is found that when a light beam travels through a slab of optically denser dielectric medium in air, the lateral shift of the transmitted beam can be negative. This is a novel phenomenon that is reversed in comparison with the geometrical optic prediction according to Snell's law of refraction. A Gaussian-shaped beam is analyzed in the paraxial approximation, and a comparison with numerical simulations is made. Finally, an explanation for the negativity of the lateral shift is suggested, in terms of the interaction of boundary effects of the slab's two interfaces with air.